3 Twins to Watch for Potential Regression in 2025

[Cody Christie]

Few players can produce at top performance for multiple seasons in a row. Baseball is a game where age, injuries, and streakiness can hamper performance. So, which Twins might be heading for regression in 2025?

 

Image courtesy of Benny Sieu-USA TODAY Sports

As the Minnesota Twins look to rebound in 2025, their success hinges on several key players replicating their standout performances from a year ago. However, regression is a natural part of baseball, and some players are more likely to take a step back than others. Here are three Twins who could be candidates for regression in the upcoming season and why their performance trends are worth monitoring.

Carlos Correa: Can He Stay Dominant?
Correa was the Twins' best position player during the first half of the 2024 season, earning All-Star honors and putting up numbers that rivaled the best stretches of his career. In 75 games, he hit .308/.377/.520 (.896) with 13 home runs and 16 doubles. His power surged, his glove remained elite, and he lived up to his status as the team’s highest-paid player. Unfortunately, plantar fasciitis sidelined him for the second half of the year, leaving questions about his ability to sustain such a high production level over a full season.

Regression isn’t about Correa falling off a cliff but about him leveling out. His first-half numbers were well above his career averages in several categories, and expecting him to maintain that level over 162 games might be unfair. His SLG had the highest difference on the team compared to his xSLG.The Twins need him to be productive, but they’ll also need to manage his workload to keep him healthy and impactful deep into the season. There have been rumors about the Twins potentially trading Correa, but that would be a lose-lose proposition for the front office. 

Byron Buxton: Health Remains the X-Factor
Buxton proved some of his doubters wrong in 2024 by playing over 100 games for just the second time in his career. He returned to centerfield after being a full-time DH in 2023 and hit .279/.335/.524 (.859) with a 137 OPS+ and 48 extra-base hits. For the first time in six seasons, he is having a healthy offseason where he doesn’t need surgery or rehab. It gives hope that he can repeat that availability in 2025. But Buxton’s history of injuries cannot be ignored, and the Twins need to be realistic about the potential for setbacks.

If Buxton misses time, the team’s depth in centerfield will be tested. Minnesota has used players like Willi Castro and Austin Martin in center field, but neither match Buxton’s potential to impact the game on both sides of the ball. The Twins certainly hope Buxton will be able to play in 100 games for a second consecutive season, but that seems unlikely with his track record. Insurance plans will be critical to sustaining success if regression strikes in the form of missed games.

Matt Wallner: Feast or Famine?
Wallner emerged as one of the Twins’ best hitters in 2024, providing a powerful left-handed bat that could change the game with one swing. In 75 games, he hit .259/.372/.523 (.894) with a 149 OPS+ and 31 extra-base hits. However, his player profile comes with inherent risks. Wallner’s high strikeout rate (36.4 K%) and streaky nature make him prone to slumps, and opposing pitchers may adjust to exploit his weaknesses after parts of three seasons at the big-league level.

Wallner’s raw power is undeniable, and his ability to barrel up the ball makes him a valuable asset. Yet, if his plate discipline falters or pitchers learn how to neutralize him, his offensive production could take a significant hit. Among Twins hitters, his SLG was +.055 higher than his xSLG, the second-highest total on the team behind Correa. The Twins will likely live with his streakiness, but they’ll need other players to step up when Wallner hits the inevitable cold spells.

The Twins enter 2025 with high expectations, and these three players are vital to the team’s success. While regression is possible for Correa, Buxton, and Wallner, it doesn’t mean they won’t still be key contributors. The challenge for the Twins will be maximizing their strengths while mitigating the risks of natural performance dips. Smart roster management and a deep bench could help the team weather any storms that come their way.

Which player should the Twins be most worried about for 2025? Leave a comment and start the discussion. 

