Rocco Baldelli, Derek Falvey Will Return in Their Roles with Twins in 2025

[sweetmusicviola16]

What you saw in 2024 is what you will get in 2025. They won't likely be horribly bad but they won't be great either. Typical Pohlad owned team. We likely won't see any game changers added either as they cost more than we will pay. Another 80 win team that can't beat the good teams is on the 2025 horizon.

[Squirrel]

3 minutes ago, Dave Borton said:

So who is buying this next Spring?

I think ash was saying that I had to treat him to a DQ, so you can treat me and he can treat you.

[Eric Blonigen]

54 minutes ago, karcherd said:

So what do you want ownership to do differently whether it is current or a new ownership group.  Falvey has set the analytics driven model that is not working.  What can ownership do differently, and if it is a higher budget, how much should it be.

Personally, I would say that even $20M more this season would have easily been the difference. That would have allowed for a couple of higher-wattage reliever signings than Jay Jackson and Josh Staumont, and would have allowed the front office to make some real trades at the deadline to address positions of need. Realistically, we are talking about needing four more wins, and $20M probably would have gotten the Twins there.

[karcherd]

22 minutes ago, Eric Blonigen said:

Personally, I would say that even $20M more this season would have easily been the difference. That would have allowed for a couple of higher-wattage reliever signings than Jay Jackson and Josh Staumont, and would have allowed the front office to make some real trades at the deadline to address positions of need. Realistically, we are talking about needing four more wins, and $20M probably would have gotten the Twins there.

This is exactly why ownership should have taken some time to examine the season and the organization.  You say $20 million could have won possibly 4 more games, don't necessarily disagree even I don't trust Falvine when it comes to identifying relief pitching.  But how about looking at the organizational strategies that drive the product on the field.  I bet if we go back we will find at least 4 games if not more that were lost because of the rigidity of the analytics this team wants to follow. Whether it was bullpen management, match ups or pinch hitting Margot.  So you might not have had to spend $20 million to get those needed 4 wins.  But this is why I wanted the organization to do a true analysis of the season and where they are at in relation to prior seasons, that is how you get the answer to the questions above.  This just shows a stubbornness to their model and no one is going to tell them they are wrong.  That is not the way successful organizations are run.

[karcherd]

47 minutes ago, TheLeviathan said:

Well, for one, it'd be nice if we didn't cut our spending.  So maybe just return to where we were last year?  That's a sizable amount of room to add depth and talent to this team.

Since it looks like Falvey and Baldelli are staying - I hope they take a fresh look at their models.  Implementation looks like it could be improved and altered from what was done this year.  (On speed/running and pinch hitting especially)

Do you really think Falvey will change the way this team does things, he was just given a vote of confidence by his boss after an epic collapse.  Why would you think you need to do something different.

[jmlease1]

I'm not particularly surprised. Falvey has rebuilt the farm system and the team has been substantially better under his watch than they had been in the previous regime. Rocco doesn't seem to have lost the clubhouse, and while I don't always agree with his tactical decisions (pinch hits the LH hitters a little too early, could do better with his bullpen, etc) he's been fairly good. Of course, I also think that most fans vastly overrate the impact the manager has on the team's success from a tactical perspective. There seems to be this belief that a "great" manager is worth a substantial number of wins all by themselves, just in how much better they manipulate batting orders, lineups, pitching changes, and/or calling for tactical actions with hitters/runners (hit & run, bunting, steals, etc) than the average manager. And I just don't think it's true.

It hasn't been a great season...but it wasn't a bad one either, just disappointing. The injuries really hurt again, and a number of players struggled with performance. (i.e., Kepler & Julien, who were both important in 2023, were not very good this year) It's extra frustrating because they looked to have a playoff spot locked up for so long and just utterly failed down the stretch. If it sounds familiar, that's because it is: 2022, the Twins were in first place in the Central for a lot of that season before going 11-22 to finish out the season and crapped the bed. This year it's a 9-18 finish. Injuries ruined that season. Cutting payroll on top of injuries and poor performances wrecked this one, IMHO.

