Offseason Status Update: The Long Winter Begins

[Nick Nelson]

The snow began to fall in Minneapolis on Thursday morning, right on cue after the World Series concluded Wednesday night to signal the official start of the offseason. For the Twins, this figures to be a long, slow winter, but not without intrigue.

Let's set the stage as the offseason gets underway.

Image courtesy of Charles LeClaire, John Hefti-Imagn Images

I wish I could set an exciting tone for this offseason. I really do. I wish I felt confident that big, splashy moves were ahead; an emphatic statement of commitment from the franchise to righting the ship in the wake an embarrassing collapse. But I don't.

At a macro level, major change is certainly afoot for the Twins, who are officially up for sale as the Pohlad family actively explores suitors. In terms of roster action this winter, however, a relative adherence to the status quo may be the best we can realistically hope for, as the front office navigates challenging financial constraints.

There have been no indications that a rise in spending is on the way -- only lukewarm unsourced assurances that payroll won't drop any further following last year's $30 million slash. (We'll see.) Ownership has made clear that they are more concerned about maintaining an attractive bottom line than making winning a priority. If that was the case last year, coming off a long-awaited postseason breakthrough, I'm not sure why it would change this year.

Nonetheless, things are going to happen this offseason. We might get news of a sale, or at the very least, that specter will loom over everything. The hitting staff needs to be built out around new hire Matt Borgschulte. And one way or another, the front office needs to figure out some gaps on this roster.

Much like my weekly recap columns during the season, these sporadic "offseason status updates" are intended to catch you up in short order on the latest news you need to know, for those not keeping up with the day-to-day minutiae of MLB's offseason. Now that the World Series is officially in the rearview mirror, and significant developments are already beginning to take place, here's your stage-setting Twins offseason update.

Alex Kirilloff Announces His Retirement at Age 26
The Twins offseason opened up with a gut-punch, as the first baseman shared news on Thursday morning of his decision to step away from the game. "In my nine professional seasons, I’ve encountered numerous injuries, which led me to search for new ways to overcome the pain," Kirilloff wrote. "These challenges have taken a toll on me mentally and physically; over time, I’ve realized that my passion for playing the game has shifted."

 

One of the most consequential decisions the Twins were facing this winter, from my view, was whether or not they could trust Kirilloff's health, knowing that his talent was too good to give up on if he had any chance of rebounding physically from this latest setback. Now, he has taken that decision out of their hands, bringing a sad end to one of the more promising careers in recent memory.

You can learn more about the back injury that ultimately spelled the end of Kirilloff's career in Lucas Seehafer's writeup.

Manuel Margot and Kyle Farmer's 2025 Options Declined
This was a far less shocking development. Moving on from the underwhelming Margot, who had a $12 million club option, was a no-brainer, especially since the Twins aren't on the hook for his $2 million buyout. The same goes for Farmer, who would've made over $6 million again after posting an OPS+ of 82.

 

While expected and well warranted, the departures of Margot and Farmer open up more clear holes on next year's roster alongside first base. That's where things start to get hairy. 

Projecting the 2025 Roster and Payroll
With Kirilloff and Margot out of the picture, we have a little more clarity around the outlook for next year's roster as it currently stands. Max Kepler, Carlos Santana and Caleb Thielbar will all hit the free agent market when it opens up next week. Farmer and Margot are out after having their 2025 options declined. Jorge Alcala also has a team option ($1.5 million), which I'd expect but the Twins activate but that's no guarantee.

Based on these and a few other arbitration-related assumptions, here's how the 2025 roster currently projects:

In overviewing this roster makeup, a few things become immediately apparent. They need a first baseman. Jose Miranda is not an option as primary starter, or shouldn't be. I'm not sure who else would even conceivably play there other than, like, Yunior Severino. The Twins also desperately need to bolster their bench, ideally with higher-performing versions of Farmer and Margot. 

