The Minnesota Twins Project to Have Baseball’s Best Bullpen, With Room to Improve

[Cody Christie]

Minnesota had one of baseball’s best bullpens last season, and the core of that group remains strong. Here’s why the Twins are projected to have MLB’s best bullpen next season, even though they've yet to hit their collective ceiling.

Image courtesy of David Richard and Jerome Miron-Imagn Images

Pitchers and catchers report to spring training next month, which leaves many fans looking toward the upcoming season. How will the hometown nine perform? Where can the team still improve before Opening Day? What players are set to take on a more critical role? Projection systems like Dan Szymborski’s ZiPS help to set a baseline for what to expect in the upcoming season. Last week, FanGraphs released the team’s ZiPS projections, and the bullpen stood out from the other roster segments. 

Teams still have room to add pieces to their roster before the season begins, but Minnesota’s bullpen might not need any upgrades. According to Szymborski, “Though it’s certainly not an official projection yet, ZiPS believes at this moment that the Twins have the best bullpen in baseball.” What’s behind this high praise, and how can the team solidify this position as the season approaches? Let’s dive into what’s changed, how the group can improve, and what pieces might still be missing.

What’s Changed from 2024 to 2025?
The 2024 Twins bullpen was a solid unit, with the second-highest fWAR in the American League. However, every bullpen has its flaws. Injuries and inconsistency plagued the group, leaving questions about its overall reliability. However, several key developments over the offseason and player growth have led to this promising 2025 projection.

First, Griffin Jax emerged as one of the most dominant relievers in baseball. He had a 2.03 ERA, a 0.87 WHIP, and 95 strikeouts in 71 innings pitched in 2024. Jax finished with 10 saves and allowed just four home runs all year. He was worth 2.8 WAR, tied for seventh-most among all MLB relief pitchers. MLB Network recently unveiled its top-10 relievers and Jax was notably left off the list. Entering last year, he was projected to be a solid reliever, but no one could have imagined the elite pitcher he would be in 2024. 

Secondly, Jhoan Durán has been one of the most dominant relievers in baseball, but he showed some chinks in his armor last season. Durán’s combination of triple-digit velocity and devastating off-speed pitches makes him a nightmare for opposing hitters. He saw a decrease in velocity last season, so the team must keep an eye on his performance this year. In 58 appearances, he posted a 3.64 ERA with a 1.16 WHIP and 10.9 K/9. There may be room for him to adjust his pitch usage to be effective even at his lower velocity. Jax and Durán have the potential to be a dominant late-inning duo. 

Lastly, the front office has made calculated decisions to retain key contributors while avoiding overspending on free agents. Their strategy of maximizing value from in-house options has helped build a bullpen rich in both talent and cost-effectiveness. Overall, the team kept strong performers from 2024 and dropped the underperforming players. 

How Can This Group Improve?
While the ZiPS projections are encouraging, there’s always room for growth, and several key factors could elevate the Twins’ bullpen to even greater heights in 2025.

1. Louie Varland in a Relief Role: Varland struggled as a starter last season, so moving to the bullpen could unlock his full potential. His fastball and cutter have the makings of elite relief weapons. Focusing on shorter outings should allow him to add velocity and sharpen his command, which the Twins saw in 2023 when he was used as a reliever for the team’s postseason run. Varland could be a pivotal piece in the late innings, if he embraces this role.
2. A Full Season of Cole Sands: Sands quietly emerged as a dependable option in 2024, and the Twins are counting on him to take another step forward in 2025. In 62 games, he posted a 3.28 ERA with a 0.99 WHIP and 10.7 K/9. For the first time in his career, he used his cutter more than his four-seamer and increased its velocity from 88.5 MPH to 90.8 MPH. His four-seamer (31.2%), cutter (29.7%), and curveball (29.4%) each saw a significant jump in Whiff% in a bullpen role. There is a chance he can improve as he gets another full season in the bullpen.
3. Brock Stewart’s Return: Stewart’s 2024 season was cut short by another shoulder injury, but his electric stuff was evident when healthy. If he can return to form, Stewart offers another dynamic arm capable of handling high-leverage situations. In 2023, the Twins saw Stewart post a 0.65 ERA with a 1.08 WHIP and 12.7 K/9. His recovery could be a significant X-factor in the bullpen’s success, but it seems likely that the Twins will limit his workload to keep him healthy for the season’s second half.

