Make It Official! Twins Claim Independence and the Series from King Kenta and the Tigers

[Steven Trefz]

The Twins moved their Independence Day rubber match against the Tigers up an hour in hopes of beating the rain. Not only did they beat the rain, but they beat old friend Kenta Maeda to win their fourth straight series. Here's how the celebratory fireworks took flight.

Image courtesy of © Matt Blewett-USA TODAY Sports

Box Score
SP: Bailey Ober - 6 IP, 7 H, 1 ER, 0 BB, 8 K (103 pitches, 77 strikes (75% Strikes)
Home Runs: Ryan Jeffers (14)
Top 3 WPA: Max Kepler .281, José Miranda .264, Ryan Jeffers .064

Win Probability Chart (via FanGraphs)

Tigers Roar Early Against Ober
After finding their groove against David Festa last evening, Detroit wasted little time capitalizing on Ober's off-speed pitches and sloppy Twins defense. Colt Keith pulled an 0-2 slider into the right-center upper deck to stake the Tigers to a 1-0 lead in the top of the first inning. After Maeda mowed down the Twins in order in the bottom half of the first, Ober thought he had turned a 1-2-3 second inning of his own, but Ryan Jeffers allowed strike three to Zach McKinstry to reach the backstop. Former Twin Gio Urshela dumped a single to right to put runners on the corners with two down. Jake Rogers and his .613 OPS then took a 2-2 changeup down the left field line to clear the bases, and put the Twins and Ober down 3-0. Drizzle or no drizzle, the Twins needed to get the bats going, or else this series was going to get washed down the drain.

Twins Can Hit in the Rain Too! 
Back in April, King Kenta reigned against his former club by going six innings and only allowing one earned run. By the end of the second inning today, Maeda ran into double trouble. Jose Miranda laced a leadoff double to the wall in left-center, and had no problem scoring on Jeffers' rope double down the left field line. Max Kepler kept the the line moving with a single, and Brooks Lee's second career RBI came via a fly-out to deep right field. The Twins were suddenly back in the contest, important on a day where a rain-shortened game was definitely in the forecast.

Which Starter Will Make the Adjustments?
Ober cruised through the top of the third, while Maeda stalled out in the bottom. The inning started innocently enough, with a Willi Castro ground out. After a Carlos Correa single up the middle, a Trevor Larnach walk, and a Miranda "excuse me” single to third, the Twins had the bases loaded and a chance to take the lead with the wind picking up and the clouds rolling in. Jeffers struck out without ever seeing an actual strike, however, and the pressure system all fell upon Max Kepler to deliver. Deliver he did, guiding a 82 mph sweeper through the hole on the left side of the diamond to put the Twins up 4-3. Manuel Margot continued the contact-making theme of the inning, rolling a 74.6 mph bouncer off of Maeda's lunging glove to plate Miranda and make it 5-3 Twins.

That stall out became complete engine failure for Maeda, as the hard-hit rate increased in the bottom of the fourth. After getting Austin Martin and Castro easily, Maeda lost Correa to a walk on a full count, and Larnach took a four pitch walk. A.J. Hinch stuck with his starter, and Miranda stuck with crushing the ball.

The hits kept on coming for the home team, as Jeffers took an 0-2 splitter even further down the left field line this time to extend the Twins home run streak to 22 games, and pushing the lead to 9-3.

The Race is On
The only question that remained was whether or not Ober could make quick enough work of the top of the Tiger's lineup in the top of the fifth inning in order to make this game officially count as the lightning moved camera operators to safety and fans started opening their favorite weather apps. Two strike outs helped, two bleeding singles didn’t, and there were two on and two out for Wenceel Perez as fans began to head for shelter. Perez also headed for shelter, after weakly grounding out to Miranda at first base to end the threat and to set up a potential victory.