At the same time, if the front office is indeed up against a $130 million budget, they have less than no money to address these needs. By my (inexact) calculations, the Twins are about $4 million in the red for 2025 before making any moves. So unfortunately, one of the big storylines heading into the offseason will be: How can they create a modicum of flexibility?

A salary dump at the Carlos Correa, Pablo Lopez or Byron Buxton level is too grim for me to presently contemplate. So instead we turn out attention to the players who would be much less painful to lose.

Can the Twins Find Takers for Chris Paddack or Christian Vazquez?
When you look at the roster layout above, these names stand out most as the ones the Twins could most comfortably part ways with to unlock salary relief. Both were named by MLB Trade Rumors among top candidates to move this offseason. 

I have no doubt the Twins will be motivated to deal both. That extra $17 million could go a long way toward patching up some of the aforementioned needs, and you're not losing much if at all by "downgrading" from an injury-plagued Paddack to David Festa, or a 34-year-old Vazquez to Jair Camargo. 

Then again, I just legitimately wonder if there's going to be a real market for either one of these players. Their price tags aren't huge, and there are specific reasons why each could be valued (Paddack's upside, Vazquez's reliability), but they're coming off bad years with question marks attached. I could see those salaries being scrutinized heavily at a time where teams across MLB might be looking to scale back spending.

If they're going to shop these two, the Twins will be compelled to act fast so they can free up that money to spend elsewhere before desired targets come off the board. 

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I don't know that it'll be an exciting offseason, but I do believe it'll be an intriguing one as Derek Falvey confronts these high-stakes challenges and navigates hot stove season without his right-hand man Thad Levine for the first time. Make sure you stay tuned into Twins Daily for coverage and analysis of everything as it happens. It's also a perfect time to sign up as a Caretaker, supporting our community's work and gaining access to premium Offseason Handbook content.

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[mikelink45]

I have no expectations. This team has made some high-level decisions that are hard to understand, but even more difficult to deal with. With. Budget constraints just doesn't fit with Major League baseball. I'm not sure they realize that this is not a McDonald's franchise and they're playing in the big leagues with a lot of rich people who are not afraid to spend their money. Take a look at San Diego and the Mets.

So what will they do. It's tough to think about free agency and them signing anybody of significance. And on the trade front as you pointed out the two players that are prominent as trade bait are stained by their performance last year.   Can we honestly see the team paying part of the salary of a player no longer on the team? This leads to a lot of low-level moves like we saw last year. Those aren't the things that lead to the world series.   

[LambchoP]

I'm expecting a pretty boring, bargain bin type off-season. They do need a first baseman, they need to figure out who is going to start at second base, we need a backup center fielder/4rth outfielder, we could use a veteran starter and we need 2 or 3 relief pitchers, at least one of them being a lefty. All of this with zero money to spend. Lol, good luck. My guess is we go into the season relying on lots of rookies and a few prospects that will be called up and relyed upon way sooner than they are ready for 

[Rod Carews Birthday]

I believe you’ve pegged the off season well.  I won’t like it, but I wonder if the easiest trade to make would be to trade Pablo Lopez.  I don’t think I like it either, but Ober was essentially just as good last year and Ryan was maybe a little better but not as reliable due to injury — AND they don’t cost much.  If my math is correct, all three are controlled for three more years, which means they all come up at once for free agency.  IF you could trade Lopez for a young rotation piece that you like and/or a first baseman/catcher, you have freed up $20+M and maybe not weakened the team as much as you think, PLUS you have some money to spend in other areas.  

I know, it seems crazy, and I don’t really want to see it happen, but it might be the solution to both financial issues and to solidifying either the catcher position or first base.  It just might make too much sense not to do it. 

[nicksaviking]

I'm not trying to be a Debbie Downer, mostly because my enthusiasm for next season isn't high regardless of the payroll, but if the Twins are able to move Vazquez and Paddock, I'm not sure that the savings will be re-invested back into the payroll.

