Hold Up! The Twins Might Not Cut Payroll After All

[South Dakota Tom]

Was chatting with a buddy about this very topic last night.  Our limited collective knowledge is clearly tinged with hope, but the sale of the team and the (lack of) current moves seem tied together.

From the seller's perspective, maybe they'd like to add a couple of players (LH RP, RH 1B/COF) to appear as though they are committing their final act of stewardship to improve the team.

Conversely, from the buyer's perspective, that's the last thing they want.  Then, the new owners would have to come in and basically - do nothing.  The payroll just increased from $140M to $150M, let's say, and now the new owners might be even more hamstrung than before.  Not a great first impression.

If something is going to happen, it seems clear that it would occur after new ownership (or with the express consent of pending new ownership, who would take credit for green-lighting the transaction).  They want their white horse to ride in on. 

This seems to dovetail as well with the bargaining strategy - as has been mentioned, poor offers from other teams for the saleable assets, and poor offers from the Twins for available ones. 

That could turn on its head within the next handful of weeks.  The pool of available players grows smaller, the Twins (by not obtaining anyone and refusing all offers for existing players) appear more and more desperate.  Then (here's the hopeful part) new owners come in, add a couple of solid players when 31 other teams are either out of money or set at that position, make a reasonable trade from our minor league pool of depth to address any other needs, and wait out the market from there until the season is underway.  I'm hoping Paddack starts the season strong and gets traded (I don't think he'll make it through the entire year, physically), but I'm also hoping they keep Vasquez for the season, or at least until the auditions for back-up catcher have a chance to play out.

 

 

[dxpavelka]

11 hours ago, ashbury said:

The Other, Wrong, Downright Awful, Very Bad Lopez.

Fair enough.

[dxpavelka]

For three weeks I've been telling folks that as long as Pete Alonzo remains unsigned and a Scott Boras client don't sleep on the outrageous possibility of a first Correa Twins like deal at a smaller dollar amount. Just sayin

[NYCTK]

1 minute ago, dxpavelka said:

For three weeks I've been telling folks that as long as Pete Alonzo remains unsigned and a Scott Boras client don't sleep on the outrageous possibility of a first Correa Twins like deal at a smaller dollar amount. Just sayin

Alonso. 

And he's not signing with the Twins. 

[Original_JB]

3 minutes ago, dxpavelka said:

For three weeks I've been telling folks that as long as Pete Alonzo remains unsigned and a Scott Boras client don't sleep on the outrageous possibility of a first Correa Twins like deal at a smaller dollar amount. Just sayin

Not a horrible idea. Could be the new owner's "big splash" signing.

[stringer bell]

First of all, wasn't the message that the payroll would stay the same as 2024? Raises for players already on the roster pushed 2025's total payroll up about $10M because of arbitration raises and the large bump in López' annual pay, even with Kepler, Farmer, DeSclafani, Santana, Margot and Thielbar leaving.

Also, several teams have been very quiet. It was noted that the entire AL Central, which had three playoff teams and four teams with winning records had participated very little in the free agent market. Several other teams have done little and/or cut payroll, so this isn't just a TC phenomenon. 

Despite sitting on their hands, the Twins can field a competitive team, although the depth has been sapped by free agent departures. I see the potential for a very good to excellent pitching staff and a decent to above-average offense, although a lack of speed and athleticism hurts them around the margins. They also have less of a buffer for position player injuries or outright disappointment (like Edouard Julien last year). Another $10M well-spent could go a long way toward addressing their deficiencies. Whether they spend any money from this point on or not, the Twins will have the highest payroll in their division.

[Eris]

It was demoralizing to spend the last 2 months reading articles on TD, most of which began with some variation of “because of the need to cut payroll…” Oh boy! The Twins are fielding trade offers for Carlos Correa or Pablo López. Let’s trade Ryan Jeffers for a middling RP, Willie Castro— no room in the budget for him. And Joe Ryan lets trade him while he has maximum value, etc…. I found all this to be very depressing. So much so that I stopped reading most articles on TD. It sucked all the enjoyment out of the off-season.  

 

And now we learn less than 40 days from pitchers and catchers reporting that maybe-just maybe- payroll doesn’t need to be cut after all.

 

 

[dxpavelka]

5 minutes ago, Original_JB said:

Not a horrible idea. Could be the new owner's "big splash" signing.

