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Posted

Tuesday marks the deadline for MLB teams to add prospects to their 40-man roster in order to protect those players from being poached in the Rule 5 Draft. The Twins have a few interesting decisions in front of them.

Image courtesy of Ed Bailey, Wichita Wind Surge (photo of Marco Raya)

By 5:00 PM CT on Tuesday, November 19th, MLB teams must file their "reserve lists," which is to say they must add eligible minor-league players to their 40-man rosters lest those players be exposed to the Rule 5 Draft when it takes place on December 11th.

For front offices, this is always a balancing act. Certainly you want to avoid the risk of losing talented and promising players from the organization for nothing, but you also must be mindful of preserving 40-man flexibility in order to add impact talent. (For the Twins, that might be less of a concern this offseason.)

Before we get started, it's worth pointing out that Minnesota's front office has a fair amount of roster space to play around with. Below you can find a current snapshot of their 40-man layout, which includes five open spaces plus a few others occupied by arbitration-eligible players who could be released by the non-tender deadline (Nov. 22). 

twinsroster111624.png

So the Twins can theoretically afford to be pretty liberal in handing out 40-man spots for players that they have any level of concern over losing. The flip side, though, is that rostering prospects puts their option clock into motion, so there is long-term risk in making this move with players who are still a distance from MLB readiness.

Here are eight prospects in the Twins organization who have reached Rule 5 eligibility, and would have a reasonable shot at being selected next month, but are not yet on the 40-man roster. For each, I've assigned a percentage chance of being protected by Tuesday's deadline, along with a bit of reasoning why.

Marco Raya, RHP
Probability: 100%

Why Protect Him: Raya is one of the best prospects in the Twins organization, ranked 10th by Twins Daily, and he's certainly one of the system's highest-caliber arms. Propelled by a standout slider, he owns a 3.75 ERA in 225 minor-league innings despite being pushed aggressively from a competitive standpoint. Raya finished this year at Triple-A as a 22-year-old, and has the potential to massively impact next year's team. He would definitely be taken, so the Twins will definitely protect him.

Ricardo Olivar, OF/C
Probability: 90%

Why Protect Him: His interesting defensive profile is a big draw for the underrated Olivar, who once again split time between catcher and left field in 2024 while climbing to Double-A. Olivar's useful glove(s) would make him fairly easy to stash on a major-league bench even if you don't believe his intriguing bat – disciplined, but a bit low on power so far – is ready for prime-time. Given their future question marks at the catcher position and their perpetual need for right-handed hitters, I can't see the Twins letting Olivar get away.

 

Kala’i Rosario, OF
Probability: 60%

Why Protect Him: Another potentially high-quality right-handed bat. He's got a big swing with a lot of raw power and a lot of whiff. Coming off a breakthrough season at Cedar Rapids in 2023, Rosario took a step backward and missed time with injury in 2024. But he held his own as a 21-year-old at Double-A, slashing .235/.321/.405 with 19 doubles and eight homers in 56 games. If left available for the Rule 5, I could see a team like Oakland snatching him and stashing him in an outfield corner or something, akin to Detroit poaching Akil Baddoo in 2021. 

 

Christian MacLeod, LHP
Probability: 50%

Why Protect Him: Simply put, the Twins really need left-handed pitchers. They currently have two on their 40-man roster, and they (Brent Headrick and Kody Funderburk) are fringe major-league talents. That's probably also true of MacLeod, but a little quantity wouldn't hurt. The former fifth-rounder from 2021 has rebounded from elbow surgery with a couple solid seasons, and he missed a lot of bats in Double-A this year despite upper-80s velocity. Southpaws who can get strikeouts are always in demand. I think whether or not they give MacLeod a spot on the 40-man roster will tell us much about the front office's ambitions (or lack thereof) to address this need externally.

 

Rubel Cespedes, IF
Probability: 35%

Why Protect Him: Although Cespedes hasn't played above Single-A, he's a relatively polished player at age 24. His seemingly pedestrian numbers in the pitcher-friendly Midwest League (.282/.346/.431 in 463 PA) are stronger in context than they appear at first glance. He's a lefty hitter who can capably play third and second in addition to first. That's the kind of positional prospect depth Minnesota would like to keep around, but it might be a stretch to envision him getting selected.