What Pieces Are Missing?
Despite the promising projection, there are still ways the Twins can enhance their bullpen’s performance. Specifically, the team lacks a proven high-leverage left-handed reliever. Caleb Thielbar’s departure leaves a middle-inning role. Kody Funderburk and Brent Headrick are the only lefties on the 40-man roster, so the Twins could be in the market for a more reliable lefty. There is hope this duo could improve and step into the vacated high-leverage lefty role. 

Free agency or trades could address this need, but the Twins’ front office is reluctant to invest heavily in relief pitching. Historically, they’ve preferred to allocate resources elsewhere, relying on development and minor-league signings to build their bullpen. If they stick with this approach, the team may need to identify a breakout candidate or use creative roster moves to fill this gap.

The Minnesota Twins’ bullpen is poised for a breakout season in 2025, with a mix of established stars and rising talents ready to lead the charge. Louie Varland’s transition, a healthy Brock Stewart, and a full season of Cole Sands could take the group to the next level. However, addressing the lack of a high-leverage lefty could be the final puzzle piece. Whether through internal development or an external addition, the Twins have an opportunity to solidify their bullpen as the best in baseball and make a deep postseason run. If the projections hold, 2025 could be a banner year for pitching in Minnesota.

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What stands out about the team’s ZiPS projections for the bullpen? Leave a comment and start the discussion. 

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[stringer bell]

I like the bullpen components, but I don't think they were that good in 2024 and I'll believe it when I see it in 2025. Jax was great throughout, Durán was better than most of his topline numbers and Sands was a revelation. That's a great start. Between Topa, Stewart and Alcalá, there is much chance for injury, but if the Twins can get over 100 appearances from those three, they'll be deeper than last year. That is assuming that Durán, Jax and Sands stay healthy. 

It would be optimum if the Twins had an effective lefty to mix in and IMHO if they can swap out one of the second three I listed for an equally effective lefty, it would make sense.

Deeper outings from the starters also would help. 

[GNess]

It's a difficult task to make such rankings with Spring Training still a month away..

What can be said is there are legit reasons to be excited and optimistic about the potential for the Twins BP. 

[Whitey333]

Oh please!  Did anyone actually watch this bullpen?  Last year Duran lost 9 games.  When you are labeled as a top reliever, losing 9 games in the bullpen is disastrous.  Also the Bullpen had the worst record in all of baseball by far in letting inherited runners score.  Not much of an endorsement.  The bullpen, like most other areas of the team is very fragile

[old nurse]

17 minutes ago, Whitey333 said:

Oh please!  Did anyone actually watch this bullpen?  Last year Duran lost 9 games.  When you are labeled as a top reliever, losing 9 games in the bullpen is disastrous.  Also the Bullpen had the worst record in all of baseball by far in letting inherited runners score.  Not much of an endorsement.  The bullpen, like most other areas of the team is very fragile

Hader and Bednar each lost eight games. I quess they are disasters as relievers

[Vanimal46]

It gets more difficult by the day to take Twins Daily seriously with baseball content. 

[ashbury]

Brock Stewart has never pitched as many as 35 major league innings in a season.  He's already 33 years old.  To expect a pitcher with this kind of resume to be a major reason that the Twins' bullpen could be one of the best is just wishful thinking.

Aside from that, with Cleveland's bullpen mostly intact from last year, I don't see how our top-4 plus a cast of thousands can be considered on a par with the best.

[tony&rodney]

San Diego might want a little international bonus money. Maybe the Twins can poach one of Jason Adam, Bryan Hoeing, or Robert Suarez from the Padres for a reasonable return. That would strengthen the bullpen from good to better.

[Parfigliano]

Don't top bullpens have at least 1 dependable LHP?

[DJL44]

They're very deep. Varland doesn't look like he will make the roster out of spring training.

[ashbury]

35 minutes ago, Parfigliano said:

Don't top bullpens have at least 1 dependable LHP?

Don't top bullpens also not lead the majors in inherited runner scoring percentage with 41% the year before?

[Danchat]

Yeah, I don't get the hype. They have two studs and a quality middle reliever in Sands, and then a bunch of question marks. Stewart when healthy last year had a whip of nearly 1.5 and had a WAR under zero, Alcala is mystery, and Topa has only ever pitched in 8 or more games a season once in the majors. I like Varland as a reliever, but he's no sure thing. And they don't have a single serviceable lefty... this isn't a blueprint for the best bullpen in baseball.

