Would the Twins Trade Pablo López? Examining a Potential Blockbuster with the Boston Red Sox

[Cody Christie]

The Twins need to shake up the core of the roster this winter. Would the club trade their ace for one of baseball’s best prospects, in a blockbuster deal?

Image courtesy of Matt Blewett-Imagn Images

In an intriguing hypothetical blockbuster, the Minnesota Twins could send Pablo López, Jorge Alcala, and prospect Dameury Peña to the Boston Red Sox in exchange for top shortstop prospect Marcelo Mayer and left-handed reliever Brennan Bernardino. The deal offers both risk and reward for both clubs. From each team's perspective, let’s dive into the pros and cons of such a move.

Why the Twins Would Consider This Deal
The Twins have seen incredible value in López since acquiring him from Miami, as he evolved into an ace-caliber starter. López’s electric stuff and steady presence atop Minnesota’s rotation give the team a dependable frontline starter. However, with López’s increasing salary and the team’s payroll limitations, the front office might be tempted to sell high if they can acquire cornerstone talent.

Pro: Marcelo Mayer’s Upside
Marcelo Mayer is Minnesota's main attraction in this deal. The 21-year-old is one of baseball’s premier shortstop prospects, offering high offensive potential and defensive chops. MLB Pipeline currently ranks him as baseball’s seventh overall prospect. Last season, he hit .307/.370/.480 with 28 doubles and eight homers in 77 games at Double-A. The Twins’ infield depth has been a strength, but with Carlos Correa locked in at shortstop, Mayer would have time to develop and eventually transition into an impact player. For Minnesota, acquiring Mayer would mean securing their long-term infield future and adding depth for when Correa might need to move to another defensive home.

Pro: Filling the Need for a Left-Handed Reliever
Brennan Bernardino, a durable left-handed reliever, fills an area of need for the Twins with Caleb Thielbar slated to be a free agent. While they have talent in their bullpen, they lack consistency from the left side, making Bernardino a valuable addition. Last season, he held lefties to a .291 OBP and struck out 33 batters in 118 PA. Bernardino has not reached arbitration, putting him under team control through 2029. He could slot into middle relief immediately and be a long-term fixture for a team that wants to avoid bullpen struggles late in the year.

Con: Risk in Moving Pablo López
Moving López would leave a sizable hole in Minnesota’s rotation. While the team has depth, none of the current starters can replicate López’s dominance and durability, especially against high-caliber teams. Letting go of López means the Twins would be banking on young arms like Joe Ryan and Bailey Ober to lead the staff, and they’d need breakout seasons from prospects like David Festa and Zebby Matthews. Losing López could add pressure to the front office to find rotation help in free agency or through another trade.

Con: Bullpen Depth Takes a Hit
Alongside López, the Twins would also lose Jorge Alcalá, a promising, high-upside bullpen arm. Though Alcalá has faced injury setbacks, he showed flashes of being a reliable late-inning reliever. Trading him in this deal, along with López, weakens the rotation and bullpen, making it challenging for the Twins to contend if they don’t find immediate replacements. However, he is only under team control for one more year, so it might be the right time to cash in his remaining value. 

Why the Red Sox Would Consider This Deal
This deal could represent a win-now move for the Red Sox that dramatically boosts their starting rotation and bullpen.

Pro: Adding an Ace to the Rotation
Boston struggled to find reliable rotation pieces last season, and Pablo López would be a game-changer. With López’s experience and pitch arsenal, he could quickly establish himself as the Red Sox’s ace. Boston is looking to compete in the highly competitive AL East, and adding López to their rotation provides a significant upgrade that could help them contend for the postseason in the near term.

Pro: Bolstering the Bullpen
Alcalá’s addition would help round out Boston’s bullpen. Alcalá could thrive in a late-inning role with his power arm if he remains healthy. His fastball-slider combination has always been compelling. The Twins have used Alcalá in puzzling ways in recent seasons, and it might be in his best interest to go to a new organization. Boston’s relief corps has had its ups and downs, and Alcalá’s upside makes him an appealing addition, especially if the Red Sox believe they can keep him healthy.

Con: Losing a Future Star in Mayer
Parting with Mayer is a significant gamble for Boston. Mayer has the potential to be a franchise cornerstone, with many expecting him to quickly impact the big-league roster. Trading him would mean Boston prioritizes immediate success over their long-term future at shortstop, potentially leaving a gap if their infield depth doesn’t materialize as expected. They would have to believe that current options or future shortstop prospects can fill the void Mayer leaves.

