5 Ramifications of Justin Ishbia Dropping His Twins Ownership Bid

[Cody Christie]

Justin Ishiba shocked the Twins by dropping out of the running to be the team’s next owner. So, what’s next? Here are five ramifications for fans to follow.

Image courtesy of © Bruce Kluckhohn-Imagn Images

The Minnesota Twins' ownership saga has taken an unexpected turn. Billionaire businessman Justin Ishbia, once a frontrunner to acquire the franchise, has withdrawn his bid to focus on increasing his stake in the Chicago White Sox. This development carries significant implications for the Twins' future. Here are five key ramifications of Ishbia's decision:

1. Prolonged Sale Process
Recently, the Pohlad family aimed to finalize the sale by Opening Day 2025. With Ishbia's exit, the pool of known serious bidders has diminished, potentially extending the timeline. The process, which began in October 2024, might now stretch into mid-season or beyond as the team seeks a suitable buyer.

Earlier this winter, I wrote how the first half of 2025 might be the most pivotal point in Twins' history. Part of the premise of that article was to have new ownership in place by the trade deadline so the Twins could be active buyers if the team is in contention. There is still a chance for new owners to be in place by that point, but they might not get a chance to impact the roster until 2026.  

2. Potential Reassessment by the Pohlad Family
Ishbia's withdrawal could prompt the Pohlad family to reconsider their decision to sell. Reports suggest they might even take the team off the market, mainly if a satisfactory offer doesn't materialize. This uncertainty could impact the team's strategic planning and operations.

Sportico values the Twins at $1.7 billion, and Forbes pegs the franchise value at $1.46 billion. The Pohlads only get one opportunity to sell the franchise and will want to capitalize on its value. However, few MLB teams have been put on the market, which could allow an unknown bidder to meet the team’s asking price. Fans are ready for new ownership, so the Pohlads keeping the team would be a disappointment. 

3. Increased Uncertainty for Team Operations
Ownership transitions often bring changes in management and operational strategies. The delay in finalizing new ownership could lead to a period of uncertainty, affecting decision-making processes, player morale, and overall team performance. Will the team need to trade players to cut payroll? Can the club push the payroll higher at the trade deadline? Some questions won't have easy answers. 

Derek Falvey will be stepping into the dual role of baseball operations president and the franchise's business side. There are no guarantees that the new owners will want to keep him in that role. Sometimes, ownership groups like having people they know at the organization's top. There is value in keeping strong leadership in place, and that’s one of the reasons the Twins are promoting Falvey before the sale is finalized. 

4. Financial Implications
The Twins reportedly sought offers around $1.8 billion, with $1.5 billion considered a more realistic expectation. Ishbia's departure might influence the franchise's market valuation, potentially leading to adjustments in the asking price or terms of sale.

Other bidders are aware that Ishibia is dropping out of the ownership race. Many considered him the frontrunner, so there is one fewer person to outbid for the new ownership. Those still interested in the Twins could try and submit a lower bid, but then there is the danger of being outbid or the Pohlads pulling the team off the market. Again, MLB teams are rarely for sale, so this is a once-in-a-lifetime opportunity. 

5. Renewed Search for Potential Buyers
With Ishbia out of the picture, the Twins may need to identify and engage new potential buyers. This could involve reaching out to local business figures or exploring interest from other national or international investors, potentially reshaping the future ownership landscape of the franchise.

If the Twins honestly had a “robust market,” then there should be plenty of other groups interested in purchasing the team. If the Pohlads feel the bids are too low, perhaps they widen their search and look for other potential buyers. A renewed search likely stretches the timeline for new ownership until later this year. 

As the situation evolves, the Twins' leadership faces critical decisions shaping the organization's trajectory in the coming years.

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[Mark G]

These are interesting things to watch from an outsider's perspective.  The same owners who spend anywhere from 100 mil to 200 mil a year just on players salaries, much less the rest of the cost of running the franchise, will haggle over the same 100 - 200 mil in the "value" of the team in a sale.  The same numbers that are just part of doing business year to year are suddenly the most important numbers there are when it comes to exiting the business.  I know it is probably silly, but I just have to chuckle a little while it plays out.  🤭

And I am not just picking on the Pohlads; it seems that all pro sports franchises do the same thing.  It is fascinating to watch billionaires try to haggle with other billionaires over a couple of hundred mil while the majority of the fans can't afford to come to the games anyway.  That is why it is so much fun to watch.  And so frustrating at the same time.  