My ranking for most responsibility:

1. Ownership
2. Players
3. Front office
4. Manager & on-field coaching staff

Are you going to get better by firing the people who weren't as responsible for the collapse and keeping most of the ones who were? Because ownership isn't going anywhere (for better or for worse), and while some players will move on, most of them will be back for another shot.

[TheLeviathan]

Just now, karcherd said:

Do you really think Falvey will change the way this team does things, he was just given a vote of confidence by his boss after an epic collapse.  Why would you think you need to do something different.

I'm not sure he will.  I do want the team to have strong core beliefs and work from those and not be haphazard in their approach.  But I agree with what I think you're getting at about being flexible and willing to change when something doesn't work.  

[karcherd]

1 minute ago, TheLeviathan said:

I'm not sure he will.  I do want the team to have strong core beliefs and work from those and not be haphazard in their approach.  But I agree with what I think you're getting at about being flexible and willing to change when something doesn't work.  

You are correct, you can't just change for the sake of change,  You need to have a model to work from, but you have to be willing to review if it is working and tweak or even blow it up if needed.  But Falvey just does not seem to waver to the point of stubbornness.  I hope he proves me wrong next year.

[TheLeviathan]

Just now, karcherd said:

You are correct, you can't just change for the sake of change,  You need to have a model to work from, but you have to be willing to review if it is working and tweak or even blow it up if needed.  But Falvey just does not seem to waver to the point of stubbornness.  I hope he proves me wrong next year.

I'll be right there with you if the failures from this year don't spark revisions.

[DJL44]

3 hours ago, CRF said:

I'm sure you all know the definition of insanity. 

Pinch hitting Manuel Margot.

[ashbury]

54 minutes ago, Squirrel said:

I think ash was saying that I had to treat him to a DQ, so you can treat me and he can treat you.

When there I will treat folks to their choice of yummy goodie at the concession stand in the back fields.

/ for those who haven't visited, there are no concession stands in the back fields.  Bring your own water, even.

[DJL44]

54 minutes ago, Eric Blonigen said:

Realistically, we are talking about needing four more wins, and $20M probably would have gotten the Twins there.

Conversely, if this front office couldn't buy 4 more wins for $20M then they probably deserve to be shown the door.

[DJL44]

Is Levine going to be the sacrificial lamb? 

I would love to see a reporter ask Baldelli what he was wrong about this year, what he learned and what he is going to do differently next season. If he gives a rambling non-answer then he should be fired. If he can't learn from his own mistakes he's useless.

[Linus]

This does not inspire confidence nor help their poor PR problems. 

[bean5302]

Screw the Pohlads. Some day, we may see some semblance of them running the business with accountability for the executives, but it's not this year. Hope they like bottom 5 attendance.

[Beast]

It’s largely worked?  In what way?  They’ve done nothing but win a few regular season games in the worst division in baseball.  Considering some of the talent they’ve had, what they’ve done is an abject failure.

I wonder if they’ve been advised that no legit and FO/manager would want to come here and potentially derail their career working for an inept ownership group that doesn’t care about winning and can’t get out of their own way.

[nicksaviking]

54 minutes ago, karcherd said:

Do you really think Falvey will change the way this team does things, he was just given a vote of confidence by his boss after an epic collapse.  Why would you think you need to do something different.

What exactly about Falvey don't you like? He's the engineer, the one saying things like, 'We need to strike out less and get on base more.' Or 'We need to improve our pitchers strikeout rates.' And 'Math is free, let's use it instead of just guessing.'

Seems pretty much every year this team at minimum attempts to change the things that didn't work the year prior. St. Peter, Levine and Baldelli seem to want to do the same thing year after year after year and I'd hold them way more accountable than Falvey. I don't find him faultless, but those faults tend to stem from him not firing those below him. And if ownership won't pay for two managers next year, which is believed but will never be confirmed, there's not much he can do about that.

I'm OK replacing him, but he has done way more modernizing this organization after the Terry Ryan era and I have zero desire to go back to being the team that only follows trends five years after every other team does.

