Bailey Ober Has Gone From Exceptional to Very Exceptional

Fantastic article. Bailey Ober is certainly worthy of praise and recognition for his work.

Excellence is incredibly difficult to maintain as a starting pitcher. In any given outing a starter will struggle with at least one pitch and face choices about how to shift strategy from what pitches are working at the time. This is often why some good starters are vulnerable in the first inning or two but then settle into a groove as they find a rhythm.

Ober benefits from his command and control of numerous pitches over sheer velocity. Whereas Gerrit Cole may get away with a high 90s fastball while he works to manage his repertoire, Ober needs to navigate at speeds where his mistakes may disappear over a fence. It is a credit to Ober's confidence and mental toughness that he has kept to his game plan with such consistency and tunneled his pitches so effectively, keeping the ball off of the barrel.

Ober has been exceptional this year. He seems like he could pitch all day. Bert Blyleven must be thinking that Ober should throw 125+ pitches every game. He might be right. I sure hope Bailey finishes the year strong because he is one of my favorite pitchers in baseball to watch. Every starting pitcher will have bad days though as seen by a recent tough outing from Logan Gilbert. The Twins are lucky to have Ober and I expect him to start in the playoffs.

The real gauge of how good Ober is should be how has he fared against the really good hitters and teams. It was great to see him dominate Detroit, but they’re not a playoff team. The good to great hitters and playoff teams are going to determine the caliber of pitcher he is. How will he do against Cleveland? If the Twins make the playoffs, he should get a chance to pitch against NYY, Orioles, or whoever they play. 

40 minutes ago, 1985Fan said:

he should get a chance to pitch against NYY, Orioles, or whoever they play. 

Yes, he should. He's earned it. Of course, he would have to, regardless. The rotation wasn't fortified with options.

Timely article Nick. It's something that has plagued most fans' thoughts, Are Ryan & Ober going to step up & fill that void left by Gray? Ryan has over-shadowed Ober because of his stuff & hype so Ober has been overlooked. But Ryan has been plagued by the HR ball & his difficulty against elite line-ups. Ober has been quietly proving himself against the powerhouse PHI & now against the hot NYM. You have convinced me Nick, that Ober is a viable postseason SP. My main concern now is to keep Ober fresh & avoid any wearing down or injury coming into the postseason. That should be the focus with the entire rotation & BP. Bring up Varland & use Dobber a lot in long relief. I know it isn't Baldelli's thing but it needs to be.

13 minutes ago, Doctor Gast said:

Timely article Nick. It's something that has plagued most fans' thoughts, Are Ryan & Ober going to step up & fill that void left by Gray? Ryan has over-shadowed Ober because of his stuff & hype so Ober has been overlooked. But Ryan has been plagued by the HR ball & his difficulty against elite line-ups. Ober has been quietly proving himself against the powerhouse PHI & now against the hot NYM. You have convinced me Nick, that Ober is a viable postseason SP. My main concern now is to keep Ober fresh & avoid any wearing down or injury coming into the postseason. That should be the focus with the entire rotation & BP. Bring up Varland & use Dobber a lot in long relief. I know it isn't Baldelli's thing but it needs to be.

With lack of real depth in SP. How do the Twins go about keeping their starters fresh  and avoid any wearing down when they'll be fighting to get in the playoffs? You might give SWR an extra day off or whoever is going to be the 5th starter. But Ober Ryan and Lopez won't be afforded that luxury. 

24 minutes ago, Schmoeman5 said:

With lack of real depth in SP. How do the Twins go about keeping their starters fresh  and avoid any wearing down when they'll be fighting to get in the playoffs? You might give SWR an extra day off or whoever is going to be the 5th starter. But Ober Ryan and Lopez won't be afforded that luxury. 

Timely article Nick. It's something that has plagued most fans' thoughts, Are Ryan & Ober going to step up & fill that void left by Gray? Ryan has over-shadowed Ober because of his stuff & hype so Ober has been overlooked. But Ryan has been plagued by the HR ball & his difficulty against elite line-ups. Ober has been quietly proving himself against the powerhouse PHI & now against the hot NYM. You have convinced me Nick, that Ober is a viable postseason SP. My main concern now is to keep Ober fresh & avoid any wearing down or injury coming into the postseason. That should be the focus with the entire rotation & BP. Bring up Varland & use Dobber a lot in long relief. I know it isn't Baldelli's thing but it needs to be.

Spot starting/ long relief goes a long way. We have Dobber, Varland, Festa, Sands, Paddack when he comes back and we can also find pitchers on the waiver-wire & could sign a Rich Hill who could also do the job. The idea is cutting back innings not only skipped games. The focus should not be only the moment but the big picture, which is more quality innings & being injury free

When Ober's good, he' very good; when he's bad, he's horrible.

15 GS allowing 3 R or less - 94 IP, 21 ER, 2.01 ERA, 9 HR, 104/22 K/BB, team record 9-6

5 GS allowing 4 R or more - 20 IP, 27 ER, 12.15 ERA, 8 HR, 17/5 K/BB, team record 2-3

Great read, Nick, thanks.

Add me to those who believe Ober has replaced Sonny as a solid #2.  Question remains how he will fare in September and whether or not the Twins can get him a few starts off?

Is important that the Twins skip his start when playing in Kansas City.

Obers been great, real fun to watch. I'd still like to see him pitch like he did against Detroit while facing some of the better teams in the league before I'm completely sold. I really think Rocco needs to do something to keep Lopez, Ryan and Ober fresh for the postseason. If we make it there of course. I like the idea of trying out Varland, Dobnak and Paddack if we get him back as long relief guys. We have to find a way to keep our starters fresh and healthy without blowing out our bullpen.

Ober is becoming what I hoped he'd be - an innings eating horse with a low ERA. In other words, an excellent MLB starting pitcher. He has found his place, ironed out his rough edges, figured out an optimal workout routine. 

Best of all, he shows calm confidence on the mound. He completely trusts his stuff, and it's working. He's spotting his heater really well, and he has refined his changeup, getting tons of whiffs. Hitters will of course try to lay off his change, but it's a hard assignment, as his arm action is the same as his fastball. 

2 hours ago, JD-TWINS said:

3.17 ERA over last 19 starts (omitting only his 1st start) …….to me, that’s a broad enough sample size to have confidence in him against any line-up in the League……..his dominance reaches back further than Detroit’s mediocre line-up.

Last year Ryan was much better at home so they set him up to start at Target…….this year, I think it’s the reverse. Depending upon where we play & when, relative to rest, Ober could be Game 1 or Game 2 starter. Rocco loves continuity, so Lopez - Ryan - Ober is most likely, obviously. No doubt, if they are active, Ober will pitch

I’m not arguing that Ober hasn’t put up good numbers this year. He’s pitched like a top of the rotation guy. The postseason is different. His postseason history is limited, but not good. Manager didn’t have confidence in him last year. We’ll see how he does in the playoffs (if they make it) this year before he’s anointed ace. Regular season numbers are great, but pitching well in the postseason is a different thing….

Sit back and relax , televised games are coming to those that are not streaming , Ober's fine and stretched out to go the distance  ...

He definitely is pitching better than Ryan  , Ryan is still fun to watch too , and with Lopez ,  our 3 top starters match up good ....

Hopefully making the leap to elite like another tall pitcher did once upon a time....

(Randy Johnson... It took a bit for him be elite but when he did....)