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Posted

Minnesota relies on a two-catcher alternating system to survive the season, but now they need to replace one half of their tandem. They have to do it cheaply, too, but there's good news.

Image courtesy of © Kirby Lee-Imagn Images

Though it's theoretically possible for the Twins to trade either Ryan Jeffers or Christian Vázquez this winter, it seems much more likely that they'll ship out Vázquez. He's set to cost them about twice as much as Jeffers in 2025, and while he's a far superior defender to Jeffers, it's the younger, strapping Jeffers who can deliver major offensive firepower when he gets hot. The Twins might slightly prefer a great defender to a good hitter, but they have to prioritize their budget, and they have Jeffers under team control through 2026, unlike Vázquez.

Let's imagine the roster after a Vázquez trade, then. Over the last two seasons, the Twins have balanced their catching workload between their two backstops as evenly as any team in baseball history over a similar span. Though they won't have Vázquez back to carry his half of the load in 2025, they'll want someone they can trust to work roughly in parity with Jeffers. With the free-agent pickings slim and their financial constraints telling, though, finding the right player to fill that void could be tricky.

Enter James McCann. No, he's not sexy. McCann, who will turn 35 in June, has become a professional backup catcher, playing between 60 and 70 games in each of the last three seasons. He's not an above-average hitter or an above-average defender. However, he'd be a huge step up offensively from Vázquez, who has put up DRC+ figures of 67 and 72 in his two seasons with the Twins, according to Baseball Prospectus. McCann has posted 89, 91, and 99 marks since the start of 2022. He doesn't have great plate discipline, but he's still capable of hitting the ball quite hard, and runs slightly above-average barrel rates. Defensively, he's a subpar framer, but he throws well.

McCann is at his best when pulling the ball in the air, which is part of why his numbers have been fairly hideous for the last two seasons. He has all-fields punch, because he's exceptionally strong, but he couldn't find the range to hit the ball out to right field with any consistency at Camden Yards. Meanwhile, the high, distant wall in left field stole a bunch of home runs from him, though it turned most of them into doubles, rather than outs.

d98a494c-ae49-4711-8f26-4c4f0e545863.jpg

In the image above, I've overlaid his hits onto Target Field's dimensions, to show how much he would benefit from joining Minnesota. It's not a perfect form of analysis, but it gets us closer to seeing his real value. Here's an example of the types of balls that Walltimore kept in the park over the last two years, but which would easily leave the yard in Minneapolis.

Of the 372 hitters with at least 400 plate appearances over the last two seasons, only two had larger gaps between their expected weighted on-base average (xwOBA) and their actual results (wOBA) than did McCann. Those numbers can tell their own kinds of lies, and at his age, there's every chance that McCann's skill set will crumble all at once. On balance, though, he's a solid bet, and the market for catchers has already petered out a bit. Guys like Danny Jansen and Gary Sánchez ($8.5 million apiece on one-year deals) are off the board. So are the slightly better options—the guys who earned two-year deals, like Carson Kelly, Kyle Higashioka, and Travis d'Arnaud

There are still teams who want and need catching help, but McCann slots in at a lower tier than any of the players named above, and he's unlikely to be in high demand. The Twins could probably snare him for $4 million or less on a one-year deal, and at that price, he would give them similar production to that of Vázquez, plus the flexibility to improve other aspects of the roster. McCann is the right target to replace Vázquez, but before the Twins can even consider being the team who snaps him up, they have to find a taker for Vázquez. Frustrating though salary dump trades always are, this one needs to be a priority for the team as the new year begins, to pave the way for an overall improvement.


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Posted

Have always liked McCann, so this would be interesting.

Must question your comment, however, that signing him for $4M would give them financial flexibility.  As I understand, trading Vazquez and signing McCann would bring their budget into balance.  So they would still need to move Paddack to find some dollars to fill another need.

Posted
10 minutes ago, thelanges5 said:

What if the payroll dumping assumption is wrong? I have seen they won’t reduce payroll but have they ever come out and given a number? What if they just run it back?