[TheLeviathan]

27 minutes ago, Linus said:

This does not inspire confidence nor help their poor PR problems. 

I mean...if that doesn't focus your rage I don't know what will.

[Hosken Bombo Disco]

4 minutes ago, nicksaviking said:

What exactly about Falvey don't you like? He's the engineer, the one saying things like, 'We need to strike out less and get on base more.' Or 'We need to improve our pitchers strikeout rates.' And 'Math is free, let's use it instead of just guessing.'

Seems pretty much every year this team at minimum attempts to change the things that didn't work the year prior. St. Peter, Levine and Baldelli seem to want to do the same thing year after year after year and I'd hold them way more accountable than Falvey. I don't find him faultless, but those faults tend to stem from him not firing those below him. And if ownership won't pay for two managers next year, which is believed but will never be confirmed, there's not much he can do about that.

I'm OK replacing him, but he has done way more modernizing this organization after the Terry Ryan era and I have zero desire to go back to being the team that only follows trends five years after every other team does.

I have always seen Levine as more the assistant; the Rob Antony to Terry Ryan. But who knows. Maybe not.

Levine might play the "why-would-they-even-want-to-stay-here" card and leave of his own accord. But maybe not. Who knows.

[rv78]

When Pohlad says, "we will have a better product on the field next year" it tells me that they are admitting they failed.....  Or, he's flinging BS. I'm going with the BS.

[Eric Blonigen]

3 minutes ago, rv78 said:

When Pohlad says, "we will have a better product on the field next year" it tells me that they are admitting they failed.....  Or, he's flinging BS. I'm going with the BS.

It is interesting how he flat out said the product will be better, isn’t it?

[karcherd]

27 minutes ago, nicksaviking said:

What exactly about Falvey don't you like? He's the engineer, the one saying things like, 'We need to strike out less and get on base more.' Or 'We need to improve our pitchers strikeout rates.' And 'Math is free, let's use it instead of just guessing.'

Seems pretty much every year this team at minimum attempts to change the things that didn't work the year prior. St. Peter, Levine and Baldelli seem to want to do the same thing year after year after year and I'd hold them way more accountable than Falvey. I don't find him faultless, but those faults tend to stem from him not firing those below him. And if ownership won't pay for two managers next year, which is believed but will never be confirmed, there's not much he can do about that.

I'm OK replacing him, but he has done way more modernizing this organization after the Terry Ryan era and I have zero desire to go back to being the team that only follows trends five years after every other team does.

Falvey has created the analytics driven model that is being followed on the field.  The analytics staff he has built is driving the decisions of this organization.  This includes the roster construction of short sided platooning, hit the ball hard and go for the home run strategy, stolen bases do not impact the game strategy that is being utilized.  Analytics is a tool, but the team is using it as the driving baseline for most decisions.  That is on the PBO by the name of Falvey and if he continues with that model, the people reporting up to him have to follow the same strategy.

[Linus]

It’s crazy how inept the whole Pohlad family is at public relations. All of the quotes are basically saying “yea you fans should just mind your own business “. 

[chpettit19]

Not even a little surprised, but fairly disappointed. Falvey, Levine, and Rocco are a package deal. Falvey and Levine bring in Margot and Farmer types because they believe in platooning. Rocco platoons because he believes in platooning. Falvey and Levine bring in a billion AAAA reliever arms every year because they believe they can find a bullpen by August from the scrap heap. Rocco cycles through relievers and uses them all frequently until August because he believes he can find the right spots for the pieces by August. Firing Rocco doesn't solve anything. Firing Levine doesn't solve anything. Firing Falvey and letting the new guy pick his guys would. 

This regime believes in a few core principles. They're not changing that for next year because they haven't changed them in 8 years. They believe in cheap bullpens. They believe in being able to mix and match position players to make up for a lack of talent in a large chunk of the roster (specifically platooning). They believe in their moves (especially trades) needing to provide more than just short-term help, even if it means bringing in lesser talent (team control is king). They believe they can be Tampa 2.0 by spending more on the top 4 or 5 roster spots while mixing and matching the bottom.

