Twins 5, A's 6: Willi Castro Heroics go for Naught in Yet Another One-Run Loss

[Matt Braun]

On a scale from Kevin Jepsen to Ron Davis, Jhoan Duran is awfully close to being a Matt Capps. 

Image courtesy of © Stan Szeto - USA TODAY

Box Score
Chris Paddack: 4 ⅔ IP, 5 H, 3 ER, 3 BB, 3 K
Home Runs: Royce Lewis (10), Willi Castro (6)
Bottom 3 WPA: Jhoan Duran (-.560), Kody Funderburk (-.285), Manuel Margot (-.128)
Win Probability Chart (via FanGraphs)

Baseball in Oakland will soon be no more. This has been the reality for some time now, but for the Twins, that meant this series—an otherwise non-descript set in the middle of June—marks their final foray into the Oakland Coliseum. Their conquest over the A’s in 2002, forever immortalized thanks to Moneyball, soon to be a relic. The team in Sacramento will know no such pain. Whatever occurs in Oakland this weekend, a melancholic mood will follow the result—hopefully, it will support wins, not curse losses.

Friday began with a rematch: Chris Paddack vs Joey Estes. Neither man hung around for long last time; Minnesota’s righty turned in a dreadful performance last Sunday, exiting the game after just 2 ⅓ innings with five earned runs against him. Contact against him was not quiet. Estes, though, was basically just as bad; he netted one more out, but the trade-off coaxed an extra earned run from his ledger. 

This game—the one that could change the vibes for each respective hurler—teetered on becoming like the one from before: Paddack walked a season-high three batters over 4 ⅔ mildly effective innings, allowing a bevy of line drives and baserunners. Men were on base in almost every frame. Oakland hitters swung with confidence. The Texan’s line appeared passable for a time, but Kody Funderburk’s blunders in “relief” swelled Paddack’s earned run total from one to three. So it goes.

Minnesota had less luck against their opponent. Estes escaped their grasp whenever they tried to trap him. An early run seemed to begat a repeat of last week’s outing, but Estes slithered away from damage at almost every turn. Someone should have checked his pocket for a horseshoe. 

Of course, then he ran into Royce Lewis. The inevitable. The assumed. The predictable. Royce observed a sweeper on the outside corner before finding one spinning at the top of the zone; it didn’t touch down until it flew 380 feet away, just enough to give him his 10th homer of the year. In 16 games. 

That seemed to spark things for the tepid, sleepy Twins offense. They greeted Oakland reliever Austin Adams with a single and a walk to send the go-ahead run to the plate. That run—who has a name; Willi Castro—cracked a soaring, skyscraping flyball, holding just barely fair as it landed safely in the bleachers for a three-run homer. Twins lead. 

It appeared to be the clinching hit. If there ever was a blast to equalize things and establish order in the chaos, Castro's three-run homer should have been like Thanos' infamous snap. It was not. Jorge Alcalá worked a scoreless frame before Jhoan Duran entered in the 8th. The formerly dominant closer plunked a batter with a curveball, proving yet again that he is not the same reliever we could have once turned the TV off and assumed a win. He unleashed a splitter far less mean than before, and Shea Langeliers blasted a go-ahead two-run homer to left field. Mason Miller set the Twins down in order. Yet again, Minnesota nearly made a comeback but ultimately failed to escape themselves in an excruciating loss. 

Notes:

Carlos Santana played in his 2,000th career MLB game on Friday. 

Only four players have more home runs than Royce Lewis in their first 16 games of a season:

 

Willi Castro is slashing .290/.395/.478 in June.

Jorge Alcalá lowered his season ERA to 1.75 on Friday. 

Post-Game Interview:

What’s Next?
The Twins and Athletics will play the second game of their weekend series on Saturday, with first pitch coming at 3:07 PM. Bailey Ober will start opposite JP Sears. 

Bullpen Usage Spreadsheet

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[USAFChief]

We need a MLB manager.

