Where the Twins stand after (about) 60 games

[stringer bell]

The Twins play their 60th game tonight in New York and currently have a record of 33-26, good enough for third place in the AL Central, but currently on pace for a wild card berth in the playoffs. While the record is about what was expected at the start of the year, being in third place in the Central and trailing the leader by six games is disappointing and unexpected. The disappointment is enhanced by an 0-5 record against division-leading Cleveland, which accounts for most of their deficit in the standings. 

How did we get here? Let's look at the components. Hitting--The Twins are 12th in runs per game and have featured an inconsistent offense. When they started 7-13, the offense was historically bad, hitting well below .200 as a team and trailing all teams in runs scored. Their 12-game winning streak righted the ship statistically and moved them above average in key team stats, runs scored, OPS, homers and team batting average. Individual leaders are Ryan Jeffers, who has hit 13 homers and has a slugging percentage over .500 and Max Kepler, who came back hot from injury and has posted a .796 OPS for the season. The Twins are middle of the pack in home runs (64) after finishing tied for first in the AL in that category last year. Injuries and strict platooning have again limited individual numbers. with only two players (both switch hitters) having reached 200 plate appearances thus far. Pitching--The numbers say the pitching has taken a step back. The Twins rank 18th in team ERA and 14th in runs allowed per game. This comes despite the staff striking out hitters at the second highest rate per inning pitched and the second lowest walk rate in MLB. The long ball has been a culprit, they have allowed the fourth most home runs. Breaking it down further, the starting staff has delivered a good number of well-pitched games, but there have been more stinkers than last year and the top four all are vulnerable to long balls (44 allowed in 257 innings), The bullpen was wracked by injuries early and is still missing a couple of high-leverage arms. Their performance has been uneven, but the current group seems to have hit their stride as of late. Closer Jhoan Durán missed the first month of the season and seems to have (at least temporarily) lost some velocity. Defense--Measured by errors, this is one of the top teams in baseball. The team has been charged with only 23 errors in 59 games. We all know that is not the true measure of team defense--the team has run out some poor defenders and several with limited range. This was most in evidence when former platinum glove winners Byron Buxton and Carlos Correa were on the shelf. In general, the Twins are pretty sound defensively, but in their bad stretches, mental errors and weak throwing arms showed up at the worst times. One metric--outs above average is pretty kind to the Twins, but zone ratings send another message. Overall, I'd rate the Twins defense as decent, but not flashy (except for Correa and Buxton).

Performance factors that have come to light since Opening Day: Injuries--As noted earlier, the projected Twins' bullpen was hit by an epidemic of injury just before the season started. Four relievers were on the IL on Opening Day and two more have been added since. Three of the injured guys from the start of the season are back, so there is progress. On the position player side, Royce Lewis has missed all but a couple innings of the season so far.  He may or may not be the Twins' best player. He is certainly exciting and charismatic. Other key guys--Buxton, Correa, Kepler--have missed time, but are back. The Twins haven't had to use the IL in almost a month, a welcome respite, but after all the April injuries, it seems to have balanced out. Reinforcements--Two former top prospects (Jose Miranda and Trevor Larnach), who had fallen off the roster due to injury and substandard performance, were given another chance due to injury. Both have thrived. Larnach has an .803 OPS in over 100 plate appearances, while Miranda has put together a .780 OPS and played acceptable third base in Lewis' absence. Austin Martin also got his first taste of the major leagues. His results were mixed, probably highlighted by poor defense as an outfielder, despite the tools to be better than that. The bullpen has churned through several players, with mixed results. Newcomers Josh Staumont and Diego Castillo are currently in the bullpen and so far have looked good. Jorge Alcalá looks like his best self currently.