Not saying that it IS going to happen but it COULD

[Greglw3]

2 hours ago, Aerodeliria said:

What are words for? When no one listens, what are words for? When no one listens, there's no use talking at all.

 

Suddenly this just popped into my brain...

Reminds me of the Tom Tom club’s song 'Wordy Rappinghood', a delightful song!

[Jocko87]

2 minutes ago, Eris said:

It was demoralizing to spend the last 2 months reading articles on TD, most of which began with some variation of “because of the need to cut payroll…” Oh boy! The Twins are fielding trade offers for Carlos Correa or Pablo López. Let’s trade Ryan Jeffers for a middling RP, Willie Castro— no room in the budget for him. And Joe Ryan lets trade him while he has maximum value, etc…. I found all this to be very depressing. So much so that I stopped reading most articles on TD. It sucked all the enjoyment out of the off-season.  

 

And now we learn less than 40 days from pitchers and catchers reporting that maybe-just maybe- payroll doesn’t need to be cut after all.

 

 

Yup, been a lot of gag worthy editorial decisions in the last few months in spite of ample evidence no such certainty existed.  The only certain thing was that us rubes (TD staff included) were never going to know anything until it was announced.

Now, we go the other way even though we should have the same level of uncertainty about ant-fing one sentence.  

[bean5302]

How I read this: Jeremy Zoll is better at PR than Joe Pohlad. We've all seen Falvey can't define or follow a budget. This just reads like more incompetence to me. I do not care about the budget. I care whether or not the front office finds a "creative" way to make the team better.

[Gamblerssoftball]

1 hour ago, Original_JB said:

I think that more than a little angst isn't just the "payroll cut" it's not getting the team sorted out, roles-wise. Who's the full time 3B? 1B? 2B? who's backing up CF? Where are the RH bats? Sure, we can apply names to most all these positions (Miranda 3B, Lewis/Lee 2B, Julien 1B, etc.), but have any of these guys shown they can "own" and thrive at those positions (if given the opportunity to not just be a platooner?) Yeah, Nick Punto could cover a lot of positions too, but is that what we want to see?

It seems like the manager and front office don't want anybody at a  "full time position" anywhere. It's one of the analytics things that I can't stand. Sometimes, a guy can't perform at his best when every day you have to look at the lineup in the dugout for your name, your position in the order, and where you're playing in the field. I'm not sure that's the way to get the most from your players.

[Greglw3]

13 minutes ago, Eris said:

It was demoralizing to spend the last 2 months reading articles on TD, most of which began with some variation of “because of the need to cut payroll…” Oh boy! The Twins are fielding trade offers for Carlos Correa or Pablo López. Let’s trade Ryan Jeffers for a middling RP, Willie Castro— no room in the budget for him. And Joe Ryan lets trade him while he has maximum value, etc…. I found all this to be very depressing. So much so that I stopped reading most articles on TD. It sucked all the enjoyment out of the off-season.  

 

And now we learn less than 40 days from pitchers and catchers reporting that maybe-just maybe- payroll doesn’t need to be cut after all.

 

 

On one hand, it seems the Twins could do a better job of communicating with their fan base. One the other hand, actions tell us that they have acquired exactly ZERO MLB players in this offseason. Cleveland, Detroit, KC, and even Chicago have done more.

That said, I did like the acquisition in the Rule 5 of Eiberson Castellano, the Phillies Minor League pitcher of the year, the recent acquisition of Diego Cartaya and I love that Mickey Gasper hit .366 with a .477 OBP in AAA in about 200 plate appearances. We need more on base guys on this team.

I would still make my best plays for Roki and Jurickson Profar but I don’t expect the Twins to obtain the very obtainable Profar who would really improve the team as the LF over Larnach.

My wildest fantasy is the sale is completed in the next month and the Twins sign Profar.

[ladrossetwin]

The comments from Zoll are encouraging.  My biggest concern was that we would be forced to make salary dump type trades just to reach arbitrary, $130 million, number.  Now it sounds like if we make a deal the primary objective is to improve the team and there isn't a salary level that we absolutely have to reduce to reach.

[ziggy]

What happens if the new owners want to cut payroll instead of add payroll?

There's as much chance of that as adding payroll.

 

 

[Jocko87]

6 minutes ago, Greglw3 said:

My wildest fantasy is the sale is completed in the next month and the Twins sign Profar.

You need to get out more.

