Bailey Ober Has Gone From Exceptional to Very Exceptional

[Nick Nelson]

When it comes to starting pitchers, there is a certain threshold that divides the good from the great – the guys you want starting in the playoffs and the guys that you don't. We seem to be watching Bailey Ober cross that threshold before our very eyes.

Image courtesy of Matt Krohn-USA TODAY Sports

When I was down in Ft. Myers for spring training back in March, one of the players who intrigued me most was Bailey Ober. He felt so integral to the viability of a post-Sonny Gray rotation: a pitcher with legit frontline ability who just needed to prove it out over a bigger sample, and carry it through the finish line. Ober had pitched up to the level of a top-tier starter, but when push came to shove, the Twins didn't really trust him to start a playoff game. Changing that felt critical to the 2024 team's outlook.

In camp, there were positive signs. Ober was pitching brilliantly in the Grapefruit League, as he experimented with a new cutter and flashed unprecedented levels of velocity. Following one of this strong outings, I asked manager Rocco Baldelli what it would take for Ober to take the next step. 

"Bailey’s a difficult one to talk about in that conversation because he does a lot of different things really well, and has from truly the day he walked in the door at the big-league level," Baldelli said. "Could he go from exceptional to very exceptional? It's like, I don't know, maybe."

The point was well taken. Ober entered this season with a 3.63 ERA in nearly 300 major-league innings. That's a track record many would envy. At the same time, the Twins still didn't want to ride him last October, with everything on the line, so he couldn't have been viewed as that exceptional. Right? Rocco's riff really seemed to get to the heart of the matter: Ober's last remaining hurdle was indeed making that leap from good to great; from exceptional to very exceptional.

He didn't get off to a good start in this pursuit, to say the least. Ober's first start of the 2024 season was almost unimaginably bad; he was clubbed by the Royals in Kansas City for eight earned runs in 1 ⅓ innings. But the right-hander instantly turned the page and has pitched like a true frontline force ever since. 

In 19 starts since flushing that Kauffman clunker, Ober has a 3.17 ERA and 3.40 FIP, holding opponents to a .197 batting average. He's only gotten better as the season has progressed, with Ober's hot streak reaching new heights in his latest start, perhaps the finest of his career. On Sunday he mowed down the Tigers over eight innings of shutout, one-hit ball, setting a personal record with 11 strikeouts.

Ober's newly added cutter has become an integral part of his arsenal, accounting for 22% of pitches thrown. And while it's been a solid offering in its own right, generating a 22% whiff rate and holding opponents to a .253 average, the cutter's biggest value might be simply bringing another offspeed variant that makes his accompanying changeup and slider even harder to pick up. Those pitches are the ones Ober is really using to dominate – opponents are whiffing 39% of the time against his changeup and batting .096 against his slider.

Sunday's outing added to a solidifying trend we've seen from Ober – he's not just pitching well, he is flat-out dominating, like never before. Sunday's start was the third in his past six where Ober tallied 20+ swings and misses. He'd previously done so once in his career. Since the midpoint of June he leads all MLB pitchers in swinging-strike rate, and check out his company at the top:

1. Bailey Ober, 17.3%
2. Cole Ragans, 16.4%
3. Logan Gilbert, 15.8%
4. Tarik Skubal, 15.7%
5. Max Scherzer, 14.7%
6. Corbin Burnes, 14.5%

That group below Ober includes four All-Stars, and all pitchers who could or will start in the playoffs. In fact there are several Game 1 caliber starters. Maybe it's time we started talking about Ober in that conversation. 

Of course, this is putting the cart in front of the proverbial horse. The real final hurdle for the 29-year-old is proving he can sustain and maintain his excellence through the end of a long MLB season and beyond. That's been a sticking point. In 2022, injuries limited Ober to just 56 innings with the Twins. Last year he powered through 26 starts, but the team felt wary enough of his diminishing stamina late in the season that they sent him down to Triple-A for a spell in September, and then gave him a short leash in a three-inning ALDS start. 