[BH67]

"Jhoan Duran is awfully close to being a Matt Capps."

No. Just no.

[Peter]

The home runs and come backs don’t matter as we lost!!! You can’t lose games like this you just can’t!!! This is is make or break season defining road trip. Must have winning record!!! If this is how season will be I’d rather win 82 games and miss playoffs. I can’t stand the one run games and losses. I just can’t!!! I’d rather just get blown out as it would be way way way easier to deal with. 

[howeda7]

As great as Lewis is, this manager and front office continue to be so stubborn it's laughable. Leaving Wallner and Lee in the minors to cling to Margot and Farmer. Insisting on sitting Ryan Jeffers 50% of the time. It's just asinine. 

[bean5302]

It starts with Paddack struggling yet again. Also, today was technically Duran's first blown save this year despite not being as elite as expected.

I'd favor skipping Paddack's next start and moving him into the bullpen. I guess that probably brings up Varland in Paddack's rotation. I'd like to see Festa, but he just can't put together good starts reliably in AAA after being knocked around again yesterday so there's not really a good reason to believe he'd be much better than Varland at this point.

The Twins desperately need a high end starter.

[knothole61]

42 minutes ago, USAFChief said:

We need a MLB manager.

I agree!

Back in the day I had a "Bring Billy Back" sticker on the bumper of my car. For all his flaws and, for lack of a better word, tempestuousness, I loved Billy Martin's passion and intolerance of ineptitude. It seems to me that Baldelli is as close to the polar opposite of Martin as possible in a manager. He's cold blooded and calculating--a man of the ledger sheet who might have fared better as a tax accountant. Admittedly he does have his strengths, but of all the essential traits he is lacking, chief among them I believe is common sense.  

[Patzky]

3 hours ago, knothole61 said:

I agree!

Back in the day I had a "Bring Billy Back" sticker on the bumper of my car. For all his flaws and, for lack of a better word, tempestuousness, I loved Billy Martin's passion and intolerance of ineptitude.

It wasn't a Billy Gardner reference? 

[Whitey333]

Twins are giving up an awful lot of runs lately.  I also would prefer Lee and Wallner in place of Margot and Farmer.  This FO is so stubborn and unwilling to admit mistakes and move on from them.  We have a manager in Rocco that lacks common sense and managerial Instincts.  

I sure miss Cory Provus on radio.  The broadcasts have become a soap opera atmosphere.  Do they realize there is actually a game going on?

[DJL44]

People are clamoring for Brooks Lee but it's going to be quite difficult for him to come up and outproduce Willi Castro at 2B.

It's June 22 and Farmer has played in 8 games this month with a .952 OPS. Now that Lewis is back, Farmer is only playing part-time and he's producing in that role.

The infield is not the problem right now, in fact the infield is this team's strength. The pitching is the problem.

[tony&rodney]

The Twins are still playing ahead of their expected 83-87 wins projection. The current stretch of games to the All Star Game could be telling. 

It is looking like Funderburk does not pitch with confidence at times. Does the team need a reliable lefty in the bullpen and can Thielbar return to his former effective self? Right now the bullpen looks tired. A string of seven inning starts or an offense scoring more runs would help.

[Matt Braun]

8 hours ago, bean5302 said:

It starts with Paddack struggling yet again. Also, today was technically Duran's first blown save this year despite not being as elite as expected.

I'd favor skipping Paddack's next start and moving him into the bullpen. I guess that probably brings up Varland in Paddack's rotation. I'd like to see Festa, but he just can't put together good starts reliably in AAA after being knocked around again yesterday so there's not really a good reason to believe he'd be much better than Varland at this point.

The Twins desperately need a high end starter.

The pain of losing Sonny Gray. I miss him. 

[jmlease1]

8 hours ago, howeda7 said:

As great as Lewis is, this manager and front office continue to be so stubborn it's laughable. Leaving Wallner and Lee in the minors to cling to Margot and Farmer. Insisting on sitting Ryan Jeffers 50% of the time. It's just asinine. 