[Dman]

First let me say they always knew this was going to be a challenging year financially with Correa's highest annual payday and Lopez's big bump.  Once they get through that though it feels like things even out.  I always felt for all those years ownership didn't spend when the team was bad that they should be a able to go a year a two without making as much money or maybe even losing a little.  But yeah I get it Baseball is a business so it is what it is.

I haven't read all the comments but this seems like a pretty typical Twins offseason to me.  They just don't do much early in the process as they wait until the end for trades and bargains.  I still think they could trade Vasquez or Castro or Paddock but those kinds of deals usually happen late in the process IMO.  Once the dust settles on Free Agency I wouldn't be surprised to see some moves by the Twins.

Maybe with new ownership moving in they move the bar on payroll will just have to wait and see I guess. This FO has done some surprising things late like signing Donaldson, Correa, and getting the Lopez trade done.  So I wouldn't worry too much yet.

[ashbury]

33 minutes ago, Gamblerssoftball said:

It seems like the manager and front office don't want anybody at a  "full time position" anywhere. It's one of the analytics things that I can't stand. Sometimes, a guy can't perform at his best when every day you have to look at the lineup in the dugout for your name, your position in the order, and where you're playing in the field. I'm not sure that's the way to get the most from your players.

Someone in the front office talks about payroll?  Let's switch to our personal pet peeve.

Which players are you talking about, anyway?  Max Kepler played 100% of his defensive innings in RF in 2024.  Byron Buxton was in CF when he played. Carlos Correa was at SS when available.  Carlos Santana was at 1B, and Jeffers and Vazquez both were at catcher except for a couple of emergency stints at 3B for the latter.  Royce Lewis had 3B to himself except he got injured for a long while and then in September they decided to try him elsewhere; his backup Jose Miranda played there basically all the time during his absence.  There was some DHing mixed in for several players since there wasn't a fulltime DH on the roster.  That leaves LF and 2B, which might have been more stable except for the injuries elsewhere which opened up temporary needs.  The regulars played where they belonged, except when they got injured or played themselves out of a starting role and got sent to AAA.  If the complaint was that backups like Willi Castro and Manuel Margot and Austin Martin moved around a bit, well, that's the nature of being utility players.  It's not like the manager said, "hey, lets swap 2B and 3B just for the fun of it, this coming week, then we'll switch back."  They tried several people in CF in Buxton's absence, and no one grabbed the opportunity.

[NYCTK]

27 minutes ago, Gamblerssoftball said:

It seems like the manager and front office don't want anybody at a  "full time position" anywhere. It's one of the analytics things that I can't stand. Sometimes, a guy can't perform at his best when every day you have to look at the lineup in the dugout for your name, your position in the order, and where you're playing in the field. I'm not sure that's the way to get the most from your players.

Outside of Brooks Lee, that's not even true. We'll see if he's able to earn a full time position in 2025. 

Martin, Castro, and Farmer were utility players whose entire job it is to move around the field. 

And Miranda just wasn't good enough to earn a full time spot anywhere so he was slotted in occasionally out of position once he lost his spot at 3rd. 

There's no enough spots on the roster for every player to have one set position. And the Dodgers showed that position versatility is a huge asset, not some detriment to the players and team. 

[Fire Dan Gladden]

100% spin

[darin617]

Paddock should be dealt regardless of the ownership or payroll limitations. 

I have no problem with them not signing any "top tier free agents" and waiting for the right time to pounce on players looking for a deal before Spring Training.

If they are selling the team, make a few decent signings to improve the club. The new ownership will be flipping the bill anyways.

[Gamblerssoftball]

I do like having good versatility on the team. And I do realize that our core players have their positions when they play. It's the lineup juggling that seems excessive. I guess that will be resolved when some of our youth show they belong in the lineup daily. 

You guys make good points.

 

[Twins_Fan_For_Life]

I'm a teacher.  Zoll's comments remind me of every failing student who has promised that he will start doing his homework and studying for tests.  It sounds like a good plan, but I'll believe it when I see it.

[sweetmusicviola16]

4 hours ago, Original_JB said:

"When Castro was tendered this was evident."  Yeah, non-tendering the team's MVP would've really gone over well the way the last 6 months have played out.

Sadly since they resigned Joe Mauer in 2010 they've done little in regard to having the fans in mind. That's my opinion anyway. 

[bean5302]

2 hours ago, ziggy said:

What happens if the new owners want to cut payroll instead of add payroll?

There's as much chance of that as adding payroll.