The Twins announced the payroll won't be going down this year BEFORE both the Rangers and Cardinals, two teams who historically spend over expectations said they are dropping payroll, and it's thought that many other teams will do the same. To me, that sounds like a green light for Joe Pohlad to renege on his previous statement and also cut back. "Well, we said it wouldn't be lower, but we didn't expect things to change so quickly. Look at what all the other teams are doing."

[DJL44]

Quote

Jose Miranda is not an option as primary starter, or shouldn't be.

He's a much more legitimate option as a starter at 1B than Julien is at second base. They need an outfielder to move Castro to 2B more than they need to replace Miranda.

I would ask Texas to swap Paddack for Leody Tavares. That saves $3M and boosts the outfield defense considerably. Tavares is just entering into what should be his prime as a hitter.

[bean5302]

24 minutes ago, DJL44 said:

He's a much more legitimate option as a starter at 1B than Julien is at second base...

Right? What is it with this site's writers absolutely hating Jose Miranda? Did he break into their houses and steal the last beer out of their fridges or something?

[jmlease1]

I'm curious: do we know that the Twins count the Dobnak contract against their self-imposed payroll limitations? Do they only count the 26-man roster, do they count the whole 40-man roster, are they counting the signing bonuses for the drafted players against the MLB "payroll"?

Just how cheap are the cheap-ass Pohlads? :P

I'm not as down on Miranda as a potential 1B than others: he seems like a guy who can improve defensively there, and Julien is another player who could (maybe should?) get time there, but there does seem to be some need for another bat on this roster. not sure we'll get one without dealing Castro, Vazquez, or Paddack. Buxton and Correa aren't getting traded, no matter how much some people want their contracts and injury histories shot into the sun. I would hope after struggling mightily to find reliable top of the rotation starting pitching we wouldn't move Pablo, who is everything we could ask for in a staff ace: talented, effective, smart AF, great leader & mentor, seems like an incredibly nice dude and good person, and with a reasonable contract for someone of that ability.

I would move either Paddack or Vazquez (or both), if I thought the ownership wouldn't just pocket the savings. (My trust levels are low after the recent debacles and the Pohlads selling the team make me even more skeptical that they wouldn't be willing to grab an additional $5-10M in savings to line their pockets if it looks like the sale isn't going to get completed quickly).

Paddack is acceptable as a 5th starter, but there's very limited upside, IMHO. With SWR having done well in 2024, and Festa, Matthews, Lewis, Raya, Adams, Morris, and Nowlin waiting in the wings (not to mention CJ Culpepper and Ohl lurking a little further back) I'm more willing to roll with the young guys.

Vazquez is still a quality defender, but he's probably no longer a superior one and since age is undefeated he could slip fast. he's also unlikely at 34 to have any kind of a renaissance as a hitter: he's got 2+ seasons now of being this kind of bad hitter (low average, low walks, no power). the defense is good enough to be a reasonable backup, especially with so few catchers who can hit in MLB, but if someone will take him I would move on this.

If we moved both Paddack and Vazquez (and don't have to count Dobnak's contract against the overall self-imposed payroll limit, that would free up $15M to use on a LH reliever and a 1B/OF/DH bat. Might put us in a pretty solid position, if we don't botch the FA signings.

[DJL44]

6 minutes ago, bean5302 said:

Right? What is it with this site's writers absolutely hating Jose Miranda? Did he break into their houses and steal the last beer out of their fridges or something?

Miranda basically repeated his debut 2022 season offensively and improved his defense at 1B. He's as close to a lock as any baseball player is to repeat again. Expect a 110-115 OPS+ and average defense at 1B for the league minimum salary.

[IndianaTwin]

Thanks, @Nick Nelson, for this snapshot, which will be helpful to see from time to time. 

Since this is projected and not official (though I don't have any disagreements with your list), would it also be possible to add two lines at the bottom, one with "Other Pitchers on the 40-man: ______" and "Other Hitters on the 40-man: _________"? (Or even break the pitchers into starters and relievers.)