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[LambchoP]

I'd add Royce Lewis to this list as well. If he continues to slump like he did in the second half last year, or if he's on and off the IL all year then we'll be in trouble. If he can hit like he did in short periods in 23 and 24, and stay healthy, it could be a career years for him. I could see a .280 AVG and 30 HR being possible. Overall we need improvement and health from just about everybody. We cannot rely on just one or two guys to carry our lineup. Same with our rotation and bullpen. I do like our core, I just worry about depth and injury replacement. I think we still really need a first baseman, a RH hitting OF who can cover CF and a lefty reliever like Coloumbe. We can't add anything until we move Vasquez and or Paddack so they really need to step up efforts to do just that.

[Fire Dan Gladden]

You listed the top three OPS+ position players still on the roster.  Add Miranda and Larnach to your list and no one else was over 110.  If those three drop, then an already negative outlook for 2025 looks devastatingly bad.

[tony&rodney]

22 minutes ago, Fire Dan Gladden said:

You listed the top three OPS+ position players still on the roster.  Add Miranda and Larnach to your list and no one else was over 110.  If those three drop, then an already negative outlook for 2025 looks devastatingly bad.

Yes, this reads like a preview of the White Sox precipitous fall. Carlos Correa and Byron Buxton are here to stay a few more years due to the no trade clause.

If the Twins brain trust have any fears whatsoever about Matt Wallner, there are several teams looking for a right fielder. Pittsburgh would probably send over Jared Jones. Somebody in the organization should have a handle on evaluating the talent and from there the team stands pat or makes some deals.

The other side of this equation suggests that other teams see little to no value in discussing transactions with Minnesota due to the paucity of talent on their roster. That doesn't seem realistic. 

I'm guessing that the front office sees a roster that  bottomed out in 2024 and there is an expectation of improvement across the roster, which is why we have not seen any moves.

[chpettit19]

So, star production is hard to sustain? The wRC+ for these guys were 155, 142, and 155. yeah, regression is definitely a concern. Especially when you consider Buxton lead them in games played at 102. 

I don't think anyone's expectation should be 150+ games of 150+ wRC+ out of any of these guys. That'd certainly be nice, but it shouldn't be the expectation. Wallner and Correa need to increase their games played (Correa being there to improve the team defense helps as well), Lewis needs to improve his games played and performance, Jeffers and Miranda need to improve their consistency, Larnach needs to repeat his performance, and everybody else needs to step up. 

But putting up the numbers these guys did is really, really hard. Like they'd be top 15 hitters in baseball if they did it over a full season hard. If you're expecting the Twins to have 3 top 15 hitters your expectations are probably too high. As is, they were top 20 hitters amongst players with at least 200 PAs last year. Correa and Wallner tied for 10th and Buxton was 18th. It shouldn't surprise anyone to hear no other team had 3 players in the top 20. The Dodgers (Ohtani and Betts), Yankees (Judge and Soto), Astros (Tucker and Alvarez), and Diamondbacks (Pederson and Marte) had 2 players each in the top 20, but nobody else had 3. These guys put up ridiculous numbers and regression should be expected.

While regression should be expected we should also take time to appreciate how good these guys are. It's been a lot of doom and gloom around here as if this team has no talent. They weren't the White Sox last year. I get that the collapse was absolutely horrendous, but they were one of the best teams in baseball for most of the season. And there is very real talent on this team.

[Blyleven2011]

9 minutes ago, tony&rodney said:

 

I'm guessing that the front office sees a roster that  bottomed out in 2024 and there is an expectation of improvement across the roster, which is why we have not seen any moves.

Front office lives on hope , we've seen how streaky this lineup has been the past few years and nothing seems to ever get tweaked ...

Last year there were prospects that really did not earn their way onto the major league roster  , they were replacements for the injured  ...

In the minor leagues , You work hard absorbing everything to get to the major leagues and you work hard to stay at the level of the major leagues  , it seems our coaching is not up to the task of improving the talent  and taking that talent to another level  , you never stop learning to play the game but we continue to see these prospects regress  ( julien is a good example , his defense and hitting really tanked in 2024 ) ....

 

[Parfigliano]

Vazquez will regress.  Last year was the best you get from him as a Twin.