What lies ahead? While the Twins currently sit in position to make the playoffs, winning the Central would be the preferred way to advance in postseason. With over 100 games remaining, there is plenty of time to overtake both Cleveland and Kansas City. It will take much better performance against the Guardians and continued winning baseball against the Royals. Some key numbers are the home run disparity--last year the Twins hit 39 more homers than their opponents. This year they are at -10. Another stat to check is strikeout disparity--last year the Twins set the all-time record with 1654 strikeouts, they struck out 1560 (tops in the AL) opponents for a differential of -94 Ks. This year they have fanned 504 times (12th in MLB), while opponents have whiffed 532 times, a plus differential. The team has done well in close games (11-4 in one-run games) and 1-0 in extra innings. They have had winning month in April and May and a winning record on the road (17-13). They are only seven games over .500 in part because of underwhelming veteran performance by newcomers Manuel Margot and Carlos Santana and holdovers Kyle Farmer and Christian Vázquez. The starting rotation has been healthy, but needs to be more consistent in the remainder of the season and it is likely that some current minor leaguers will make an impact on the balance of the schedule. 

For those of you to have the patience to read this long post, I hope you comment and add your own opinions. Even if you haven't read it all, make a comment on what you've seen or heard from the Twins in the first two months.

 

 

[FlyingFinn]

6 minutes ago, stringer bell said:

the staff striking out hitters at the second highest rate per inning pitched and the second lowest walk rate in MLB.

Wow, great stat that I didn't know.

Our team stats are quite different if you lump Cleveland, New York and Baltimore into one group and put the rest of the opponents in another group (not that I actually have any of them).

[Riverbrian]

Thus Far - The Twins are mid-pack in almost everything.

Sequencing will be the difference in Wins and Losses since neither the offense or defense will be providing cushion. We have a winning record so... so far so good on the sequencing front. 

[IndianaTwin]

The Twins are on pace for 90 or 91 wins. I think that's sustainable. 

Cleveland is on pace for 107. That's not. 

Kansas City is on pace for 96. I don't think that is either. 

But it's always good to put money in the bank. If Cleveland goes 52-51 the rest of the way, they end up with 91 wins. 

[Mike Sixel]

Too many at bats to below replacement players so far..... And too many home runs given up.

On the positive side, gotta be happy about Miranda, Larnach, Kepler, Jeffers. And CC just keeps being very good. The return of Lewis is exciting, but I'll admit to the fact I'm just going to enjoy it while I can.....

The team is above average, maybe even good. Given they were forced to cut payroll this much, I'm ambivalent about the FO, as I don't like some decisions, but they are winning...

[Road trip]

The good news:  No chance Cleveland maintains this pace.

The less good news:  I kinda doubt the Twins maintain their torrid pace in one-run games.

Even when Lewis comes back to form, I think the Twins offense is simply going to be mediocre or slightly better.  Too many poor hitters (Vazquez, Santana, Margot, Farmer) with limited upside getting too many plate appearances.

The starters have been a relatively pleasant surprise.  Pablo hasn't quite met expectations, but SWR has certainly exceeded them.  Must keep them all healthy!

The bullpen certainly hasn't been "best in the league", or even close.  Hopefully Alcala will be part of the answer for the duration of the season, and I hope Stewart's return comes soon, although the lack of recent updates is troubling.  The bullpen is the spot where I have more hope for improvement.

Defense is what it is.  Buxton and Correa are outstanding.  Kepler and Santana are good.  Everything else is kind of meh.

[Mike Sixel]

7 minutes ago, Road trip said:

The good news:  No chance Cleveland maintains this pace.

The less good news:  I kinda doubt the Twins maintain their torrid pace in one-run games.

Even when Lewis comes back to form, I think the Twins offense is simply going to be mediocre or slightly better.  Too many poor hitters (Vazquez, Santana, Margot, Farmer) with limited upside getting too many plate appearances.

The starters have been a relatively pleasant surprise.  Pablo hasn't quite met expectations, but SWR has certainly exceeded them.  Must keep them all healthy!

The bullpen certainly hasn't been "best in the league", or even close.  Hopefully Alcala will be part of the answer for the duration of the season, and I hope Stewart's return comes soon, although the lack of recent updates is troubling.  The bullpen is the spot where I have more hope for improvement.

Defense is what it is.  Buxton and Correa are outstanding.  Kepler and Santana are good.  Everything else is kind of meh.

Great post

[Schmoeman5]

22 minutes ago, Road trip said:

The good news:  No chance Cleveland maintains this pace.

The less good news:  I kinda doubt the Twins maintain their torrid pace in one-run games.

