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The Twins are roughly one-third of the way through their Grapefruit League schedule, and to this point we have seen Louis Varland make four appearances. It’s not overly notable that all of those have come in relief, but an interesting trend has emerged in the box scores (listed chronologically):
Not only has Varland been limited to one-inning outings, but his pitch count has been kept “suspiciously” low, as well. If he was being stretched out as a starter, or even a multi-inning reliever, he assuredly would need to be on the mound for more than an inning or a dozen pitches at a time.
With just four innings under his belt and only the first two frames taking place in a stadium with publicly accessible Statcast technology, it remains to be seen how this will impact his velocity and pitch mix. As it stands right now, his velocity and spin rates are roughly the same as his 2024 numbers, although I would expect that to change as the sample grows and the season ramps up. Regardless, in 29 ⅓ regular season innings as a reliever, his analytics suggest this is the right move. Across 16 appearances, he’s carried a 25.6% K-BB rate and a 3.54 FIP, which is nearly two runs better than as a starter.
So why can’t we make this unofficial announcement official? Well, Rocco Baldelli is still claiming that they have yet to label Varland's role for the season. On Mar. 1, in a scrum with reporters following the spring training tilt against the Boston Red Sox (Varland’s third appearance), the Twins skipper said:
“I don’t remember or recall backfield outings where [Varland is] being stretched out at the moment. He’s going to throw some multi-inning appearances this spring, no matter what we end up landing on for him. But getting a chance to see him throw an inning, kind of a revved-up inning, let him come in from the pen doing that gets him the work we’re looking for from him right now.
We’re still waiting to see those “multi-inning appearances” and, in his defense, the spring training season is still relatively young. That said, despite not formally giving Varland a label, it’s getting harder to ignore what the box scores are telling us—in addition to the success he’s experienced as a reliever. So, if we are reading the tea leaves correctly, what impact will this have on the major-league roster.
Entering spring training, I hypothesized that the Twins would carry eight relievers, and that only two of those spots were really open. Initially, I had Michael Tonkin as a lock to make the Opening Day roster, but I’m less confident in that given his spring. I am swapping him out for Varland as a lock—which means, if our conjecture ends up being true, we’re still at two spots for a few different arms. We know who’s at the top of the pecking order, so the last two spots likely come down to Jorge Alcalá, Justin Topa, Tonkin, or Eiberson Castellano.
Alcalá has mostly proven to be a good reliever when he’s healthy. Take out the month of August last season, and he was one of the more reliable and productive members of the Twins bullpen. He’s been used sparingly this spring, but one interesting thing to note is that he is only eight days away from reaching five years of service, whereupon he would need to agree to be optioned to Triple-A St. Paul.
Topa is another effective reliever, when healthy, but his 2024 season was basically a loss, and he's now 34 years old. Like Alcalá, he’s only thrown two innings this spring, but unlike Alcalá, his appearances have been a bit messy. He's given up four hits and an earned run, while striking out two. Despite his age, he’s accrued far less service time than Alcalá and could be optioned at any point this season.
Tonkin bounced around quite a bit last year, but ended the season as one of the more reliable arms for the Twins, which says more about the team’s performance than it does about him. He’s had an unfortunate spring, giving up eight base runners and four earned runs across 2 ⅔ innings. He’s out of options, though, and if he doesn’t crack the Opening Day roster, he would likely be lost to waivers. The best argument for keeping him is that he's the rubber arm in the group. In a pen full of pitchers with some notable injury histories, Tonkin offers durability.
Castellano has gone three innings across two appearances, including a rough two-inning outing against the Pittsburgh Pirates on Feb. 28. Of course, being a Rule 5 Draft selection means that the Twins have to carry him on their active roster or offer him back to the Philadelphia Phillies. Theoretically, they could try and swing a trade with the Phillies to keep him in the organization, but rumors suggest they tried to trade for him ahead of the Rule 5 Draft to no avail.
I think the Twins need to be strategic with how they handle the last spot in the bullpen; there is a way to do this without losing any arms. The season is a marathon, not a sprint, so I think it’s okay if they don't deploy the best 26 players in the organization on Opening Day, especially when it comes to the bullpen. Regardless of how his spring turns out, I like the long-term outlook for Castellano, and think he should be carried on the active roster for the entirety of the 2025 season. While I don’t think Tonkin is the best arm between Topa and Alcalá (in fact, he might be the worst), he’s the only one who cannot be optioned to Triple-A. Thus, I would pencil him in at the bottom of the bullpen totem pole. Strategically, I’m taking advantage of the eight days Alcalá has left to be freely optioned, and I'm also starting Topa with the Saints.
Again, this isn’t about having the best 26-man roster possible, but instead hoarding the most valuable resource in baseball. You can never have enough pitching, and when injury or poor performance strikes, the Twins would be in a really good spot if they had multiple arms in St. Paul at the ready. The plan for the bullpen is more about winning the marathon and keeping as many MLB-ready arms in the organization as possible.
What does your Opening Day bullpen look like? Join the conversation in the comments!
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