Rumors of getting rained out after five innings were greatly exagerrated...and the game slid on into the sixth, with Ober taming the Tigers in order. Lefty Joey Wentz stayed in the game, which brought Carlos Santana in to replace Larnach from the right side of the plate. Santana walked, Miranda singled to make it a 4-for-4 day, and Jeffers found success again with a slightly shorter blast. The grounder tipped off of Wentz's glove and died in the grass while Santana scampered home. A wild throw to first plated Miranda, and the Twins now found themselves coasting to a 11-3 advantage. In the bottom of the seventh, Miranda found himself up again, and he crushed again, scoring Kyle Farmer with another ringing double. 

Tarpaulin on terra firma finally look place a few batters later, and the game's conclusion came early with a 12-3 Twins win in seven innings.

What’s Next? 
The Twins host the Astros Friday night to kick off what should be a great summer series at Target Field. Pablo Lopez (8-6, 4.88 ERA) looks to get the weekend started off right, while the streaking Houston squad will put forward righty Shawn Dubin (1-1, 4.91 ERA) in an opener role. First pitch is scheduled for 7:10pm CT.

Postgame Interview 

 Bullpen Usage Sheet

	SUN	MON	TUE	WED	THU	TOT
Funderburk	10	0	0	37	0	47
Durán	19	0	13	0	0	32
Sands	15	0	0	0	14	29
Thielbar	16	0	0	9	0	25
Okert	16	0	0	0	0	16
Alcalá	0	0	15	0	0	15
Jax	0	0	14	0	0	14
Staumont	0	0	0	13	0	13

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[BH67]

The moment when I believed today’s win was coming happened in the third inning, when Trevor Larnach battled for an eight-pitch walk against Kenta Maeda. The former Twin was overwhelmed thereafter.

Bailey Ober has averaged 67.5 strikes in his last four appearances. After the second inning today he was in full control. His trajectory is encouraging. And the high-leverage bullpen is fully available on two days’ rest for the surging Astros.

The Twins have won six of their last seven series, and their bats continue to be hot against pitching more formidable than what they faced in middle and late June. This is fun.

The Reds swept three from the Yankees in the Bronx. The Pinstripes have lost 13 of 17.
 

[FlyingFinn]

On the post-game radio show, it was mentioned that a transaction is probably coming. Was that simply the Diego Castillo signing (Jordan Balovozic signing with Korea) transacations in St. Paul or something with the Twins? They never said.

Edit: Matt Bowman signed again as well and on the Saints.

[Doctor Gast]

Ober had a little trouble again at the start of the game but again settled in & pitched excellently after that. It's nice to win these blowout games but winning the close ones is what really counts.

[Danchat]

Nice rebound win, feels like its been a long time they've lost a series to an inferior team.

Maeda has been pretty brutal for the Tigers, unfortunate to see but not super surprising. The dude is almost 37 now...

 

[IndianaTwin]

22 minutes ago, FlyingFinn said:

On the post-game radio show, it was mentioned that a transaction is probably coming. Was that simply the Diego Castillo signing (Jordan Balovozic signing with Korea) transacations in St. Paul or something with the Twins? They never said.

After last night, I wonder if Festa will get another start in this stint.

Paddack would be eligible to come off the IL by the time that spot comes up Monday. That spot comes up twice (8th and 14th) before the All-Star Break. Assuming Paddack has had the rest he needs, I would make that change.

[FlyingFinn]

14 minutes ago, IndianaTwin said:

After last night, I wonder if Festa will get another start in this stint.

Paddack would be eligible to come off the IL by the time that spot comes up Monday. That spot comes up twice (8th and 14th) before the All-Star Break. Assuming Paddack has had the rest he needs, I would make that change.

True, that could happen. But if the transaction is happening for tomorrow, I'm thinking Winder or Boushley come up for Festa and the Twins wait until Monday to add Paddack, sending Winder or Boushley back down to the Saints. Guess it could be Dobnak or Jackson as well (would need a 40 man roster spot though) and then they DFA them since nobody wants to claim them and pay their salary.

Edit: Indeed you are correct on Festa. The St. Paul transactions show him optioned to the Saints.