 

 

Then there will be another 3,650 articles (10 per day) hating on billionaires on this site to wade through, haha.

[Doctor Gast]

I am encouraged that the Twins aren't desperate to make a bad trade. But I don't think they have ruled out dumping salary but they have taken down the Fire Sale sign, which makes me happy. Social media is still buzzing with trades for Lopez & Correa. But they still say they want to be creative (that never ends well). He also said that the heavy lifting is done. What! What heavy lifting? 1 Rule 5 pickup, 1 nonMLB-ready catcher trade, 1 nonMLB-ready 1Bman trade & some MiLB signings. Hope they got some significant trade offers in some real promising MLB-ready catchers or otherwise forget about trading Jeffers or Vazquez. Hoping fringe players will get the job done is dreaming. None of the fringe RPs last year panned out. We still could use a high-leverage LHRP in trade.

[JD-TWINS]

7 hours ago, Whitey333 said:

Just more Twins double speak and a writers attempt to spin positive an organization that basically relies on hope and hype.  If we do get new ownership this year one of the first things they should do is dump Falvey and Baldelli and get Twins baseball back in vogue.  How does missing the playoffs 3 of the past 4 seasons, twice in horrible fashion indicate Falvey and company is doing a great job.  Most of the prospects brought up have done very little and have a lot to prove.  Falvey has produced one season with 90 wins or more and only one decent postseason and that didn't even go very far.

Another way to look at Falvey’s regime is that they have made the Playoffs 4 of his 7 years. In ‘24, a complete lack of performance by the players over the last 6 weeks squandered a near certain playoff berth.

In ‘24 the ownership decided to reduce the budget $25M for the season (16% reduction) back to 2021 spending level. Previously the spend had gone up about 5% annually.

FO signed a FA for $5.5M that lead the Team in RBI & HR & won a GG.

The Team was 17 games over .500 on August 12th. Ryan got hurt and the offense (the players) went in the tank!

SWR (acquired in trade) - Festa - Matthews - Morris - Adams - Raya - Culpepper - Lewis are all guys with potential to stick , in some capacity, on the Staff over the next 1-3 years.

Emma - Keaschall - Lee - Jenkins are all guys on a short list to impact lineup over next 1-3 years.

I can’t see a logical reason why the new ownership would not give the core of this FO a shot with a Top 14-17 payroll total for a year or two.

[NotAboutWinning]

2 hours ago, ziggy said:

What happens if the new owners want to cut payroll instead of add payroll?

There's as much chance of that as adding payroll.

 

 

I realize there are current owners that keep payrolls low in order to pocket revenue sharing as a income stream. It would be foolish to pay today's prices for a ballclub and do that. There are way better ways to generate revenue with $1.5bln.

[sweetmusicviola16]

1 hour ago, JD-TWINS said:

Another way to look at Falvey’s regime is that they have made the Playoffs 4 of his 7 years. In ‘24, a complete lack of performance by the players over the last 6 weeks squandered a near certain playoff berth.

In ‘24 the ownership decided to reduce the budget $25M for the season (16% reduction) back to 2021 spending level. Previously the spend had gone up about 5% annually.

FO signed a FA for $5.5M that lead the Team in RBI & HR & won a GG.

The Team was 17 games over .500 on August 12th. Ryan got hurt and the offense (the players) went in the tank!

SWR (acquired in trade) - Festa - Matthews - Morris - Adams - Raya - Culpepper - Lewis are all guys with potential to stick , in some capacity, on the Staff over the next 1-3 years.

Emma - Keaschall - Lee - Jenkins are all guys on a short list to impact lineup over next 1-3 years.

I can’t see a logical reason why the new ownership would not give the core of this FO a shot with a Top 14-17 payroll total for a year or two.

Lets not ignore the fact that the Twins feasted on the CWS, LAA and A's. Against winning teams and PO teams they played some .350 ball.  That shouldn't be ignored, and that they have done nothing to improve the team so that they can compete against the better teams. 

[stringer bell]

The Twins have some needs--1) left handed pitching and 2) another serviceable outfielder and it would be nice to be going with an established first baseman, but they have a good front three starters, the framework for a really good bullpen and three guys who could put up big numbers if they are healthy (and all three have missed a lot of time in the last couple years). Can they add without adding payroll? 

Maybe I'm wrong, but it seems that Falvey has been working with no margin since 2023. They weren't going to take on additional payroll, short term or long term, since then. It makes improving the team pretty tough.