[Fatbat]

How about some positive regression instead of all this Debbie downerism. 

[mnfireman]

I am more concerned about more of the same from the guy standing in the third base coach's box than I am about a regression from any of these 3.

Maybe one (or more, as is usually the case) of the TD contributors could do an in-depth analysis of the coaching staff and their performance, strength's/weaknesses, potential for improvement, etc...

[bean5302]

I'm not concerned about any of these guys. Buxton will probably play 80 games and that's baked into my expectations of him. Correa and Wallner's actual production would obviously take a hit based on any unexpected injury, but I'd expect 135 G from Correa and 550 PA+ with Wallner at 145 G and 550 PA+ losing a lot of PA due to Baldelli's platoon tendencies.

My expectations for Buxton 2.5-3.0 fWAR.
My expectations for Correa 4.0-5.0 fWAR.
My expectations for Wallner 3.0-4.0 fWAR.

If they fall well short of that, it'll be disappointing, but it's not like I have any of them in MVP candidate-land.

[Doctor Gast]

Last season hitting was plagued by the league getting the book on our "all or nothing" approach, injuries, inexperience & exhaustion. Larnach was 1st on adjusting, then Wallner who can still improve his SOs & Julien has bottomed out & yet to adjust. So I see Larnach the same, Wallner improves & Julien can't get any worse. 

Miranda, Correa & Buxton were injury-related. Miranda, I expect a big comeback at 1B. With a healthier '25 I don't expect large regression from either. Now exhaustion, Lewis, he has stated that he's doing a better conditioning program this offseason. So I expect him  to only get better. Castro was run ragged subbing at premium positions over an extended amount of time. I expect Correa's problem is corrected & Keirsey subbing Buxton will greatly releave this problem. Jeffers, it depends on if he's dialed back a little he'll get better if put in the primary catcher all season he'll crash.

Keirsey was shamefully left off as the Twins' primary CF backup. Keirsey, Martin & Helman, I expect to have better seasons. So I expect a much better offensive season this year over last season. Barring any bonehead moves.

[NYCTK]

2 hours ago, bean5302 said:

I'm not concerned about any of these guys. Buxton will probably play 80 games and that's baked into my expectations of him. Correa and Wallner's actual production would obviously take a hit based on any unexpected injury, but I'd expect 135 G from Correa and 550 PA+ with Wallner at 145 G and 550 PA+ losing a lot of PA due to Baldelli's platoon tendencies.

My expectations for Buxton 2.5-3.0 fWAR.
My expectations for Correa 4.0-5.0 fWAR.
My expectations for Wallner 3.0-4.0 fWAR.

If they fall well short of that, it'll be disappointing, but it's not like I have any of them in MVP candidate-land.

Just want to mention the Steamer projections are:

Buxton - 2.8

Correa - 3.7

Wallner - 2.1

I think your expectations are fair but not likely for all three, as demonstrated by the 2 WAR over the projected.

I think Wallner is that biggest question mark. Fully expecting him to hit 0.230 with bad defense, I can absolutely see him being a player we're all disappointed by at the end of the year. 

[DocBauer]

@chpettit19stole a little bit of my thunder here. Considering just how good all 3 of these guys were in 2024, they absolutely could regression and STILL be very good!

CORREA is a very well conditioned athlete and hard worker. He's put up good to excellent numbers when healthy in his career, including his time with the Twins. And he's only 31yo. Therapy and hard work and new shoes should keep him on the field going forward.

BUXTON is always a heartbeat away from an injury it feels like. But he HAS learned not to sacrifice his body to the same extent he did when younger. And while his bad knee is probably as good as it's going to be now...maybe 80-90%...it held up well last season. My question is whether or not his hip will stop barking at him now with a better knee to play on, and speculation he's worked to strengthen/rehab it. I'll take whatever we can get from Buck, but if the hip is better now and no longer causing compensation problems tied to his knee, might he actually play in more games?