[Yawn Gardenhose]

Hasn't a version of this article been written prior to the last 3 seasons or so? Smacks of familiarity 

[old nurse]

1 hour ago, Vanimal46 said:

It gets more difficult by the day to take Twins Daily seriously with baseball content. 

Years ago I heard a guy n Common Man talk baseball with him. Entertained, informative. Gave out his web site, Seth Speaks. It does seem like a time when they all formed this site it was about the game itself and how it was played. Now it feels like a site for would be GMs and people to complain about everything. The site seems to be clickbait city. Get them arguing so they get more clicks 

[old nurse]

51 minutes ago, ashbury said:

Don't top bullpens also not lead the majors in inherited runner scoring percentage with 41% the year before?

Does that number include the extra innings phantom double to lead off?

[ashbury]

9 minutes ago, old nurse said:

Does that number include the extra innings phantom double to lead off?

Not sure.  In those situations there is no "previous pitcher" whose ERA is affected, per the site.

I just took the season total from baseball-reference.com.  I assume that over the course of a season the extra innings more or less balance out.  With 203 inherited runners (fewer than league average) and 83 of them scoring (above league average), I imagine that extra innings aren't the key factor.

[old nurse]

1 hour ago, Danchat said:

Yeah, I don't get the hype. They have two studs and a quality middle reliever in Sands, and then a bunch of question marks. Stewart when healthy last year had a whip of nearly 1.5 and had a WAR under zero, Alcala is mystery, and Topa has only ever pitched in 8 or more games a season once in the majors. I like Varland as a reliever, but he's no sure thing. And they don't have a single serviceable lefty... this isn't a blueprint for the best bullpen in baseball.

The Zips projection for wins and losses for the pitcher’s record total somewhere around a 200 win season for the Twins as well as more loses than wins.  They also have Scott Blewett pitching 77 innings.  So the hype is someone trying to write a positive story for a change 

[Fire Dan Gladden]

Duran is a competent reliever, but I don't think he is dominant.  Sands numbers were better than Duran basically across the board.  Duran throws heat, but the reults don't really live up to the hype.

This BP isn't even the best in the division, much less all of MLB

[old nurse]

12 minutes ago, ashbury said:

Not sure.  In those situations there is no "previous pitcher" whose ERA is affected, per the site.

I just took the season total from baseball-reference.com.  I assume that over the course of a season the extra innings more or less balance out.  With 203 inherited runners (fewer than league average) and 83 of them scoring (above league average), I imagine that extra innings aren't the key factor.

The extra innings runner does not count against the pitcher’s ERA, but essentially is an inherited runner.  Runs allowed per 9 innings might e a better gauge for relief pitchers. They are suposed to overcome the errors and inherited runners in their spot 

[old nurse]

4 minutes ago, Fire Dan Gladden said:

Duran is a competent reliever, but I don't think he is dominant.  Sands numbers were better than Duran basically across the board.  Duran throws heat, but the reults don't really live up to the hype.

This BP isn't even the best in the division, much less all of MLB

Looked at a couple other places.Ceaveland is still rated the best 

[Hosken Bombo Disco]

If our guy has a great year, it’s proof he is now an elite weapon out of the bullpen and is fast becoming one of the best in MLB.

If another team’s guy has a great year, he must be due for regression. 

Not sure how these things are determined. 

For the record, I do think Jax will be fine next year. 

[h2oface]

Here we go again! I knew that was coming. Just a matter of time. Ha!

BEST BULLPEN IN MLB!!

Inherited runners be damned. Baaaaaaaaaa.........

[Wizard11]

4 hours ago, old nurse said:

Years ago I heard a guy n Common Man talk baseball with him. Entertained, informative. Gave out his web site, Seth Speaks. It does seem like a time when they all formed this site it was about the game itself and how it was played. Now it feels like a site for would be GMs and people to complain about everything. The site seems to be clickbait city. Get them arguing so they get more clicks 

Amen to this!  I miss when this site was about baseball.  It has become harder and harder to read the comments section.  So much bloviation about roster construction and managerial decisions.  There used to be a wealth of really insightful articles as well as very insightful commenters.  Now it seems more and more to be clickbait articles and an obligatory troll fest.  No surprise that traffic on here is way down.  It gets depressing to read the endless tripe about the FO and manager.

