Could the Twins Be Contenders For Roki Sasaki, The 23-Year-Old Japanese Phenom?

[Jason Wang]

This year’s hottest pitching free agent has been earmarked for a big-market team, but could Minnesota be a dark horse candidate to sign him?

Image courtesy of © Sam Navarro-Imagn Images

For the second year in a row, the most sought-after pitching talent of the offseason is coming from Japan. One year after Yoshinobu Yamamoto signed the most lucrative contract for a pitcher in MLB history, a younger but equally exciting Japanese talent has captured the attention of baseball fans. 

Roki Sasaki’s talents justify the hype that follows him. His numbers in NPB have been unreal, posting a cumulative 2.10 ERA, 0.89 WHIP, 11.5 K/9, and 5.74 K/BB over 394 ⅓ career innings at just 23 years old. He tossed 17 consecutive perfect innings along the way, an unthinkable feat in today’s game. To make him even more appealing, he’ll follow in Shohei Ohtani's footsteps by choosing the path of a typical international amateur free agent prospect rather than an established superstar. Because he’s being posted before turning 25, the team that signs him will pay him a modest signing bonus from the team’s international bonus pool, followed by league minimum before he hits arbitration and follows the traditional free agent service time restrictions. In other words, for the price of an average MLB contract, one lucky team will get a 6’2” power pitcher with a triple-digit fastball, physics-defying splitter, wicked slider, and full team control. 

This naturally led many to believe he would end up at a big market team, preferably one with a competitive roster and World Series aspirations. To many, he’ll inevitably find himself beside his Samurai Japan teammates Yamamoto and Shohei Ohtani on the Dodgers. Still, new information has suggested that he might actually prefer playing in a sleepier, cozier place like Minnesota.

First of all, the most common reason to sign with a big market team is that they tend to have bigger pockets, but with all of the financial restrictions on his contract, every team will pretty much be limited to the same price. Second, sources stated that Sasaki has strongly disliked the pressure of major media markets, namely the Japanese tabloids that have treated him unfairly for the past two years of his stardom. Third, he has emphasized the importance of joining a competitive roster and being part of a strong developmental program. Thus, any small market team with a knack for getting the best out of their arm talent seems to be a strong fit for his preferences. Sound familiar?

Minnesota is a small market, especially with the falling attendance they’ve seen over the past few years. In 2024, their total attendance was less than two million, which placed them 23rd in MLB, just above the Tigers and Pirates. Naturally, this means that the press is rarely as involved or critical as it is in New York or Boston, meeting Sasaki’s first request. Second, the Twins have done a good job churning out homegrown arm talent. Over the past two years, the Twins have a combined starter FIP of 3.86, fourth in MLB. The trio of Joe Ryan, Bailey Ober, and Simeon Woods Richardson have made major improvements since joining the organization, while bullpen arms like Griffin Jax and Jhoan Durán have shown great promise. Finally, although money won’t be a major factor in his decision, the Twins have $7.5 million in international bonus pool money for 2025, giving them additional financial flexibility during negotiations.

The Twins are far from perfect, and the rest of their roster will need to undergo some solid improvements if they want to have a serious chance of wooing Sasaki and his talents; there’s an outside chance they have exactly what he’s looking for in his first MLB home. 

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[Vanimal46]

Come on. I also have an outside chance of going on a date with Salma Hayek. But it’s as close to 0% as mathematically possible. 

[AceWrigley]

I commented on this in a different thread and received about the same response as Vanimal46 gave above. Not saying Vanimal is necessarily wrong, but the Twins would be desperately foolish to not pursue Mr. Sasaki's services. Acquiring his talents would already make the off season a success, no matter the teams sale outcome and all.

[bean5302]

Not happening. I wouldn't even begin to dream of how this might work out. 

[old nurse]

First question is when is he going to get posted? Second, How much money does each team still have? 

[Mike Sixel]

1 hour ago, Vanimal46 said:

Come on. I also have an outside chance of going on a date with Salma Hayek. But it’s as close to 0% as mathematically possible. 

She's a lot closer to my age, shocked you picked her as your example. 

On topic, I didn't even read this ridiculous post. 

[Mike Sixel]

26 minutes ago, old nurse said:

First question is when is he going to get posted? Second, How much money does each team still have? 

He is subject to the spending limits, due to his age. So, that does matter. However, he knows he's giving up ridiculous money by not waiting two more years, so he's going to want lots of endorsement money. He'll be a dodger

[Vanimal46]

10 minutes ago, Mike Sixel said:

She's a lot closer to my age, shocked you picked her as your example. 

On topic, I didn't even read this ridiculous post. 

She’s still smoking hot at 58 years old! And would be a fascinating date. All of my celebrity crushes are older than me… Beyoncé, Jennifer Anniston, Julie Bowen, Keri Russell. 

[SteveLV]

No.