 

 

Explain. Why can't Cleveland maintain this pace? Lost Bieber early and still doing it. Lost Kwan who was killing and continued winning. Best closer in baseball. And they don't have Vasquez, Farmer, Margot type hitters getting a lot of AB like the Twins. I think the Guardians win the division going away. That's fine.  The Twins just need to stay healthy and a wild card spot is there.

[FlyingFinn]

32 minutes ago, Road trip said:

The bullpen certainly hasn't been "best in the league", or even close. 

7th in ERA and 6th in FIP. That's kind of close.

[Dave The Dastardly]

35 minutes ago, Road trip said:

The good news:  No chance Cleveland maintains this pace.

The less good news:  I kinda doubt the Twins maintain their torrid pace in one-run games.

Even when Lewis comes back to form, I think the Twins offense is simply going to be mediocre or slightly better.  Too many poor hitters (Vazquez, Santana, Margot, Farmer) with limited upside getting too many plate appearances.

The starters have been a relatively pleasant surprise.  Pablo hasn't quite met expectations, but SWR has certainly exceeded them.  Must keep them all healthy!

The bullpen certainly hasn't been "best in the league", or even close.  Hopefully Alcala will be part of the answer for the duration of the season, and I hope Stewart's return comes soon, although the lack of recent updates is troubling.  The bullpen is the spot where I have more hope for improvement.

Defense is what it is.  Buxton and Correa are outstanding.  Kepler and Santana are good.  Everything else is kind of meh.

Agree with your overall summary, offense in particular. So if we replace Margot and Farmer with the two hottest bats we have in the minor leagues... what do we have to lose?

[umterp23]

Twins have played the 8th toughest schedule to date while Cleveland has played the 29th easiest schedule to date.  Now with about 100 games left or so, Twins will have the 24th easiest route vs Cleveland having the 8th.  Strength of schedule will impact the outcomes for sure.  

https://powerrankingsguru.com/mlb/strength-of-schedule.php

Another website view shows this for remainder:

With all this being said, I still like our chances to finish in a playoff berth and may very well win the division.  Cleveland has been very good and maybe they can hold serve.  August and September could be a blast if Twins stay healthy can take series after series.  

[Muppet]

One thing I"ve noticed lately is how the dregs of the team (thinking Margot, Vazquez, Julien, Santana) have mostly been responsible for the past several wins. Particularly Margot. Not only is he generating runs, but his runs, sometimes when combined with Julien's, have been the deciding runs. Julien, despite his lackluster offence had generated a run or two that ultimately won games. Even a more recent game where the Twins lost 2-5, Julien and Margot were the two run scorers. 

While Vazquez only drove in one run in the past 6-7 games, it was in a one run game. Despite his lack of offence, his defense has contributed in at least one occasion where he threw out Blanco trying to steal in the 9th to end a potential rally. 

When the bottom of the order finds ways to contribute, things get good. 

Also, funny note, despite Baseball Reference giving the Guardians a better chance of making the post season (85.3% to 79.5%) they give the Twins a better chance of winning the WS (5% to 4.5%). 

[Road trip]

57 minutes ago, Schmoeman5 said:

Explain. Why can't Cleveland maintain this pace? Lost Bieber early and still doing it. Lost Kwan who was killing and continued winning. Best closer in baseball. And they don't have Vasquez, Farmer, Margot type hitters getting a lot of AB like the Twins. I think the Guardians win the division going away. That's fine.  The Twins just need to stay healthy and a wild card spot is there.

Well, Cleveland is on a pace to win 107.  In MLB history, only 8 teams have won that many, and they were all chock full of Hall of Famers.  Cleveland likely has...idk, probably 0 obvious HOF caliber players.  Also, all but two of those 107+ win teams pre-date the expansion era.  

Could Cleveland finish strong and win like 95-98 games?  Yeah, I think that is possible.  If that happens the Twins won't catch them.

[LA Vikes Fan]

1 hour ago, Road trip said:

The good news:  No chance Cleveland maintains this pace.

The less good news:  I kinda doubt the Twins maintain their torrid pace in one-run games.

Even when Lewis comes back to form, I think the Twins offense is simply going to be mediocre or slightly better.  Too many poor hitters (Vazquez, Santana, Margot, Farmer) with limited upside getting too many plate appearances.

