Hold Up! The Twins Might Not Cut Payroll After All

[dxpavelka]

5 hours ago, NYCTK said:

Alonso. 

And he's not signing with the Twins. 

I believe what was said was that it remains an outrageous possibility.  And until he signs elsewhere, it does.  Like it or believe it or not.

[DocBauer]

The Twins announced no further payroll cuts. Then there was a bit of an obscure quote like "we aren't necessarily looking to increase payroll either". My question has always been: " Does that mean not lower than $130M, but also NOT LOWER than the payroll looked at the end of the season with the team coming back intact WITH arbitration dollars and raises calculated in"? Because that would mean at least $135M and maybe $140M.

Based on some rumors out there, and this recent comment, it would appear they are content to keep a status quo of around $140M. And why not? It's loose change with an impending $1.5B + pending sale. And if said sale goes through as quickly as possibly reported, the Pohlad's won't be making those payments anyway.

In regard to no moves, and any possible moves, there are still some possibilities available. I think we all knew no MAJOR moves were going to happen until new owners came in.

It's been my belief for some time that the BIG EARNING teams would still flash some big contracts. That's happened. But things have slowed to a crawl as of late. A lot of teams, including in the ALC, have sat pretty still so far. I've stated I expect some value signings to be available in January and early February as guys are just looking for a deal. Right now, that seems rather likely.

The rumor mill has stated there are teams interested in Paddack, but Falvey is looking for a decent return value, and not just a salary dump. Maybe he's looking for a decent LHRP or a solid RHOF? 

Not sure about moving Vazquez unless they eat some $, or sweeten the deal to move him. It's possible they keep either, or both.

IF either are moved, there's still a couple solid LHRP with good splits on the market that are looking for a home. There's a couple decent RHOF that fill a need that don't stink against RHP still waiting a place to play. There's even a couple catchers in wouldn't mind bringing in cheap if Vazquez's contract could be moved, or mostly moved.

I seriously doubt any major trades or signings will take place this offseason. But I don't think we expected any. But it's still possible to work the margins for a needle nudge for the 2025 roster.

[old nurse]

8 hours ago, FargoFanMan said:

Fans want big trades where the Twins seemingly win the trade just by the name. Fans want big FA signings based on a name. Maybe the people who get paid lots of money to make these decisions seen the situation and rather than making trades and eating money here and including this guy to save a million there just to get one guy here. Maybe it was more effective to just make moves on the fringes and roll this roster back. Logic tells me that makes more sense than making moves just to appease fans based on the names. Let’s be honest. If they traded 3 guys to save $12M what are they getting for $12M that replaces those guys and even marginally improves this team. 

Fans come with winning, not names 

[jorgenswest]

On 1/11/2025 at 3:04 PM, Cody Christie said:

It was widely reported that the Twins were expected to trim the club’s payroll for the 2025 season.

Widely reported or widely repeated?

Was first hand news of the expectation to trim payroll sourced several times by multiple reporters?

[Greglw3]

7 hours ago, Jocko87 said:

You need to get out more.

For a fan of the Twins since the 65 World Series season, it’s come to this but yes, you are right I should get out more! I spend almost all my time making and releasing music but when the Nashville weather gives a break, gotta walk in the sunshine and I’d love to still dance but 2 foot surgeries have made it harder.

All credit for a funny comeback line! :-)

[NYCTK]

5 hours ago, bean5302 said:

Then there will be another 3,650 articles (10 per day) hating on billionaires on this site to wade through, haha.

Frankly, too few. 

[NYCTK]

3 hours ago, sweetmusicviola16 said:

Lets not ignore the fact that the Twins feasted on the CWS, LAA and A's. Against winning teams and PO teams they played some .350 ball.  That shouldn't be ignored, and that they have done nothing to improve the team so that they can compete against the better teams. 

69-79 against teams that weren't literally the worst team in mlb history. 

[NYCTK]

2 hours ago, dxpavelka said:

I believe what was said was that it remains an outrageous possibility.  And until he signs elsewhere, it does.  Like it or believe it or not.

He's not signing with the Twins. This is no less irrational than hoping Soto would have signed with the Twins. 

[Jocko87]

18 minutes ago, Greglw3 said:

For a fan of the Twins since the 65 World Series season, it’s come to this but yes, you are right I should get out more! I spend almost all my time making and releasing music but when the Nashville weather gives a break, gotta walk in the sunshine and I’d love to still dance but 2 foot surgeries have made it harder.

All credit for a funny comeback line! :-)

I was thinking Sasaki over Profar, but no accounting for taste.

[IndianaTwin]

2 hours ago, DocBauer said:

The Twins announced no further payroll cuts. Then there was a bit of an obscure quote like "we aren't necessarily looking to increase payroll either". My question has always been: " Does that mean not lower than $130M, but also NOT LOWER than the payroll looked at the end of the season with the team coming back intact WITH arbitration dollars and raises calculated in"? Because that would mean at least $135M and maybe $140M.