This.  There doesn't seem to be a ton of urgency to trade to dump salary, AND they tendered Willi Castro (which was the right decision regardless).  Maybe "won't cut payroll" just means that they will roll the team back out there and hope for some positives to go their way this summer.  Probably not, but a guy can hope!

 

Posted
On 12/31/2024 at 8:17 AM, sweetmusicviola16 said:

So we're going to take a step backwards to save 1-2mil, if that? Trade Zazquez and eat 4-5 mil, then sign McCann for 4mil. In the effort you just made your team much worse. Creative.

I honestly couldn't care less who the backup catcher is.

But how is McCann "much worse" than Vazquez? Vazquez hasn't had an OPS over .600 since he got to Minnesota. There is no amount of defense that could make up for Vazquez's lack of offense.

Posted

I'd rather give Gasper a shot at backup rather than spending 4-5 million on McCann. His stats are almost identical to Vasquez the last couple years. If we're able to dump Vasquez's 10 million dollar salary, it doesn't make sense to use 4 of it to replace him with the same production. I say bet on Gasper's bat and use the 10 million, 17 million of we can dump Paddack, on a first baseman, RH outfielder and a good lefty for our pen.

Posted

I would be fine with McCann.  I still think a team with young pitchers who would benefit a lot more with someone like Vasquez instead of McCann would be the Miami Marlins.  Their catching situation is horrible.  Vasquez would be an offensive superstar compared to what they have for catchers.  But Vasquez's game calling and pitch framing would be hugely beneficial to the young pitchers the Marlins have.  

The same qualities that Vasquez would bring to the young Marlins staff are probably good reasons to just roll with a Vasquez/Jeffers tandem again in 2025 and then just let Vasquez walk at the end of the 2025 season, or spin him off at the trade deadline if the Twins are not contending.  

The guy I would have liked the Twins to have added had they been more aggressive early in the off season was d'Arnaud.  He could have helped at C/1B/DH and is by far the best offensive threat of anyone mentioned in OP.  Plus, he's no stranger to playoff baseball either.  

Posted

Would this be like the Dodgers someone to take enough of Margot’s salary in order to give free agent Kiki Hernandez that salary? Margot contributed -0.9 or -0.2 *WAR last year. Hernandez contributed 1.3 or 0.7.

McCann is a free agent. Why wouldn’t another team sign him rather than pay more for Vazquez? They would do it if they saw Vazquez as clearly more valuable. If the Twins have to send money then the savings would be minimal. The Twins need to go with the better player. They didn't last year.

 

*WAR from Fangraphs and baseball reference varies. Is it fair to say that Hernandez was more valuable upon the range of 1 to 2 wins?

Posted
34 minutes ago, nicksaviking said:

I honestly could care less who the backup catcher is.

But how is McCann "much worse" than Vazquez? Vazquez hasn't had an OPS over .600 since he got to Minnesota. There is no amount of defense that could make up for Vazquez's lack of offense.

The Houston Astros and Martin Maldonado might disagree with you. 

I'm not real familiar with McCann's catching skills so I'll leave that to someone else to determine.

A pitcher needs to have confidence in their catcher or stuff goes south in a hurry. Every manager looks for a catcher who can hit and catch, winning teams focus on catchers who catch. The bat is a bonus.

Posted

I'd take McCann over Vazquez if they could get somebody to eat a bunch of that 10 mil. Elias Diaz is the catcher I think they could get signed for cheap and replace Vazquez's defense while bringing some improved offense. I'm not sure why a team would trade for Vazquez instead of just signing one of these guys themselves unless the Twins add in a prospect sweetener, but if his name and reputation carry as much weight with some front office out there as it seems to in certain circles around Twins Daily then maybe they can convince somebody to take him and then sign one of these guys.

Posted

Looking at Vazquez, the balance of what we'll need to eat & what we'll end up saving & what we'd pay for McCann is practically zero. Looking at Fangraph Vazquez is projected at 1.3 WAR over 0.5 for McCann. IMO dWAR doesn't do justice to Vazquez defensively. Vazquez has settled in the Twins' pitching system where he can focus more on his hitting, so hitting is less of an issue but the big difference is all the aspects of Vazquez's defense that make him much more desirable. Zero savings, much less desirable catching situation does not solve the current or future catching problem. It's a hard pass. 