[Rod Carews Birthday]

2 hours ago, Vanimal46 said:

Come on. I also have an outside chance of going on a date with Salma Hayek. But it’s as close to 0% as mathematically possible. 

So you’re saying there’s a chance!

[Blyleven2011]

no way , 

[Blyleven2011]

Just now, Blyleven2011 said:

 most Japanese players when coming over sign with a west coast team  , I said most , there has been a couple exceptions  ...

If the twins pursue him  , they at least have the chance the usual response  ....

We tried but it just didn't come to fruitation  ...

 

[DJL44]

I agree that he needs the endorsement money from a larger market team to make the financial decision pay off. The Dodgers are in a large market but it's a very team-friendly media market that is currently in a post-championship honeymoon.

I posted a thread elsewhere that the Twins could gain by facilitating the deal. They have a lot of international bonus money and that can be traded. They could trade some of that money to the Dodgers for actual prospects. This would allow the Dodgers to have the highest offer. It would be pretty sweet to trade the ability to spend money for actual baseball talent and not actually have to spend the money to get it.

[glunn]

I believe that it would be fairer if players in this situation were allocated by a lottery that includes teams that are willing to pay the maximum.  In this case, I would expect all teams to join such lottery.

I would give odds that he ends up with the Dodgers.

 

[Coach]

Where he ends up, will most likely depend on our friend Scott Boras.

[CRF]

Just like on "Whose Line is it Anyway"...c'mon down and let's make stuff up!

[dxpavelka]

"a 6’2” power pitcher with a triple-digit fastball, physics-defying splitter, wicked slider, and full team control. "  So, basically, Jhoan Duran.  Which means they'd piss him away in a "high leverage relief" role and when he became eligible for free agency, he'd vanish like a fart in the wind.

[jmlease1]

I just don't believe the rumors that he's interested in going to a smaller market team. Seems like utter BS. Maybe he doesn't end up with the Dodgers, but I'll be he stays West Coast, with Seattle, SD, and SF all very reasonable destinations. (Angels seem too terminally inept)

Sure, Twins should take a flyer and make their best pitch (little to lose by trying I would think?) but this would be the ultimate longshot. We don't exactly have a great track record of bringing in players from Asia and helping them find success, and while you can assign blame to the players (probably correctly) as not being good enough for MLB having some track record of success always helps. We got nothing.

[Otaknam]

My first reaction was “No way”! But, as the writer points out, any signing would come from the international bonus pool, making every team a potential player. We can dream the penurious Twins could actually make a move for this guy, right ?

[Trov]

If he wants a smaller market media that is generally nicer on players MN is a place to go over the larger markets.  My guess he still picks Dodgers because having guys from his country will be easier to transition.  However, you never know.  People make decision for many different reasons.  Since it is not all about the money for him, being he will be capped by teams bonus pools, other reasons will play a major factor. 

[chpettit19]

Should the Twins do their due diligence and make the call? Absolutely. Should they invest any real time beyond that when they're told Roki hadn't even thought about them? Absolutely not. 

It's always worth a call, and the guys subject to international pool money are the only ones the Twins ever have a shot at, but there's no real chance they sign him.

[old nurse]

11 hours ago, Mike Sixel said:

He is subject to the spending limits, due to his age. So, that does matter. However, he knows he's giving up ridiculous money by not waiting two more years, so he's going to want lots of endorsement money. He'll be a dodger

The biggest stage is New York. The problem with going to. The Dodgers is the Dodgers is the huge shadow of Ohtani. 

[LambchoP]

This dude would be exactly what we need in the rotation. Being an amateur, he should actually come pretty cheap, meaning even our broke ass team can afford him. Will it happen? Hell no. He's going to the Dodgers to play with Ohtani and Yamamoto. Maybe someone like the Mets or Padres. The Twins, lol no chance.

[Twins GFP]

Technically yes, as the Twins are one of a few teams that have the ability to offer him more money than most (assuming he posts on 2025 books).  Also because rumors are floating that he would be more comfortable in a smaller market.

Realistically... there is a better chance the Twins sign Soto then Roki.

[Brandon27]

He is going need up in either dodger,yankee,seattle,Red Sox or a met 

[Brandon27]

He is going need up in either dodger,yankee,seattle,Red Sox or a met 

[Doctor Gast]

Thank you so much Jason for making my offseason. It should be illegal for LAD to pick up another Japanese superstar. I wish we still had Meada around to speak in Sasaki's ear about how evil LAD is & how good it is MN. Besides LAD, SD has Yu Darvish, who Sasaki looks up to. We can still hope. Sasaki could add so much to the Twins, not only 6 yrs. of talent but also revenue from added ticket sales also added Japanese revenue in merchandise & TV rights.

[bjorks]

I appreciate the data and the article, but the the answer is bwahahahahahahahahahahahahahaha

The Twins get Sasaki only in my wettest dreams. Our only chance would be a Japanese ownership group!

[Riverbrian]

Once he tastes a Juicy Lucy.

He'll be a Twin.