Con: A Big Bet on the Current Roster
The Red Sox are a team in transition, and giving up a top prospect like Mayer would signal a strong commitment to contending in the immediate term. If they fall short of a playoff berth, this trade could look like a misstep in hindsight, as they would be sacrificing Mayer’s long-term value for the here and now. Expectations are always high for the Red Sox, and their fan base will hardly forget this trade if Mayer turns into a star. 

For the Twins, moving López and Alcalá is no small decision, and it would require a serious belief in Mayer’s upside and Bernardino’s ability to make an impact. Minnesota would be banking on the long-term benefits of securing a premier shortstop talent in Mayer while bolstering their left-handed relief options.

Boston, meanwhile, would acquire the impact arm they desperately need at the top of their rotation. However, sacrificing Mayer’s immense potential is a steep price and would represent a win-now mindset. They’d have to contend seriously for this trade to make sense, with Alcalá’s health and López’s performance playing crucial roles in their success.

Would Minnesota be willing to part with one of its top starting pitchers? Would Boston really let go of Mayer, one of baseball’s best prospects? These questions make this deal intriguing, but it’s a fascinating potential trade to explore that would send shockwaves across both fan bases.

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Which front office says no to this trade? Leave a COMMENT and start the discussion.

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[Cory Engelhardt]

Even if Mayer is a great prospect, I can't seem to understand the upside in trading their ace.

I do actually like the Twins depth in terms of how the rotation is shaping up, but that doesn't include trading their best pitcher.

I also don't see how trading away Lopez helps the overall value of the team in a potential sale.

[Parfigliano]

Why the constant push around here to trade Lopez?  Good SP is a rare commodity.  With their history they should know this.

[Fire Dan Gladden]

Trading any of the big six (Lopez, Ober, Ryan, Buxton, Lewis, Correa) signals a fire sale and rebuilding effort is coming, but moving your SP1 on a this team would be a pure disaster on so many levels.

Ignoring the on-field ramifications for a minute, this is a horrible perception move.  The new media contract requires fans to be interested to make money.  This would destroy any goodwill left.  Ownership is walking a fine line until this team gets sold.  A move like this could put this team in a downward optics spiral that might take years to recover from.

[ashbury]

10 minutes ago, Cory Engelhardt said:

I can't seem to understand the upside in trading their ace.

 

6 minutes ago, Parfigliano said:

Why the constant push around here to trade Lopez? 

 

Just now, Fire Dan Gladden said:

Trading any of the big six (Lopez, Ober, Ryan, Buxton, Lewis, Correa) signals a fire sale

Derek Falvey's profit-sharing check from the Pohlads depends on getting out from under $21M+ of payroll.  Simple as that.

[Cory Engelhardt]

4 minutes ago, Fire Dan Gladden said:

Trading any of the big six (Lopez, Ober, Ryan, Buxton, Lewis, Correa) signals a fire sale and rebuilding effort is coming, but moving your SP1 on a this team would be a pure disaster on so many levels.

Ignoring the on-field ramifications for a minute, this is a horrible perception move.  The new media contract requires fans to be interested to make money.  This would destroy any goodwill left.  Ownership is walking a fine line until this team gets sold.  A move like this could put this team in a downward optics spiral that might take years to recover from.

This. 100%

That said, depending on the return, I could see Ober being listened on. Jax too. Really anyone who is coming off a career year makes more sense to me. Not that I want to trade them, but trading ANYONE coming off a down and/or injured year just does not make sense.

[DJL44]

Correa is the short and medium-term SS for the Twins. Long-term isn't usually worth planning for in baseball except "acquire as much young talent as you can".

[Vanimal46]

1 hour ago, Parfigliano said:

Why the constant push around here to trade Lopez?  Good SP is a rare commodity.  With their history they should know this.

In case if you haven’t heard, we have no money to work with. It’s not like anyone wants to trade Lopez, but he’s the one player we have that accomplishes two things - most money to shed from the payroll, and most value received back in a trade. 

[Vanimal46]

1 hour ago, Fire Dan Gladden said:

Trading any of the big six (Lopez, Ober, Ryan, Buxton, Lewis, Correa) signals a fire sale and rebuilding effort is coming, but moving your SP1 on a this team would be a pure disaster on so many levels.