 

Will Holland, IF
Probability: 20%

Why Protect Him: Slick fielder who experienced a first-half offensive breakout in St. Paul, posting a .983 OPS before a broken leg ended his season in June. Those are really impressive numbers from a guy who can handle shortstop and center, but he was 26 playing in an inflated offensive environment. The previous year Holland put up a .606 OPS in Double-A. I wonder if the Twins are viewing him now similarly to how they viewed DaShawn Keirsey Jr. a year ago. (Incidentally, Keirsey went unprotected and unselected, but ended up getting some run for the Twins and is now on the 40-man roster.)

Travis Adams, RHP
Probability: 10%

Why Protect Him: He’s worth mentioning as a fairly live arm that saw some success at Double-A (3.67 ERA in 108 IP) and reached Triple-A at 24, but I'm not sure Adams ranks highly enough in the pitching pipeline hierarchy to justify carving out a spot for.

Noah Cardenas, C
Probability: 10%

Why Protect Him: The Twins need to have capable catchers handy. Cardenas hasn't shown he can hit (.173 AVG at Double-A last year), but he's a seasoned backstop with good defensive skills and he's 25. This is the kind of addition I could see the front office making if they planned to trade Christian Vázquez or Ryan Jeffers.

What do you think? Did I miss any noteworthy names on this list? Are my odds too high or too low for any of these players? Let me know in the comments.


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Posted

Unfortunately I don’t think any of this matters for the next few seasons. Sure you want to protect your assets, but until this team spends the way they could/should our roster is going almost nowhere.  

Posted

Adams is the toughest call, I think. (Raya is a no-brainer, and I think you have to protect Olivar and Rosario or lose them) Of the rest the only one that you'd lose is Adams. He's close enough to MLB that you could pretty easily stash him as a long reliever in MLB for most teams, and a bad one that's short on talent would definitely grab him IMHO. 

So what do the Twins really think of his potential to pitch effectively in MLB for them? He's pretty far down the pecking order for starting pitching prospects, but it's unclear if he could switch to the 'pen and be impactful or not. I think that's the tough selection.

Maybe you could sneak Olivar through this year; it's tough to keep position players on a roster for a full season who aren't realistically in a position to play and Olivar isn't. (there are questions about him at catcher, and while he profiles well as a hitter, he ain't ready to go to MLB) But losing him would be a huge loss. I'm risk adverse; we'll see if the Twins are on this.

Posted

The only player clear-cut to protect is Raya. Olivar has a lot of potential but his catching development is behind, which a good catcher-developing team could pick him up as an OFer while personally developing him as a catcher. His hitting has just arrived at AA so hitting hasn't been proven yet at the high MiLB level. Olivar has the potential to be a very good catcher which we desperately need. On the one hand, I'd like to keep him but on the other hand, if the Twins can't develop him, it'd be best for him if he went someplace where they can.

Posted
13 minutes ago, killertwinfan said:

Unfortunately I don’t think any of this matters for the next few seasons. Sure you want to protect your assets, but until this team spends the way they could/should our roster is going almost nowhere.  

Someone, somewhere, for every sports team that has existed since the start of the internet, has written this exact statement in the comments section of every article about every single team that has ever been. I don’t know if it is a copy/paste, or just something that’s needed to be said about an article that isn’t relevant to said article, but it is exactly written like this in every comments section that has ever happened. Incredible really.

That said, I would guess Adams makes the cut here, along with Raya and Olivar and probably Macleod. I can’t tell if Rosario will. Wouldn’t be shocked if one or two of them get traded before the deadline tomorrow. Trades for players like this can happen today and tomorrow, right?

Posted

Here are my ratings and percentages for addition to the 40-man roster: 

1.) RHP Marco Raya 100% 
          Pretty easy call. 

2.) C Ricardo Olivar 80%
          Dude can hit. He's solid behind the plate. Decent athlete. Very similar to Jair Camargo, without the power yet. Definitely not a catcher-slash-left fielder the way like Chris Herrmann was. If he plays OF in MLB, something went wrong on that day, but he can be out there. 