For those of us who don't have the roster situation committed to memory, it would be nice to be reminded that the extra hitters available are Camargo, Keirsey, Severino, ERod, etc.

Thanks for your consideration.

 

[gmwannabe]

Castro for Rushing saves 6.5 million to aquire Mountcastle for 1st base (for Matthew's or Raya) and nets a top MLB ready catcher, solidifying 2 positions of need. Now I trade Lopez to the Bosox for center fielder Duran and move Buxton to LF and trade Vasquez to the Astros for 5 million cash saving 5 million. Now you have 25 million to spend on pitching if the Pohlads don't pocket it!

 

[tony&rodney]

1 hour ago, Rod Carews Birthday said:

I believe you’ve pegged the off season well.  I won’t like it, but I wonder if the easiest trade to make would be to trade Pablo Lopez.  I don’t think I like it either, but Ober was essentially just as good last year and Ryan was maybe a little better but not as reliable due to injury — AND they don’t cost much.  If my math is correct, all three are controlled for three more years, which means they all come up at once for free agency.  IF you could trade Lopez for a young rotation piece that you like and/or a first baseman/catcher, you have freed up $20+M and maybe not weakened the team as much as you think, PLUS you have some money to spend in other areas.  

I know, it seems crazy, and I don’t really want to see it happen, but it might be the solution to both financial issues and to solidifying either the catcher position or first base.  It just might make too much sense not to do it. 

All options should be on the table. Pablo Lopez has pitched 194.0 and 185.1 innings the last two years. I would think that every team in baseball covets a pitcher like Lopez. Nobody is going to confuse him with Gerrit Cole or Tarik Skubal but the efficiency and steady performance really is noteworthy. Still, Pablo can be traded for the right return. The team needs to have some changes and Falvey can't just wait out the offseason hoping for a miracle.

Unlike some others, I don't see first base as a need. I feel like Royce Lewis should be able to handle the bag decently and if not Lewis, Jose Miranda is a good baseball player. I'm more concerned about finding someone who plays an excellent third base and a backup shortstop. Willi Castro was stretched way too far last season.

[bean5302]

38 minutes ago, jmlease1 said:

I'm curious: do we know that the Twins count the Dobnak contract against their self-imposed payroll limitations? Do they only count the 26-man roster, do they count the whole 40-man roster, are they counting the signing bonuses for the drafted players against the MLB "payroll"?...

Yes. Dobnak would probably to be considered part of the "MLB" payroll because he's under a guaranteed contract. It's dead money.

The maximum 26 man payroll is probably related to the front office payroll, MiLB salaries, international draft money, etc. 

[LyleCole]

I strongly believe that the Twins need to make space on the roster and offensive depth chart for Emmanuel Rodriguez.  The time is not for him and it isn't as if he is an 18 year old kid.   He will be 22 years old at the start of the season.  

I think Larnach would be the extra man out and he might have some trade value but then they might want to keep him around for the inevitable injury to Buxton, Correa, or Lewis.

OF   Rodriguez-Buxton-Wallner  (Castro)

INF  Miranda-Julien/Castro-Correa-Lee

C  Jeffers

DH  Royce Lewis

 

4th OF (if not traded)  Trevor Larnach

UT-Martin

[tony&rodney]

6 minutes ago, gmwannabe said:

Castro for Rushing saves 6.5 million to aquire Mountcastle for 1st base (for Matthew's or Raya) and nets a top MLB ready catcher, solidifying 2 positions of need. Now I trade Lopez to the Bosox for center fielder Duran and move Buxton to LF and trade Vasquez to the Astros for 5 million cash saving 5 million. Now you have 25 million to spend on pitching if the Pohlads don't pocket it!