[Doctor Wu]

8 hours ago, ashbury said:

Brock Stewart has never pitched as many as 35 major league innings in a season. 

Whoa, I had no idea his innings numbers were that miniscule. Ouch! He has obviously shown talent in recent years, but his injury history is a red flag. 

[Doctor Wu]

10 hours ago, stringer bell said:

Between Topa, Stewart and Alcalá, there is much chance for injury

To me, that's the biggest concern, and the major reason that we can't get too confident about our bullpen this season. I still think we need at least one more veteran LHP added to the bullpen. But even that is no guarantee we will be dominant. As someone whitey 333 wrote, bullpens are indeed very fragile and unpredictable things. 

[Doctor Gast]

Thank you Cody for this informative & encouraging article. I don't get all the complaining about this article. Normally TD readers go ga ga over ZIPs. Last season everyone was eating up all the hype around Paddack pitching 150 innings & being the next Gray, the great addition of DeSclavani & Topa plus all the fringe RPs that never panned out. All to make us forget the loss of Gray & no significant replacement. Besides all of this Duran had a slow start & his attitude never really came back. Theilbar lost his edge & Stewart got injured. But Jax was a bright spot in the BP, along with Sands & Alcala, when he was managed properly after a long absence on the IL.

Hype is like an inflated balloon, I get the big let down but as this article states this BP still has a lot of potential. Anchored by Jax, IMO Duran was underappreciated in his fireman role. Leave Duran in the closer role & IMO his attitude could return. Alcala would be 1 more year removed from his surgery but I'd still avoid him from pitching multiple innings & consecutive appearances to begin the season. Stewart said he feels better than last year, he too should be monitored. The only debatable weakness I see is a high-leverage LHRP spot left by Theilbar. I'm not confident with Funderburg or Headrick. So we can trade from our strength (Topa & Tonkin, I don't hate Tonkin but I'd prefer RPs with options) & pick up a high-leverage LHRP (not another Okert or Richards) to make us better. I'm a believer in Varland in the BP & that Canterino & Preilipp could be big contributors in the BP. If the salary dump becomes void Paddack could also be a force at some time in the BP.

[rv78]

Irony = If the best LHRP out of the bullpen for high leverage situations is Theilbar 2024 then the Twins are better off without that LHRP.

[High heat]

Matt Canterino might be a very nice late inning option.  Like Stewart he has to find some healthy and is hard to count or rely on but you have a successful transfer to the bullpen from Varland a healthy Stewart and Canterino added with Jax and Duran I can see why on paper it looks deep and very good.

I just having trouble holding my breath for these things.

[Linus]

I thought WAR was considered a bad way to measure bullpens?  If the Twins pen was considered 2nd best last year based on WAR then I would disregard it.  

[jmlease1]

When you look at the total body of work in 2024, the Twins bullpen was quite good, and they're bringing back every key contributor from last season. Why wouldn't they be highly ranked and well-regarded?

Recency bias is clearly driving down some people's opinion of the bullpen; they had some struggles down the stretch along with every other part of the team not named Buxton or Correa, with some high profile blowups (Jorge Alcala, are your ears burning?). But that doesn't mean they're bad, especially in the context of the rest of the league.

Jax was elite last year, Duran was only good, but still has all the tools to be great again. Sands came on strong and seems to have found himself as a reliever, and while Alcala had a couple of bad blowups, his overall season was quite good. That's a very strong foundation for a bullpen, with 4 pitchers that can be used in high-leverage situations. Add in the rest of the options (Varland, Topa, Stewart, Castellano, Tonkin) and the Twins should have a strong bullpen that's missing only one element: a trusted LHP. But after the Okert Experience maybe it's not as critical to get a lefty out when the next 2 righties blow you up, especially when you have excellent RHP that can get LH out quite well.

I'd like to see them add a LHP who doesn't get crushed by every RH who can hold a bat, but that's literally the only hole in this bullpen. Most teams are trying to figure out if they have enough backend guys, trying out a new closer, or hoping that 2-3 guys can handle the role. Twins biggest barrier is whether they can get & keep guys like Stewart & Topa healthy enough to get value out of them...and they have options already behind them.

It's a good group.