3.) C Patrick Winkel 75%
          Gotta protect catchers, and as noted, with the likelihood that Vazquez gets dealt (I'm not ready for them to trade Jeffers!), having depth in the upper levels is huge. The Twins really love Winkel, especially behind the plate. Didn't hit a ton at St. Paul this year, but he is a capable offensive player. 

4.) OF Kala'i Rosario 55%
         I think he will be added, but due to the swing-and-miss, the percentage drops a little closer to 50-50. But, he's got special power, and he's right-handed. He produces. 

5.) LHP Jovani Moran 50%
          We know he's in Ft. Myers working his way back from Tommy John surgery which he had November 1, 2023. That really puts him at about 16-17 months post-surgery in spring training. He just might be ready to compete for an opening day spot. And, when healthy, and when throwing strikes, he can be devastating out of the bullpen. 

6.) LHP Christian MacLeod 45%
          Another lefty, MacLeod returned from Tommy John surgery in 2023 and showed, especially in the second half of 2024, that he could be an intriguing prospect. Unlike Moran, Kody Funderburk, or the next guy on my list, MacLeod is a starting pitcher. He wouldn't be an opening day option, but by end of year, he could make himself a candidate for call up. 

7.) LHP Jaylen Nowlin 25%
          Continuing the LHP them, Nowlin has started and he had come out of the bullpen. Earlier he racked up a lot of strikeouts. Not so much in 2024. But he's left handed and sits in the mid-90s. Plus, it's his turn... he played high school ball with Braves OF Michael Harris and A's OF Lawrence Butler, so maybe it's his turn to break out. 

8.) RHP Travis Adams 10%
           While the numbers haven't always looked great, the stuff has a lot of potential. Adams has great control and he works 93-96 with the fastball. He's a starter, so he's got multiple pitches and can provided length. It's more a numbers game. I can't see the Twins adding more than 5-6 players, but I think Adams is one of a few guys who could see MLB time in 2025. 

 

Posted

It is not a group of outstanding prospects except Raya.  Rule 5 is a good thing for fringe players.  If they don't fit our profile they might fit elsewhere.  Rooker, Gil, Steer are good examples of quality players that did not fit our roster but did well elsewhere.  

When I look at a list like this and I think it reflects on the quality of our minor leagues.  Because we called up so many this year this list is less interesting than some of the past few years.  

Posted

Prospects :::

the front office likes to keep prospects , never trading them away and always losing them for nothing if they don't make the MLB  team ...

1 . yes they have some room on the 40 man roster for the better players  , our fringe players they need to make trades for younger players that dont need to be protected and they wouldn't have this problem every year  ...

2 . They have to learn to evaluate our  talent that is not going to be part of the future and package them in a trade  for a player that's somewhat established  in MLB and can play on the 26 man roster  ...

falvey is using the word creative more freely lately   , it's time for him to act on his words  ...

keep  the good ones like Raya  ...

 

Posted

I think Raya and Rosario for sure. Raya- is one of our top arms and Rodriguez has power that can be game changing, especially since he's right handed. I think the decision on Olivar depends on whether or not they think he can be a major league catcher. If so, he needs protection because we are seriously going to need some decent catching depth behind Jeffers. If he's only going to be an outfielder, we have plenty of those already. Maybe try to dangle him in a trade with someone else. As for the rest of the list, I think we're pretty safe not protecting any others.

Posted
19 minutes ago, Seth Stohs said:

Here are my ratings and percentages for addition to the 40-man roster: 

1.) RHP Marco Raya 100% 
          Pretty easy call. 

2.) C Ricardo Olivar 80%
          Dude can hit. He's solid behind the plate. Decent athlete. Very similar to Jair Camargo, without the power yet. Definitely not a catcher-slash-left fielder the way like Chris Herrmann was. If he plays OF in MLB, something went wrong on that day, but he can be out there. 

3.) C Patrick Winkel 75%
          Gotta protect catchers, and as noted, with the likelihood that Vazquez gets dealt (I'm not ready for them to trade Jeffers!), having depth in the upper levels is huge. The Twins really love Winkel, especially behind the plate. Didn't hit a ton at St. Paul this year, but he is a capable offensive player. 

