Ricardo Olivar: An Underrated Prospect the Twins Must Protect in the Rule 5 Draft

I whole heartedly agree!

Scouting reports say Olivar has a weak arm and his catching skills are raw, but at least the front office did shift him away from the 50/50 split moving him to 70% C, 15% DH, 15% LF. He's not a right fielder (weak arm), and the Twins' affiliates have never played him there. Perhaps Falvey has recognized just how poorly he's drafted / developed catchers for the past 5 years?

Falvey seems to have a bit of an almost bizarre obsession to develop a dual role catcher (Olivar, '24 draft Diaw, '24 draft Bender). They've now pushed Olivar into as much catching as I think they could, but maybe that's out of desperation after finally recognizing how thin the talent in the Twins' system really is after years and years of Falvey's neglect. Diaw was an incredible long shot at catcher from the beginning, and Bender wasn't really expected to be able to stick at catcher either. Positional flexibility nonsense?

Anyway, despite all the positional flexibility (everybody is bad at defense everywhere) philosophy, Falvey never took advantage of the positional flexibility he had at the catcher position. Kyle Farmer was drafted by the Dodgers as a SS, but developed as a catcher, starting games behind the dish for LA, and then Cincinnati after the Dodgers traded him. The Twins never had Kyle Farmer catch, and I always wondered about that. Maybe the Twins' initial interest in Farmer was at least partially under the assumption he could be a backup catcher?

Farmer address that at 11:00 in the interview. Farmer does not want to catch, but he'll do it if he absolutely has to. That said, if he's not working out preparing for it, he's not going to be in the physical shape to do the job more than once a week during the season, I wouldn't think. 

Background on that. In 2012, the Yankees and Reds were both interested in Farmer as catcher, but Farmer didn't want to catch as he was an All American shortstop at Georgia (not at all a catcher) so Farmer didn't sign when the Yankees drafted him. The next year, he says everybody wanted him to catch so he gave in when the Dodgers drafted him. Farmer addresses this starting at 8:45. His first game catching was in the minors... he put the shin guards on backwards LOL.

4 hours ago, chpettit19 said:

Yeah, I don't see it. Agree with others that if he were truly a catcher he'd be catching and not moving around so much. Gleeman named him as a lock in his Rule 5 article so maybe I'm missing something, but absolutely nothing about him jumps out to me as a must add. What he has going for him is that the Twins have no money to spend and have opened a number of 40-man spots. So he has a chance. But I don't see any reason he's a must add at all. 

Yeah I don't know what Gleeman see's that we don't.  He's been a solid hitter with good plate discipline since he got started, but there is no standout tool that I can see other than plate discipline and maybe contact rate?  With a .626 OPS at AA and below average catching skills I don't see him getting taken in Rule V. He needs more time in the minors to see if he can master the breaking stuff they throw there.

I guess if you think he has elite contact skills and you believe he can be backup catcher you can squint your way there, but he isn't fast and he doesn't look ready for MLB to me.

There are two reasons to add a prospect to the 40-man; 1. they are ready to play in the majors, 2. you need to protect them from somebody else both claiming them in Rule 5 AND keeping them all year.

I like Olivar, but he is no lock to play in the majors anytime soon, and in an era when very few position players get claimed in Rule 5 (like 2-3 a year across all baseball) there is no reason to put him on the 40-man. (And if you do put him on to protect him from Rule 5, and then need the spot later, he goes on waivers where he can be claimed with no rules about having to keep him all year.)

Williams elected MiLB free agency on 11/4. His likelihood of returning to the Twins is probably high, but any team could sign him. He isn't likely to hit well at the MLB level even though he's been a tick above league average at AAA the past couple years, it comes with a 32% K rate for the 27 year old. Defensively, Williams has gotten serviceable levels of controlling the run game and he doesn't allow passed balls. He's probably okay there. When it comes to catcher framing, who knows? He's basically a minor league journeyman, but with the Twins' terrible depth right now at catcher, it's possible Williams could get a look.
Steamer projects .189/.277/.344 OPS .621 wRC+ 77, which is... occasionally playable in a pretty desperate catching situation so Williams could be Rule 5 selected or it's possible the Twins could bring him back, but at age 28 next year, having never been on the 40 man, he's far from typical prospect status.

Winkel had more consistent success coming up through the minors than Williams, but last year Williams had the far superior bat. Winkel's .228/.279/.362 OPS .642 amounted to wRC+ 65 at AAA. Like Williams, Winkel also struck out north of 30% of the time, but he didn't take walks to help offset. Winkel also needs a lot of work defensively. He was unable to control the run game, and he had 5 passed balls last year. I don't think of Winkel as more than MiLB roster filler right now.

1 hour ago, gman said:

How many teams can afford to have a third catcher on their roster all year? Unless they think he can play the outfield some at the major league level.

Plenty. The ones who are rebuilding.

10 minutes ago, chpettit19 said:

How many teams in recent years actually carried 3 catchers all year? How many teams would you consider as rebuilding to the point where they're willing to completely ignore an entire roster spot? The White Sox? Any other?

The Rockies owner always thinks they can win. The Marlins are reshaping their organization with Peter Bendix being in his 2nd year as POBO and with a new manager. They're not just throwing away a roster spot on a third catcher. Washington is trying to win. Pittsburgh is trying to win. Cinci is trying to win. San Fran is trying to win. The Angels are the Rockies of the AL. The As won't trade Rooker cuz they're trying to win. The Blue Jays won't trade Bichette or Vlad cuz they're trying to win. The Rangers aren't wasting a roster spot on a 3rd catcher. The Rays would never. That's every team under .500 from last year.

I'm not seeing "plenty" there at all. You have to feel real confident in your job security to be willing to use a roster spot on a 3rd catcher on your roster all season.

The question was How many teams can afford to have a third catcher on their roster all year? The answer to that question is any team not planning to compete, which is "plenty."

Aside from that, Olivar is not strictly a catcher.