These Nine Twins Were the Most Overachieving and Underachieving Hitters in 2024

Despite the team’s collapse, the Twins had offensive performances that stood out. Some of these performances might be tied to the overachieving hitters. On the other hand, some hitters may have suffered underperformance based on bad luck. 

Below you will see data from Baseball Savant that compares players' slugging percentage with their expected slugging percentage. According to their website, “Expected Outcome stats help to remove defense and ballpark from the equation to express the skill shown at the moment of batted ball contact. By looking at the exit velocity and launch angle of each batted ball, a Hit Probability is assigned based on the outcomes of comparable historic balls in play. By accumulating the expected outcomes of each batted ball with actual strikeouts, walks and hit-bypitches, Expected Batting Average (xBA), Expected Slugging (xSLG), and (most importantly) Expected Weighted On-Base Average (xwOBA) tell the story of a player's season based on quality of and amount of contact, not outcomes.”

Let’s dive into the leaderboard to see which hitters overachieved or underachieved. 

Overachieving Minnesota Twins Hitters Leaderboard (SLG-xSLG)

1. Carlos Correa: +.062
2. Matt Wallner: +.055
3. Ryan Jeffers: +.046
4. José Miranda: +.042

Carlos Correa and Matt Wallner were two of the most critical hitters for the Twins lineup last season. Correa slashed an impressive .308/.377/.520 (.897) with 16 doubles, three triples, and 13 home runs through the first 75 games of the season. He had some lucky hits, including this chopper and a variety of infield hits like this one. Teams shift on Wallner because of his power potential from the left side, which can lead to hits like this, or defenders can get a bad break on the ball. The Twins hope both players can build off their offensive performances last season, but luck might have helped their overall performance. 

Ryan Jeffers and Jose Miranda were two of the team’s streakiest hitters in 2024 and some of that streakiness might point to why they are overachieving. Jeffers posted a .791 OPS in the season’s first half before struggling with a .630 OPS after the All-Star break. He had three months with an OPS of .830 or higher and two months with an OPS of .470 or lower. Like Jeffers, Miranda struggled in the season’s second half, dropping his OPS from .888 to .543. His first half included a record-tying 12 consecutive at-bats with a hit, but he dealt with a back injury at the end of the year. 

Underachieving Minnesota Twins Hitters Leaderboard (SLG-xSLG)

1. Manuel Margot: -.042
2. Edouard Julien: -.028
3. Trevor Larnach: -.024
4. Christian Vázquez: -.024
5. Brooks Lee: -.020

Manuel Margot , a right-handed hitter, did most of his damage against lefties with an OPS that was 173 points higher. He broke the MLB record for futility as a pinch hitter, going 0-for-30 in 35 plate appearances. For the Twins, there was hope that Margot could fill the role occupied by Michael A. Taylor the previous season. However, he quickly proved that he wasn’t able to handle center field, and his offensive numbers tanked. He won’t be back with the Twins. 

Edouard Julien and Trevor Larnach are two interesting names to consider on this leaderboard because of how their seasons played out differently. Julien was expected to take the next step and build off a tremendous rookie season where he posted a 130 OPS+. Instead, he struggled mightily (74 OPS+) and spent part of the season at Triple-A. During his big-league time, there were some plays where defenders recorded outs despite hard-hit contact or just missed the ball. 

Larnach was one of the team’s best offensive players, finishing with a 116 OPS+ despite a leg injury limiting him to DH duties. He had hard contact that was somewhat unlucky, and there are also areas in Target Field’s power alleys where it is tough for balls to find the grass. Both players can point to their expected totals and hope for better luck next year.

Christian Vázquez played well in July and August with a .844 OPS, but his offense was significantly below average in the season’s other months. He might have been slightly unlucky, but his offensive performance has significantly declined over the last two seasons (62 OPS+). Brooks Lee debuted with high expectations as one of the team’s best prospects. He struggled during his rookie campaign by hitting .221/.265/.320 (.585) with ten extra-base hits in 50 games. The difference in his SLG and xSLG points to a potential offensive improvement next season. 

Every year, there will be hitters who are lucky or unlucky when putting the ball in play. Correa and Wallner were some of the team’s most overachieving hitters, while players like Julien, Larnach, and Vázquez might see a bump in their offensive numbers with better luck in 2025.  

What stands out about the leaderboards listed above? Which player is most surprising? Leave a COMMENT and start the discussion.