Jeffers is mired in a dreadful slump right now, with a .345 OPS in June. Vazquez has actually put up a .790 OPS in the same period. More importantly, Jeffers has played 63 out of 76 games this season, and has stayed healthy. Maybe not so asinine. Margot has turned it around and is putting up a .758 OPS in June as well. 

The idea that these are easy and simple decisions is what's laughable. If they cut Farmer and Lee dings his back again and is out for a month, how's that going to work? I'm pretty sure you'll be back railing on the front office for being stupid, stubborn, and clueless if they drop Margot and Wallner goes 3-24 with 14K's too.

Offense really isn't the problem right now: we scored 5. Paddack is looking like he needs a break, a reset, or maybe the league has figured out this iteration and he needs to make some serious adjustments. Funderburk not putting out the fire and Duran blowing one cost us the game, not Vazquez, Margot, or Farmer.

The pitching has to step up: we've given up 6 or more runs in 7 games in June, 5 or more in 12. That's not going to get it done. Offense has scored 5 or more in 8 of the last 9.

[DJL44]

38 minutes ago, jmlease1 said:

The idea that these are easy and simple decisions is what's laughable. If they cut Farmer and Lee dings his back again and is out for a month, how's that going to work? I'm pretty sure you'll be back railing on the front office for being stupid, stubborn, and clueless if they drop Margot and Wallner goes 3-24 with 14K's too.

There's a lot more depth in the outfield. The dropoff from Lee to Diego Castillo is pretty steep. If Wallner fails again they have more options (Kirilloff, Keirsey, Emma, Will Holland).

I think Wallner would have come up for Kepler except the Athletics are throwing LH starters and Wallner still can't hit lefties. Kepler is going to sit until the Diamondbacks series. If he's still not right on the 25th Wallner will get the call.

[rv78]

Rocco has never had common sense or managerial instincts. Without his analytics he'd be a lost puppy. If you haven't gotten use to the way things are, you'd better try or just quit watching, cause it's never going to change with this current regime in charge. It's who, what, and how they are, and when you believe you are the smartest people in the room, even though you've WON nothing worth bragging about in 8 years, they aren't going to change despite their failures. They'll always have an excuse. If it isn't injuries or limited payroll it'll be something else. It's not their fault they bring in poor players that can't hit or pitchers that are injured. Ha Ha! Just drink the kool-aid and be a believer.

[LambchoP]

Pitching is our weakness. I like the idea of moving Paddack in the bullpen and giving his rotation spot to Varland or Festa, with Zebby ready to go right behind them. We NEED to get an impact starter with control at the deadline like Luzardo or Crochet. We also need to dump Theilbar and get a solid lefty for our bullpen since we can't trust either Okert or Funderburk. Farmer and Margot should be gone too. Better options available in Saint Paul.

[Patzky]

42 minutes ago, DJL44 said:

There's a lot more depth in the outfield. The dropoff from Lee to Diego Castillo is pretty steep. If Wallner fails again they have more options (Kirilloff, Keirsey, Emma, Will Holland).

I think Wallner would have come up for Kepler except the Athletics are throwing LH starters and Wallner still can't hit lefties. Kepler is going to sit until the Diamondbacks series. If he's still not right on the 25th Wallner will get the call.

I agree, then the retroactive IL for Kepler as soon as the place takes off. Guess we'll see if Margot can get us through the weekend eh? And Pablo too for that matter. Here's to lots of foul territory for one last game.

[Road trip]

2 hours ago, jmlease1 said:

Jeffers is mired in a dreadful slump right now, with a .345 OPS in June. Vazquez has actually put up a .790 OPS in the same period. More importantly, Jeffers has played 63 out of 76 games this season, and has stayed healthy. Maybe not so asinine. Margot has turned it around and is putting up a .758 OPS in June as well. 

 

Margot had a nice little stretch the first 10 days of June.  Since the start of the Oakland series, he has 2 hits in 22 at bats.