The lack of faith was justified based on Ober's postseason results. Between that Game 1 start and a relief appearance in the Game 3 blowout loss, he gave up six earned runs on four homers in 4 ⅓ innings. It surely left a sour taste in his mouth, and maybe that plays a role in driving his inspired play this season. We'll see if it can fuel him to the finish line, and from there, his shot at Oct-Ober redemption.

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[Karbo]

He looks like the most consistent pitcher on the staff at this point. He would for sure be a starter if they make the playoffs. Now he just needs to figure out how to pitch to KC.

[tony&rodney]

Fantastic article. Bailey Ober is certainly worthy of praise and recognition for his work.

Excellence is incredibly difficult to maintain as a starting pitcher. In any given outing a starter will struggle with at least one pitch and face choices about how to shift strategy from what pitches are working at the time. This is often why some good starters are vulnerable in the first inning or two but then settle into a groove as they find a rhythm.

Ober benefits from his command and control of numerous pitches over sheer velocity. Whereas Gerrit Cole may get away with a high 90s fastball while he works to manage his repertoire, Ober needs to navigate at speeds where his mistakes may disappear over a fence. It is a credit to Ober's confidence and mental toughness that he has kept to his game plan with such consistency and tunneled his pitches so effectively, keeping the ball off of the barrel.

Ober has been exceptional this year. He seems like he could pitch all day. Bert Blyleven must be thinking that Ober should throw 125+ pitches every game. He might be right. I sure hope Bailey finishes the year strong because he is one of my favorite pitchers in baseball to watch. Every starting pitcher will have bad days though as seen by a recent tough outing from Logan Gilbert. The Twins are lucky to have Ober and I expect him to start in the playoffs.

[1985Fan]

The real gauge of how good Ober is should be how has he fared against the really good hitters and teams. It was great to see him dominate Detroit, but they’re not a playoff team. The good to great hitters and playoff teams are going to determine the caliber of pitcher he is. How will he do against Cleveland? If the Twins make the playoffs, he should get a chance to pitch against NYY, Orioles, or whoever they play. 

[chinmusic]

40 minutes ago, 1985Fan said:

he should get a chance to pitch against NYY, Orioles, or whoever they play. 

Yes, he should. He's earned it. Of course, he would have to, regardless. The rotation wasn't fortified with options.

[Doctor Gast]

Timely article Nick. It's something that has plagued most fans' thoughts, Are Ryan & Ober going to step up & fill that void left by Gray? Ryan has over-shadowed Ober because of his stuff & hype so Ober has been overlooked. But Ryan has been plagued by the HR ball & his difficulty against elite line-ups. Ober has been quietly proving himself against the powerhouse PHI & now against the hot NYM. You have convinced me Nick, that Ober is a viable postseason SP. My main concern now is to keep Ober fresh & avoid any wearing down or injury coming into the postseason. That should be the focus with the entire rotation & BP. Bring up Varland & use Dobber a lot in long relief. I know it isn't Baldelli's thing but it needs to be.

[Schmoeman5]

13 minutes ago, Doctor Gast said:

Timely article Nick. It's something that has plagued most fans' thoughts, Are Ryan & Ober going to step up & fill that void left by Gray? Ryan has over-shadowed Ober because of his stuff & hype so Ober has been overlooked. But Ryan has been plagued by the HR ball & his difficulty against elite line-ups. Ober has been quietly proving himself against the powerhouse PHI & now against the hot NYM. You have convinced me Nick, that Ober is a viable postseason SP. My main concern now is to keep Ober fresh & avoid any wearing down or injury coming into the postseason. That should be the focus with the entire rotation & BP. Bring up Varland & use Dobber a lot in long relief. I know it isn't Baldelli's thing but it needs to be.

With lack of real depth in SP. How do the Twins go about keeping their starters fresh  and avoid any wearing down when they'll be fighting to get in the playoffs? You might give SWR an extra day off or whoever is going to be the 5th starter. But Ober Ryan and Lopez won't be afforded that luxury. 

[Doctor Gast]

24 minutes ago, Schmoeman5 said:

With lack of real depth in SP. How do the Twins go about keeping their starters fresh  and avoid any wearing down when they'll be fighting to get in the playoffs? You might give SWR an extra day off or whoever is going to be the 5th starter. But Ober Ryan and Lopez won't be afforded that luxury. 