[IndianaTwin]

1 minute ago, FlyingFinn said:

True, that could happen. But if the transaction is happening for tomorrow, I'm thinking Winder or Boushley come up for Festa and the Twins wait until Monday to add Paddack, sending Winder or Boushley back down to the Saints. Guess it could be Dobnak or Jackson as well and then they DFA them since nobody wants to claim them and pay their salary.

Yes. I didn't go into the detail of looking for who would get that short-term gig, but you've named a couple possibilities. 

[Teflon]

Twins pitchers today: 11 strikeouts, 0 walks.

Twins batters today:   5 strikeouts, 6 walks.

[IndianaTwin]

29 minutes ago, FlyingFinn said:

True, that could happen. But if the transaction is happening for tomorrow, I'm thinking Winder or Boushley come up for Festa and the Twins wait until Monday to add Paddack, sending Winder or Boushley back down to the Saints. Guess it could be Dobnak or Jackson as well (would need a 40 man roster spot though) and then they DFA them since nobody wants to claim them and pay their salary.

Edit: Indeed you are correct on Festa. The St. Paul transactions show him optioned to the Saints.

With a corresponding move the other direction? 

I think I heard the Twins say they wouldn't use off days to get extra starts for people, but if you're going to do that, now is the time. With a bullpen game on Monday, they could get to the All-Star Break while still resting Paddack: 

• 30th: Ryan
• 1st: Off
• 2nd: SWR
• 3rd: Festa
• 4th: Ober (today)
• 5th: Lopez
• 6th: Ryan
• 7th: SWR
• 8th: Bullpen
• 9th: Ober
• 10th: Lopez
• 11th: Off (to celebrate my mother's 92nd birthday)
• 12th: Ryan
• 13th: SWR
• 14th: Ober

If they indeed bring back Paddack for the 8th, he'd get the 13th, SWR the 14th and Ober isn't needed until after the break. I'm not sure it's worth it, unless Paddack truly isn't ready to go. 

[jmlease1]

What a great game by Miranda! He's definitely playing like he never wants to go back to AAA. Good to see Kepler get a couple of knocks as well; he'd been scrabbling for a while. The offense really picked it up.

Just keep winning series, boys. If they keep on that path they'll be in the playoffs and be a team to contend. You can't control what Cleveland or anyone else is doing, so just keep winning series. 

Brooks Lee doesn't look scared, either. Keep it up, make the decision as hard as possible mah dude.

[Parfigliano]

35 minutes ago, FlyingFinn said:

True, that could happen. But if the transaction is happening for tomorrow, I'm thinking Winder or Boushley come up for Festa and the Twins wait until Monday to add Paddack, sending Winder or Boushley back down to the Saints. Guess it could be Dobnak or Jackson as well (would need a 40 man roster spot though) and then they DFA them since nobody wants to claim them and pay their salary.

Edit: Indeed you are correct on Festa. The St. Paul transactions show him optioned to the Saints.

Festa earned the AAA demotion

[IndianaTwin]

4 minutes ago, Parfigliano said:

Festa earned the AAA demotion

I think he earned both the promotion and the demotion. He pitched well enough to get the opportunity when Paddack needed rest. He showed bright spots, but not enough to stay. In the long run, it's nice for him to have gotten a looksee, experience the bigs and get some reinforcement of what he needs to work on. The team split his two starts, so it didn't really cost them. 

[stringer bell]

1 hour ago, Danchat said:

Maeda has been pretty brutal for the Tigers, unfortunate to see but not super surprising. The dude is almost 37 now...

 

I think there’s a good chance that Maeda is taken out of Detroit’s rotation and a greater than zero chance they let him go. I thought the Twins should try to keep him, but he might be cooked. 

[bean5302]

1 hour ago, IndianaTwin said:

I think he earned both the promotion and the demotion. He pitched well enough to get the opportunity when Paddack needed rest. He showed bright spots, but not enough to stay. In the long run, it's nice for him to have gotten a looksee, experience the bigs and get some reinforcement of what he needs to work on. The team split his two starts, so it didn't really cost them. 