Ignoring the on-field ramifications for a minute, this is a horrible perception move.  The new media contract requires fans to be interested to make money.  This would destroy any goodwill left.  Ownership is walking a fine line until this team gets sold.  A move like this could put this team in a downward optics spiral that might take years to recover from.

I disagree. Where have the fans been the last 3 seasons with the big 6 in tact? What goodwill is left to ruin? 

[JD-TWINS]

1 hour ago, Cory Engelhardt said:

Even if Mayer is a great prospect, I can't seem to understand the upside in trading their ace.

I do actually like the Twins depth in terms of how the rotation is shaping up, but that doesn't include trading their best pitcher.

I also don't see how trading away Lopez helps the overall value of the team in a potential sale.

Right & right. Trading Lopez is a tough thought to process & why do this if you are trying to sell an Asset for $1.5B ……..devaluing the Club in the short term??

If they traded Lopez to greatly improve the club…….I might get that. Trading him for a prospect and an average reliever doesn’t make much sense. Throwing in Alcala & anyone else makes less sense to me.

For the 3rd time today, I like trading Duran & Z. Matthews to Boston for Tristan Casas. If they can save an additional $12M by trading away some salary (Paddack - Castro - Jeffers) & add a bat, that would be great. This deal gets them $3.7M to add to another $12M for this said BAT.

Castro - Jeffers - Paddack to AZ for their Catcher, Moreno…..enough from Twins?

[TopGunn#22]

Trading Lopez is not automatically turning the Twins into a pumpkin.  It all depends on the moves they would make in addition to a Lopez trade.

As I mentioned in an earlier post regarding all these "what if we traded" pieces TD is churning out, the Mariners moved on from Ken Griffey Jr., Randy Johnson and Alex Rodriguez in back to back seasons and then went on to win an American League record 116 games.  

I'm not advocating for the Twins to trade Lopez.  But it really does depend on what moves the team makes and who we get in the Lopez deal to begin with.  Tony&rodney would probably rather have Boston include Teel rather than Mayer.  Boston currently has Connor Wong doing a fine job behind the plate.  Maybe Boston would rather deal Teel than Mayer.  Trevor Story's health may lead Boston to treat Mayer as untouchable.  

But with the money saved from a Lopez deal what if the Twins went out and signed Roki Sasaki?  His cost initially will be between $4-$8 million of international signing bonus depending on when he's actually posted.  What if the Twins signed Kikuchi or a similar vet SP?  And/or moved Jax to the rotation and signed a LHP RP like Chapman or Ferguson?  Sasaki is VERY interesting.  Everybody assumes he's going to the Dodgers.  But with the cost for the 23 year old being so affordable and the rumor he may prefer a smaller market, it's more realistic than you'd think. 

Would a rotation of Ryan, Ober, Sasaki , Jax and Festa (with maybe Kikuchi and Jax still in the pen) make Twins fans happy.  I could live with that.  

But a blockbuster deal like that would need to be followed up with a couple more trades.  Moving Paddack and Vasquez is a priority.  If Teel were substituted for Mayer it's a LOT easier to consider moving Vasquez and not caring what you get back.  

There is also talk that the Phillies are strongly considering moving 28 year old 3B/1B Alex Bohm.  Bohm hit .280 last year with 15 HR's, a .779 OPS and 97 RBI.  Royce Lewis and Alex Bohm on your corner IF spots would be pretty nice for the next 7-8 years.  If Bohm could be had in a package for SWR I'd go for that in a heartbeat.  

Does trading Lopez make the Twins better for 2025 and beyond?  It all depends on what the Twins get and what other moves are made.  But discounting it out of hand without giving it some serious thought is not acceptable.  The point of TD is to vigorously debate these scenarios.  I'm happy they're putting them out there.  Some might be wildly speculative, but to me, that's O.K.  I love the debate.  

[jorgenswest]

No mention of Marcelo Mayer’s injury history. He missed half of 2023 with shoulder issues and 2024 with back issues. I think the Red Sox would be wise to trade him for a good starter.

I have no interest in a late blooming reliever entering his 33 year old season. Didn’t we try that last year? With velocity in the low 90s there is no space for decline.

[Rod Carews Birthday]

Nope.  
 

Trading a star player for prospects is something you do when out of contention at the deadline, not something you do over the winter.  That being said, I would need much more in return for three years of Lopez.  

