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Derek Falvey and the Twins front office have been busy the last couple of weeks, locking down a lefty reliever (Danny Coulombe), a fourth outfielder (Harrison Bader), and a right-handed hitter with experience at first base (Ty France). With those players virtually guaranteed to make the team out of camp, we no longer have to wonder if Edouard Julien or Willi Castro will get more reps at first base. We no longer have to wonder whom Rocco Baldelli will deploy when the need for a left-handed reliever arises. We don't have to guess about what happens when Byron Buxton gets hurt, or when Matt Wallner or Trevor Larnach are set to face a southpaw in a high-leverage situation. Those questions have been answered by the flurry of signings. So what questions remain?
Four Starters for Two Rotation Spots
The four players in line to compete for the fourth and fifth spots in the rotation are: Chris Paddack, Simeon Woods Richardson, David Festa, and Zebby Matthews. Barring a Paddack trade, he’s a lock to make the Opening Day roster, since the Twins are paying him $7.25 million this year.
That leaves three young guns for the fifth and final rotation spot, and you have to imagine that Woods Richardson is the heavy favorite of the group. Yes, he ran out of steam in his first big-league season (wherein he set a career high in innings pitched), but you can’t ignore that he carried a sub-4.00 ERA into the final month of the season with a solid 13.1% K-BB rate. Barring injury (or a trade), I would put a lot of money on Festa and Matthews headlining the Triple-A St. Paul Saints rotation to start the season. The silver lining here is that the Twins are well positioned if (more like when) injuries strike the major-league rotation, with some of the best young pitchers in baseball ready to play the role of “next man up.”
A Cluster of Relievers for Two (ish?) Bullpen Spots
It’s hard to know exactly how many bullpen spots are open, given the number of cheap, “flier”-type arms the Twins have at the bottom of their bullpen hierarchy. If we operate under the assumption that they will carry eight relievers and that six of those spots are spoken for (Jhoan Durán, Griffin Jax, Cole Sands, Brock Stewart, Michael Tonkin and Coulombe), then we have two spots for roughly five arms. Depending on Stewart’s recovery timeline from arthroscopic shoulder surgery last August, a third open spot could temporarily open up for the start of the season. Regardless of how many jobs are open, though, the five competitors are: Jorge Alcalá, Justin Topa, Louie Varland, Kody Funderburk, and Rule 5 Draft pick Eiberson Castellano.
Of those names, Castellano has the most at stake. If he does not make the active roster, he will have to be offered back to the Phillies. Alcalá can be optioned at the start of the season, but once he accrues just eight more days of service time, he'll no longer be optionable, as he'll reach the threshold of five years' service. At that point, the rules protect players from being optioned, so teams can't artificially delay free agency at the end of their window of team control. That makes his fight for a spot fairly high-stakes, too.
There aren’t any special circumstances following the remaining three pitchers on the list, as each have at least one option remaining and is relatively cheap. Topa is set to make the most money, at $1 million, and represents one of two chances (Gabriel Gonzalez being the other) the Twins have at getting anything from the Jorge Polanco trade. Funderburk is the only other lefty reliever on the Twins 26- or 40-man roster, after they lost southpaw swingman Brent Headrick on waivers Tuesday. Varland will be in a relatively new role, as he looks to be the Twins' latest failed starter who flourishes in a relief role.
The Twins obviously saw something in Castellano to make him their first Rule 5 Draft pick since Tyler Kinley in 2017, so I think they’ll give him every opportunity to make the club out of camp. I feel the same way about Michael Tonkin, given that they likely lose him if he is waived. If Stewart isn’t ready for Opening Day (or if one of the other two don’t make it), then you’re likely looking at Topa or Funderburk as the “first two out”. I feel pretty strongly that Varland will (and should) start the year in Triple-A St. Paul to grow into his newfound role as a reliever.
The Battle for the Keystone
The battle for second base may not be resolved by the time spring training is over. Heck, it may never be truly “resolved” in 2025; there could be a merry-go-round, just like last season. Barring a trade, Willi Castro will be on the Twins' Opening Day roster. He played nearly 300 innings at the Keystone in 2024. It’s likely that at least one of Brooks Lee, Austin Martin, and Julien end up starting the year in Triple-A St. Paul. Whoever remains on the roster will likely be used in more of a utility role around the infield, making spot starts at second base when Castro is playing one of the other five positions he’s played in the past. If I absolutely had to make a guess now, I like Martin to make the club, given his versatility. After him, I really think it largely depends on spring training performance to see which of Julien and Lee make the cut. For what it’s worth, FanGraphs's Roster Resource currently projects Lee as the starting second baseman; Julien on the bench; and Martin with the Saints.
The Twins have addressed several key questions with recent signings, but intriguing roster battles remain. Of the three, Rocco Baldelli’s biggest decision entering his seventh spring training as the Twins skipper will be how to fill those last two(ish) spots in the bullpen.
Who do you think makes the cut? What storylines are you following in spring training? Join the conversation in the comments!
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