Jeffers isn't a primary catcher, he has only 1 more year left after this year it'll be difficult to trade for anything after this year. To extend him, Boras will want top-catching dollars for a backup catcher, that'll create another black hole if FO chooses to extend him. Trade Jeffers for a promising young starting MLB-ready catcher & find another via trade to help out (Gasper & Camargo won't cut it) with actual savings of $4.7M. Then IMO Vazquez has more interest in years than money & would prefer to stay put. So we could renegotiate his contract for a 2 yr.,  $6M/ yr. starting this year, a $4M savings. A total of $8.7M in savings & solving our future catching problem by trading Jeffers compared to trading Vazquez with zero savings, doesn't solve the future catching problem & inferior catching core.

 

Posted
16 minutes ago, old nurse said:

There would be a premise that someone would want Vazquez at 10 million and not McCann at somewhat less money.  When Jansen and Sanchez can get 8.5 million  McCann can probably be close to that. It makes no sense to shuffle catchers 

Exactly... You are spot on. I can't see anything that makes sense here.  

What teams wants Vazquez at the entire 10 million when Jansen and Sanchez costs 8.5 million?

How much money will the Twins have to eat just to move Vazquez in order to clear some cash to possibly spend? 

McCann is basically Vazquez value wise. They are carbon copies of each other with McCann just one year older. 

McCann cashed in a big year with the White Sox in 2020 for a 4 year 40 million contract with the Mets in 2021. 2 years later... the Mets traded him to the Orioles with the Mets eating 19 million of the remaining 24 million getting a low level prospect in return. So, the Orioles valued McCann for two years at 2.5 million AAV in order to part with a low level prospect. 

So if you consider what the Mets ate. Now consider the Vazquez similarity. He cashed in a decent year with the Red Sox and Astros in 2022 for a 3 year 30 million contract with the Twins. Look at Vazquez and then look at McCann and then look at how much money the Mets ate to get McCann of their roster for the remaining two years of his contract.

The question remains... How much money would the Twins have to eat to shed Vazquez?         

Which leads to the next question to make the proposed scenario work. With Vazquez and McCann performing nearly the same over the course of their big contracts and similar age. If the Twins don't eat significant money in a trade. Why would any team trade for Vazquez for more money when they can just sign McCann for much less especially when McCann was better offensively last year?

If the Twins have to eat significant money which I assume they do. Trading Vazquez, eating money and signing McCann would leave how much to spend on Pete Alonso? I assume... not much if you could convince a team to take Vazquez with McCann STILL ON THE BOARD.  

This is why Camargo sitting on the bench for 20 games on the roster watching Vazquez produce a .575 OPS is a HUGE deal. Camargo would make the minimum for 3 years before reaching arbitration. Camargo making the minimum frees up money that could be spent elsewhere and all he had to do was clear an extremely low bar set by Vazquez. 

Yet the Twins didn't believe that Vazquez could do that. So he sat and watched.  

Develop catchers or Die via the yearly commitment to poor offensive veteran catchers one after another after another after another.  

 

Posted
47 minutes ago, LambchoP said:

I'd rather give Gasper a shot at backup rather than spending 4-5 million on McCann. His stats are almost identical to Vasquez the last couple years. If we're able to dump Vasquez's 10 million dollar salary, it doesn't make sense to use 4 of it to replace him with the same production. I say bet on Gasper's bat and use the 10 million, 17 million of we can dump Paddack, on a first baseman, RH outfielder and a good lefty for our pen.

Vazquez had -0.3 bWAR and a 64 OPS+ in his first year with the Twins followed by -0.2 bWAR and a 60 OPS+ in his 2nd year. 0.9 fWAR and 65 wRC+ and 0.8 fWAR and 60 wRC+ if you're a Fangraphs person. 

McCann the last 2 years had 0.5 bWAR and 79 OPS+ and 0.8 bWAR and 94 OPS+. 0.3 fWAR and 77 wRC+ and 0.2 fWAR and 89 wRC+.