[tony&rodney]

Mayer struggles with off speed pitches and while he is a top prospect he is also slow. The Twins need to improve in that area. Try to interest Arizona in Duran, Topa, Castro, plus $4M or perhaps Yasser Mercedes for Jordan Lawler. If Falvey talks with Boston his target is Kyle Teel.

[Doctor Gast]

Losing our only true veteran SP would be a big blow to the stability of the rotation. Alcala would not be as esteemed to Boston as he is to MN & Pena is a long way away. I'm sorry Boston would laugh in your face. IMO Boston highly esteems Mayers & they need Bernadino. The trade balance highly favors MN. To get Mayers Boston has to be extremely desperate & the Twins will have to blow them away with an offer they can't refuse plus remember we have Falvey.

The way that Falvey is handling our open window. I'd blow the whole thing up! Suppose Boston has a good shot early in the season & is desperate & most likely we're out of the playoffs. In that case, they come to us & say we'll trade you Mayers & Teel for Lopez, Correa, Jeffers & Duran- I under the circumstances would do it, because I don't see us making the postseason for awhile after Falvey is done doing his thing. Maybe after new ownership, Lewis becomes the new team leader & new FO; another window would eventually open.

[Doctor Gast]

1 hour ago, jorgenswest said:

No mention of Marcelo Mayer’s injury history. He missed half of 2023 with shoulder issues and 2024 with back issues. I think the Red Sox would be wise to trade him for a good starter.

I have no interest in a late blooming reliever entering his 33 year old season. Didn’t we try that last year? With velocity in the low 90s there is no space for decline.

Good point JW, the injury history changes things a bit.

[Mike Sixel]

Ha. I don't think that's enough! I want Teel and another great prospect for Lopez straight up, or it's not happening. 

[gmwannabe]

I agree that it needs to be Teel or no deal with the Bosox. I think O'hoppe is a better option for the Twins. The Angels can get an ace without paying mega free agent prices and the Angels have just the right handed corner outfielder we desperately need in Taylor Ward. So the Twins send Lopez,  Wallner, Julien,  and Raya to the Angels for O'hoppe, Ward, Anderson, and Detmers. Salaries match up at about 23 million per side. O'hoppe will be expensive in trade capital but immediately improves our catching.  Anderson is a  drop off in the rotation for a year but a solid starter that could be extended. Emma will move in to RF at some point in 2025, moving Ward to LF and upgrading that position too. If Detmers can finally figure it out at AAA, (he is a 1st round draft pick) we add starter depth or move him to the pen for a much needed left handed option. 

[bean5302]

I'd have no interest in trading Lopez for "prospects." Lopez is a known quantity on on a team friendly contract, and prospects often struggle. Berrios' 8.02 ERA first 14 games in MLB in 2016 should be a stark reminder of that fact.

If going the trade for prospects direction, the Twins should be desperate to get out from under Correa's contract as well to start a rebuild which means any player with less than 3yrs of team control should be shopped hard. If the rebuild approach is the direction they take, that's up to them. I think it'd be short-sighted, but it's their team.

A player like Sasaki could be a huge signing to replace Lopez in a scenario as described above, but come on. You think Sasaki is coming to a franchise that's casting off their best players with the team up for sale with a short term front office in disarray? Even if the Twins were top bidders, there's no way they're a top destination. A lot has been talked about in regard to Sasaki's preference for a lower pressure media market. Sure, Minneapolis is fine for that, but so are 20 other teams all bidding for him, and most of them aren't casting off their best players, cutting salary and up for sale.

[laloesch]

20 hours ago, Vanimal46 said:

In case if you haven’t heard, we have no money to work with. It’s not like anyone wants to trade Lopez, but he’s the one player we have that accomplishes two things - most money to shed from the payroll, and most value received back in a trade. 

True, but it's self-imposed.  The Pohlads want out and are cutting where they can to reduce payroll and pocket more while clearing the sheets for a new owner to come in and have a clean slate.  If most of the roster is arbitration or pre-arbitration it means they exit with even more money in their pockets.  Fans better be prepared for a fire sale and decades of losing.  I find it distasteful, but the sooner they sell the better.  They (Pohlads) have clearly checked out and even Falvey is groaning about what they are doing. 

[TheLeviathan]

I'm cool with exploring options to essentially blow this team up.  Including trading Lopez for prospects.

But this deal ain't it.