I don't agree with him earning the promotion. He got the promotion because it was time to check him out against MLB hitters, not because he forced his way onto the roster. Festa was highly inconsistent with a lot of red flags with the Saints. Unlike Woods-Richardson, though, Festa's stuff just didn't play.

Unfortunately for Festa, I don't think he was auditioning for next year or some point in the future. In my opinion, Paddack was probably slated to go to the bullpen if Festa pitched well, and the very rare opportunity wasn't capitalized.

I say the opportunity was so rare because it represented potentially the second permanent shift in the depth chart, sending a MiLB to supplant a veteran. Varland lost his job to SWR, and Paddack could very well have lost his job to Festa.

The best news for the Twins is they've now seen Varland and Festa in the rotation, and they should have a good feel for the likelihood they'll be able to count on those guys as rotation depth for the future. My opinion is a solid "no." There are other options in the MiLB system like Matthews and Morris who are already in the upper minors and seeing their stock rise fast with consistent domination.

[DocBauer]

Ober has been looking very good, and did again today. One bad pitch really his only blemish. Hard to say anything about about an error that suddenly extended an inning and you're half in the dugout, (mentally), and have to suddenly compose yourself again. Great game.

Miranda already better than his rookie version and still getting better.

Jeffers has broken out of his slump? Has Kepler?

Sands worked a phenomenal inning and struck out the side on 14 total pitches, and that was with having to face a 4th man due to the Correa drop. He's the only pen arm that pitched today. That's a little extra benefit from the game being called after 7.

But as bad as that field was, game should have been delayed and called a full inning before it was. Someone could have been hurt out there...and Jeffers almost was.

[bean5302]

1 hour ago, stringer bell said:

I think there’s a good chance that Maeda is taken out of Detroit’s rotation and a greater than zero chance they let him go. I thought the Twins should try to keep him, but he might be cooked. 

Not with another year on his contract and and a solid history out of the 'pen. Maeda's velocity is down again this year. That doesn't play well for him. He needs that FB averaging 91-92 to be great. That said, he's given them about 50% solid starts this year, and some blow ups as well. They're only paying him back end rotation money so it's not that bad.

[Dman]

I really wanted the Twins to keep Maeda as the 5th starter and was bummed when Detroit got him.  I really thought a bounce back was coming for him, but he has only regressed.  He got dinked and dunked some today with hard hits in between and a Jeffers homer that barely cleared the shortest path out.  Still he looks far from from dominant.  SWR turned out to be a much better replacement production and salary wise for the Twins.

Miranda and Correa both hitting .300.  Who would have thought that after last years numbers. Some real good at bats today and nice to see something good happen with the bases loaded.

As others have said just keep winning series and we'll be OK.

[Joe A. Preusser]

If Detroit wants to move on from Maeda I'd send a low A prospect over for him.  Then we could slow him down and acclimate him to the pen again.  Worth the flier?

[FlyingFinn]

27 minutes ago, Joe A. Preusser said:

If Detroit wants to move on from Maeda I'd send a low A prospect over for him.  Then we could slow him down and acclimate him to the pen again.  Worth the flier?

No. And the Twins will never do it because of the salary. Now, if the Tigers release him, I can certainly see the Twins taking a shot at Maeda for the minimum salary.

[Dman]

26 minutes ago, Joe A. Preusser said:

If Detroit wants to move on from Maeda I'd send a low A prospect over for him.  Then we could slow him down and acclimate him to the pen again.  Worth the flier?

The Twins won't want to take on the salary and he signed for 10M or so next year which is why the Twins didn't sign him this year. They only wanted him on a one year deal. They were hoping Varland or SWR would be ready for that 5th starter spot and SWR seems to have taken it.  They will find cheaper options for the pen.

Also his fastball velo is down which is making his breaking balls less affective as hitters can wait back on the off-speed and breakers and still not be late on the fastball.  I think he might be cooked.  Tigers should give him some time off and maybe he comes back stronger. If not it looks like they got him when he fell off the table.

