Four-Team Photo Finish Will Test Twins' Mettle and Fans' Faith

[Cody Christie]

Baseball’s final week of the season can produce drama. Four AL teams, including three Central foes, are vying for two Wild Card spots. So, how do the teams stack up, and what are the spiraling Twins' chances?

 

Image courtesy of Matt Blewett, Jay Biggerstaff, Brad Rempel, Nathan Ray Seebeck-USA TODAY Sports

As the final week of the 2024 season unfolds, the American League Wild Card race is heating up, and it’s a battle few saw coming. The Minnesota Twins, Detroit Tigers, Kansas City Royals, and Seattle Mariners are locked in a fierce four-team food fight for the final two Wild Card spots. With October looming, every game and every pitch could swing the momentum, and the drama is just beginning.

Kansas City Royals (Current Record: 82-74)
FanGraphs Playoff Odds: 69.6%
Remaining Schedule: 3 Games @ Washington, 3 Games @ Atlanta
The Royals have been freefalling in recent weeks, with a 7-11 record in September. Entering play on Sept. 1, FanGraphs had them at a 79.5% chance to make the playoffs, which has only dropped slightly despite their poor play; they can thank the Twins for that. Their final week schedule is tough, because they have to go on the road for six games, and they have a 37-38 record away from Kauffman Stadium. Few thought Kansas City would be in this position in 2024, and they have been one of baseball’s best stories throughout the season.

In a weird schedule quirk, the Royals finish the season with three straight series against NL opponents, including two road series to end the year in Washington and Atlanta. The Nationals have the third-worst record in the NL and have been outscored by 100 runs. They've been playing solely for pride for multiple weeks, and they clearly don't have much of that; they just had to demote starting shortstop C.J. Abrams to the minor leagues after he stayed out until morning at a Chicago casino. This opponent might come precisely at the time when Kansas City desperately needs to get back on track.

Atlanta is a much different story, as they need to track down the Mets or Diamondbacks over the final week to earn a playoff spot. That series figures to be a brawl, and makes the Royals' path to the postseason fairly perilous. They have ace lefty Cole Ragans pitching Tuesday night in Washington, and therefore, they'll have the option to use him again Sunday if a berth is on the line.

Detroit Tigers (Current Record: 82-74)
FanGraphs Playoff Odds: 69.2%
Remaining Schedule: 3 vs. Tampa, 3 vs. Chicago (AL)
The Tigers have moved from an afterthought in the AL to a serious contender, due to a hot stretch since the trade deadline. As a reminder, the Tigers were active sellers at the deadline, dealing away Jack Flaherty, Mark Canha, Andrew Chafin, and Carson Kelly. Detroit responded with a 17-11 record (.607 W-L%) in August and have played at an even hotter pace in September, with a 12-6 record (.667 W-L%). On Aug. 1, FanGraphs pegged the Tigers as having a 0.5% chance of making the playoffs. It’s been an unbelievable run, no matter what happens this week. 

Detroit starts the final week by facing Tampa at home. The Rays have hovered around the .500 mark in a tough AL East with two strong teams at the top. Tampa is pesky even when they struggle and are 11-10 this month, so they should provide a competitive series, despite not being in the playoff race.

The schedule makers inadvertently gave the Tigers a massive gift on the season’s final weekend--one that might help them secure a playoff berth. Three games against the Chicago White Sox, the worst baseball team in history, should allow Detroit to end the year on a high note. Chicago has five wins in September, more than they accumulated in July or August. Minnesota fans have to hope the White Sox can steal one game in the series. Likely AL Cy Young winner Tarik Skubal pitches Tuesday, just like Ragans, and can pitch twice this week if the team needs him Sunday.

Minnesota Twins (Current Record: 81-75)
FanGraphs Playoff Odds: 54.7%
Remaining Schedule 3 vs. Miami, 3 vs. Baltimore
The Twins have posted a .500 record or above in every month of the season, except for September. On Sept. 1, FanGraphs projected the Twins’ playoff odds at 91.7%, with a 20% chance to still win the AL Central. Cleveland clinched the division over the weekend, and Minnesota has seen their playoff chances shrink significantly. After a frustrating series in Boston, the Twins find themselves on the outside looking in for the final spot. Minnesota also has arguably the toughest remaining strength of schedule between these four teams.