Based on some rumors out there, and this recent comment, it would appear they are content to keep a status quo of around $140M. And why not? It's loose change with an impending $1.5B + pending sale. And if said sale goes through as quickly as possibly reported, the Pohlad's won't be making those payments anyway.

In regard to no moves, and any possible moves, there are still some possibilities available. I think we all knew no MAJOR moves were going to happen until new owners came in.

<SNIP>

I seriously doubt any major trades or signings will take place this offseason. But I don't think we expected any. But it's still possible to work the margins for a needle nudge for the 2025 roster.

I’ve been saying the same and would agree with Jorgenswest “widely reported or widely repeated” question. 

I’ve also commented that “needle nudging” describes this FO’s general MO anyway, so I’ll agree with your last paragraph as well. 

[Rosterman]

In 2023 the team revenue was above $350 million, which means the Twins should've easily had a payroll pushing towards $170m.

Even now, it should be $150m minimum. That they haven't figured out a television programming system, or a way to put more butts in the seats (which ties into TV outreach, folks). is their problem to solve.

The whole point of building the team a new stadium was to create a revenue force that would allow the team to be competitive in the needs of the current marketplace, and - in the least - allow the Twins to keep their own developed players into free agency. The purpose was NOT to increase the value of the team from $500m to $1.4-5-6 whatever billion. Pretty good return on the stadium investment, Pohlad Family!

[Kirby Killebrew]

With arbitration contracts done, Spotrac has our roster at $137.7 million.  https://www.spotrac.com/mlb/minnesota-twins/overview/_/year/2025

I think that's the best we can hope for. Assuming ownership is at its maximum -- or we can do a salary dump with Vazquez and Paddack (i.e,, basically give them away for little or nothing) and sign a low tier righthanded OF/1B -- our roster is what it is.

Best case scenario for 2025, IMO: if we stay healthier than last year, we could win more than last year, maybe as many as 90 games.

Most likely scenario: lack of righthanded corner OF, lack of LH relief pitching, shaky defense at first base and various random injuries make us a .500 team and leave us sighing that a $150 million budget would have had us in the playoffs.  

Your thought?

[old nurse]

2 hours ago, jorgenswest said:

Widely reported or widely repeated?

Was first hand news of the expectation to trim payroll sourced several times by multiple reporters?

That is how it works now. Repeat a hundred times and is is widely reported 

[stringer bell]

4 minutes ago, Kirby Killebrew said:

With arbitration contracts done, Spotrac has our roster at $137.7 million.  https://www.spotrac.com/mlb/minnesota-twins/overview/_/year/2025

I think that's the best we can hope for. Assuming ownership is at its maximum -- or we can do a salary dump with Vazquez and Paddack (i.e,, basically give them away for little or nothing) and sign a low tier righthanded OF/1B -- our roster is what it is.

Best case scenario for 2025, IMO: if we stay healthier than last year, we could win more than last year, maybe as many as 90 games.

Most likely scenario: lack of righthanded corner OF, lack of LH relief pitching, shaky defense at first base and various random injuries make us a .500 team and leave us sighing that a $150 million budget would have had us in the playoffs.  

Your thought?

Sounds about right to me.. There are lots of unknowns, of course, but seems to be the range of outcomes we should expect.

[dxpavelka]

3 hours ago, NYCTK said:

He's not signing with the Twins. This is no less irrational than hoping Soto would have signed with the Twins. 

suit yourself

 

[awmonahan]

It would be great if payroll could stay at $140mil, but I assume the statement is a message to the trade market that it isn't a firewall more than an update on payroll levels. Budgets rarely change easily. 

[NYCTK]

9 hours ago, stringer bell said:

Sounds about right to me.. There are lots of unknowns, of course, but seems to be the range of outcomes we should expect.

Well, the the range of outcomes also includes a season where Wallner hits 200, Festa needs TJ, SWR has a 5.7 ERA, etc etc and the Twins win 70. 

[NYCTK]

7 hours ago, dxpavelka said:

suit yourself

 

There's no contract that the Twins will offer that the Mets don't match. 

BTW it's looking like 3 years $100 with annual opt outs. 

[dxpavelka]

8 minutes ago, NYCTK said:

There's no contract that the Twins will offer that the Mets don't match. 

BTW it's looking like 3 years $100 with annual opt outs. 

So basically the same contract that Correa signed when he first came here.  Interesting.  Just cuz the Mets match doesn't mean he has to accept the Mets offer.  Boras would likely be inclined to NOT accept that offer from the Mets.