[mikelink45]

And the Twins fans just sit in the bleachers and try to figure out the score.  Perhaps being a fan is the most difficult position in any sport.

[arby58]

38 minutes ago, Mark G said:

These are interesting things to watch from an outsider's perspective.  The same owners who spend anywhere from 100 mil to 200 mil a year just on players salaries, much less the rest of the cost of running the franchise, will haggle over the same 100 - 200 mil in the "value" of the team in a sale.  The same numbers that are just part of doing business year to year are suddenly the most important numbers there are when it comes to exiting the business.  I know it is probably silly, but I just have to chuckle a little while it plays out.  🤭

Even your run-of-the-mill billionaire doesn't have $1.5 billion in liquid assets, so it's likely they have to arrange financing, which means even $100-$200 million in the difference can mean a lot more when you build in those costs (and it isn't as cheap to borrow money as it was a few years ago).  

[old nurse]

It shouldn’t be a shock that a part owner of another team in a larger market that has rumors of sales dropped out 

[LambchoP]

I just hope whoever buys the team legitimately wants to win and is willing to spend money to do so. MN fans have suffered a long time with the Pohlads, we deserve some relief 

[Doctor Gast]

It might be interesting why they backed out, maybe the Twins were too creative. With what the Twins did this offseason, I doubt the new owners would have money to go out & get a high-profile rental at the deadline IF the Twins are still in it. The Pohlads are on the hot seat if they back out they'd be tarred & feathered by the fans. If they have to take a discount they better do it.

[Whitey333]

I'm not a huge fan of the Pohlads.  But we at least had some stability in knowing the Tram would remain here.  Minus one contraction attempt of course lol.  I hope they sell and we get new owners.  But be wary of some of this.  We could wind up with an owner like the Marlins.  They currently have a payroll around $50 million or so. IMO the bigger problem has been the distribution of the payroll dollars.  Too many dollars tied up into too few players.  They are only slightly below average in payroll dollars in the major leagues.  Yes I would love to have a new owner come in and throw money around.  But it's not likely to happen.  Payroll this year looks to be around 140-145 million.  That should be enough to be competitive provided it's spent wisely.  It hasn't been in a lot of cases.

 

[TopGunn#22]

I'm going to speculate that Ishbia dropped out because he felt he could gain a majority ownership in the White Sox.  Bigger market, and despite the White Sox being the worst team in baseball, they are valued above the Twins.  And now he doesn't have to sell any of his current minority shares in the White Sox.

I have to admit, this is a disappointment.  We were all so hopeful of new ownership being willing to spend at the trade deadline and that is certainly on hold now.  We have heard that there was a "robust market" for the Twins.  But the only group we heard about was the Ishbia group.  Remarkably, not a single other group, name or conglomeration has been mentioned.  I don't know if that is a good thing, or a bad thing.

One outcome I can predict with certainty:  If the Pohlad's hang on to the Twins they will lose a boatload of money in 2025.  I just don't think this fan base is willing to put up with them anymore.  Even if the team is playing well in April & May, people won't come out.  If they continue to play well in June and July, attendance will not explode. Twins fans are just flat out done with the Pohlad family and I think the Pohlad's know it.

This is why they announced their intent to sell so soon after the season ended.  They know Twins fans have tired of their dumpster diving ways.  

Now that the news is out that Ishbia is focusing on the White Sox we should be hearing of 2 or 3 other groups who will be bidding for the Twins.  The reporting on possible groups has been sub-par.  I understand the desire of groups to remain quiet, but too much focus was placed on the Ishbia brothers.  It's time for media in the Twin Cities and baseball in general to get to work on this story.

[beckmt]

More that likely the Chicago owner preferred them to Nashville group.  And the White Sox owners are probably going to sell the team within a few years.  Bigger market, more money.  It makes too much sense.

Only issue is if they can't get a new stadium, but teams usually win this argument. 

[Major League Ready]

45 minutes ago, Doctor Gast said:

It might be interesting why they backed out, maybe the Twins were too creative. With what the Twins did this offseason, I doubt the new owners would have money to go out & get a high-profile rental at the deadline IF the Twins are still in it. The Pohlads are on the hot seat if they back out they'd be tarred & feathered by the fans. If they have to take a discount they better do it.

