Jhoan Durán’s Decreased Velocity is Forcing Pitch Mix Changes

Jhoan Durán's season hasn't gotten off to a perfect start. In spring training, the team shut him down after he felt tightness in his right oblique while warming up for a live batting practice session. He began the year on the IL and missed the season’s first month. Since returning, his results haven't matched those he achieved in previous seasons. He has set multiple velocity records during his big-league tenure, including a 104.8-mph fastball that he immortalized on the back of his custom cleats. During the 2023 season, he had four pitches registered at 104.4 mph or higher. He’s known for his high velocity, but a drop in velocity has changed how he uses his pitches this season.

Four-Seamer
2023 Average Velocity: 101.8
2024 Average Velocity: 100.6 (-1.2 mph)
Fans sometimes vent frustration on social media when Durán doesn’t come out and throw his fastball regularly. However, there is a method to the madness. Big-league hitters can square up a fastball, even when facing one with Durán’s velocity. During the 2023 season, batters posted a .375 SLG and a .311 wOBA, the highest totals he allowed on any of his pitches. Last season, he threw his fastball nearly 45% of the time, but he’s dropped that to 34.3% so far this season. His fastball reached 101.6 during Sunday’s appearance, but averaged around 100 mph. Duran’s four-seamer gets the majority of the hype, but it’s his worst pitch when it comes to results. For his long-term success, an increase in the usage of his other pitches might help. 

Curveball
2023 Average Velocity: 87.7
2024 Average Velocity: 86.5 (-1.2 mph)
Durán’s most significant change in pitch mix this season has been an increased reliance on his curveball. Last season, he used his curve 27.7% of the time; he's increased that to 35.2%. Unfortunately, that’s the pitch he threw to Cleveland’s Will Brennan, resulting in a walk-off three-run home run Sunday. After the game, he told reporters that he wanted to go after Brennan with a fastball, and that it wasn’t his decision to throw the curveball. Opponents were held to a .125 xBA and .207 xSLG against his curveball in 2023, making it arguably his best pitch. The hook has given up the hardest contact this year, including two home runs. It will be interesting to see if he turns to other pitches if his curveball continues to get hit hard.   

Splinker
2023 Average Velocity: 98.4
2024 Average Velocity: 97.2 (-1.2 mph)
Duran’s splitter is also a record-breaking pitch, as it was the first off-speed pitch in MLB history to be clocked at over 100 mph. He has also seen an increase in splitter usage, from 27.3% to 30.6% this season. The pitch is used less often because of its low Whiff%. During the 2023 season, batters posted a 26.8 Whiff% against his splitter, nine points lower than his fastball and over 10 points lower than his curveball. So far this season, batters have yet to get a hit versus Duran’s splitter, but his 12.5 Put Away% doesn’t make it an effective weapon. Last season, it resulted in a 31.0 Put Away%, so he must find a way to use this pitch more effectively. That could mean tweaking its entire profile, though, which would need to wait until this offseason. As it's currently working, the "splinker" isn't going to miss many bats, because it works more like a sinker than like a true splitter. It could be a good way for him to get ground balls and avoid the hard contact that has plagued the curve, but it has to be used carefully against left-handed batters.

Minnesota’s success this season relies heavily on having a solid bullpen to close out games. Durán is critical to that success, so he must find the best pitch mix to deal with his decreased velocity. Baseball is a game of adjustments, and now that he seems not to be Mr. 104.8 anymore, it’s time for Durán to find what works best for him. 

Can Durán’s pitch mix adjustments help his results? Are you worried about his drop in velocity? Leave a comment and start the discussion.