[old nurse]

I think these trade everybody clickbait’s would be more interesting if they found fans of other teams wanting any of these players. It would probably be a very quick series 

[terrydactyls]

12 hours ago, old nurse said:

I think these trade everybody clickbait’s would be more interesting if they found fans of other teams wanting any of these players. It would probably be a very quick series 

I am NOT a fan of the Red Sox, but I do live in New England.  The big talk out here is that the BoSox are aiming at winning it all in 2025 and that they are going all-in on acquiring Juan Soto.  If that happens, I'm not sure if that would increase interest in Lopez or leave them basking in the glory of a huge signing with no interest in doing more.  The BoSox leadership is nearly as weird as the Twins.  They might be willing to drain the farm system in order to beat the Yankees.

[bean5302]

3 hours ago, terrydactyls said:

I am NOT a fan of the Red Sox, but I do live in New England.  The big talk out here is that the BoSox are aiming at winning it all in 2025 and that they are going all-in on acquiring Juan Soto.  If that happens, I'm not sure if that would increase interest in Lopez or leave them basking in the glory of a huge signing with no interest in doing more.  The BoSox leadership is nearly as weird as the Twins.  They might be willing to drain the farm system in order to beat the Yankees.

From Boston Red Sox fans, I'd wager, haha. Red Sox ownership hasn't been spending big for a few years and seemingly wanted to avoid wallet explosions. Big investments they've made like Trevor Story wound up being a mess as well.

I'd be pretty surprised to see the Red Sox bring in Juan Soto when they already have quality, cheap and team controlled outfielders with other, bigger needs.

[old nurse]

9 hours ago, terrydactyls said:

I am NOT a fan of the Red Sox, but I do live in New England.  The big talk out here is that the BoSox are aiming at winning it all in 2025 and that they are going all-in on acquiring Juan Soto.  If that happens, I'm not sure if that would increase interest in Lopez or leave them basking in the glory of a huge signing with no interest in doing more.  The BoSox leadership is nearly as weird as the Twins.  They might be willing to drain the farm system in order to beat the Yankees.

The most common names to come up for trade are Grochet, Montgomery Sonny Gray and Luzardo. The only place that I found mention of trading Lopez is here.  

[jjswol]

That has to be one of the worst trade offers for the Twins that I have ever seen on this site. Wowsers!

[tony&rodney]

Mayer has some skills and has status as a top twenty prospect, but he is not a target or a match for an arm like Pablo Lopez. Mayer is Brooks Lee with less experience with Mayer having a better shot at sticking at shortstop. However, the Twins have a shortstop and don't need to consider any trades for utility players.

[FargoFanMan]

On 11/14/2024 at 1:23 PM, Mike Sixel said:

Ha. I don't think that's enough! I want Teel and another great prospect for Lopez straight up, or it's not happening. 

Agreed, only I don’t want Mayer or Bernardino. I want Roman Anthony, Kyle Teel and David Sandlin to start things. The throw ins can be figured out from there but that’s the beginning of a Lopez trade with Boston.

[Paul Walerius]

On 11/14/2024 at 9:43 AM, Fire Dan Gladden said:

Trading any of the big six (Lopez, Ober, Ryan, Buxton, Lewis, Correa) signals a fire sale and rebuilding effort is coming, but moving your SP1 on a this team would be a pure disaster on so many levels.

Ignoring the on-field ramifications for a minute, this is a horrible perception move.  The new media contract requires fans to be interested to make money.  This would destroy any goodwill left.  Ownership is walking a fine line until this team gets sold.  A move like this could put this team in a downward optics spiral that might take years to recover from.

The only one I think I may consider is Buxton, but I would have to be blown away by offer.    I agree on keeping everyone else.   Pitching wise if it isn't a clear upgrade, it makes 0 sense. Trade Paddack, probably.   SWR, Festa and Matthews I would be very hesitant.  As far as bats I think I would be ok with Vasquez, Castro, Larnach being traded.   Are we going to get a huge return, probably not but that is where I sit.   

Twins were right there with Clevland until Ryan got hurt.  It spiraled after that.   

 

 

 

 

[SteveLV]

That compensation for Lopez ALONE seems light, much less adding Alcala and another prospect, too.

Mayer is a nice prospect, but highest level is AA and, as noted above, has an injury history too.

No way you give up Lopez for that package.

For that package I would want Duran, Teel and someone like Perales as a lottery ticket.  That's assuming the Twins like Teel, too.