The starters have been a relatively pleasant surprise.  Pablo hasn't quite met expectations, but SWR has certainly exceeded them.  Must keep them all healthy!

The bullpen certainly hasn't been "best in the league", or even close.  Hopefully Alcala will be part of the answer for the duration of the season, and I hope Stewart's return comes soon, although the lack of recent updates is troubling.  The bullpen is the spot where I have more hope for improvement.

Defense is what it is.  Buxton and Correa are outstanding.  Kepler and Santana are good.  Everything else is kind of meh.

As pointed out above, Cleveland will come back to the pack if only because their schedule turns from 29th easiest to 8th toughest while the Twins go from 8th toughest to 24th easiest. I think the division will still be there for the taking in September.

I agree with your analysis of where we have been but I think the Twins will be a better than middle of the pack statistical offense by year end. The addition of Lewis alone will help and also get Castro in the lineup at 2B most every day instead of the Julien/Farmer platoon. I expect a 2B split of  80% Castro/ 20% Farmer until Lee is ready. Remember, Castro is one of the best hitters in the Al against LH pitching so there isn't a need for the strict platoon. I think Larnach is now healthy and settling in as the starting LF against RH pitching, and much as I'd like to trade the guy, Margot is actually been hitting LHs well lately and is  up to .287/.344/.370 against LHs this year. We also have out two biggest strike out artists now in AAA in Wallner and Julien. Finally, with Miranda now out of a daily position I expect to see him as the DH regularly and at both 3B and 1B on occasion, with Jeffers behind the plate more often to get his bat in the lineup over Vasquez since he won't DH as much (more 2/1 ratio than a 1/1 ratio). That will improve the offensive production at DH and IB. Also, better bats on the bench most days since one of Kirilloff, Santana, Miranda, and Jeffers will not be playing most days. Bottom line should be that most of the Lewis ABs going forward should take the place of ABs for Farmer, Santana, and Vasquez when the lineup changes ripple through. 

I see better offensive days ahead. 

[FlyingFinn]

3 minutes ago, LA VIkes Fan said:

The addition of Lewis alone will help and also get Castro in the lineup at 2B most every day instead of the Julien/Farmer platoon.

I think Farmer starts every game against LH's at 2B. Castro will play either LF or CF.

[Road trip]

58 minutes ago, FlyingFinn said:

7th in ERA and 6th in FIP. That's kind of close.

That's fair.  The bullpen has mostly been pretty good, and thankfully the FO has been willing to swap out pitchers who were not working out (Jackson).  I'm still not certain I trust Okert, and I had hoped Funderburk would be a little better.  Bullpen losses are somehow more viscerally painful, but every team gets a few of those.  

[Doctor Gast]

IMO the most important things is not how many runs you score (via HR or whatever) it's when you score them (clutch hitting & not striking out). With the addition of Lewis & the subtraction of Margot, Santana & maybe Farmer if he can't turn it around, I like our chances.

[LA Vikes Fan]

9 minutes ago, FlyingFinn said:

I think Farmer starts every game against LH's at 2B. Castro will play either LF or CF.

IF this happens, it points out the continuing flaw in the roster - the lack of a backup CF other than Castro. There is no reason Castro should play LF except in a pinch. Larnach needs to play and Margot hits LHs fairly well, albeit with absolutely no power. Moreover, if Larnach falls off then you have to give those LF ABs to Kirilloff.  The only reason Farmer should play 2B more than once a week is because Castro has to spell Buxton in CF. Otherwise, Castro should be the everyday 2B with Farmer the 26th guy/defensive replacement. 

We need a guy who can play CF behind Buxton. Keirsey is the obvious answer at least in the field. So we're back to the pre-existing question. How do you get Keirsey up? Has to be in place of Kirilloff or Margot unless there's an injury. And you have to drop someone from the 40 man (Boushley? Canterino to 60 day IL?) to give him a chance. Still would like to see Keirsey up in place of Margot but that's a pipe dream at this point.  

[Fatbat]

Our best player has been injured for 59.6 games and just getting back today. Two huge sophomore slumps by Julien and Wallner. We have been held together by a really good pitching staff. Im still on board with getting 96 wins this season. At some point, Cleveland and KC will regress. May end up 96/95/94 wins for the three top teams in the AL central. 