 

I like to hear all these ideas. Curious why LAD would want Willi Castro? I like Mountcastle but Miranda and/or Lewis can play first base. The Lopez-Duran idea would get press, for sure. Interesting. Wonder how Red Sox fans would see it?

[bean5302]

6 minutes ago, gmwannabe said:

Castro for Rushing saves 6.5 million to aquire Mountcastle for 1st base (for Matthew's or Raya) and nets a top MLB ready catcher, solidifying 2 positions of need. Now I trade Lopez to the Bosox for center fielder Duran and move Buxton to LF and trade Vasquez to the Astros for 5 million cash saving 5 million. Now you have 25 million to spend on pitching if the Pohlads don't pocket it!

 

Castro isn't remotely close to enough for Rushing. Castro is going to cost $6MM. His market value is 3yrs $28MM so an AAV of roughly $10MM. He's under control for just one year, so his value is going to be like $5MM surplus. Enough for like a #10 org prospect, not a what would normally be a #1-2 org prospect for most teams. Rushing is more comparable to Emmanuel Rodriguez.

[CRF]

It'll be another off season of dumpster diving and bargain bin hunting. Despite what the team is saying about payroll, I wouldn't be shocked if they look to shed even more salary than the guys we expect to see shopped or dropped. This stuff is getting real old. 

[Nick Nelson]

56 minutes ago, bean5302 said:

Right? What is it with this site's writers absolutely hating Jose Miranda? Did he break into their houses and steal the last beer out of their fridges or something?

Is it considered some sort of radical position that Miranda is a terrible first baseman? I'm actually kind of blown away by the idea that anyone would be comfortable with him as starter 1A there next year. It seems pretty clear to me the Twins soured on him big-time at the position. 

[DJL44]

15 minutes ago, IndianaTwin said:

Thanks, @Nick Nelson, for this snapshot, which will be helpful to see from time to time. 

Since this is projected and not official (though I don't have any disagreements with your list), would it also be possible to add two lines at the bottom, one with "Other Pitchers on the 40-man: ______" and "Other Hitters on the 40-man: _________"? (Or even break the pitchers into starters and relievers.)

For those of us who don't have the roster situation committed to memory, it would be nice to be reminded that the extra hitters available are Camargo, Keirsey, Severino, ERod, etc.

Thanks for your consideration.

Just go here:

2025 Minnesota Twins Depth Chart | RosterResource | FanGraphs Baseball

[bean5302]

41 minutes ago, DJL44 said:

Miranda basically repeated his debut 2022 season offensively and improved his defense at 1B. He's as close to a lock as any baseball player is to repeat again. Expect a 110-115 OPS+ and average defense at 1B for the league minimum salary.

I think that's pretty fair, and right about where I expected him to be before 2024 began. A solid 2 WAR every day player until he gets into year 2-3 of arbitration when it gets more likely for him to be traded away.

[DJL44]

1 minute ago, Nick Nelson said:

Is it considered some sort of radical position that Miranda is a terrible first baseman? I'm actually kind of blown away by the idea that anyone would be comfortable with him as starter 1A there next year. It seems pretty clear to me the Twins soured on him big-time at the position. 

He was bad defensively at 1B in 2022 but his numbers in 2024 are just fine. He's still bad at 3B.

[IndianaTwin]

5 minutes ago, DJL44 said:

Just go here:

2025 Minnesota Twins Depth Chart | RosterResource | FanGraphs Baseball

For more detail, yes, but the snapshot Nick provides is helpful as well. 

[tony&rodney]

The best position for Larnach and Miranda is DH. Either one is reasonable to use on "some" occasions in the field. Move Lewis to first base. Maybe he works out best at that position. Royce is pretty buff/stiff for 2B/SS/3B and his strong arm has a mind of its own. 

[bean5302]

11 minutes ago, Nick Nelson said:

Is it considered some sort of radical position that Miranda is a terrible first baseman? I'm actually kind of blown away by the idea that anyone would be comfortable with him as starter 1A there next year. It seems pretty clear to me the Twins soured on him big-time at the position. 