No team that aspires to make the playoffs can send Margot out as a regular corner outfielder.  For the year he is at -.9 WAR, with an OPS+ of 70.  That's totally unacceptable for a left fielder (where, to top it off, his glove rates as terrible this year).

And how bad is Margot vs right handed pitching?  Worse than Vazquez...  .464 OPS compared to Vazquez's .484

[GCTF]

11 hours ago, Matt Braun said:

Ron Davis

 

He who shall never be forgiven must never be mentioned.

[JD-TWINS]

11 hours ago, Peter said:

The home runs and come backs don’t matter as we lost!!! You can’t lose games like this you just can’t!!! This is is make or break season defining road trip. Must have winning record!!! If this is how season will be I’d rather win 82 games and miss playoffs. I can’t stand the one run games and losses. I just can’t!!! I’d rather just get blown out as it would be way way way easier to deal with. 

Don’t watch.

[Blyleven2011]

12 hours ago, USAFChief said:

We need a MLB manager.

We need a new manager and a new front office  , boy are they stubborn when they're wrong  ...

[Doctor Gast]

3 hours ago, jmlease1 said:

Jeffers is mired in a dreadful slump right now, with a .345 OPS in June. Vazquez has actually put up a .790 OPS in the same period. More importantly, Jeffers has played 63 out of 76 games this season, and has stayed healthy. Maybe not so asinine. 

Vazquez has been constantly playing very good defense, it only makes sense for him to catch at least 50% of the time. And especially so when he's out-hitting Jeffers. As I said before Vazquez is Jeffers safety net. With the extra emotional & physical stress w/o Vazquez, Jeffers would be going into a tailspin that'll more than likely ends up in injury. I like Jeffers & hope he gets out of his slump soon. But don't underrate Vazquez.

[ashbury]

Duran coming out of the bullpen with no command against the first two batters he faced was pretty tough to take.  But Funderburk failing against the left handed batter before that was the killer.  You. Had. One. Job.

[JD-TWINS]

1 hour ago, Road trip said:

Margot had a nice little stretch the first 10 days of June.  Since the start of the Oakland series, he has 2 hits in 22 at bats.

No team that aspires to make the playoffs can send Margot out as a regular corner outfielder.  For the year he is at -.9 WAR, with an OPS+ of 70.  That's totally unacceptable for a left fielder (where, to top it off, his glove rates as terrible this year).

And how bad is Margot vs right handed pitching?  Worse than Vazquez...  .464 OPS compared to Vazquez's .484

Margot has hardly been a pleasing watch for Twin’s fans so far!……..however, citing failure early in the season (5-6 weeks) & then additional failure (last 5-6 games) leaves out the other 7 weeks……..he had a stretch from about May 20 - June 14 where he hit .371 over 23 games.

He’s hitting .280 v. LH pitching for the year - that’s his deal, along with outfield depth (not good) & pinch hitting (terrible)…..to be fair, he gets sent to the plate as a PH v. LH pitchers but then the opposition counters with RH pitching.

Really not his fault that Wallner and later Kirilloff fell flat on their faces at the plate. Margot is getting more reps because we’re short a LH bat that’s effective in the OF.

Lee up soon & at 2B lets the Team alleviate the problem by putting Castro back in the grass. Martin is also a better option, apparently, than Margot v. RH pitching.

[Rod Carews Birthday]

2 hours ago, rv78 said:

Rocco has never had common sense or managerial instincts. Without his analytics he'd be a lost puppy. If you haven't gotten use to the way things are, you'd better try or just quit watching, cause it's never going to change with this current regime in charge. It's who, what, and how they are, and when you believe you are the smartest people in the room, even though you've WON nothing worth bragging about in 8 years, they aren't going to change despite their failures. They'll always have an excuse. If it isn't injuries or limited payroll it'll be something else. It's not their fault they bring in poor players that can't hit or pitchers that are injured. Ha Ha! Just drink the kool-aid and be a believer.