A three-game series against Miami allows the Twins to put themselves back into the playoff picture. The Marlins are the NL’s worst team this season, and they have been outscored by over 220 runs. Minnesota is projected to start Bailey Ober, Simeon Woods Richardson, and David Festa in the three-game set that may very well decide their playoff fate. In the year's final series, the Twins will face the Orioles, who will likely have little to play for in the three-game set. Baltimore is all but locked into the top Wild Card spot, and will have an opportunity to line up their playoff rotation and rest some of their regular players. The Twins must take advantage of a lesser version of the Orioles. Ober could pitch Sunday, as well as Tuesday, and Pablo López will pitch Friday or Saturday, assuming the weekend games still matter.

Seattle Mariners (Current Record: 80-76)
FanGraphs Playoff Odds: 6.1% 
Remaining Schedule: 3 @ Houston, 3 vs. Oakland
Poor play by the Twins and Royals has thrust the Mariners back into the playoff picture. Seattle played sub-.500 ball in July and August, before a modest September surge that might save their playoff hopes. When the month started, Seattle had a 7.3% chance of making the playoffs, and they're more or less in the same spot now. After a heartbreaking loss on Sunday, the Mariners will need help from the AL Central contenders while facing two division foes who know them well.

The Mariners have done surprisingly well against the Astros this season, with a 6-4 record heading into their final three-game set. However, they haven’t faced each other since mid-July, and Houston has played significantly better in the second half of the season. It will be a tough series, especially for a team 10 games below .500 on the road. Seattle ends the year at home, with a three-game series against an Oakland team that has gone 3-7 in its last 10 contests. These two teams know each other well, with the Mariners holding a 6-4 advantage so far in 2024. 

The Twins find themselves in an interesting situation, with three teams standing between them and a playoff spot. Sunday's doubleheader double whammy also means the Twins don't control their own fate. Based on their head-to-head matchups this season, the Twins hold the tiebreaker against all three teams, which might turn out to be the difference between making or missing the playoffs, but they have to play well over their final two series to make those tiebreakers matter.

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How will the final week play out for the AL Wild Card contenders? Add your record and playoff predictions in the comments, below.

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[Peter]

4-2 gets us in!!! WE MUST support our twins this week!!! NO Vikings/Twolves/Wild chat!!! Love all 3 teams but this is twins chat room!!! Enjoy no twins game today-It’s going to be intense/stressful nerve wracking week!!! As I said WE MUST watch/support our twins NO MATTER what!!! 

[S Bart]

Of course. At least they are at home. 

However, there needs to be a serious review of the past season next month by Rocco, Levine/Falvey, and yes, the Board including Joe Pohlad. Status quo like last year after the season just cannot continue.

[Karbo]

21 minutes ago, Peter said:

4-2 gets us in!!! WE MUST support our twins this week!!! NO Vikings/Twolves/Wild chat!!! Love all 3 teams but this is twins chat room!!! Enjoy no twins game today-It’s going to be intense/stressful nerve wracking week!!! As I said WE MUST watch/support our twins NO MATTER what!!! 

At least they won't lose today

[wavedog]

As poorly as the Twins have played the past month - it's still out in front of them.  1 game back of 2 teams  - 6 games at home, 3 against the worst team in the NL and Baltimore may not have anything to play for and favorable tie-breakers with the other 3 teams in the race.  Can the team and manager turn this crappy play around?   This will be an interesting week if nothing else.     

[Doctor Wu]

Sure, we can still sneak in and make it as a wild card team, but a very weak one. I love the Twins and HOPE they will catch fire and show signs of life, but my faith and enthusiasm are all but extinguished at this point. 

[chpettit19]

Should be an exciting week. Each team has a 3 game series they're hoping to sweep and a 3 game series with a tough team. Whichever team(s) can get a sweep in their 3 game series against a bad team puts themselves in a good position. Anybody losing 2 of those games can probably start making tee times for next week.

KC and MN need to make their hay in their first 3 game sets because trying to make up games while you're playing a playoff team/contender while Detroit plays the worst team in the history of major league baseball is going to be tough sledding. Yes, Baltimore could very well be locked into their playoff slot, but they're playing bad baseball right now and aren't just going to roll over for the Twins. They're in the playoffs but need to get themselves right. And they only have a 28 man roster so it's not like the old days where those last 3 games would see them possibly playing the bottom of their 40-man. Gunnar and the gang can't all sit. The starting pitching matchups would be the only place the Twins could see some let up from them as their priority (if they've clinched their spot) will be setting up their rotation for the wild card series.

