Nobody Wins: The Jorge Polanco Trade

[Cody Christie]

After a disappointing year in Seattle, the Mariners have declined Jorge Polanco’s team option for 2025. Let’s look back at last winter’s trade to see if either team can be declared the winner.

Image courtesy of © Ken Blaze-USA TODAY Sports

On Friday, the Seattle Mariners announced that they were declining the $12 million club option on Jorge Polanco . His lone season in Seattle was a disappointment after the team added him in hopes of bolstering their line-up. In 118 games, he hit .213/.296/.355 (.651) with a 93 OPS+ and a 1.4 rWAR. It was the first time since 2020 that he posted an OPS+ below 112 and averaged a 116 OPS+ since 2018. It was a disappointing year for Polanco, but there may have been reasons for his struggles. 

His strikeout rate jumped from 25.7% in his final year with Minnesota to 29.2% in his lone season with Seattle. Eno Sarris mentioned that the issues with the Mariner’s batting eye have been “well documented.” He also said he was “striking out more like he normally does late in the season.” This positive sign could indicate Polanco is an above-league-average bat in 2025 if he doesn’t play regularly in Seattle. Polanco also played through knee issues this season and is slated to undergo off-season surgery to repair the patellar tendon in his left knee. Twins fans may remember that the same knee caused him to miss the end of the 2022 season and the beginning of the 2023 campaign. 

The Mariners acquired Polanco from the Twins last winter in a trade that netted the organization two big-league pitchers (Justin Topa and Anthony DeSclafani) and two prospects (Gabriel Gonzalez and Darren Bowen). Topa and DeSclafani were expected to help the big-league roster last season, but injuries prevented them from impacting the team. DeSclafani never appeared for the Twins after having surgery to repair the flexor tendon in his right arm. Topa suffered a knee injury in spring training and was limited to three appearances with the Twins. He is arbitration-eligible this winter, so there is still an opportunity for him to impact the roster moving forward. 

Gonzalez was viewed as a borderline top-100 prospect when the Twins acquired him. He spent last season as a 20-year-old at Cedar Rapids, where he was over two years younger than the average age of the competition. In 81 games, he hit .255/.326/.381 (.707) with 19 doubles, five home runs, and a 49-to-23 strikeout-to-walk ratio. He is no longer viewed as a top-100 prospect, but he is still young and has time to develop in the Twins system. Next year will be significant for him as he is projected to spend the majority of the season at Double-A, a level where prospects can sink or swim. 

Seattle drafted Bowen in the 13th round of the 2022 MLB out of college. He spent the entire 2024 season in Cedar Rapids, where he was slightly old for the level. His on-field performance was inconsistent in his first year in the organization. In 72 2/3 innings, he posted a 6.07 ERA with a 1.42 WHIP and 8.8 K/9. Bowen allowed three earned runs or more in 11 of his 18 appearances, and his ten losses were twice as many as any other Cedar Rapids pitcher. Perhaps the Twins can continue to alter some of his mechanics with more time in the organization, or a path to a bullpen role might help with his consistency. 

Baseball Trade Values posted an interesting assessment of the Polanco trade after Seattle declined his option. At the time of the trade, their trade model rejected the deal because of how much the Mariners were overpaying for Polanco. He was expected to provide Seattle with $9.4 million in surplus value over two seasons, but he provided negative value in one season. Things have failed to go well for the Twins either, but Minnesota is relying on Gonalez to provide value at the big-league level. Topa is expected to make $1.3 million in arbitration next season, so there is no guarantee that the Twins will keep him around at that price point. 

Polanco is heading to free agency for the first time in his career, and some Twins fans will call for the team to bring back the veteran infielder. As mentioned above, he is a strong contender to be a bounce-back candidate next season, but the Twins have little payroll flexibility. Minnesota is also well aware of his knee issues, and health will continue to be a question mark for Polanco throughout the remainder of his professional career. A reunion would be nice, but it seems unlikely. 

From Seattle’s perspective, the trade with the Twins looks like a big swing and a miss. Polanco underperformed and was done after one season. Minnesota has some hope of gaining value from other players involved in the trade, but it might be years before the Twins know the full value gained or lost on their end of the trade. 

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Which team won this trade? Does a reunion with Polanco make sense for both parties? Leave a COMMENT and start the discussion.

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[LewFordLives]

"Nobody Wins"...... pretty much sums it up.

[Parfigliano]

1 minute ago, LewFordLives said:

"Nobody Wins"...... pretty much sums it up.

TC  still has a chance to "win" if Topa signs and has a good year or Gonzalez makes MLB and blooms.

In Polanco SEA got nothing.