If this team doesn't bring in a short-side platoon bat, cheap relievers, or makes a short-term trade this offseason it'll be the most surprising team building development I've ever seen in sports. This is who they are. And they aren't changing those core beliefs. And that's why I'm disappointed in a lack of changes being made. I don't think these strategies are ever going to give them a legit shot at a World Series. More than happy to be wrong, though.

[h2oface]

I just really don't enjoy the brand of baseball these guys want to play. Shifts, platoons, not caring about Ks, multi positioning that players really aren't a benefit at any position but play them anyway, rental over the hill vets, dumpster diving for spare parts, no stealing bases, not bunting, horrible 3rd base coaching.... really sick of it. They can blame it on the players, but it is really their system that isn't letting players excel and become who they could be, and they pick them. I find it quite cowardly to deflect so much, and am really tired of it, and now don't even get excited to see them live in visiting cities. Pitching pipeline? Another year of mediocre success if any from the pipe. Pohlads and this quasi business. He should sell it to an owner that wants to have it as a hobby that doesn't mind using his other riches to subsidize his fun and spend the $ he can't take with him to enjoy himself while he is still alive.

[bean5302]

43 minutes ago, Eric Blonigen said:

It is interesting how he flat out said the product will be better, isn’t it?

I'm sure they said the same thing after 2011. I have 0% confidence in the Twins delivering a better product next year. Even worse than anger is apathy, and the Twins are probably in that category at this point.

At the moment, I'd peg this franchise for 90+ losses next year. Detroit will get stronger. KC will get stronger. Chicago will get stronger. Cleveland looks set. The Twins are getting weaker.

[Jacksson]

Sorry, I cannot support either Rocco or his staff after the team folded down the stretch and blew their opportunity for post season play.  And did so after getting both Buxton & Correa back in the lineup at the same time.  Just not good enough in situational hitting and did not score enough runs.

GOODBYE = Kepler, Farmer, Margot, Thielbar, Paddack, Vasquez, DeSclafani, Kirilloff, Julien, Santana, etc.

 

[nicksaviking]

34 minutes ago, karcherd said:

Falvey has created the analytics driven model that is being followed on the field.  The analytics staff he has built is driving the decisions of this organization.  This includes the roster construction of short sided platooning, hit the ball hard and go for the home run strategy, stolen bases do not impact the game strategy that is being utilized.  Analytics is a tool, but the team is using it as the driving baseline for most decisions.  That is on the PBO by the name of Falvey and if he continues with that model, the people reporting up to him have to follow the same strategy.

Sorry, but teams need to be analytically capable these days. If you can use numbers to your advantage you need to do it or you will put yourself at a huge disadvantage.

But here is a point that absolutely NOBODY is talking about. Rocco Baldelli is not a slave to analytics, he is a slave to his 'gut' despite what the common refrain is. I dare someone to provide a stat that says Manny Margot should ever pinch hit after he's gone it 0-fer-whatever. Baldelli refuses to use young left handed hitters against left handed pitchers even if the alternative is a poor option and it's certain it will only be one at bat. Baldelli pinch runs for minimally slower but better hitters at all points in the game. He uses Jhoan Duran in non-save situations when Duran has a 5.63 ERA in non-save situations. These moves are his prerogative, not analytics because an analytical evaluation would tell him NOT to make these moves, or at minimum, don't ALWAYS make these moves.

He is extremely predictable which all but proves he is managing with his 'gut' and not numbers because when factoring in all of the variables like pitcher, opponent, ballpark, inning, number of outs plus all all of the actual counting stats, there is no way that the same decision should be made Every Single Time when the factors are never the same. An analytically inclined manager would surprise you with his decisions due to obfuscated data, yet we are never surprised.

[Pat]

The Joe Pohlad comments really are insulting.  Typical corporate speak.  Really a sad excuse for what should be a whole sale evaluation of the organization's approach.  "We will be better next year." How??? Cutting payroll and bargain basement shopping will not get the job done.

[thelanges5]