Things can click at any moment and they can turn things back on. But I don't have much, if any, faith in that happening after watching them fall on their faces yet again yesterday. It's been "playoff" time for the Twins for about a week already. But their postseason really starts Tuesday. You can't lose either of those series and feel good about your chances. Any more than 2 losses and you can't feel good about your chances. Will be fascinating to see what crowds look like this week. Maybe the business department will learn some lessons if they see a handful of crowds under 20k while their team "fights" for a playoff birth. Fans tend to "right-size" their own budgets when they're not impressed with your product.

[insagt1]

Twins are playing SO poorly these days optimism of any kind is a fairy tale. Watching them yesterday you saw a team I'll prepared to be a contender. They were a mess. They will need a ton more of whatever it takes to make the playoffs. And don't think the Orioles will have nothing to play for this weekend. They have been as hopeless as the Twins and they can't afford to rest anyone. That series featuring two teams that have lost their way should be curiously interesting. They are my 2 favorite teams so I'd kinda like at least one of them to make the cut and start playing well.

[MinnInPa]

can't hit , cant score runs, cant pitch, run bases poorly ..what could go wrong???

[mnfireman]

A 4-2 week after what has happened recently is a pretty big ask, but I guess they could turn it good as quickly as they turned it bad...

[Craig Arko]

Better whip out that sausage.

[Finfineman]

The biggest problem amongst many is starting Mathews, Festa and the others who have about three wins and ten losses.  Ive been saying it all year with soooooo many dissenters and negative replies.  They should have signed Sonny Gray.  His 13 wins with a 71-win team last year would have translated to the Twins winning the division and/or being solidly in a wild card position.  Dont tell me he wanted to leave.  That has been proven not true.  The Twins didnt try.  Good teams keep their good players.  The Twins revenue according to Forbes was 342 million in 2023.  Their payroll was 156 million.  That is almost a 200-million-dollar difference.  The Pohlads are worth about four billion.  Are you telling me they couldnt find 25 million to pay Gray or another Ace?  They paid themselves...... very well thank you........once again.  The bottom line is they lined their pockets and cheaped out......on us.......the fans.

[TwinsDr2021]

I hope the Twins get in and make a run. But if they don't get in, or back in and get swept there has to be serious consideration of replacing the manager. It will be very hard to get fans into Target field if that happens and Rocco is back. On top of salary cutting last year and possibly more next year.

 

[LambchoP]

I hope our guys can get hot and sneak in, I'm just really losing hope after watching them screw it up day after day. I feel like we haven't scored more than 2 maybe 3 runs all month. If we miss the playoffs, the people in charge need to take a serious look at how this team is managed and make some real changes. I'm not a Rocco fan at all, but he's not going anywhere. I don't know how the hitting coaches aren't fired after a final month like this....

[NYCTK]

2 hours ago, S Bart said:

Of course. At least they are at home. 

However, there needs to be a serious review of the past season next month by Rocco, Levine/Falvey, and yes, the Board including Joe Pohlad. Status quo like last year after the season just cannot continue.

Do we think they even draw 25,000 this week? Fans aren't dumb. No one wants to watch a team that's given up already. 

A final homestand to potentially make the playoffs and I doubt a single game will be anywhere near a sellout. 

[Mark G]

I am curious as to how our schedule would be deemed the easiest.  Detroit has a .500 team with nothing to play for and a 120 plus loss team that may be so demoralized by this weekend they don't appear likely to put up much of a fight.  We have a 100 loss team as well, but one that is at least a theoretical threat and a playoff team looking to get right before next week.  I know we are at home for all 6, but so is Detroit.  Somehow I don't think our schedule is the easiest.  But, as always, I can be educated.  😉

[Rhyno006]

1 hour ago, Craig Arko said:

Better whip out that sausage.

[NYCTK]

If anyone here is actually going to the game, being out a massive "Sell the Team" banner. We gotta start a movement. 

[chpettit19]

1 hour ago, TwinsDr2021 said:

I hope the Twins get in and make a run. But if they don't get in, or back in and get swept there has to be serious consideration of replacing the manager. It will be very hard to get fans into Target field if that happens and Rocco is back. On top of salary cutting last year and possibly more next year.

 

Not just Rocco, but the front office as well.