Those numbers are not almost identical. If you're a big believer in defense first/only behind the plate then you want Vazquez, but if you care about offense at all then McCann is very clearly the significantly better player. McCann's .646 and .667 OPS numbers the last 2 years may not be anything super impressive on the surface, but Vazquez failing to OPS .600 (.598 and .575) in either of his 2 years with the Twins is another level of offensive futility. 

Posted
1 hour ago, chpettit19 said:

Vazquez had -0.3 bWAR and a 64 OPS+ in his first year with the Twins followed by -0.2 bWAR and a 60 OPS+ in his 2nd year. 0.9 fWAR and 65 wRC+ and 0.8 fWAR and 60 wRC+ if you're a Fangraphs person. 

McCann the last 2 years had 0.5 bWAR and 79 OPS+ and 0.8 bWAR and 94 OPS+. 0.3 fWAR and 77 wRC+ and 0.2 fWAR and 89 wRC+.

Those numbers are not almost identical. If you're a big believer in defense first/only behind the plate then you want Vazquez, but if you care about offense at all then McCann is very clearly the significantly better player. McCann's .646 and .667 OPS numbers the last 2 years may not be anything super impressive on the surface, but Vazquez failing to OPS .600 (.598 and .575) in either of his 2 years with the Twins is another level of offensive futility. 

Agreed... McCann was a much better hitter and still not good enough.

In the end... It's like choosing between a 5 dollar cup of coffee at Starbucks and 5 dollar cup of coffee at Caribou. 

Make your own. Spend that 5 dollars on something else. 

Posted
19 minutes ago, Riverbrian said:

Agreed... McCann was a much better hitter and still good enough.

In the end... It's like choosing between a 5 dollar cup of coffee at Starbucks and 5 dollar cup of coffee at Caribou. 

Make your own. Spend that 5 dollars on something else. 

Oh, I wish they would make their own, but that's not an option for 2025. They don't seem to trust the coffee they have in the pantry. So, it's either the 5 dollar coffee they have or getting rid of that cup and getting one from a different store.

They've been bad at developing catching. To be fair, most teams are. There's a reason the same handful of guys get passed around and always have contracts waiting for them. Like James McCann. I'm actually quite interested to see if there's any change in what the catching in the league looks like after the robo umps get introduced to the majors. The smart teams have been tracking how things are going in the minors and have figured out what they need defensively from catchers moving forward. Framing won't be a thing anymore so the Christian Vazquez's of the world will take a hit. But you still need to call a good game and block pitches and throw out runners. Maybe the Twins just mistimed things and thought the change was going to be here already and that's why they don't have any defensive catchers ready? The Sam Basallo style catching prospect may become the new prototype soon, though. And then we'll be ready! Oh wait, they don't have any offensive catchers ready either. Never mind. Yes, they need to step up their catcher development. But I hope they do it in a way that fits with the robo ump era.

Posted

How is anyone gonna pay Vasquez  $10M to play besides us. And why would we retain $5M salary in a trade? We are stuck with him and the Pohlads are going to suck up the 142M.  Lastly, why dump Paddack? He is still young and can be a horse in the bullpen. His salary isn’t backbreaking high.

Posted
1 hour ago, sweetmusicviola16 said:

We have Vazquez, and I think that is how it will stay. Nobody wants him for 10mil. Falvey overpaid and will have to live with that.

Someone is going to have to get injured before a team is really interested in acquiring Vazquez.

Posted
29 minutes ago, chpettit19 said:

Oh, I wish they would make their own, but that's not an option for 2025. They don't seem to trust the coffee they have in the pantry. So, it's either the 5 dollar coffee they have or getting rid of that cup and getting one from a different store.

They've been bad at developing catching. To be fair, most teams are. There's a reason the same handful of guys get passed around and always have contracts waiting for them. Like James McCann. I'm actually quite interested to see if there's any change in what the catching in the league looks like after the robo umps get introduced to the majors. The smart teams have been tracking how things are going in the minors and have figured out what they need defensively from catchers moving forward. Framing won't be a thing anymore so the Christian Vazquez's of the world will take a hit. But you still need to call a good game and block pitches and throw out runners. Maybe the Twins just mistimed things and thought the change was going to be here already and that's why they don't have any defensive catchers ready? The Sam Basallo style catching prospect may become the new prototype soon, though. And then we'll be ready! Oh wait, they don't have any offensive catchers ready either. Never mind. Yes, they need to step up their catcher development. But I hope they do it in a way that fits with the robo ump era.