4.) OF Kala'i Rosario 55%
         I think he will be added, but due to the swing-and-miss, the percentage drops a little closer to 50-50. But, he's got special power, and he's right-handed. He produces. 

5.) LHP Jovani Moran 50%
          We know he's in Ft. Myers working his way back from Tommy John surgery which he had November 1, 2023. That really puts him at about 16-17 months post-surgery in spring training. He just might be ready to compete for an opening day spot. And, when healthy, and when throwing strikes, he can be devastating out of the bullpen. 

6.) LHP Christian MacLeod 45%
          Another lefty, MacLeod returned from Tommy John surgery in 2023 and showed, especially in the second half of 2024, that he could be an intriguing prospect. Unlike Moran, Kody Funderburk, or the next guy on my list, MacLeod is a starting pitcher. He wouldn't be an opening day option, but by end of year, he could make himself a candidate for call up. 

7.) LHP Jaylen Nowlin 25%
          Continuing the LHP them, Nowlin has started and he had come out of the bullpen. Earlier he racked up a lot of strikeouts. Not so much in 2024. But he's left handed and sits in the mid-90s. Plus, it's his turn... he played high school ball with Braves OF Michael Harris and A's OF Lawrence Butler, so maybe it's his turn to break out. 

8.) RHP Travis Adams 10%
           While the numbers haven't always looked great, the stuff has a lot of potential. Adams has great control and he works 93-96 with the fastball. He's a starter, so he's got multiple pitches and can provided length. It's more a numbers game. I can't see the Twins adding more than 5-6 players, but I think Adams is one of a few guys who could see MLB time in 2025. 

 

Forgot about Moran. I'm almost ready to pencil him into the bullpen as well, barring health. Wouldn't be shocked if he opens at AAA though.

 

Do you know, could they make a trade for Rosario (for example) today or tomorrow morning so they don't have to worry about protecting him?

Posted
8 minutes ago, Cory Engelhardt said:

Forgot about Moran. I'm almost ready to pencil him into the bullpen as well, barring health. Wouldn't be shocked if he opens at AAA though.

 

Do you know, could they make a trade for Rosario (for example) today or tomorrow morning so they don't have to worry about protecting him?

Certainly. You see that a few times a year around the league. 

Posted

I will go with just Raya. The Rule 5 draft is overhyped every year. Almost nobody gets picked and out of the players who get picked its mostly relief pitchers who are kept.

Almost every team has their own marginal prospects like Rosario and Olivar. Additionally, many teams have someone who is out of options that they want to keep on the MLB roster. With the expanded playoffs almost everyone is trying to contend. There is no room on an MLB roster for a position player who can't play when you only have a 3-man bench. The Twins made their position player moves in September when they added Helman and Keirsey.

Looking around the league the focus is on Boston, who has a full 40-man roster. They signed Michael Fulmer to a 2-year minor league contract last season while he rehabbed from ligament replacement surgery and now they don't even have room to add him to the roster. I wouldn't be surprised to see Boston make a couple trades today.

Posted
50 minutes ago, Cory Engelhardt said:

Wouldn’t be shocked if one or two of them get traded before the deadline tomorrow. Trades for players like this can happen today and tomorrow, right?

I'd expect some 2-for-1 or 3-for-1 type deal have been discussed in order to open up more protection slots. Hopefully the 40 man looks a little different soon (maybe trading Vasquez with an arm and a middle IF for Teel for instance). Boston has some money to spend and they're one team that could absorb Vasquez.

I wasn't familiar before with MacLeod. I like what I saw in the short clip. His delivery might be part of what makes him an effective strikeout pitcher, and we all know about the shortage of lefties in the system. But I wondered if he enjoys similar results out of the stretch. He'd be my "maybe" addition to the protection list. Talented Holland is a tough call with the leg and his age. Good trade candidate to me. Cardenas is a reminder of how thin we are at catching prospects in the system. Guess we need to keep him - he can field the position, but he is Jerry Zimmerman with the bat. I'm good with the rest of the proposed list. It'll be fun to see the departures and additions.