Timely article Nick. It's something that has plagued most fans' thoughts, Are Ryan & Ober going to step up & fill that void left by Gray? Ryan has over-shadowed Ober because of his stuff & hype so Ober has been overlooked. But Ryan has been plagued by the HR ball & his difficulty against elite line-ups. Ober has been quietly proving himself against the powerhouse PHI & now against the hot NYM. You have convinced me Nick, that Ober is a viable postseason SP. My main concern now is to keep Ober fresh & avoid any wearing down or injury coming into the postseason. That should be the focus with the entire rotation & BP. Bring up Varland & use Dobber a lot in long relief. I know it isn't Baldelli's thing but it needs to be.

Spot starting/ long relief goes a long way. We have Dobber, Varland, Festa, Sands, Paddack when he comes back and we can also find pitchers on the waiver-wire & could sign a Rich Hill who could also do the job. The idea is cutting back innings not only skipped games. The focus should not be only the moment but the big picture, which is more quality innings & being injury free

[mnfireman]

When Ober's good, he' very good; when he's bad, he's horrible.

15 GS allowing 3 R or less - 94 IP, 21 ER, 2.01 ERA, 9 HR, 104/22 K/BB, team record 9-6

5 GS allowing 4 R or more - 20 IP, 27 ER, 12.15 ERA, 8 HR, 17/5 K/BB, team record 2-3

[JD-TWINS]

1 hour ago, 1985Fan said:

The real gauge of how good Ober is should be how has he fared against the really good hitters and teams. It was great to see him dominate Detroit, but they’re not a playoff team. The good to great hitters and playoff teams are going to determine the caliber of pitcher he is. How will he do against Cleveland? If the Twins make the playoffs, he should get a chance to pitch against NYY, Orioles, or whoever they play. 

3.17 ERA over last 19 starts (omitting only his 1st start) …….to me, that’s a broad enough sample size to have confidence in him against any line-up in the League……..his dominance reaches back further than Detroit’s mediocre line-up.

Last year Ryan was much better at home so they set him up to start at Target…….this year, I think it’s the reverse. Depending upon where we play & when, relative to rest, Ober could be Game 1 or Game 2 starter. Rocco loves continuity, so Lopez - Ryan - Ober is most likely, obviously. No doubt, if they are active, Ober will pitch!

[JD-TWINS]

52 minutes ago, Schmoeman5 said:

With lack of real depth in SP. How do the Twins go about keeping their starters fresh  and avoid any wearing down when they'll be fighting to get in the playoffs? You might give SWR an extra day off or whoever is going to be the 5th starter. But Ober Ryan and Lopez won't be afforded that luxury. 

Paddack’s availability will play into this strategy - big time! Using him to start every 10-12 days could allow a skipped start for each guy & keep Paddack’s innings manageable as well over next 50 games. To me, an extra day isn’t a big help but an extra 5 days is like a second All-Star break.

[roger]

Great read, Nick, thanks.

Add me to those who believe Ober has replaced Sonny as a solid #2.  Question remains how he will fare in September and whether or not the Twins can get him a few starts off?

Is important that the Twins skip his start when playing in Kansas City.

[Patzky]

4 minutes ago, roger said:

Great read, Nick, thanks.

Add me to those who believe Ober has replaced Sonny as a solid #2.  Question remains how he will fare in September and whether or not the Twins can get him a few starts off?

Is important that the Twins skip his start when playing in Kansas City.

You want to slay your demons but not destroy the confidence for no reason.

 

Except this year the Royals are giving us a reason. Come October the battle may have to happen

 

 

[LambchoP]

Obers been great, real fun to watch. I'd still like to see him pitch like he did against Detroit while facing some of the better teams in the league before I'm completely sold. I really think Rocco needs to do something to keep Lopez, Ryan and Ober fresh for the postseason. If we make it there of course. I like the idea of trying out Varland, Dobnak and Paddack if we get him back as long relief guys. We have to find a way to keep our starters fresh and healthy without blowing out our bullpen.

