These Nine Twins Were the Most Overachieving and Underachieving Hitters in 2024

[Cody Christie]

After the Twins' second-half collapse, many fans might believe that the entire hitting core underachieved in the second half. Here’s a look at the hitters who most overachieved and underachieved.

Image courtesy of © Brian Bradshaw Sevald-USA TODAY Sports

Despite the team’s collapse, the Twins had offensive performances that stood out. Some of these performances might be tied to the overachieving hitters. On the other hand, some hitters may have suffered underperformance based on bad luck. 

Below you will see data from Baseball Savant that compares players' slugging percentage with their expected slugging percentage. According to their website, “Expected Outcome stats help to remove defense and ballpark from the equation to express the skill shown at the moment of batted ball contact. By looking at the exit velocity and launch angle of each batted ball, a Hit Probability is assigned based on the outcomes of comparable historic balls in play. By accumulating the expected outcomes of each batted ball with actual strikeouts, walks and hit-bypitches, Expected Batting Average (xBA), Expected Slugging (xSLG), and (most importantly) Expected Weighted On-Base Average (xwOBA) tell the story of a player's season based on quality of and amount of contact, not outcomes.”

Let’s dive into the leaderboard to see which hitters overachieved or underachieved. 

Overachieving Minnesota Twins Hitters Leaderboard (SLG-xSLG)

1. Carlos Correa: +.062
2. Matt Wallner: +.055
3. Ryan Jeffers: +.046
4. José Miranda: +.042

Carlos Correa and Matt Wallner were two of the most critical hitters for the Twins lineup last season. Correa slashed an impressive .308/.377/.520 (.897) with 16 doubles, three triples, and 13 home runs through the first 75 games of the season. He had some lucky hits, including this chopper and a variety of infield hits like this one. Teams shift on Wallner because of his power potential from the left side, which can lead to hits like this, or defenders can get a bad break on the ball. The Twins hope both players can build off their offensive performances last season, but luck might have helped their overall performance. 

Ryan Jeffers and Jose Miranda were two of the team’s streakiest hitters in 2024 and some of that streakiness might point to why they are overachieving. Jeffers posted a .791 OPS in the season’s first half before struggling with a .630 OPS after the All-Star break. He had three months with an OPS of .830 or higher and two months with an OPS of .470 or lower. Like Jeffers, Miranda struggled in the season’s second half, dropping his OPS from .888 to .543. His first half included a record-tying 12 consecutive at-bats with a hit, but he dealt with a back injury at the end of the year. 

Underachieving Minnesota Twins Hitters Leaderboard (SLG-xSLG)

1. Manuel Margot: -.042
2. Edouard Julien: -.028
3. Trevor Larnach: -.024
4. Christian Vázquez: -.024
5. Brooks Lee: -.020

Manuel Margot , a right-handed hitter, did most of his damage against lefties with an OPS that was 173 points higher. He broke the MLB record for futility as a pinch hitter, going 0-for-30 in 35 plate appearances. For the Twins, there was hope that Margot could fill the role occupied by Michael A. Taylor the previous season. However, he quickly proved that he wasn’t able to handle center field, and his offensive numbers tanked. He won’t be back with the Twins. 

Edouard Julien and Trevor Larnach are two interesting names to consider on this leaderboard because of how their seasons played out differently. Julien was expected to take the next step and build off a tremendous rookie season where he posted a 130 OPS+. Instead, he struggled mightily (74 OPS+) and spent part of the season at Triple-A. During his big-league time, there were some plays where defenders recorded outs despite hard-hit contact or just missed the ball. 

Larnach was one of the team’s best offensive players, finishing with a 116 OPS+ despite a leg injury limiting him to DH duties. He had hard contact that was somewhat unlucky, and there are also areas in Target Field’s power alleys where it is tough for balls to find the grass. Both players can point to their expected totals and hope for better luck next year.

Christian Vázquez played well in July and August with a .844 OPS, but his offense was significantly below average in the season’s other months. He might have been slightly unlucky, but his offensive performance has significantly declined over the last two seasons (62 OPS+). Brooks Lee debuted with high expectations as one of the team’s best prospects. He struggled during his rookie campaign by hitting .221/.265/.320 (.585) with ten extra-base hits in 50 games. The difference in his SLG and xSLG points to a potential offensive improvement next season. 

Every year, there will be hitters who are lucky or unlucky when putting the ball in play. Correa and Wallner were some of the team’s most overachieving hitters, while players like Julien, Larnach, and Vázquez might see a bump in their offensive numbers with better luck in 2025.  

---

What stands out about the leaderboards listed above? Which player is most surprising? Leave a COMMENT and start the discussion.

View full article

[LeatherAntenna]

I thought Royce Lewis played for the Twins?