Posted

2022 rule 5 draft had 2 position players taken, Noda and Sabol. Noda had a good first year, sophomore slump last year. Sabol played at a replacement level for the Giants, pretty much got moved out of the catcher position,  2023 saw 2 position players taken. Nunez who is a defensive, speed no hit utility player was kept, de Los santos was returned. 2021 had 51 total players taken, and I didn’t see a name that stood out LeBlanc got his year in Miami and was released after the following year in the minors, Young was drafted by Washington and was not claimed back when sent to the minors, Maciel was returned, Ronnie Dawson was kept and releases at the end of the year, Nogowski was released. Kirwer was returned That is the first 6 selected position players  Of the 10 position players I looked up, 1 good season out of multiple. I think by and large the FO do a decent job of knowing what position players will make an impact and which ones don’t in protecting position players. If Olivar is near ready, then they protect him as he actually has hit in the minors. If he is not protected i think the chance that he is a viable starting catcher goes way down 

Posted
34 minutes ago, mikelink45 said:

It is not a group of outstanding prospects except Raya.  Rule 5 is a good thing for fringe players.  If they don't fit our profile they might fit elsewhere.  Rooker, Gil, Steer are good examples of quality players that did not fit our roster but did well elsewhere.  

When I look at a list like this and I think it reflects on the quality of our minor leagues.  Because we called up so many this year this list is less interesting than some of the past few years.  

Rule v has been a good thing for fringe pitchers 

Posted

Raya is 100%. Olivar depends on what their plans are with Vazquez, Jeffers, and Camargo. I don't see them carrying 4 catchers on the 40-man, but if they are serious about moving one of the others they'll protect him. Don't see them protecting any of the others.

We do this every year. Freak out about losing guys. Especially position players. There are very few position players selected in the 40-man. I don't see anyone else who needs protecting who isn't a dime a dozen type prospect. Losing Baddoo was the end of the world a handful of years ago and the front office were the biggest fools ever, and now he's never talked about because he's an easily replaceable player like basically everyone else selected in the Rule 5. Most overhyped part of the offseason every year.

Posted

Will be interesting couple days and your article gives us something worthwhile to think about for the next 30 hours or so.

My one thought looking at this list is that it doesn't have the high level talent we often see.  I guess some of that is due to the fact that a lot of the best prospects were added over the past year.

Perhaps the most meaningful move, or non-move, the Twins could make in the next two days is keeping Canterino on the 40-man.  That would tell us they believe he is likely to be available in 2025.  Considering he is potentially better than any of the above prospects, that could be HUGE!

Posted
1 hour ago, Seth Stohs said:

Here are my ratings and percentages for addition to the 40-man roster: 

1.) RHP Marco Raya 100% 
2.) C Ricardo Olivar 80%
3.) C Patrick Winkel 75%
4.) OF Kala'i Rosario 55%
 5.) LHP Jovani Moran 50%
 6.) LHP Christian MacLeod 45%
 7.) LHP Jaylen Nowlin 25%
 8.) RHP Travis Adams 10%

If you add up these odds it puts the over/under at adding 4.5 players to the roster. I will take the under on that. They're not going to fill the roster with Double-A players when they have so many needs at the MLB level.

With the exception of Raya, divide all those numbers by two (or more).

Posted
5 minutes ago, DJL44 said:

I will go with just Raya. The Rule 5 draft is overhyped every year. Almost nobody gets picked and out of the players who get picked its mostly relief pitchers who are kept.

Almost every team has their own marginal prospects like Rosario and Olivar. Additionally, many teams have someone who is out of options that they want to keep on the MLB roster. With the expanded playoffs almost everyone is trying to contend. There is no room on an MLB roster for a position player who can't play when you only have a 3-man bench. The Twins made their position player moves in September when they added Helman and Keirsey.

Looking around the league the focus is on Boston, who has a full 40-man roster. They signed Michael Fulmer to a 2-year minor league contract last season while he rehabbed from ligament replacement surgery and now they don't even have room to add him to the roster. I wouldn't be surprised to see Boston make a couple trades today.

100% agree here.  All the talk about Keirsey not being given a chance, yet he was left off the 40-man last year and no one took him.