[stringer bell]

I certainly agree that Cleveland will regress. Besides things noted here earlier, they have run into clubs when they've been crippled by injuries (Boston, Houston). I don't think Cleveland is particularly deep and I don't think their rotation is dominating. That said, when thing go right for a long while, sometimes they just continue to go right. 

[RpR]

Just now, stringer bell said:

I certainly agree that Cleveland will regress. Besides things noted here earlier, they have run into clubs when they've been crippled by injuries (Boston, Houston). I don't think Cleveland is particularly deep and I don't think their rotation is dominating. That said, when thing go right for a long while, sometimes they just continue to go right. 

Do not think or hope?

[MMMordabito]

1 hour ago, Road trip said:

Cleveland likely has...idk, probably 0 obvious HOF caliber players. 

Jose Ramirez will probably finish this season over 50 bWAR as a historically healthy 31 yo.  He's also a 5x All-Star, 4x Top 5 MVP finisher and 4x Silver Slugger.  If I was betting man, I'd bet on him.

4 hours ago, stringer bell said:

Overall, I'd rate the Twins defense as decent, but not flashy (except for Correa and Buxton).

I'm going to add Kepler to the flashy list, even though it might not be popular.

BTW, great post!

[Road trip]

20 minutes ago, MMMordabito said:

Jose Ramirez will probably finish this season over 50 bWAR as a historically healthy 31 yo.  He's also a 5x All-Star, 4x Top 5 MVP finisher and 4x Silver Slugger.  If I was betting man, I'd bet on him.

Yes, Ramirez has a decent shot, and he shouldn't be overlooked.  Right now he probably makes the "Hall of Very Good".  JAWS and the BRef HOF monitor don't seem to love him, but he's young enough yet that a few more good seasons could get him in.  He's one of those opposing players that I absolutely don't want to face with the game on the line.

 

[DocBauer]

@stringerbell, a great post! And a lot of good responses. A few points I'd like to address with my own thoughts/opinions.

1] We can't eliminate the Twins poor start no matter how much we wish we could. But since then, even with that 7 game losing streak, they've been producing wins at a 90+ final tally. That's pretty crazy considering that horrendous start.

2] I'm NOT disparaging what Cleveland has done, or is doing, but it's hard not to look at scheduling and see a large disparity between the 2 teams at this point. The Twins have the advantage going forward. But the Twins also have to perform better against the Guardians or they might lose the division simply due to head to head W/L.

OFFENSE: I am NOT trolling anyone when I say that while the K's are way down, so is the power and run production. Nobody wants a K record, but it's an interesting note that all K's are not created equal, and sometimes they might be acceptable if the power is there. I do believe the Twins are near the top of MLB in doubles, however.

Lewis is back, and his difference is of great importance. Buxton getting hot at some point might be almost as important. A healthy Miranda and a matured Larnach have played an important part. Kirilloff hasn't exactly stunk, but his inconsistency has been maddening. Can he take the next step? Wallner is looking like his old self at AAA right now. Julien still has so much potential even with his reset. Do you want to bet against them for the second half? Farmer is still producing very poorly. And I have a hard time giving "at a boys" to a decent 7-10 days for Margot. Personally, I'm still thinking both will be replaced in the second half by better, younger, more productive bats. Vazquez isn't going anywhere, so we have to hope for the best. Santana has actually been pretty solid since an awful start. He's been somewhat inconsistent, and I wonder if he can keep it up for the rest of the season, but he's been at least solid if you look at the numbers.

Verdict: Looking up with Lewis back, Larnach and Miranda producing, and hopefull returns of Julien and Wallner and possible debut of Lee.

ROTATION: The Twins still have a really good staff, with SWR saving their butts when Varland unexpectedly imploded. Some of the ERA issues, as a team, are on him. With a little luck, the Twins aren't going to have any major injuries here. At some point, Varland and the almost ready Festa are going to get some starts. Both have the potential to be solid, Festa still young and growing, and Varland PROBABLY ending up in the pen come September and maybe beyond. That doesn't mean either, or both, can't still offer up a few decent games at some point. They are going to have to monitor Paddack's IP at some point.