[Doctor Gast]

Yeah, it was a lose/ lose/ lose. SEA lost, MN lost but mainly Polanco lost. Being removed from where his heart was to a nightmare had to be torture. MN didn't get anything to help us last season, if they had flipped Gonzales & Topa we would have gotten something out of it but alas they didn't & the longer they hold onto Gonzales we'd get nothing.

I'm in the camp to bring back Polanco he'd be a great comeback player if the price is right. I love to watch MLB highlights with Polanco making that great play at 2B. We missed his leadership and clutch hits. We need a starting full-time 2B; Julien doesn't cut it. He'd also be great at 1B.

[Parfigliano]

Goggled the SEA batters eye theory.  Interesting.  First I heard about it.  I need to get away from this board and out in the world more.😁

[DJL44]

11 minutes ago, Doctor Gast said:

I love to watch MLB highlights with Polanco making that great play at 2B.

You'll have to find some from a few years ago. According to statcast, Polanco was in the 2nd percentile for range (98% of infielders rated better than him) and 8th percentile for throwing arm (he only throws 75 MPH now). It's pretty clear he's no longer able to play 2B.

Jorge Polanco Stats: Statcast, Visuals & Advanced Metrics | baseballsavant.com

[DJL44]

The Twins won the trade by saving the cash they would have otherwise paid Polanco. They used that money to sign Carlos Santana for one season which puts them way ahead of the Mariners on this trade.

[LambchoP]

Looks like Polanco is done for. Maybe he bounces back with a rebuild team, but his defense has plummeted with the knee Injuries. If Topa pitches we'll this year, and if Gonzalez and Bowen ever amount to anything, or if we can get something decent in a trade for them, I'd say we won the trade.

[Rod Carews Birthday]

33 minutes ago, DJL44 said:

The Twins won the trade by saving the cash they would have otherwise paid Polanco. They used that money to sign Carlos Santana for one season which puts them way ahead of the Mariners on this trade.

I think this is pretty accurate.  The parts that were directly in the trade didn’t do anything for anybody, with the caveat that it’s possible the Twins could gain a little something out of it yet.  However, without the money saved there would likely have been no Carlos Santana, and I’m pretty certain life without Santana would have been even uglier than it was with him.  

[old nurse]

With the seasons the MLB players had one would say the Twins lost nothing by trading a 2b. The team gained medical bills for pitchers. That should surprise anybody given the player histories. I think the trade was part of the reason they went in a different direction with Levine, but it took a while to figure out how to not make it look like a negative he was removed. Maybe in that respect then the Twins won the trade. 

[tony&rodney]

1 hour ago, DJL44 said:

The Twins won the trade by saving the cash they would have otherwise paid Polanco. They used that money to sign Carlos Santana for one season which puts them way ahead of the Mariners on this trade.

Except that if Polanco stays the Twins do not keep Farmer or pay DeSclafani and Topa. The real loss was Falvey's failure to add players to acquire a usable player.

[DJL44]

1 hour ago, tony&rodney said:

Except that if Polanco stays the Twins do not keep Farmer or pay DeSclafani and Topa. The real loss was Falvey's failure to add players to acquire a usable player.

In hindsight, Falvey should have gone for more prospects and less MLB ready help.

[tony&rodney]

18 minutes ago, DJL44 said:

In hindsight, Falvey should have gone for more prospects and less MLB ready help.

I work on not looking back too much but I believe that last offseason was the worst work of the Falvey tenure.

[Whitey333]

Last off season was a big failure for Falvey.  Let's consider that in the 8 years he's been in control the Twins have had 1 90+  win season.  I believe 1 playoff series win.  They have missed the playoffs in 3 of the past 4 seasons.  Two of them in catastrophic (choking) style.  Polanco would be better than what we have now.  Not wanting to sign an injured player or injury history player?  Falvey has done it many times.  I don't really think the Twins will resign Polanco.  They are looking to manage payroll. With Correa, Buxton, and Lopez going to take up around 75 mill of a 130 million dollar payroll it's going to be difficult.  Obviously salary will need to be dumped again.  

[Schmoeman5]

3 hours ago, LambchoP said:

Looks like Polanco is done for. Maybe he bounces back with a rebuild team, but his defense has plummeted with the knee Injuries. If Topa pitches we'll this year, and if Gonzalez and Bowen ever amount to anything, or if we can get something decent in a trade for them, I'd say we won the trade.

Lot of " ifs" in there

[Jocko87]

10 minutes ago, tony&rodney said:

I work on not looking back too much but I believe that last offseason was the worst work of the Falvey tenure.

I would say now that more details of what he was dealing with are available, it’s some of his best work.  The franchise is in good baseball hands. 

This trade is right at the top of the list of smashing success.  I said in the first few minutes of the news breaking that if you told me they got 4 players and money for Polo, I don’t even need to know the names of the players for it to be a win. 

Now that we know Polo was near the edge of the cliff, it’s even more amazing.  