WALLNER'S career is still relatively brief, all things considered. He's probably always going to K around 30%. And I fully appreciate MLB is very different than MILB. But coming up through the system, the one thing he always did was adapt and grow and get better. So far, he's actually improved his AVG/ OB%/ SLG%/ OPS EACH of his 3 ML seasons. I'm not saying he won't regression, and I'm not projecting a bunch of All Star appearances for him, but a .866 OPS is damn good so far. 

Very happy to see Lewis working hard with a trainer he'd worked with previously that helped him feel more flexible. He's strong enough! He just needs to avoid the soft tissue injuries going forward.

Miranda's shoulder seems fine. I'm not aware of him ever having back issues before. We've seen what he can do when healthy.

Larnach has grown and adapted. And he finished 2024 well. If I questioned his ability to drive the ball I'd be worried. If he didn't have a decent eye, I'd be worried. If he was coming off a potentially unsustainable, amazing season of 30HR, I'd be worried. But a guy who's battled injuries, adapted, and started to reach his potential a little later than hoped for, coming off a good season, and a strong finish? I don't know that we've seen the best of him yet.

Jeffers is a bit of a mystery. I just don't understand a guy who has the ability to hit, and have that much power, being so "streaky". Still developing at 27yo and ready to be more consistent? Does he loose rhythm splitting so much time? I'll take his 2023-2024 production all day long. But it feels like he's just primed to find greater consistency one of these days. 

The OP is about 3 players, but these others were mentioned. Therefore, I commented about them as well. Maybe we should throw Castro in here as well? A .750 OPS in 2023 and around that mark in 2024 before his back started hurting. How about a healthy Castro for all of 2025? (They should ABSOLUTELY keep him!)

I understand all the doom and gloom of the collapse last season. I understand questions about depth right now...with hopes for Rodriguez and Keaschall sometime in 2025, maybe an Eeles surprise...and frustrations about the FO being almost paralyzed from making depth acquisitions. But this is NOT a team without real talent on board already.

Regression from the proposed top 3 is no death sentence, just a realistic possibility from how good they were in 2024 when on the field. And they aren't the only talented ballplayers available. I think we need to remember that.

Spring training can't get here soon enough for me. I'm NOT satisfied with ownership or the handcuffs placed on the FO to add! But I still like what's on hand for the Twins. And I still like the potential of this team with a little better health...and they're due...and even a little more consistency out of the lineup day to day.

[terrydactyls]

My New Year's resolution is that the Twins sell the team quickly and the new owners are looking to win championships.  (I know that isn't really a "resolution" but it's close enough.)

[ashbury]

Here's an idea for an article:

1. sort the Twins' 2024 season by Batting Average on Balls In Play,
2. choose the 3 with at least 200 PA at the top of the list,
3. write it up without ever actually mentioning BABIP.
4. ??????
5. PROFIT !

[dxpavelka]

Castro

[Doctor Wu]

6 hours ago, dxpavelka said:

Castro

That would have been my pick too. 

[Linus]

6 hours ago, ashbury said:

Here's an idea for an article:

1. sort the Twins' 2024 season by Batting Average on Balls In Play,
2. choose the 3 with at least 200 PA at the top of the list,
3. write it up without ever actually mentioning BABIP.
4. ??????
5. PROFIT !

If this had been written after the 23 season people’s expectations for Julien would have been more realistic (373 babip). 

[Doctor Wu]

No pitchers listed at all? Seems like a few of those guys that had good years may not be as effective next season. Obviously I hope that nobody regresses, but it's bound to happen to some of them. 

[JD-TWINS]

21 hours ago, tony&rodney said:

Yes, this reads like a preview of the White Sox precipitous fall. Carlos Correa and Byron Buxton are here to stay a few more years due to the no trade clause.

If the Twins brain trust have any fears whatsoever about Matt Wallner, there are several teams looking for a right fielder. Pittsburgh would probably send over Jared Jones. Somebody in the organization should have a handle on evaluating the talent and from there the team stands pat or makes some deals.