The only ones I can see truly at risk and needing to be added are Raya, probably Olivar and Moran.  Defensive, no-hit 4A catchers are relatively easy to find.  Any position player below AAA will not be kept on a team's MLB roster all season.  Pitchers can be hidden, but anyone that was truly an asset last year would already be protected.

If the Twins only had 2 open spots, there would be no discussion here.  The fact they have so many opens up this discussion.

Posted

Ok, please reward me with a thumbs-down for my earlier post. I wasn't aware that Boston's 40 man was full!

And I do agree with another poster commenting on the relative dearth of talent on this year's protection list. I just hope that many other teams cut more talented players than we do.

Posted

Best I can tell, in 2023, only two position players were selected. Old Nurse summarizes other drafts above. With only four bench spots for position players (five on occasion, if a team goes with a seven-man bullpen for a while), I think it's really difficult for a team to lock a fringe player into one of those spots for the entire year. 

 

Posted
4 minutes ago, IndianaTwin said:

With only four bench spots for position players

It's really just 3 spots. Every team carries two catchers and the second catcher is expected to play 40% of the games. Nobody has room to carry a position player they don't want to play.

Posted

I'd keep Nowlin over McLeod. I know the results say otherwise, but I'd never trust someone throwing under 90 MPH on the major league mound. Also, based on the Twins letting Severino walk, I wouldn't be surprised to see Rosario unprotected. 

I really only need to see Raya protected, but that would leave four open roster spots, and frankly, I have no interest in filling them with dime store free agents, so go ahead, give them to the kids for all I care. I'd rather see Rosario or Holland than the 2025 version of Manny Margot.

Posted
1 hour ago, Seth Stohs said:

...3.) C Patrick Winkel 75%
          Gotta protect catchers, and as noted, with the likelihood that Vazquez gets dealt (I'm not ready for them to trade Jeffers!), having depth in the upper levels is huge. The Twins really love Winkel, especially behind the plate. Didn't hit a ton at St. Paul this year, but he is a capable offensive player...

 

I'm interested to know why the Twins like Winkel so much? He'll be 25, he struggled at the plate (wRC+ 65) due in large part to plate discipline 6.4% BB, 30.3% K, couldn't catch base runners and he allowed 5 passed balls in just 576 innings.

I'd be surprised if the Twins couldn't find a better veteran option on a MiLB deal, but maybe I'm missing something?

Posted
1 hour ago, old nurse said:

2022 rule 5 draft had 2 position players taken, Noda and Sabol. Noda had a good first year, sophomore slump last year. Sabol played at a replacement level for the Giants, pretty much got moved out of the catcher position 24 saw 2 position players taken. Nunez who is a defensive, speed no hit utility player was kept, de Los santos was returned. 2021 had 51 total players taken, and I didn’t see a name that stood out LeBlanc got his year in Miami and was released after the following year in the minors, Young was drafted by Washington and was not claimed back when sent to the minors, Maciel was returned, Ronnie Dawson was kept and releases at the end of the year, Nogowski was released. Kirwer was returned That is the first 6 selected position players  Of the 10 position players I looked up, 1 good season out of multiple. I think by and large the FO do a decent job of knowing what position players will make an impact and which ones don’t in protecting position players. If Olivar is near ready, then they protect him as he actually has hit in the minors. If he is not protected i think the chance that he is a viable starting catcher goes way down 

I definitely agree with your general point that we make a huge deal about potentially losing a player since so few are taken and those that are taken rarely become stars.  But... I think you'd also have to look at which position players were protected and how they're doing. Of course, another side of the conversation is that a ton of players get added way before they have to be. (Example, Zebby Matthews didn't have to be added until after the 2025 season.)

Posted
1 hour ago, IndianaTwin said:

Best I can tell, in 2023, only two position players were selected. Old Nurse summarizes other drafts above. With only four bench spots for position players (five on occasion, if a team goes with a seven-man bullpen for a while), I think it's really difficult for a team to lock a fringe player into one of those spots for the entire year. 

 

Nunez was taken and kept. He was a know defensive specialist and pinch running speedster. The other one was returned. 

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