3 Twins to Watch for Potential Regression in 2025

I'd add Royce Lewis to this list as well. If he continues to slump like he did in the second half last year, or if he's on and off the IL all year then we'll be in trouble. If he can hit like he did in short periods in 23 and 24, and stay healthy, it could be a career years for him. I could see a .280 AVG and 30 HR being possible. Overall we need improvement and health from just about everybody. We cannot rely on just one or two guys to carry our lineup. Same with our rotation and bullpen. I do like our core, I just worry about depth and injury replacement. I think we still really need a first baseman, a RH hitting OF who can cover CF and a lefty reliever like Coloumbe. We can't add anything until we move Vasquez and or Paddack so they really need to step up efforts to do just that.

You listed the top three OPS+ position players still on the roster.  Add Miranda and Larnach to your list and no one else was over 110.  If those three drop, then an already negative outlook for 2025 looks devastatingly bad.

22 minutes ago, Fire Dan Gladden said:

You listed the top three OPS+ position players still on the roster.  Add Miranda and Larnach to your list and no one else was over 110.  If those three drop, then an already negative outlook for 2025 looks devastatingly bad.

Yes, this reads like a preview of the White Sox precipitous fall. Carlos Correa and Byron Buxton are here to stay a few more years due to the no trade clause.

If the Twins brain trust have any fears whatsoever about Matt Wallner, there are several teams looking for a right fielder. Pittsburgh would probably send over Jared Jones. Somebody in the organization should have a handle on evaluating the talent and from there the team stands pat or makes some deals.

The other side of this equation suggests that other teams see little to no value in discussing transactions with Minnesota due to the paucity of talent on their roster. That doesn't seem realistic. 

I'm guessing that the front office sees a roster that  bottomed out in 2024 and there is an expectation of improvement across the roster, which is why we have not seen any moves.

9 minutes ago, tony&rodney said:

 

I'm guessing that the front office sees a roster that  bottomed out in 2024 and there is an expectation of improvement across the roster, which is why we have not seen any moves.

Front office lives on hope , we've seen how streaky this lineup has been the past few years and nothing seems to ever get tweaked ...

Last year there were prospects that really did not earn their way onto the major league roster  , they were replacements for the injured  ...

In the minor leagues , You work hard absorbing everything to get to the major leagues and you work hard to stay at the level of the major leagues  , it seems our coaching is not up to the task of improving the talent  and taking that talent to another level  , you never stop learning to play the game but we continue to see these prospects regress  ( julien is a good example , his defense and hitting really tanked in 2024 ) ....

How about some positive regression instead of all this Debbie downerism. 

I am more concerned about more of the same from the guy standing in the third base coach's box than I am about a regression from any of these 3.

Maybe one (or more, as is usually the case) of the TD contributors could do an in-depth analysis of the coaching staff and their performance, strength's/weaknesses, potential for improvement, etc...

Last season hitting was plagued by the league getting the book on our "all or nothing" approach, injuries, inexperience & exhaustion. Larnach was 1st on adjusting, then Wallner who can still improve his SOs & Julien has bottomed out & yet to adjust. So I see Larnach the same, Wallner improves & Julien can't get any worse. 

Miranda, Correa & Buxton were injury-related. Miranda, I expect a big comeback at 1B. With a healthier '25 I don't expect large regression from either. Now exhaustion, Lewis, he has stated that he's doing a better conditioning program this offseason. So I expect him  to only get better. Castro was run ragged subbing at premium positions over an extended amount of time. I expect Correa's problem is corrected & Keirsey subbing Buxton will greatly releave this problem. Jeffers, it depends on if he's dialed back a little he'll get better if put in the primary catcher all season he'll crash.

Keirsey was shamefully left off as the Twins' primary CF backup. Keirsey, Martin & Helman, I expect to have better seasons. So I expect a much better offensive season this year over last season. Barring any bonehead moves.

2 hours ago, bean5302 said:

I'm not concerned about any of these guys. Buxton will probably play 80 games and that's baked into my expectations of him. Correa and Wallner's actual production would obviously take a hit based on any unexpected injury, but I'd expect 135 G from Correa and 550 PA+ with Wallner at 145 G and 550 PA+ losing a lot of PA due to Baldelli's platoon tendencies.

My expectations for Buxton 2.5-3.0 fWAR.
My expectations for Correa 4.0-5.0 fWAR.
My expectations for Wallner 3.0-4.0 fWAR.

If they fall well short of that, it'll be disappointing, but it's not like I have any of them in MVP candidate-land.

Just want to mention the Steamer projections are:

Buxton - 2.8

Correa - 3.7

Wallner - 2.1

I think your expectations are fair but not likely for all three, as demonstrated by the 2 WAR over the projected.

I think Wallner is that biggest question mark. Fully expecting him to hit 0.230 with bad defense, I can absolutely see him being a player we're all disappointed by at the end of the year. 

Castro

6 hours ago, dxpavelka said:

Castro

That would have been my pick too. 

6 hours ago, ashbury said:

Here's an idea for an article:

1. sort the Twins' 2024 season by Batting Average on Balls In Play,
2. choose the 3 with at least 200 PA at the top of the list,
3. write it up without ever actually mentioning BABIP.
4. ??????
5. PROFIT !

If this had been written after the 23 season people’s expectations for Julien would have been more realistic (373 babip). 