[Richie the Rally Goat]

14 hours ago, Doctor Gast said:

Ober had a little trouble again at the start of the game but again settled in & pitched excellently after that. It's nice to win these blowout games but winning the close ones is what really counts.

A Win is a Win. No style points.

Agreed on Ober, awesome to see him settle down as the game progressed!

[Whitey333]

Way to go Twins.  That's the way to take series against poor teams.  I'm hoping we can do well against the red hot Astros as our record against winning teams continues to be atrocious.   Go Twins.

[LambchoP]

Ober and Pablo have been stellar last few starts. If we could only swing s trade for one more playoff caliber starter I think we'll be legit contenders!

[awmonahan]

I think Ober will be just fine, as long as he avoids KC. It's seems like they have some Intel on him, ever since we lost an assistant pitching coach to them. 

[JD-TWINS]

Jeffers had a nice day Thursday - was looking at his stats and noticed Santana and handful of others having really solid first halves - nothing surprising to any here:

Jeffers 30 XBH - 126 OPS+
Castro 33 XBH - 125 OPS+
Correa 28 XBH - 151 OPS+
Miranda 28 XBH - 151 OPS+
Santana 27 XBH - 113 OPS+
Buxton 26 XBH - 119 OPS+

Lee & Lewis both are capable of this range of performance!

Solid Core along with Larnach - Kepler - Martin - Margot around the periphery.

Room for Vazquez for sure  - Farmer, maybe not much longer?

Any offensive upgrades seem to be fools errand.

[Road trip]

14 hours ago, bean5302 said:

The best news for the Twins is they've now seen Varland and Festa in the rotation, and they should have a good feel for the likelihood they'll be able to count on those guys as rotation depth for the future. My opinion is a solid "no." There are other options in the MiLB system like Matthews and Morris who are already in the upper minors and seeing their stock rise fast with consistent domination.

While I agree that Varland is more likely a bullpen candidate than future rotation depth, I think it is way too early to determine a "solid no" on Festa.  His underlying metrics weren't nearly as bad as his results (for example: 8 to 1 SO/W).

Any organization unwilling to give young starters more than 2 starts will almost never be able to develop a starting pitcher.  Sending Festa down now for further development is appropriate, but I certainly expect to see him get another opportunity this year or next.

[joefish]

16 hours ago, Doctor Gast said:

Ober had a little trouble again at the start of the game but again settled in & pitched excellently after that. It's nice to win these blowout games but winning the close ones is what really counts.

A win is a win. Close game or blowout. Take them all.

[Patzky]

Josh Winder was recalled today from St Paul; David Festa sent down. Who will get the start at Post-Comiskey?

[JD-TWINS]

16 hours ago, IndianaTwin said:

With a corresponding move the other direction? 

I think I heard the Twins say they wouldn't use off days to get extra starts for people, but if you're going to do that, now is the time. With a bullpen game on Monday, they could get to the All-Star Break while still resting Paddack: 

• 30th: Ryan
• 1st: Off
• 2nd: SWR
• 3rd: Festa
• 4th: Ober (today)
• 5th: Lopez
• 6th: Ryan
• 7th: SWR
• 8th: Bullpen
• 9th: Ober
• 10th: Lopez
• 11th: Off (to celebrate my mother's 92nd birthday)
• 12th: Ryan
• 13th: SWR
• 14th: Ober

If they indeed bring back Paddack for the 8th, he'd get the 13th, SWR the 14th and Ober isn't needed until after the break. I'm not sure it's worth it, unless Paddack truly isn't ready to go. 

As of this morning it looks like Paddack stays out of the mix for another 2 weeks.

Also, apparently Winder gets a spot start on the 8th……,maybe they option Funderburk for a Boushley start on the 8th? Maybe it’s a Pen game with Winder/Funderburk/Sands?

Good for Paddack to stay somewhat inactive as they’ll need another decent 6-8 weeks from him once he returns.