[JD-TWINS]

4 minutes ago, LambchoP said:

Obers been great, real fun to watch. I'd still like to see him pitch like he did against Detroit while facing some of the better teams in the league before I'm completely sold. I really think Rocco needs to do something to keep Lopez, Ryan and Ober fresh for the postseason. If we make it there of course. I like the idea of trying out Varland, Dobnak and Paddack if we get him back as long relief guys. We have to find a way to keep our starters fresh and healthy without blowing out our bullpen.

1 hit over 8 innings is a tall order against a AAA Team IMO ……..3.17 over 19 consecutive starts - some good teams and some bad ones, yes - pretty good numbers!! Every other pitcher in MLB that Ober is compared to pitches against good teams and bad teams as well!

[Jocko87]

You better ™️ that Oct-Ober thing while you still have a chance.

[arby58]

I've been high on Ober for a long time and have often made the case that Ober's stats aligned pretty well with Gray's last year (other than ERA, where his was still quite good). 

Turns out that is the case this year as well:

Ober 1.8 WAR (Gray 1.1), 10-5 (Gray 10-6) 3.76 ERA (Gray 3.79), 115 Ks (Gray 111), WHIP 1.009 (Gray 1.101). Yep, the Twins found their replacement for Sonny. Now if SWR is the replacement for last year's Ober, they'll be fine.

[jimbo92107]

Ober is becoming what I hoped he'd be - an innings eating horse with a low ERA. In other words, an excellent MLB starting pitcher. He has found his place, ironed out his rough edges, figured out an optimal workout routine. 

Best of all, he shows calm confidence on the mound. He completely trusts his stuff, and it's working. He's spotting his heater really well, and he has refined his changeup, getting tons of whiffs. Hitters will of course try to lay off his change, but it's a hard assignment, as his arm action is the same as his fastball. 

[bean5302]

8 minutes ago, arby58 said:

I've been high on Ober for a long time and have often made the case that Ober's stats aligned pretty well with Gray's last year (other than ERA, where his was still quite good). 

Turns out that is the case this year as well:

Ober 1.8 WAR (Gray 1.1), 10-5 (Gray 10-6) 3.76 ERA (Gray 3.79), 115 Ks (Gray 111), WHIP 1.009 (Gray 1.101). Yep, the Twins found their replacement for Sonny. Now if SWR is the replacement for last year's Ober, they'll be fine.

Yeah, that's some optimism there. Gray had a 3.34 ERA at the break, and he's had a couple rough starts in a row. His FIP is still light years ahead of Ober. Take a look at their game log FIPs and you'll see a stark difference between the two. Gray goes out and consistently puts up FIPs which line up with ace level performance (low 3s or below). 13 of Gray's 19 starts have an FIP of 3.33 or lower. 8 of Ober's 20 starts are like that. 

Ober is pitching well this year, and especially lately with the help of some positive regression. A big key to Ober's improvement is being more efficient. He's getting deeper into games than last year with similar pitch counts. He's not in the same category as Gray, and I don't think he'll get there. That said, Ober looks a little improved over last year and he's making the case to be a playoff starter.

[1985Fan]

2 hours ago, JD-TWINS said:

3.17 ERA over last 19 starts (omitting only his 1st start) …….to me, that’s a broad enough sample size to have confidence in him against any line-up in the League……..his dominance reaches back further than Detroit’s mediocre line-up.

Last year Ryan was much better at home so they set him up to start at Target…….this year, I think it’s the reverse. Depending upon where we play & when, relative to rest, Ober could be Game 1 or Game 2 starter. Rocco loves continuity, so Lopez - Ryan - Ober is most likely, obviously. No doubt, if they are active, Ober will pitch

I’m not arguing that Ober hasn’t put up good numbers this year. He’s pitched like a top of the rotation guy. The postseason is different. His postseason history is limited, but not good. Manager didn’t have confidence in him last year. We’ll see how he does in the playoffs (if they make it) this year before he’s anointed ace. Regular season numbers are great, but pitching well in the postseason is a different thing….

[arby58]

3 hours ago, bean5302 said:

Yeah, that's some optimism there. Gray had a 3.34 ERA at the break, and he's had a couple rough starts in a row. 