[NYCTK]

6 minutes ago, dxpavelka said:

So basically the same contract that Correa signed when he first came here.  Interesting.  Just cuz the Mets match doesn't mean he has to accept the Mets offer.  Boras would likely be inclined to NOT accept that offer from the Mets.

Not Boras's decision to make. 

Like I said, it's as useful talking about the Twins signing Soto. 

What is actually interesting is NEXT offseason, and a new obscenely rich owner perhaps deciding he wants to overpay to bring in a different (and better) first baseman Vlad Jr. We know he hates the Yankees and doesn't want to play for them, so that makes it more interesting for the rest of the league. 

[laloesch]

Complete word salad statement.  That is the longest string of sentences I've heard from a GM that said absolutely nothing.

[laloesch]

19 hours ago, bean5302 said:

How I read this: Jeremy Zoll is better at PR than Joe Pohlad. We've all seen Falvey can't define or follow a budget. This just reads like more incompetence to me. I do not care about the budget. I care whether or not the front office finds a "creative" way to make the team better.

Honestly I was not impressed AT ALL by the statement from Jeremy Zoll.  Total word salad statement he made.

[NotAboutWinning]

40 minutes ago, laloesch said:

Complete word salad statement.  That is the longest string of sentences I've heard from a GM that said absolutely nothing.

A Falvey protege 😕

[Greglw3]

22 hours ago, Jocko87 said:

I was thinking Sasaki over Profar, but no accounting for taste.

Mr. Jocko,

I wrote the following in my Twins Daily 25 man roster planner on Nov. 17, 2024:

[dxpavelka]

16 hours ago, NYCTK said:

Not Boras's decision to make. 

Like I said, it's as useful talking about the Twins signing Soto. 

What is actually interesting is NEXT offseason, and a new obscenely rich owner perhaps deciding he wants to overpay to bring in a different (and better) first baseman Vlad Jr. We know he hates the Yankees and doesn't want to play for them, so that makes it more interesting for the rest of the league. 

Vlad will be in Boston by August.

 

[NYCTK]

6 hours ago, dxpavelka said:

Vlad will be in Boston by August.

 

Perhaps. Way more likely to be a Twin than Alonso though. 

[FargoFanMan]

On 1/12/2025 at 6:09 PM, old nurse said:

Fans come with winning, not names 

The average fan comes with winning. The Twins Daily fan scrutinizes the team because they’re not winning enough, or not winning the right way or winning too much. “Joe Mauers a bum!” “Fire Rocco!” “Derek Falvey has never made a good trade!” “If the cheap Pohlads would just give an unlimited budget they could sign all the good free agents!” The average fan is pretty reasonable. Twins Daily fans will never be reasonable. We know too much lol! We want the name. The name means we’re relevant on the national stage. The name means we’re not just the lowly little Twins. The name means we get a chair with the big boys. The name means we’ve got another person to blame for the shortcomings and a name to brag about in the highlights. If we get the name it means that all the people on the team did what we think is good to get the name regardless of the name ever doing anything meaningful for the team. People come see the team to watch the name. It’s all about the name. 

[Craig Arko]

3 minutes ago, FargoFanMan said:

The average fan comes with winning. The Twins Daily fan scrutinizes the team because they’re not winning enough, or not winning the right way or winning too much. “Joe Mauers a bum!” “Fire Rocco!” “Derek Falvey has never made a good trade!” “If the cheap Pohlads would just give an unlimited budget they could sign all the good free agents!” The average fan is pretty reasonable. Twins Daily fans will never be reasonable. We know too much lol! We want the name. The name means we’re relevant on the national stage. The name means we’re not just the lowly little Twins. The name means we get a chair with the big boys. The name means we’ve got another person to blame for the shortcomings and a name to brag about in the highlights. If we get the name it means that all the people on the team did what we think is good to get the name regardless of the name ever doing anything meaningful for the team. People come see the team to watch the name. It’s all about the name. 

This is why Twins Daily fans are not a very reliable measuring stick.

[FargoFanMan]

1 minute ago, Craig Arko said:

This is why Twins Daily fans are not a very reliable measuring stick.

Exactly, this is why I think it might be ok to just roll this roster back again without any major moves. They’ve added a few pieces on the edges. There’ll be a few more prospects just a phone call away that are ready. A little bit more depth just based on being closer to the majors and a bit more improved. It might be a good move to not do anything drastic. If they’re ok with Vazquez as the catcher maybe that’s good. If they want to give Paddack another try then why not. If they want to plug Castro in around the field I think that’s positive. I’ll trust the guys that see these guys day in day out. They still have the potential to be a really good team. If they fall flat on their faces I’ll be at the front of the line asking questions. Right here on Twins Daily lol!

[dxpavelka]

16 hours ago, NYCTK said:

Perhaps. Way more likely to be a Twin than Alonso though. 

never happen