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As the final week of the 2024 season unfolds, the American League Wild Card race is heating up, and it’s a battle few saw coming. The Minnesota Twins, Detroit Tigers, Kansas City Royals, and Seattle Mariners are locked in a fierce four-team food fight for the final two Wild Card spots. With October looming, every game and every pitch could swing the momentum, and the drama is just beginning.
Kansas City Royals (Current Record: 82-74)
FanGraphs Playoff Odds: 69.6%
Remaining Schedule: 3 Games @ Washington, 3 Games @ Atlanta
The Royals have been freefalling in recent weeks, with a 7-11 record in September. Entering play on Sept. 1, FanGraphs had them at a 79.5% chance to make the playoffs, which has only dropped slightly despite their poor play; they can thank the Twins for that. Their final week schedule is tough, because they have to go on the road for six games, and they have a 37-38 record away from Kauffman Stadium. Few thought Kansas City would be in this position in 2024, and they have been one of baseball’s best stories throughout the season.
In a weird schedule quirk, the Royals finish the season with three straight series against NL opponents, including two road series to end the year in Washington and Atlanta. The Nationals have the third-worst record in the NL and have been outscored by 100 runs. They've been playing solely for pride for multiple weeks, and they clearly don't have much of that; they just had to demote starting shortstop C.J. Abrams to the minor leagues after he stayed out until morning at a Chicago casino. This opponent might come precisely at the time when Kansas City desperately needs to get back on track.
Atlanta is a much different story, as they need to track down the Mets or Diamondbacks over the final week to earn a playoff spot. That series figures to be a brawl, and makes the Royals' path to the postseason fairly perilous. They have ace lefty Cole Ragans pitching Tuesday night in Washington, and therefore, they'll have the option to use him again Sunday if a berth is on the line.
Detroit Tigers (Current Record: 82-74)
FanGraphs Playoff Odds: 69.2%
Remaining Schedule: 3 vs. Tampa, 3 vs. Chicago (AL)
The Tigers have moved from an afterthought in the AL to a serious contender, due to a hot stretch since the trade deadline. As a reminder, the Tigers were active sellers at the deadline, dealing away Jack Flaherty, Mark Canha, Andrew Chafin, and Carson Kelly. Detroit responded with a 17-11 record (.607 W-L%) in August and have played at an even hotter pace in September, with a 12-6 record (.667 W-L%). On Aug. 1, FanGraphs pegged the Tigers as having a 0.5% chance of making the playoffs. It’s been an unbelievable run, no matter what happens this week.
Detroit starts the final week by facing Tampa at home. The Rays have hovered around the .500 mark in a tough AL East with two strong teams at the top. Tampa is pesky even when they struggle and are 11-10 this month, so they should provide a competitive series, despite not being in the playoff race.
The schedule makers inadvertently gave the Tigers a massive gift on the season’s final weekend--one that might help them secure a playoff berth. Three games against the Chicago White Sox, the worst baseball team in history, should allow Detroit to end the year on a high note. Chicago has five wins in September, more than they accumulated in July or August. Minnesota fans have to hope the White Sox can steal one game in the series. Likely AL Cy Young winner Tarik Skubal pitches Tuesday, just like Ragans, and can pitch twice this week if the team needs him Sunday.
Minnesota Twins (Current Record: 81-75)
FanGraphs Playoff Odds: 54.7%
Remaining Schedule 3 vs. Miami, 3 vs. Baltimore
The Twins have posted a .500 record or above in every month of the season, except for September. On Sept. 1, FanGraphs projected the Twins’ playoff odds at 91.7%, with a 20% chance to still win the AL Central. Cleveland clinched the division over the weekend, and Minnesota has seen their playoff chances shrink significantly. After a frustrating series in Boston, the Twins find themselves on the outside looking in for the final spot. Minnesota also has arguably the toughest remaining strength of schedule between these four teams.
A three-game series against Miami allows the Twins to put themselves back into the playoff picture. The Marlins are the NL’s worst team this season, and they have been outscored by over 220 runs. Minnesota is projected to start Bailey Ober, Simeon Woods Richardson, and David Festa in the three-game set that may very well decide their playoff fate. In the year's final series, the Twins will face the Orioles, who will likely have little to play for in the three-game set. Baltimore is all but locked into the top Wild Card spot, and will have an opportunity to line up their playoff rotation and rest some of their regular players. The Twins must take advantage of a lesser version of the Orioles. Ober could pitch Sunday, as well as Tuesday, and Pablo López will pitch Friday or Saturday, assuming the weekend games still matter.
Seattle Mariners (Current Record: 80-76)
FanGraphs Playoff Odds: 6.1%
Remaining Schedule: 3 @ Houston, 3 vs. Oakland
Poor play by the Twins and Royals has thrust the Mariners back into the playoff picture. Seattle played sub-.500 ball in July and August, before a modest September surge that might save their playoff hopes. When the month started, Seattle had a 7.3% chance of making the playoffs, and they're more or less in the same spot now. After a heartbreaking loss on Sunday, the Mariners will need help from the AL Central contenders while facing two division foes who know them well.
The Mariners have done surprisingly well against the Astros this season, with a 6-4 record heading into their final three-game set. However, they haven’t faced each other since mid-July, and Houston has played significantly better in the second half of the season. It will be a tough series, especially for a team 10 games below .500 on the road. Seattle ends the year at home, with a three-game series against an Oakland team that has gone 3-7 in its last 10 contests. These two teams know each other well, with the Mariners holding a 6-4 advantage so far in 2024.
The Twins find themselves in an interesting situation, with three teams standing between them and a playoff spot. Sunday's doubleheader double whammy also means the Twins don't control their own fate. Based on their head-to-head matchups this season, the Twins hold the tiebreaker against all three teams, which might turn out to be the difference between making or missing the playoffs, but they have to play well over their final two series to make those tiebreakers matter.
How will the final week play out for the AL Wild Card contenders? Add your record and playoff predictions in the comments, below.
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