[JD-TWINS]

Hitting a bunch of really hard hit balls into the gaps are signs of a good hitter - an obvious comment. Correa - Wallner & even Miranda, prior to his annual physical injury, showed this capability often. Vazquez did for 6-9 week stretch……didn’t see it from either second basemen!!

Lee & Vazquez hitting routine ground balls to the pull side show signs of guys that aren’t confident or aren’t mentally capable/in tune …….they both have shown previously or during ‘24 that they have the physical tools. Hoping a BUNCH of reps in off-season and in the Spring, along with some new coaching angles, get these two somewhere near their potential. Vazquez is near 35 so I’m not nearly concerned as much with his improvement as I am with Lee. .265 OBP is brutal - rookie or not, being 50 points under League average is pretty bad!

[Blyleven2011]

Boy are we in trouble once again ...

Streaky offense at best , hope we hired some hitting coaches that can perform magic .. 

[JD-TWINS]

Off the topic a bit…… on a MLB post today and parallel to other posts here routinely:

”Twins need right handed bats (per MLB post - “anywhere”) - I don’t agree or understand!

As things currently stand……

2 RH hitting Catchers

3B - SS - 1B all RH hitters

CF  - RH hitter

Probable 2B (Lee or Castro) switch hitter

Corner OF spots are LH & that’s it - Martin is nearly a certain 4th OF and hits RH.

How important is adding a RH bat??? Team needs a good HITTER at Catcher or 1B or (maybe lastly) at Corner OF. Desperate for a RH hitter - don’t think so.

 

[Parfigliano]

Margot didn't underachieve.  On both sides of the ball he was washed coming into the year.  He played exactly that way so he achieved.  He's a veteran and was present so he achieved veteran presence too.

The people who thought he was going to be anything more then what he provided underachieved.

[old nurse]

When Margot joined the team he was about a career .200 as a pinch hitter. His hitting other than the pinch hit attempts was at about career average. The Twins asked him to do what he does not do well. When they traded for him they should have known it would be a failure. Doncon had better pan out. 

[AKTwinsFan]

It's mostly the "all or nothing" approach at the plate that hurt the team. Instead of having a 2 strike approach, many just kept swinging for the fences. I like what the Mariners did with their offense once hiring a different hitting coach, a lot of contact baseball. Shortened swings and hitting up the middle of the field. 

[David Maro]

If the new coaches teach homerun like the last staff look for another long year. The few games that they played baseball they looked good,but when they swung for the fences not so much.

[Doctor Gast]

Vazquez's main focus when he 1st arrived was learning the pitchers & getting used to a new team. In '24 he started to focus on his hitting. Although he's not great he's trending the right way. My main concern for my catcher is his defense, handling the pitching staff, having a feel for the game & commanding the field. Any hitting is a plus. At the same time I want production from my DH, 1Bman & cOFers.

[Doctor Gast]

In '23 the "all or nothing" Twins led the AL in HRs (233) & led the league in SO (1654) followed by SEA (1603) with 210 HRs. MLB total HRs was. "24 Twins were dead set on the "all or nothing" approach. The league adjusted to the "all or nothing" approach all the way down to the MiLB, HRs for these teams plummeted & SO increased. MN adjusted promptly, but SEA did not. In '24, SEA's HRs dropped to (185) while SOs rose to 1st (1625). MN's dropped from 1st in SOs to 22nd (1306). 

Although our focus should be production at DH, 1B, cOF, we should steer clear of these "all or nothing" sluggers. The Twins were drooling over Rhys Hoskins but because of budget restraints, we dodged a bullet. This league adjustment won't be easy to readjust to, so we'll finally have to readjust our drafting & development practices.

Correa isn't an "all or nothing" hitter, Jeffers adjusted in '23, Larnach adjusted but isn't the same hitter. Wallner has kind of adjusted but still has a lot of SOs, Julien hasn't adjusted. he has to adjust & IF he adjusts he'll be a very different hitter. Julien can't play 2B & IF he adjusts he'll no longer profiles as a 1B man. We can still get something good from him in trade. I wanted to trade him last season but we have to this season (but Julien is one of Falvey's guys) so it might not matter how bad he is or how much he'll hold back the team.

[IndianaTwin]

Curious what the team total is. The four positive values far exceed the five negative values. Also, only Larnach among the underachievers is above 350 in plate appearances, whereas Jeffers, Correa and Miranda are above 350, so if I'd weighted that calculation it would be more extreme. 

With the rest of the plate appearances going to guys very close to the mean, if this stat means anything, it would seem that the team likely overachieved a bit. 

 

EDIT to add: Castro and Santana, the leaders in PAs, were slight positives. Buxton and Lewis would have been the next guys listed on the positive list and Kepler was virtually even. Pretty sure a weighted average would have the team as a net "overachiever."

 

(I'm just the messenger, folks.)