[Western SD Fan]

Seattle has gone 16-12 since firing their manager. Report were he lost the clubhouse and amid their free fall. DiPitio fired the manager likely to try to save his own job.  Meanwhile, the Twins have gone 10-19 and likely would be the worst team in that stretch had it not been for the White Sox. I don’t know how Rocco has not lost the clubhouse at this point. I also find it fascinating how both Correa and Buxton got right and came off the IL the same weekend. I have no proof, just generating conspiracy theories. My conspiracy theory is they were content letting this collapse happen just so they wouldn’t risk further injury in a lost cause. We will never get the real answers we need for what happened, but hopefully some accountability is taken.

[Aggies7]

Seems like the team has QUIT. I know that’s a bad word on here but what else do you call it? 

[Fire Dan Gladden]

4 hours ago, Peter said:

4-2 gets us in!!! WE MUST support our twins this week!!! NO Vikings/Twolves/Wild chat!!! Love all 3 teams but this is twins chat room!!! Enjoy no twins game today-It’s going to be intense/stressful nerve wracking week!!! As I said WE MUST watch/support our twins NO MATTER what!!! 

That's right everyone!  Support and invest in the Twins just as much as ownership has this year!

[Muppet]

The AL Wild Card is a portkey straight to Voldermort and Detroit is the only team that doesn't know this. If they find out soon, there is just enough time for them to force the Twins into the Wild Card should the Twins accidentally win one more game. 

[David Maro]

Time to be honest here,this team has given up and are ready to hit the Links.They can't hit and the so called leaders on the team look even worse than the rookies.Just look at Buxton who struck out time and time again this weekend.And Correa surely didn't look any better.And to make matters worse a manager who's moves blew up in his face again and again.We at least can now move on to the Vikings who are giving the fans something to cheer for.

[spanman2]

5 hours ago, Peter said:

4-2 gets us in!!! WE MUST support our twins this week!!! NO Vikings/Twolves/Wild chat!!! Love all 3 teams but this is twins chat room!!! Enjoy no twins game today-It’s going to be intense/stressful nerve wracking week!!! As I said WE MUST watch/support our twins NO MATTER what!!! 

4-2 at a minimum.  Could go as high as #2 WC overall or miss out completely.  Potential to be a very intriguing 6 game stretch.  

[bean5302]

2 hours ago, NYCTK said:

If anyone here is actually going to the game, being out a massive "Sell the Team" banner. We gotta start a movement. 

No. There are so many worse ownership groups than what the Twins have. Go ahead and scroll down the list of teams in the standings and pick the ones you'd definitely want to own the Twins over the Pohlads vs. the ones you'd definitely rather stay status quo. The Pohlads are somewhere in the middle IMHO.

[Coach Wheels]

7 hours ago, Peter said:

4-2 gets us in!!! WE MUST support our twins this week!!! NO Vikings/Twolves/Wild chat!!! Love all 3 teams but this is twins chat room!!! Enjoy no twins game today-It’s going to be intense/stressful nerve wracking week!!! As I said WE MUST watch/support our twins NO MATTER what!!! 

 I don't know if 4-2 will be enough. Royals get Nats and Braves, Tigers get Rays and White Sox, we're a game back of both and I don't see either of those 2 going 3-3. I think we're iIna spot where 5-1 might the only way we control our destiny. 4-2, with the tiebreaker, maybe that works.

[CRF]

4 hours ago, Craig Arko said:

Better whip out that sausage.

Isn't that what Lili Von Shtupp said to Bart, in Blazing Saddles? Anyway, she's tired of the losing too, just like the rest of us!

[USAFChief]

I have always laughed at Fangraphs' "playoff odds," and I still am.

They're a joke. I mean, a 0.5% chance less than 2 months ago? 

But the worst: 4 teams competing for 2 spots, but THREE have a better than 50/50 chance to get one of those 2 spots??

How can three be favorites for two spots?

[bean5302]

31 minutes ago, USAFChief said:

I have always laughed at Fangraphs' "playoff odds," and I still am.

They're a joke. I mean, a 0.5% chance less than 2 months ago? 

But the worst: 4 teams competing for 2 spots, but THREE have a better than 50/50 chance to get one of those 2 spots??

How can three be favorites for two spots?

It's a projection system. There are 4 spots teams competing for 2 spots. So the 4 teams have to add up to 200% (2 spots). 70% Tigers, 70% Royals, 55% Twins, 5% Mariners = 200%.

In the projection scenarios from a couple months ago, virtually none of the projections (with the existing rosters at the time) had the Twins, Royals, Red Sox and Mariners all collapsing as much as they did.