"Framing" is junk science.  An umpire consistently fooled by "framing" should not have the job.

Posted
51 minutes ago, chpettit19 said:

Oh, I wish they would make their own, but that's not an option for 2025. They don't seem to trust the coffee they have in the pantry. So, it's either the 5 dollar coffee they have or getting rid of that cup and getting one from a different store.

They've been bad at developing catching. To be fair, most teams are. There's a reason the same handful of guys get passed around and always have contracts waiting for them. Like James McCann. I'm actually quite interested to see if there's any change in what the catching in the league looks like after the robo umps get introduced to the majors. The smart teams have been tracking how things are going in the minors and have figured out what they need defensively from catchers moving forward. Framing won't be a thing anymore so the Christian Vazquez's of the world will take a hit. But you still need to call a good game and block pitches and throw out runners. Maybe the Twins just mistimed things and thought the change was going to be here already and that's why they don't have any defensive catchers ready? The Sam Basallo style catching prospect may become the new prototype soon, though. And then we'll be ready! Oh wait, they don't have any offensive catchers ready either. Never mind. Yes, they need to step up their catcher development. But I hope they do it in a way that fits with the robo ump era.

The very second that framing gets removed from the equation. I'll say Yippee loud enough to be heard in Crookston. 

As for today... In light of the value attached to catchers in the marketplace.  I'd would have been hyper focused on the development of catchers. I would have started day one and done my best to pile them up and trade the extras for the value returned. The Dodgers trade extra catching value despite drafting in the upper 20's every year. 

However... At a minimum. Catcher is such a defensive position... so much so that there are many light hitting defensive catchers across the baseball landscape that still cost 4 million.

Why can't teams (plural) at the very least... produce a catcher or two on the farm with the defensive skill necessary but can't hit a lick. I know we want them to hit and catch but the market is already paying 4 million for catch only. 

It just leads questions that I can't answer.

How bad do the Twins think Camargo was that he couldn't get some exercise on the 26 man roster last year with a .575 in front of him blocking the way?

How bad is the sum total of catchers across the league if Camargo still has a 40 man roster spot despite not getting exercise with a .575 in front of him?

How bad is the sum total of catchers across the league if McCann is the answer to any question. 

The Market value of catching is so inflated and it has been for years. The Twins (And other teams) by failing to cash in on that inflation... have simply dropped the development ball and every time they dip into the McCann bucket they extend the  dropping of the development ball with no end in sight.    

 

Posted
2 hours ago, nicksaviking said:

I honestly could care less who the backup catcher is.

But how is McCann "much worse" than Vazquez? Vazquez hasn't had an OPS over .600 since he got to Minnesota. There is no amount of defense that could make up for Vazquez's lack of offense.

There is no amount of offense that can make up for Jeffers , run at will, defense.

Posted
1 hour ago, chpettit19 said:

Vazquez had -0.3 bWAR and a 64 OPS+ in his first year with the Twins followed by -0.2 bWAR and a 60 OPS+ in his 2nd year. 0.9 fWAR and 65 wRC+ and 0.8 fWAR and 60 wRC+ if you're a Fangraphs person. 

McCann the last 2 years had 0.5 bWAR and 79 OPS+ and 0.8 bWAR and 94 OPS+. 0.3 fWAR and 77 wRC+ and 0.2 fWAR and 89 wRC+.

Those numbers are not almost identical. If you're a big believer in defense first/only behind the plate then you want Vazquez, but if you care about offense at all then McCann is very clearly the significantly better player. McCann's .646 and .667 OPS numbers the last 2 years may not be anything super impressive on the surface, but Vazquez failing to OPS .600 (.598 and .575) in either of his 2 years with the Twins is another level of offensive futility. 

Fangraphs uses the unstable pitch framing metric which creates wild swings in catcher value. If we average things between bWAR and fWAR...