Topa alone could return enough value with one decent bullpen season to make it a smashing win that even TwinsDaily could recognize.

I just do not understand the Minnesota Mindset™️ that fights so hard to find a way to see everything in the most negative possible way.  And I say that as a pedigreed Norwegian bachelor farmer (*not an actual farmer though).  Just because we have a keyboard, doesn’t mean we need to write an article.  

[tony&rodney]

2 minutes ago, Jocko87 said:

I would say now that more details of what he was dealing with are available, it’s some of his best work.  The franchise is in good baseball hands. 

This trade is right at the top of the list of smashing success.  I said in the first few minutes of the news breaking that if you told me they got 4 players and money for Polo, I don’t even need to know the names of the players for it to be a win. 

Now that we know Polo was near the edge of the cliff, it’s even more amazing.  

Topa alone could return enough value with one decent bullpen season to make it a smashing win that even TwinsDaily could recognize.

I just do not understand the Minnesota Mindset™️ that fights so hard to find a way to see everything in the most negative possible way.  And I say that as a pedigreed Norwegian bachelor farmer (*not an actual farmer though).  Just because we have a keyboard, doesn’t mean we need to write an article.  

I try to see most everything in life in a positive way. We both know that looking back is pointless. I accept that you believed Polanco was worthless. However, Seattle really wanted Polanco. Falvey could have added Julien and Paddack or others (Varland?) to pry away Bryce Miller. I have defended Julien more than anyone on Twins Daily but he has never been a complete player and had a strong rookie campaign making him a useful player to trade. The fact is that Falvey has struggled to identify talent in trades. His trade for Trevor Richards was inconsequential but also left a guy like A. J. Puk go elsewhere. Of course people were disappointed by a reduction in payroll but it is noteworthy that last offseason there really wasn't any players that Falvey would have signed. Topa may still contribute but it is just as likely that Polanco has a better year. Don't bet on either. The trade was inconsequential but I would contend there were options. Whatever. Will Julien be the starting second baseman this coming year?

[bean5302]

The trade needs to be graded based on the needs of the team, and the outcome. For the Twins, the trade was a F on addressing the needs. They'd have been much better off declining Polanco's option than exercising it and trading him. This was the result of Falvey being too slow on addressing the need or overplaying his hand. He'd done this a couple years in a row now. For the Mariners, it was an A in regard to needs. They offset a lot of the payroll by moving a reliever with no track record, and a pitcher they didn't want on the roster to the Twins while simultaneously acquiring a 2B who projected as above average.

In terms of outcomes, the Twins used the savings to sign Carlos Santana, which gives them an A on productivity, but it wasn't the position they really needed to fill (CF/SP/DH) so a C, IMHO. The Mariners got a injury hampered Polanco who struggled to AAA replacement level production, but they avoided significant hit to their payroll by being able to decline his option. D.

Overall, I'd grade the trade as a C for the Mariners and a D for the Twins. The Mariners didn't have to pay Desclafani and Topa's $5MM in salary for 0 WAR, and they weren't on the hook for Polanco past 2024. 

The trade didn't turn out as a win-win, but it wasn't the worst trade that could have happened for either team.

[DJL44]

56 minutes ago, bean5302 said:

They'd have been much better off declining Polanco's option than exercising it and trading him.

I don't get this. The only thing that cost them anything was the $5M they paid DeSclafani to do nothing. Topa was paid $1.25M (which is nothing) and the prospects are free. If I can get free prospects by exercising an option and trading a player I would do it every time rather than declining the option.

[Jocko87]

59 minutes ago, tony&rodney said:

I try to see most everything in life in a positive way. We both know that looking back is pointless. I accept that you believed Polanco was worthless. However, Seattle really wanted Polanco. Falvey could have added Julien and Paddack or others (Varland?) to pry away Bryce Miller. I have defended Julien more than anyone on Twins Daily but he has never been a complete player and had a strong rookie campaign making him a useful player to trade. The fact is that Falvey has struggled to identify talent in trades. His trade for Trevor Richards was inconsequential but also left a guy like A. J. Puk go elsewhere. Of course people were disappointed by a reduction in payroll but it is noteworthy that last offseason there really wasn't any players that Falvey would have signed. Topa may still contribute but it is just as likely that Polanco has a better year. Don't bet on either. The trade was inconsequential but I would contend there were options. Whatever. Will Julien be the starting second baseman this coming year?

Where did I say anything that would lead you to believe I thought Polo was worthless?  

I do believe that the returns of this trade far exceeded his value.  

This isn’t a referendum on Falveys ability to scout returns.  There are two sides to a trade, after all.  It’s about the ability to extract excess value for the value sent.  In this case it’s a clear win. 