I have an extremely hard time believing Justin Ishbia dropped out of a $1.5B+ transaction because he did not want to be in a position where he MIGHT have to spend the remaining one-third of a $24M contract for a rental.  I used $24M to make the math easy.  $8M is one-half of 1% of $1.5B.  Put another way, let's say the Pohlads were asking $1.5B and Ishbia countered with $1,492,000, do you suppose the Pohlads would say no.  I think we can speculate with great confidence that Ishbia's interest was not going to be even remotely swayed by an $8M line item.

[terrydactyls]

1 hour ago, Doctor Gast said:

It might be interesting why they backed out, maybe the Twins were too creative. With what the Twins did this offseason, I doubt the new owners would have money to go out & get a high-profile rental at the deadline IF the Twins are still in it. The Pohlads are on the hot seat if they back out they'd be tarred & feathered by the fans. If they have to take a discount they better do it.

This comment is very odd.  There are only four sentences so let's take them one at a time.

Sentence 1:  Why did they back out?  My opinion is that the Ishbia brothers were using their "interest" in buying the Twins as leverage with the White Sox.  Actually buying the Twins may not have even been in their plans.  Twins being "too creative"?  I have no idea how the sale could fall apart because of creativity.

Sentence 2:  What in the world does the past off-season have to do with whether the new owners have the money to add a player or two?  The past off-season will be included in the purchase price.  If anything, the lack of doing anything may decrease the value of the Twins and free up additional money to add even more at the deadline.

Sentence 3.  Knowing Minnesotans, if the Pohlads decide not to sell the Twins, I would expect the reaction to more like "well gosh darn it all" than tar and feathers.

Sentence 4.  I agree.

[tarheeltwinsfan]

I am not saying whether what is going on in our country's government is right or wrong in this post. I have my very strong opinions about it, but I understand that this site is not the site for that discussion. But what I am going to say is this: There is unprecedented governmental change going on in our country today. The future of investing, and, I dare say, our past way of governing ourselves, are at stake. If I were a wealthy investor, or in a wealthy investment group, I would take that into consideration in deciding where to invest my assets. Based on my University of North Carolina degrees in economics and law and 52 years of being a trial attorney, a sports team ownership would not be one of my top choices for an investment in this period of uncertainty in the United States. 

[ashbury]

12 minutes ago, tarheeltwinsfan said:

a sports team ownership would not be one of my top choices for an investment in this period of uncertainty in the United States. 

I'd feel sorry for anyone with enough money to do anything they wish in their short remaining time on earth, and who chooses to look at a sports team as an investment.

[tony&rodney]

A wild guess here is that folks who click and/or comment on Twins Daily follow sports much more closely than the vast majority of people in the general public or who even attend Twins games. Another guess is that if the Twins play an exciting brand of baseball and win at a reasonable pace, attendance will be up. These two guesses could be wildly wrong.

My concerns are more towards the Twins playing baseball in a watchable manner much more than whether the Pohlads do this or that. Either way, I have zero control. I can watch other games, the minor leagues, and go to local baseball games at the VFW, Legion, college, and amateur levels though; all good choices.

Lastly, Carl died in 2009 and the current family members have not shown an inclination towards business in the same fashion. I imagine the remaining Pohlads are as eager as their most vociferous critics to be rid of the team, based on how seldom we hear their thoughts or see their faces. There is some responsibility to sell at market value and that should occur in due time. Patience is the tone to adopt.

[dxpavelka]

They never said they were going to sell the team.  What was said was that they were going to explore the possibility of selling the team.  Rube nation is, and has been, WAY out over their skis on this one. 

[bean5302]

To the best of my knowledge, it hasn't been reported on why the Ishbia's stopped pursuing the purchase of the Twins. What was reported was:
1) The Ishbia's were no longer pursuing the purchase of the Twins.
2) The Ishbia's were approached by Jerry Reinsdorf about buying out some minority White Sox owner shares which would not give the Ishbia's a majority stake or team control.
3) The Ishbia's intend to accept Reinsdorf's proposal.

If the Ishbia's were outbid, they might have decided to stop the pursuit. If that is the case, the high bidder can't just drop their bid because the Ishbia's are out based on price, not interest. A bidder can't play bidding games like that, either. Offers are offers and gaming the offer to scare off other bidders would have consequences.