The other side of this equation suggests that other teams see little to no value in discussing transactions with Minnesota due to the paucity of talent on their roster. That doesn't seem realistic. 

I'm guessing that the front office sees a roster that  bottomed out in 2024 and there is an expectation of improvement across the roster, which is why we have not seen any moves.

Decent pitching with well below offense was much of the last 6 weeks in 2024. Even with his ups & downs, can’t afford to move Wallner for more pitching. Can add a guy or two via trade or modest FA signing but can’t trade away any of the Top 6 hitters.

[JD-TWINS]

8 hours ago, dxpavelka said:

Castro

Not sure I understand this? Castro should have been mentioned on the list of potential guys to regress, that’s my assumption. 

He played in too many games (158) in 2024 and that wore on his sharpness at the plate and it chipped away at his health. I’d like to see him get another dozen or more days off for a total of maybe 140-145 games.

In my opinion, that nobody will probably share, is that he regressed in 2024. He played 124 games in ‘23 with a WAR of 2.7……he played 158 games in ‘24 with a WAR of 1.6. He hit .247 in ‘24 & his career average is .248. His OPS was 33 points less in ‘24 than the previous year.

Obviously nobody has a crystal ball, but I think Castro will have every bit as good a year in ‘25 with a probable uptick……….. needs a little more rest sprinkled in through the season.

[JD-TWINS]

.274 - .258 - .283 - .276 ……..Christian Vazquez BA’s from ‘22 back to ‘19. He’s done it before. Can he regress back toward his mean performance at the plate? If he hits .240 plus it would be a nice improvement over his past 2 seasons………..I get the skepticism! Is it crazy for the FO to just swallow that $14.7M for the two Catchers is an acceptable number? Camargo certainly isn’t a performance upgrade. Is this thinking on Vazquez crazy?

Most here assume that a Vazquez trade will only really net a $6M savings due to the need to cover a portion of his salary if moved. After they sign his replacement - what’s the net gain for payroll flexibility? Seems pretty minimal.

Weigh the $ savings v. continuity in Clubhouse and familiarity with the Staff. If they can trade for a young Catcher and/or move Vazquez with a pitcher or some prospect to avoid spending anything against his salary, great. Just saying that his pluses along with his potential probability to “regress positively” may make him worthwhile to hang on to.

[TopGunn#22]

The 3 guys highlighted are spot on, and I would have added Lewis.  Correa is just a good baseball player.  He will perform at a high level if healthy.  Have to hope that new orthotic shoes does the trick for him.  And you can't understate his defense.

Health is also the #1 concern for Buxton and whenever Byron has been healthy and played half the season, he hasn't disappointed.  Would Buxton ever be able to approach 130-140 games played?  Probably not, but maybe he's got just ONE of those 130-140 game seasons in his career somewhere.  It IS nice to know he's having a "normal" off season.  Buxton's defense cannot be overlooked as well.

So with Correa and Buxton, the more they play, the better their WAR will be.  But this is one of the issues with having your two best position players a 50/50 roll of the dice if they will even be in the lineup.  When you just stop to consider how we've been conditioned to accept 80 games from Buxton as a reason to break out with the "Hallelujah Chorus" it just shows how low the bar has been set for Buxton.

Wallner is a very interesting player.  On the minus side, he strikes out way too much.  On the plus side, he's shown improvement every year he's been up with the Twins.  Will he ever be able to just be average against LHP??  Rocco has kept Wallner on a short leash every season.  But with no Kepler or     Margo-esque player to siphon at bats away from him, is this the first season Wallner could see 500 AB's at the MLB level?  He had an .859 OPS in about half a season last year.  If he "regressed" to an .800 OPS and hit 30 HR & 30 2B's I would be very happy with that type of "regression."  Even with the strikeouts.