You do realize (and I'm making an assumption here) that you have not ever been, nor likely will ever be a major league baseball manager, right?  Why do you suppose that is?

I'm also assuming that you know that the other teams are also trying to win too, right?  Everybody uses the dreaded "analytics", as people who do no analysis tend to lose about 80% of the time.  Everything in baseball is a case of the numbers working in your favor or not working in your favor.  Over the past 8 years, there have been playoff appearances and actual playoff victories.  It's not a finished perfect product, but I would consider that progress.  Please ask people in Oakland (and many other teams) if that is a "nothing".

[Doctor Gast]

They have managed Paddack wrong. When he was doing well at the beginning of the season, the attitude was let's see how far he can go. It should have been he's just came off 2nd TJ, we need to manage his innings. I've advocated at the beginning of the season to keep Varland in long relief & don't waste his bullets in AAA. Keep the short relief & the rotation well-rested. The rotation & BP have kept us in games at the beginning of the season but now look fatigued. Bring Varland up now! Maybe Paddack & others will bounce back. Our offense looks better

[bean5302]

4 hours ago, Matt Braun said:

The pain of losing Sonny Gray. I miss him. 

Yeah, I wouldn't mind his 2.95 ERA, 2.58 FIP, 2.76 xFIP right now. But he cost $10MM this year!!!! Falvey needed that money for Margot and Farmer. At least Santana is holding his own at this point... not that Miranda wouldn't still be better.

[Hosken Bombo Disco]

It’s time to move Duran back to the 9th inning closer role if that’s what he prefers. Let him throw his heat and let him be the guy.

So he will face the 7, 8, 9 guys sometimes. Who cares. That’s a good thing. That will get him to being a dominant figure again. 

He surrendered two runs last night before he even threw his fastball once. Good plan, good plan. /s

[TopGunn#22]

Technically Duran blew a "Hold" as he came in for the 8th inning and it wasn't a save situation unless he had come out to pitch the 9th as well. 

I agree with RV78 regarding our manager.  It's spreadsheet, spreadsheet, spreadsheet for Rocco.  I don't think I've ever seen him make a move that would have departed from his spreadsheet.  I once saw Billy Martin send Rich Reese up to pinch hit with the bases loaded in the 7th inning of a game against the Baltimore Orioles in 1969 with lefty Dave McNally on the mound going for what could have been a major league record 16th win in a row.  The lefty vs lefty matchup is something Rocco would NEVER do.  Reese hit a Grand Slam HR to deep left center field at the old Met Stadium, something Justin Morneau would refer to as an "oppo taco."  

At some point, a manager needs to "manage."  Not just glance at a spreadsheet and check a box.  

[bean5302]

So about whipping boys/scapegoats Farmer and Margot. There's an easy way to visualize how they've been expected to  perform at the plate over a rolling stretch of games. It takes into consideration how hard and far they've been hitting balls, how often they've struck out or taken walks. The rolling xwOBA on BaseballSavant.com, including all the good at bats you missed, and all the terrible at bats you remember.

You can clearly see Margot and Farmer have trended upwards recently over a rolling 100 plate appearances. I've added names and date ranges so people can visualize how the rolling xwOBA works. If you were to pick a dot directly above the date ranges, that's what the dot (point) on the line would represent. Farmer struggled to end last year, and his struggles continued into this year, but you can also see how sporadic his plate appearances have been this year. Both Farmer and Margot are holding their own right now. There's no good reason to ditch them at the moment. For the record, I despised, and still despise both moves in keeping Farmer, and bringing in Margot. Have to hope for 1 of 2 things.
1) They both tank over the next few weeks (worse outcome) while guys like Wallner/Lee continue to crush baseballs so Margot and Farmer can be DFA'd and replaced.
2) The both keep hitting better so their season values creep up over league average (best outcome) and they can be moved while guys like Wallner/Lee continue to crush baseballs. This outcome is better since the Twins win more games.

.