I think it is pretty radical to assume Miranda wouldn't be capable as an every day first baseman.

He's barely played the position last year because of Carlos Santana being a solid fielding, veteran, durable 1B who switch hits. Miranda had a +3.3 UZR/150 at 1B in 2022. Miranda was better than average with fielding percentage, and Miranda was above average in range by UZR, which uses the exact same data table as DRS. The ding against Miranda at 1B was in "double play rate."

OAA/DRS are totally unstable even in full year to year

Looking at 2024, in his 100 inning sample size, Miranda graded as +6.7 in UZR/150, neutral in OAA and neutral in DRS. Miranda has a good glove, he just doesn't have the arm to play 3B. There's no reason to suspect he won't be at least average at 1B, IMHO.

[Nick Nelson]

15 minutes ago, DJL44 said:

He was bad defensively at 1B in 2022 but his numbers in 2024 are just fine. He's still bad at 3B.

He made 12 starts there this year. I don't think that's a meaningful sample to analyze. He also made zero starts there in 2023, when their primary starter was Donovan Solano, which says a lot to me about how the Twins view him. I don't think people in the org would tell you they feel confident in Miranda's glove at 1B, outside of the occasional spot start or maybe as the RH in a platoon role. 

[DJL44]

7 minutes ago, Nick Nelson said:

He also made zero starts there in 2023, when their primary starter was Donovan Solano

In 2023, Miranda was injured and couldn't hit the ball even in AAA. He started the season as the team's primary 3B.

If they hate his glove so much, why has he had so many starts at 3B? That's a more difficult position defensively. It doesn't make any sense to say, "We don't trust this guy to play 1B, let's play him at a more difficult position instead". He didn't start at 1B much last year because Lewis was hurt, and Santana wasn't.

[Parfigliano]

2 hours ago, DJL44 said:

He's a much more legitimate option as a starter at 1B than Julien is at second base. They need an outfielder to move Castro to 2B more than they need to replace Miranda.

I would ask Texas to swap Paddack for Leody Tavares. That saves $3M and boosts the outfield defense considerably. Tavares is just entering into what should be his prime as a hitter.

Why would TX trade a hitter entering his prime for often injured not all that effective starter Paddock?

[MMMordabito]

Glad Margot is margone. Best news of the off-season so far.  Too bad Baldelli isn't going with him.

[SteveLV]

Miranda playing 1B is the least of our worries on this roster.

Lopez is an extremely valuable trade piece.  One option to dump salary would be to package him with Vasquez and/or Paddack (or all 3) to a high revenue team for a slew of young, hopefully good players.

If someone comes asking about Correa, and it is a market he would like to play in, pull the trigger.  Same for Buxton.

In other words:  Tear it down to the studs and start playing all the young, inexpensive players to see who can play and who can't.  We are stuck in the middle now and it isn't going to yield post-season success and is only frustrating for fans.

Meanwhile, hope the Pohlads find a buyer who is interested in fielding a competitive team in the current MLB environment.

[nicksaviking]

47 minutes ago, Nick Nelson said:

He made 12 starts there this year. I don't think that's a meaningful sample to analyze. He also made zero starts there in 2023, when their primary starter was Donovan Solano, which says a lot to me about how the Twins view him. I don't think people in the org would tell you they feel confident in Miranda's glove at 1B, outside of the occasional spot start or maybe as the RH in a platoon role. 

To be fair, Carlos Santana was both a plus defender AND played 150 games this year with 146 of those games as the starting 1B. The fact that Miranda made 12 starts seems like a good sign to me actually. No one other than Kirilloff started a game at 1B and Kirilloff was supposed to be Santana's left handed compliment. Once Kirilloff became unusable, Miranda was hands down their back up 1B and they didn't even bother looking for another option.

And in 2023 Miranda didn't beat out Solano for playing time because his bat wasn't good enough to play in the majors.