But to me, the real key for 2025 is Royce Lewis.  At the top of the wish list is HEALTH.  Lewis, if healthy, will produce and in a big way.  Depending on who leads off, you could see Lewis hitting 2nd, Buxton 3rd, Correa cleanup and Wallner 5th.  That has the potential to be a very productive heart of the lineup.  Yes, the Twins need Jeffers to be more consistent and Larnach to continue to improve.  Lee and Miranda are players with offensive potential, but they don't come close to what their fellow younger teammates Lewis and Wallner's ceiling could be.   

Lewis has looked at times, like a Superstar in the making.  A clutch hitter that comes up BIG in the big moments.  Whether Lewis is at 2B or 1B or somehow finds himself back at 3B, his bat is crucial to success in 2025 and beyond. 

Once E-Rod makes his appearance, maybe by the All Star game, and if he doesn't disappoint, the Twins must determine between Wallner and Larnach, who they should keep and who would be traded at the deadline.  With E-Rod expected to join the Twins THIS year and Walker Jenkins not too far behind, one of Wallner or Larnach should really be traded.   

This year will be crucial to determine the Wallner/Larnach question.  It will be crucial to get Lewis back on track.  It will be crucial to see HEALHTY seasons from Correa and Buxton.  And it will be crucial to see continued improvement from all sorts of guys like Lee, Miranda, Jeffers, Julien, Pablo Lopez, Joe Ryan, Bailey Ober, the other young SP's and Jhoan Duran.  Some will succeed.  Some will disappoint.

The Twins will not have complete answers on all these players at the end of the 2025 season, but they will have a lot more information.  The roster in 2026 will not be the same as what breaks camp in 2025.  In fact, it could be radically different.  New ownership will certainly come to pass sometime in 2025.  With an ownership that wants to compete, how will a willingness to spend above $130 million affect the moves the Twins could make?  

 

[Rod Carews Birthday]

20 minutes ago, JD-TWINS said:

.274 - .258 - .283 - .276 ……..Christian Vazquez BA’s from ‘22 back to ‘19. He’s done it before. Can he regress back toward his mean performance at the plate? If he hits .240 plus it would be a nice improvement over his past 2 seasons………..I get the skepticism! Is it crazy for the FO to just swallow that $14.7M for the two Catchers is an acceptable number? Camargo certainly isn’t a performance upgrade. Is this thinking on Vazquez crazy?

Most here assume that a Vazquez trade will only really net a $6M savings due to the need to cover a portion of his salary if moved. After they sign his replacement - what’s the net gain for payroll flexibility? Seems pretty minimal.

Weigh the $ savings v. continuity in Clubhouse and familiarity with the Staff. If they can trade for a young Catcher and/or move Vazquez with a pitcher or some prospect to avoid spending anything against his salary, great. Just saying that his pluses along with his potential probability to “regress positively” may make him worthwhile to hang on to.

I do think that this is possible, but I think that the common opinion on TD is that his bat is cooked and that he will never regress back to what he was from 2019-2022.  What I don't think will happen is that he will be worse in 25 than he was in 24.  He kind of is what he is, which considering his defense, isn't nothing.  The big question is whether the Twins will step up the payroll slightly to keep everyone on board. 

 

[Mark G]

2 hours ago, Doctor Wu said:

No pitchers listed at all? Seems like a few of those guys that had good years may not be as effective next season. Obviously I hope that nobody regresses, but it's bound to happen to some of them. 

That was my first reaction as well.  Will Ryan come back from injury the same pitcher he was (or better)?Will Lopez continue injury free year in and year out?  And what happens if he goes down for any length of time?  What if Duran's drop in zip is a warning of things to come?  Will SWR live up to his full potential, or does the league have him figured out?  

I worry about those 4 (and maybe a couple of more) a tad bit more than I worry about CC, Buck, and MW.  And I do agree with those who say Castro may be a possible candidate for a slight regression.  But I look on the mound before I look in the batting box when I worry about regression.  If a position player or two gets hurt or slumps there are others who can pick them up.  I guess I just don't see that as likely on the pitching side if one or more gets hurt or simply has a terrible year.  