Verdict: Hoping for health and status quo, juggling some innings here and there. But as is, RIGHT NOW, this is a good rotation. I don't know that anyone is coming in on a white horse of rescue if someone falters, but the depth isn't awful.

BULLPEN: So we can laugh and point fingers when the pen falters after pundits proclaimed the Twins might have the best pen in the league preseason. We'll, despite a bunch of injuries, they rank amongst the top 3rd in all MLB. That's not too shabby! Duarte looked promising but is out for the season. Topa was projected to help a lot, and if we're lucky, he's back for the 2nd half. And the Twins survived IL losses of Duran, Thielbar, and Stewart as of now. Nick wrote a great piece about all of this. Alcala has looked even better as of late, but to be fair, he was pretty damn good before his recent demotion when only throwing 1 inning. Rocco has finally seen the light to use him as such, and let Sands go back to being the 8th guy who can toss a couple innings. Okert hasn't been great, but he's been pretty solid. Way too early to tell on the revamped Staumont or the "return to form" Castillo, but the early returns are good.

Verdict: The proof is in production and the pen has produced at a high level despite the injuries and flux. Stewart back and Alcala keeping up what he's been doing almost all season keeps this as a top pen. Varland might be a difference maker late in the season. If Sands falters, Winder has been looking pretty good at St Paul now that he's back. Staumont and Castillo offer hope for depth in the 5-7 innings with the solid Okert. A KEY might be Thielbar. He missed all of ST, was inconsistent when he came back, has looked much better until the big HR against the Yankees tonight. Can he get back on track? Funderburk has the STUFF, and will be back at some point. He's just got to me more consistent.

The pen is THERE, with depth and options, if they can avoid any additional injuries.

FINAL VERDICT: As long as the Twins can keep the STAFF as healthy as possible...understanding there will be some bumps and bruises and additional starts that will have to be made at some point, to mitigate IP if nothing else...the ONUS is on the LINEUP IMO. 

When you remove the first few weeks, Santana has been solid. IDK if he can keep it up, and Larnach and Miranda need to keep up what they've been doing, and AK needs to figure it out before Wallner comes up and replaces him. Castro is excellent, but the TEAM is better when he can move around. That means a return of Julien, and/or the eventual appearance of Lee with Farmer probably gone. And it also means a better option than Margot, who again I don't trust beyond a few games of production. 

The team is good. But as of today, the offense remains the weakest part of the team, though I think the potential to be better is very real.

[FlyingFinn]

6 hours ago, DocBauer said:

Nobody wants a K record, but it's an interesting note that all K's are not created equal, and sometimes they might be acceptable if the power is there.

Replacing Taylor with Margot seems to have been done to decrease the K's and has also resulted in less homers. But Taylor's season isn't any better, batting .198 with 1 HR in 126 AB's.

Interesting also that a bad Julien has actually been better than Polanco, who is hitting .195 with 5 HR's and is injured again.

[Cap'n Piranha]

It’s a good thing the schedule is about to get easier, since the Twins are 20-5 against teams under .500, but only 13-22 against teams over .500.

Here’s the problem though; once you get to October, there’s very few games against teams under .500.

[Linus]

They’ve really been as advertised. Starting pitching has been pretty good but not as good as last year. Bullpen a little better and offense streaky. Adds up to a 88-90 win team. Our perspective is different because the Central isn’t a patsy this year. Royce and an easier schedule should make things a little better. 

[JD-TWINS]

20 hours ago, FlyingFinn said:

7th in ERA and 6th in FIP. That's kind of close.

Are they 7th & 6th in A.L. or in “baseball”?

[JD-TWINS]

1 hour ago, Cap'n Piranha said:

It’s a good thing the schedule is about to get easier, since the Twins are 20-5 against teams under .500, but only 13-22 against teams over .500.

Here’s the problem though; once you get to October, there’s very few games against teams under .500.

Agreed! ………also, 100 games left to improve the record v. teams over .500. They were very competitive last year and I think they are, with health, a better Team this year.

[FlyingFinn]

18 minutes ago, JD-TWINS said:

Are they 7th & 6th in A.L. or in “baseball”?

MLB according to the article by @Nick Nelson