No pitchers listed at all? Seems like a few of those guys that had good years may not be as effective next season. Obviously I hope that nobody regresses, but it's bound to happen to some of them. 

The 3 guys highlighted are spot on, and I would have added Lewis.  Correa is just a good baseball player.  He will perform at a high level if healthy.  Have to hope that new orthotic shoes does the trick for him.  And you can't understate his defense.

Health is also the #1 concern for Buxton and whenever Byron has been healthy and played half the season, he hasn't disappointed.  Would Buxton ever be able to approach 130-140 games played?  Probably not, but maybe he's got just ONE of those 130-140 game seasons in his career somewhere.  It IS nice to know he's having a "normal" off season.  Buxton's defense cannot be overlooked as well.

So with Correa and Buxton, the more they play, the better their WAR will be.  But this is one of the issues with having your two best position players a 50/50 roll of the dice if they will even be in the lineup.  When you just stop to consider how we've been conditioned to accept 80 games from Buxton as a reason to break out with the "Hallelujah Chorus" it just shows how low the bar has been set for Buxton.

Wallner is a very interesting player.  On the minus side, he strikes out way too much.  On the plus side, he's shown improvement every year he's been up with the Twins.  Will he ever be able to just be average against LHP??  Rocco has kept Wallner on a short leash every season.  But with no Kepler or     Margo-esque player to siphon at bats away from him, is this the first season Wallner could see 500 AB's at the MLB level?  He had an .859 OPS in about half a season last year.  If he "regressed" to an .800 OPS and hit 30 HR & 30 2B's I would be very happy with that type of "regression."  Even with the strikeouts.

But to me, the real key for 2025 is Royce Lewis.  At the top of the wish list is HEALTH.  Lewis, if healthy, will produce and in a big way.  Depending on who leads off, you could see Lewis hitting 2nd, Buxton 3rd, Correa cleanup and Wallner 5th.  That has the potential to be a very productive heart of the lineup.  Yes, the Twins need Jeffers to be more consistent and Larnach to continue to improve.  Lee and Miranda are players with offensive potential, but they don't come close to what their fellow younger teammates Lewis and Wallner's ceiling could be.   

Lewis has looked at times, like a Superstar in the making.  A clutch hitter that comes up BIG in the big moments.  Whether Lewis is at 2B or 1B or somehow finds himself back at 3B, his bat is crucial to success in 2025 and beyond. 

Once E-Rod makes his appearance, maybe by the All Star game, and if he doesn't disappoint, the Twins must determine between Wallner and Larnach, who they should keep and who would be traded at the deadline.  With E-Rod expected to join the Twins THIS year and Walker Jenkins not too far behind, one of Wallner or Larnach should really be traded.   

This year will be crucial to determine the Wallner/Larnach question.  It will be crucial to get Lewis back on track.  It will be crucial to see HEALHTY seasons from Correa and Buxton.  And it will be crucial to see continued improvement from all sorts of guys like Lee, Miranda, Jeffers, Julien, Pablo Lopez, Joe Ryan, Bailey Ober, the other young SP's and Jhoan Duran.  Some will succeed.  Some will disappoint.

The Twins will not have complete answers on all these players at the end of the 2025 season, but they will have a lot more information.  The roster in 2026 will not be the same as what breaks camp in 2025.  In fact, it could be radically different.  New ownership will certainly come to pass sometime in 2025.  With an ownership that wants to compete, how will a willingness to spend above $130 million affect the moves the Twins could make?  

2 hours ago, Doctor Wu said:

No pitchers listed at all? Seems like a few of those guys that had good years may not be as effective next season. Obviously I hope that nobody regresses, but it's bound to happen to some of them. 

That was my first reaction as well.  Will Ryan come back from injury the same pitcher he was (or better)?Will Lopez continue injury free year in and year out?  And what happens if he goes down for any length of time?  What if Duran's drop in zip is a warning of things to come?  Will SWR live up to his full potential, or does the league have him figured out?  

I worry about those 4 (and maybe a couple of more) a tad bit more than I worry about CC, Buck, and MW.  And I do agree with those who say Castro may be a possible candidate for a slight regression.  But I look on the mound before I look in the batting box when I worry about regression.  If a position player or two gets hurt or slumps there are others who can pick them up.  I guess I just don't see that as likely on the pitching side if one or more gets hurt or simply has a terrible year.  

1 hour ago, JD-TWINS said:

Decent pitching with well below offense was much of the last 6 weeks in 2024. Even with his ups & downs, can’t afford to move Wallner for more pitching. Can add a guy or two via trade or modest FA signing but can’t trade away any of the Top 6 hitters.

I'm not calling for specific trades. My point is that there needs to be talent evaluation to determine the manner in which to best improve the team. This seems like it is part of the job of a front office. 

My frustration last offseason was that the Twins had some players who held value to other teams and there seemed like opportunities to acquire needs to improve the roster. Holding all of the players because you believe they will all contribute might work but then again it might not. Last season Julien and Kirilloff were among the players who didn't work out. Nobody is counting on Julien right now. Will there be someone we believe should be a regular falter this year due to holes in their game? I guess I see the Twins as more reactive than proactive and it seems like there are opportunities out there. 

On 12/30/2024 at 11:37 AM, Fatbat said:

How about some positive regression instead of all this Debbie downerism. 

Other than choosing the top players, I don't see the reasoning for regression.  I'm not saying it won't happen, but it just seems to be based on old fashioned Minnesota pessimism.