[tony&rodney]

1 hour ago, JD-TWINS said:

Decent pitching with well below offense was much of the last 6 weeks in 2024. Even with his ups & downs, can’t afford to move Wallner for more pitching. Can add a guy or two via trade or modest FA signing but can’t trade away any of the Top 6 hitters.

I'm not calling for specific trades. My point is that there needs to be talent evaluation to determine the manner in which to best improve the team. This seems like it is part of the job of a front office. 

My frustration last offseason was that the Twins had some players who held value to other teams and there seemed like opportunities to acquire needs to improve the roster. Holding all of the players because you believe they will all contribute might work but then again it might not. Last season Julien and Kirilloff were among the players who didn't work out. Nobody is counting on Julien right now. Will there be someone we believe should be a regular falter this year due to holes in their game? I guess I see the Twins as more reactive than proactive and it seems like there are opportunities out there. 

[saviking]

On 12/30/2024 at 9:24 AM, Fire Dan Gladden said:

You listed the top three OPS+ position players still on the roster.  Add Miranda and Larnach to your list and no one else was over 110.  If those three drop, then an already negative outlook for 2025 looks devastatingly bad.

It's not a problem, as Correa and Buxton will probably be on the shelf half the season.

[Rod Carews Birthday]

Among position players, I worry most about Wallner.  His strikeout rate with a limited track record means that he will always be living on the edge and could fall apart.  On the other hand, there are plenty of hitters who have not only lived, but thrived on that edge -- even a few HOFers. 

Among pitchers, Duran scares me.  In 2023, he was ridiculous.  Nobody could touch him.  In 2024, with just a little velocity lost, he was just "good".  Lose another tick and he could be in real trouble.  Personally, I would trade him.  Now is the time.  You have Jax as the closer and a lot of solid bullpen arms.  He could correct himself and be back to his unhittable ways, but I would rather let someone else worry about that. 

On the starting staff, outside of the injury threat which is always present, Lopez and Ryan don't scare me at all.  Neither of them seems to need to bring their best stuff to every game while still being effective.  For me, they are ceasing to be "young pitchers" and are morphing into "dependable veteran pitchers".  If either of them had the dream season where everything goes right and they always have their best stuff, they would positively be amazing.  Ober is close, but I feel like he still needs a little bit of seasoning to get there.  Could one of them regress?  Sure, but I think they are pretty dependable at this point.  Now SWR on the other hand. . .  hmmmm.  Expecting him to repeat his 2024 performance might be a stretch. 

[JD-TWINS]

30 minutes ago, tony&rodney said:

I'm not calling for specific trades. My point is that there needs to be talent evaluation to determine the manner in which to best improve the team. This seems like it is part of the job of a front office. 

My frustration last offseason was that the Twins had some players who held value to other teams and there seemed like opportunities to acquire needs to improve the roster. Holding all of the players because you believe they will all contribute might work but then again it might not. Last season Julien and Kirilloff were among the players who didn't work out. Nobody is counting on Julien right now. Will there be someone we believe should be a regular falter this year due to holes in their game? I guess I see the Twins as more reactive than proactive and it seems like there are opportunities out there. 

It’s baseball. There’s no crystal ball for FO personnel nor TD contributors. Pretty sure, and I think you are as well, that the FO evaluates talent, position depth, upside, & floor for each player. There’s always “opportunities” but will they pan out? We suggest things - personal thoughts……..FO gets hired & fired based on their abilities over a large sample to perform like a crystal ball.

I understand you’d like action v. no action. Not sure who the players that held value last year that were not moved (Kirilloff/Julien?)? To me, Julien was a really nice find after ‘23 & fully expected .250 BA - .350 OBP - 20 HR in ‘24………he was pathetic after April 27. Not sure how any talent evaluator can see that type of thing coming with no change in the player’s health?

Anyway, I too hope we pull off a nice trade or two!

[Craig Arko]

Statistical regression (to the mean) works both ways. I’d put Lewis, Julien, and Lee on the list as well, To improve.