[tony&rodney]

3 hours ago, Mark G said:

These are interesting things to watch from an outsider's perspective.  The same owners who spend anywhere from 100 mil to 200 mil a year just on players salaries, much less the rest of the cost of running the franchise, will haggle over the same 100 - 200 mil in the "value" of the team in a sale.  The same numbers that are just part of doing business year to year are suddenly the most important numbers there are when it comes to exiting the business.  I know it is probably silly, but I just have to chuckle a little while it plays out.  🤭

And I am not just picking on the Pohlads; it seems that all pro sports franchises do the same thing.  It is fascinating to watch billionaires try to haggle with other billionaires over a couple of hundred mil while the majority of the fans can't afford to come to the games anyway.  That is why it is so much fun to watch.  And so frustrating at the same time.  

I apparently missed the articles that ran down the haggling over price. Where did you read those?

[tony&rodney]

19 minutes ago, dxpavelka said:

They never said they were going to sell the team.  What was said was that they were going to explore the possibility of selling the team.  Rube nation is, and has been, WAY out over their skis on this one. 

I have understood this from the very beginning and stated such. MAYBE use Rube Nation for our national politics but it isn't fair or accurate to lump the many differences found among us on Twins Daily into one piece.

[Mark G]

17 minutes ago, tony&rodney said:

I apparently missed the articles that ran down the haggling over price. Where did you read those?

I took it from Cody's article above, point #4.  The Pohlad's hoping to get more like 1.8 billion, the more realistic figure might be around 1.5 billion, and with Ishbia dropping out leading to possible adjustments in the asking price or the sale conditions.  I just got the impression from the article itself that some haggling might be taking place, either now or eventually.  But, as always, I can be educated.  😉

[Jocko87]

2 hours ago, Major League Ready said:

I have an extremely hard time believing Justin Ishbia dropped out of a $1.5B+ transaction because he did not want to be in a position where he MIGHT have to spend the remaining one-third of a $24M contract for a rental.  I used $24M to make the math easy.  $8M is one-half of 1% of $1.5B.  Put another way, let's say the Pohlads were asking $1.5B and Ishbia countered with $1,492,000, do you suppose the Pohlads would say no.  I think we can speculate with great confidence that Ishbia's interest was not going to be even remotely swayed by an $8M line item.

Tagging on to this, I don’t think the correct phrase is “back out”. Unless they had signed something we haven’t heard about, there isn’t anything to back out of.  

I don’t think money, especially anything less than a hundred or two million has any influence on this decision. What Chicago has the potential to be 10 years from now is very appealing, especially for someone who lives there and has the resources to see a vision through. 

[Parfigliano]

20 minutes ago, Jocko87 said:

Tagging on to this, I don’t think the correct phrase is “back out”. Unless they had signed something we haven’t heard about, there isn’t anything to back out of.  

I don’t think money, especially anything less than a hundred or two million has any influence on this decision. What Chicago has the potential to be 10 years from now is very appealing, especially for someone who lives there and has the resources to see a vision through. 

From what I hear the City of Chicago and State of Illinois don't have 2 nickels to rub together or the political will to build a new stadium.

[NYCTK]

2 hours ago, tarheeltwinsfan said:

I am not saying whether what is going on in our country's government is right or wrong in this post. I have my very strong opinions about it, but I understand that this site is not the site for that discussion. But what I am going to say is this: There is unprecedented governmental change going on in our country today. The future of investing, and, I dare say, our past way of governing ourselves, are at stake. If I were a wealthy investor, or in a wealthy investment group, I would take that into consideration in deciding where to invest my assets. Based on my University of North Carolina degrees in economics and law and 52 years of being a trial attorney, a sports team ownership would not be one of my top choices for an investment in this period of uncertainty in the United States. 

A billionaire worried about their wealth when the billionaire president that's using the world's richest billionaire to cut money for the poor to propose tax cuts for billionaires, well, they might be an idiot. But as we all know, plenty of billionaires are. 

[tony&rodney]

1 hour ago, Mark G said:

I took it from Cody's article above, point #4.  The Pohlad's hoping to get more like 1.8 billion, the more realistic figure might be around 1.5 billion, and with Ishbia dropping out leading to possible adjustments in the asking price or the sale conditions.  I just got the impression from the article itself that some haggling might be taking place, either now or eventually.  But, as always, I can be educated.  😉

Oh, ok, thank you. I saw that too but since there wasn't any quotes I just attributed it to Cody guessing like we do and not to anything that actually was taking place. I just haven't seen anything reputable put out on an asking or buying price other than the estimated values by Forbes and a bunch of other sites, none of them having any more legitimacy than you and I as sources. Well, you would be better than me as a source since i only know what I read.