Vazquez +0.3 avg WAR in 98 games per year
McCann +0.5 avg WAR in 63 games per year

McCann is the better player by a fair margin. Of course, I'd rather use bWAR for catchers because I dislike "catcher framing" as I don't think it's a valid metric.

Posted

OK, I'll bite. McCann is a solid, experienced, better offense replacement  for Vazquez. I also like Elias Diaz for the same reasons and he might cost less than McCann.

But this idea of works or has any merit if the Twins can clear all or nearly all of Vazquez's salary. I'm not saying they can or they can't do so, but I'm sure it would include someone from rookie or A ball to balance the trade. But as already, accuratey pointed out, eating $3-4M of Vazquez's deal and then signing someone else for $4M doesn't really save anything. The best you end up with is a little better bat for 1yr.

A] Find a way to clear all $10M of the deal, sign someone, possibly improve the offense a little, andhave a little $ to spend elsewhere.

B] Stay status quo for a 2025 and be content with the defense and experience Vazquez provides and hope for the best with his bat.

Not sure what other choice there really is.

What's so frustrating to me...with no disrespect toward Vazquez...is how damn stubborn the FO is at times in taking a look at players already on hand, such as Camargo. His bat came alive in 2022. He performed even better at St Paul in 2023. Why do so many dismiss that because he had an off 2024? He's also got a 31% caught stealing rate in his career. How bad would he have to be to defensively...not saying he's bad...to receive an opportunity to display his game at the ML level to replace Vazquez's anemic bat?

It's hard to find good catching. But you have a young catcher with potential on your hands and you'd rather spend FA $ or prospects to fill the spot vs giving your own prospect an opportunity? It just doesn't make sense and it's maddening to me.

Posted

For the folks wanting to hand the backup catcher job to Mickey Gasper... that's a big leap. Gasper has been able to catch about 15%-20% of base runners at AA/AAA so maybe 10-15% at the MLB level? He's struggled with that skill, and Gasper has allowed quite a few passed balls. Jeffers' MiLB career was 13 passed balls in 1050 innings, while Gasper has allowed 18 passed balls in 920 innings. The Yankees deployed Gasper as a utility player with the ability to catch, and the moment a catching prospect was promoted to Gasper's level, Gasper gave up his catcher duties to the prospect.

Gasper's also been very passive at the plate, swinging at less than 60% of strikes at AAA (only 33% of strikes at the MLB level in SSSS). That won't fly at the MLB level. Gasper needs some consistent playing time at catcher before I'd really want to rely on him, and the Twins have essentially nothing in the minors in case of emergency. 

Posted

Long before the trendy and inexact science of "framing", there were catchers who always had a job because they can catch. Drew Butera was one such guy and long before him, Phil Roof and Andy Echebarren (RIP) among others. Catching is really hard and brutal on the body. A fair amount of wild pitches are caught or stopped by the best catchers. These statistics are impossible to quantify because one wild pitch bounces in the dirt while another goes five feet over the head of the umpire. 

The people who can tell you who the best catchers are mostly keep their mouth shut in the interest of the team. Pitchers know. Everyone wants a Joe Mauer behind the plate because he stops everything and then grabs a bat and hits too. Teams make difficult choices based on their pitching staffs and options. Houston rode the worst hitter in baseball, Martin Maldonado, simply because he could catch the ball. Once his catching and throwing deteriorated, he was replaced. 

The Twins have a fair catching tandem for now. They don't need to dump Vazquez for payroll considerations. If the budget calls for a slight decrease, there are a number of teams that will take Chris Paddack, which solves the financial problem if there even is one. A much bigger concern is next year. Without catchers, the game doesn't work. I think it is past time for the Twins to make a few moves to bring in a catching prospect or two. They may need to overpay to get on the front side of this void in the organization.

Posted

1) No guarantee that Vazquez will be traded.  Even if he is, no guarantee the Twins won't have to eat some salary.

2) The Twins just traded for a guy that would effectively fill the Vazquez role should he be gone.

3) McCann is not an upgrade over Vazquez.

This article might have made more sense before the Gasper trade.  Now it feels dated...

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