If you think the return is somehow subpar, it’s a recognition that the Mariners also have eyes, not that Falvey somehow screwed up. You have absolutely no basis to say he should have added so and so and got an ace pitcher.  This isn’t fantasy baseball.  

[Schmoeman5]

6 hours ago, Doctor Gast said:

Yeah, it was a lose/ lose/ lose. SEA lost, MN lost but mainly Polanco lost. Being removed from where his heart was to a nightmare had to be torture. MN didn't get anything to help us last season, if they had flipped Gonzales & Topa we would have gotten something out of it but alas they didn't & the longer they hold onto Gonzales we'd get nothing.

I'm in the camp to bring back Polanco he'd be a great comeback player if the price is right. I love to watch MLB highlights with Polanco making that great play at 2B. We missed his leadership and clutch hits. We need a starting full-time 2B; Julien doesn't cut it. 

Yeah. It was his broken heart and anguish that caused his drop in production this year. He cried every time he deposited that check. I like Polanco. Injuries over the past few seasons is the biggest culprit in his decline. Not longing for Minnesota.

[tony&rodney]

1 hour ago, Jocko87 said:

Where did I say anything that would lead you to believe I thought Polo was worthless?  

I do believe that the returns of this trade far exceeded his value.  

This isn’t a referendum on Falveys ability to scout returns.  There are two sides to a trade, after all.  It’s about the ability to extract excess value for the value sent.  In this case it’s a clear win. 

If you think the return is somehow subpar, it’s a recognition that the Mariners also have eyes, not that Falvey somehow screwed up. You have absolutely no basis to say he should have added so and so and got an ace pitcher.  This isn’t fantasy baseball.  

Four players and money is a win no matter who the players are sounds like a judgement to me. 

Either way, we totally disagree which is fine -no hard feelings .... it's in the past and I shouldn't even have responded.

[CRF]

A better way to phrase it is...which team lost less or lost the least? I think we lost the least on the trade. Especially now since they dumped Polanco.  

[harmony55]

Last offseason at least one Seattle fan thought Jorge Polanco might not represent an upgrade at second base:

 

[IndianaTwin]

7 hours ago, DJL44 said:

The Twins won the trade by saving the cash they would have otherwise paid Polanco. They used that money to sign Carlos Santana for one season which puts them way ahead of the Mariners on this trade.

Which is an example of how it can be difficult to grade any transaction in isolation. There is almost always a domino effect. 

[stringer bell]

7 hours ago, Parfigliano said:

TC  still has a chance to "win" if Topa signs and has a good year or Gonzalez makes MLB and blooms.

In Polanco SEA got nothing.

Topa is under team control for the coming season. If the Twins tender him a contract, he is "signed". While it is not likely Topa will pitch a full season in 2025, he could well give them quality innings for at least half of the season. 

[bean5302]

2 hours ago, DJL44 said:

I don't get this. The only thing that cost them anything was the $5M they paid DeSclafani to do nothing. Topa was paid $1.25M (which is nothing) and the prospects are free. If I can get free prospects by exercising an option and trading a player I would do it every time rather than declining the option.

If the Twins just declined the option on Polanco, they're in exactly the same spot, but with $5.25MM more to spend. If you like Gonzalez, that's fine, but he wasn't going to help fill any of the holes the Twins had in 2024.

[tarheeltwinsfan]

2 hours ago, DJL44 said:

I don't get this. The only thing that cost them anything was the $5M they paid DeSclafani to do nothing. Topa was paid $1.25M (which is nothing) and the prospects are free. If I can get free prospects by exercising an option and trading a player I would do it every time rather than declining the option.

I thought DeSclafani had a $12,000,000 contract for 2024.

[tarheeltwinsfan]

3 hours ago, DJL44 said:

I don't get this. The only thing that cost them anything was the $5M they paid DeSclafani to do nothing. Topa was paid $1.25M (which is nothing) and the prospects are free. If I can get free prospects by exercising an option and trading a player I would do it every time rather than declining the option.

How much was DeSclafani's 2024 contract? 

[ashbury]

Seattle was looking to shore up a weakness, but spent nearly nothing in acquiring something.  Kind of a waste of effort but net-net is just a zero.

Minnesota gave up an asset that at the time still had some trade value, and at the moment it looks like they got nothing. - two major league arms that wound up injured for all but a handful of innings, and two prospects who both took giant steps backward in 2024 - if Bowen doesn't turn it around in 2025 he'll be out of baseball, while Gonzalez will likely continue to get chances but even at age 20 a stumble at high-A makes his ever being a star suddenly pretty much a longshot.  Unless things change, Minnesota got a net negative return, and thus came out behind on the trade.  A trade I was in favor of in principle, especially for the potential of salary savings, but not for these pieces.  Talent evaluation for Minnesota continues to be a hit or miss affair, in a market niche where they need to be more hit and less miss.