[NYCTK]

2 hours ago, tony&rodney said:

Another guess is that if the Twins play an exciting brand of baseball and win at a reasonable pace, attendance will be up. These two guesses could be wildly wrong.

They didn't even sell out their playoff games in 23 and attendance then fell. I have to agree that the fan base is shriveling and the Pohlad's are largely the reason. 

They could win 90 games this year and wouldn't sell out their playoff games until they get to the ALCS. 

[tony&rodney]

9 minutes ago, NYCTK said:

They didn't even sell out their playoff games in 23 and attendance then fell. I have to agree that the fan base is shriveling and the Pohlad's are largely the reason. 

They could win 90 games this year and wouldn't sell out their playoff games until they get to the ALCS. 

I agree that everyone has an opinion.

[Cris E]

I don't think anyone knows anything and there's been a LOT of speculation around this process so far.  I believe:

 - The team was put on the market once the TV revenue picture was clarified and it became certain that the spice would not flow as it had in the past.   Between that and the spike in payrolls in recent years the family was not ready to lean into this expensive and less profitable world.

 - They announced it as "exploring a sale" simply because that's what you say in case you don't find a market for your product.  The goal is selling, not dumping, and they'll pull back if the price isn't high enough. (But I think they will eventually find someone at a lower price once the new TV money stabilizes and it's clear how much poorer the franchise is.)

 - The Ishibas probably were fine with the team and stadium and even the TV deal and would have settled on a price in good time. What likely broke that deal had far more to do with the chance to own the White Sox. It's got more future real estate value and potential broadcast money than the Twins, and it's silly to pretend that $200m is some insurmountable barrier.

 - I think the big money vs little money brawl coming with the next CBA deal might get solved by using expansion cash to buy out some of the lost future revenues that would be shared in a new formula. That is, if they find a new formula that makes teams like LAD and NYY share more that could also be the basis for distributing expansion fees (eg percent of total MLB value rather than 30 equal shares.) It won't really offset it, but if they were going to lose the fight anyway (especially since all the new owners are going to be a on the wrong end of new media deals rather than signing huge old-school cable deals.) EDIT: I put this here because any new owner is going to have to know where they'll stand in that fight before they write a check. It's incredibly important to anyone who wants to win.

 - Because they don't have another pre-approved buyer on the line there's little chance this team gets sold before the end of this season. 

[Doctor Gast]

3 hours ago, Major League Ready said:

I have an extremely hard time believing Justin Ishbia dropped out of a $1.5B+ transaction because he did not want to be in a position where he MIGHT have to spend the remaining one-third of a $24M contract for a rental.  I used $24M to make the math easy.  $8M is one-half of 1% of $1.5B.  Put another way, let's say the Pohlads were asking $1.5B and Ishbia countered with $1,492,000, do you suppose the Pohlads would say no.  I think we can speculate with great confidence that Ishbia's interest was not going to be even remotely swayed by an $8M line item.

I was just making a joke. Not to be taken seriously. Of course, Ishbia wouldn't balk at a minor amount.

[Doctor Gast]

5 hours ago, terrydactyls said:

Sentence 3.  Knowing Minnesotans, if the Pohlads decide not to sell the Twins, I would expect the reaction to more like "well gosh darn it all" than tar and feathers.

Sentence 4.  I agree.

#3- IMO the reaction if Pohlads don't sell & nothing changes, would be greater than "golly gee". The Pohlads would get a lot of blow back, lose a lot of fans (maybe even me) & money.

[arby58]

3 hours ago, ashbury said:

I'd feel sorry for anyone with enough money to do anything they wish in their short remaining time on earth, and who chooses to look at a sports team as an investment.

I'm pretty sure most do. If they truly want 'to do anything they wish' there are more enlightened (and for that matter entertaining) options.

I mentioned this elsewhere, but most of a billionaire's net worth is tied up in illiquid assets. That means either liquidating stock/options (with the tax implications - they'd rather hold them and borrow against them so when they leave this earth stepped up basis means never having to say you're sorry about capital gains) or getting financing for what could be hundreds of millions of dollars. In that case, the billionaire has to take into consideration paying off the note - and from what? If the team is a bottom line loser AND they're paying off a nine figure note . . . it can seriously crimp even a billionaire's lifestyle.  I know there are a few owners who treat this as a 'hobby horse,' but if you look at team spending, it generally aligns with revenue.