Isn't that a bit of rationalization? If mine is optimism fill in the blank on what yours is - 'a couple rough starts in a row' is not relevant? And what about the WAR? Ober's 1.8 to 1.1 is certainly relevant.

[arby58]

32 minutes ago, 1985Fan said:

I’m not arguing that Ober hasn’t put up good numbers this year. He’s pitched like a top of the rotation guy. The postseason is different. His postseason history is limited, but not good. Manager didn’t have confidence in him last year. We’ll see how he does in the playoffs (if they make it) this year before he’s anointed ace. Regular season numbers are great, but pitching well in the postseason is a different thing….

I don't think he has been appointed the ace, although his 89 pitch complete game was pretty impressive. I still think Lopez is the guy you send out there for game one of a play-off series, and his recent results suggest he has 'figured it out' compared to earlier in the year. Ober as a legitimate number two sounds right. Last year, I think the 'lost confidence' was an innings fatigue thing. Now he's stretched out.

[Mike Sixel]

Dude has been great this year, and deserves all kinds of praise.

[arby58]

2 hours ago, LambchoP said:

Obers been great, real fun to watch. I'd still like to see him pitch like he did against Detroit while facing some of the better teams in the league before I'm completely sold. I really think Rocco needs to do something to keep Lopez, Ryan and Ober fresh for the postseason. If we make it there of course. I like the idea of trying out Varland, Dobnak and Paddack if we get him back as long relief guys. We have to find a way to keep our starters fresh and healthy without blowing out our bullpen.

You've got to get there before you worry about the play-offs. The Twins are still in a fight for the play-offs. This isn't the time for experimentation. 

[JD-TWINS]

1 hour ago, 1985Fan said:

I’m not arguing that Ober hasn’t put up good numbers this year. He’s pitched like a top of the rotation guy. The postseason is different. His postseason history is limited, but not good. Manager didn’t have confidence in him last year. We’ll see how he does in the playoffs (if they make it) this year before he’s anointed ace. Regular season numbers are great, but pitching well in the postseason is a different thing….

I realize you state his Post-season is limited……4 1/3 innings is almost non-existent. My point is we all here get excited about other’s stats without picking them apart - i.e. Sonny Gray, etc. ………I didn’t call Ober an ACE as I think there may only be 10 in all of baseball. He’s very good - consistent for the most part. EVERYONE pitches against weak opponents………Ober’s successful numbers are spread over 19 starts so somebody in there had a capable line-up or maybe 8?

[Blyleven2011]

Sit back and relax , televised games are coming to those that are not streaming , Ober's fine and stretched out to go the distance  ...

He definitely is pitching better than Ryan  , Ryan is still fun to watch too , and with Lopez ,  our 3 top starters match up good ....

[bean5302]

3 hours ago, arby58 said:

Isn't that a bit of rationalization? If mine is optimism fill in the blank on what yours is - 'a couple rough starts in a row' is not relevant? And what about the WAR? Ober's 1.8 to 1.1 is certainly relevant.

It's not a rationalization. Also, there's more than 1 version of WAR, and the exact opposite happens when you look at fWAR.

[arby58]

1 hour ago, bean5302 said:

It's not a rationalization. Also, there's more than 1 version of WAR, and the exact opposite happens when you look at fWAR.

Dismissing the latest starts for a pitcher when they don't match your take on that pitcher is the epitome statistical rationalization. Meanwhile, you really should write to Baseball-Reference.com and tell them the headline stats they quote for pitchers are all wrong. 

[D.C Twins]

Hopefully making the leap to elite like another tall pitcher did once upon a time....

(Randy Johnson... It took a bit for him be elite but when he did....)

[Hosken Bombo Disco]

Ober has pitched 4 of his 20 starts against Detroit, a minor league rag tag of misfits if there ever was one. There are other low-caliber opponents in his game log too. He does have great command. I would guess his third time through numbers a good, too. If he finishes the season strong, we can maybe say that he is very, very, very, very, very exceptional.

I would be comfortable preparing Ober to pitch in a playoff game with a good game plan, against whoever.