Carlos Santana haters - will you admit you were wrong?

[arby58]

I liked the Santana signing, if nothing else because he was, for years, a Twins killer. At least he wouldn't be on another team doing that, right?

I'm always amazed at the fan/critics who take the first 10, 20, 30 games and project that on a player for the entirety of a 162 game season. Santana has had a couple of important home run streaks for the Twins - where they were the impetus to winning several games. He now is tied for second on the team in home runs and is second in RBIs. 

So, those who laughed at my support for the signing - who is laughing now?

[DocBauer]

Just to be clear, I never "hated" the Santana signing. But he was pretty bad for about 3yrs before a bit of a resurgence in 2023, though he was still only a little above league average in OPS, and that's low for a 1B. I thought it was an unspectacular but solid signing for a 38yo part time player and late inning defensive player.

So far, his 2024 numbers are all below his career norms. And in truth, he hasn't been the "on base machine" of his younger days for some time now. And to be fair, his first few weeks were pretty awful. However, again to be fair, the past 30 days he's had an OPS above league average and has produced power and timely hits. And his defense has been excellent.

My personal issue is can he maintain what he's been doing over the course of the season, or come close? Or is this just a hot streak and he's going to wear down really soon?

He's doing better now than I expected. If he can pretty much match what he did in 2023...much less keep up his current 30 day pace...I will admit his signing was better than my initial, tepid opinion.

I don't see him leading the Twins in any category, but at the moment, he's looking like he might be winning the battle against Father Time for one more season.

[arby58]

Fair enough, Doc, and you're right, he isn't going to lead the team in any offensive category. That said, today's game had the feel of one where the Twins were going to waste a great Ober start - and then it was 3-0. He won the game for the Twins today (give Ober an assist). 

[RpR]

1 hour ago, arby58 said:

Fair enough, Doc, and you're right, he isn't going to lead the team in any offensive category. That said, today's game had the feel of one where the Twins were going to waste a great Ober start - and then it was 3-0. He won the game for the Twins today (give Ober an assist). 

I am amazed that any one thought he was going to be any thing but the full time First Baseman.

The Front Office said they were looking for a First Baseman, not some one to sit on the bench.

[Rosterman]

I'm still NOT totally loving it, but accept it as we don't seem to want to play anyone else at first base, and he is doing an admirable job with the glove. And his bat has come alive. I can live with the average as someone has to contribute to 24-27 outs per game.

[bean5302]

1 hour ago, arby58 said:

I liked the Santana signing, if nothing else because he was, for years, a Twins killer. At least he wouldn't be on another team doing that, right?

I'm always amazed at the fan/critics who take the first 10, 20, 30 games and project that on a player for the entirety of a 162 game season. Santana has had a couple of important home run streaks for the Twins - where they were the impetus to winning several games. He now is tied for second on the team in home runs and is second in RBIs. 

So, those who laughed at my support for the signing - who is laughing now?

I'm always amazed by people who start tooting their own horn after a two week hot streak by a guy who's barely been worth a roster spot 3 of the past 4 years and is now 38 years old, especially when the guy still isn't even league average at the plate on the year.

For the record, he came in hitting .203/.282/.383 OPS .665 wRC+ 89 at 1B. He's just now cracked positive WAR. Let me know when Santana's numbers get better than Miranda's...

[bean5302]

Side note, I don't think anybody hates Carlos Santana. Fans hate the fact Falvey decided to bring him in when there were two internal options for 1B who were expected to be as good or better for essentially the league minimum when the Twins were in a payroll crunch.

[arby58]

6 minutes ago, bean5302 said:

I'm always amazed by people who start tooting their own horn after a two week hot streak by a guy who's barely been worth a roster spot 3 of the past 4 years and is now 38 years old, especially when the guy still isn't even league average at the plate on the year.

For the record, he came in hitting .203/.282/.383 OPS .665 wRC+ 89 at 1B. He's just now cracked positive WAR. Let me know when Santana's numbers get better than Miranda's...

Second on the team in HRs, second in RBIs. Those are for the year, not a few games.  As for Miranda, were you crystal balling it before the start of the year and suggesting they make him a full starter? Not many were - easy now, in hindsight. He also can't play the defense that Santana plays at 1B.

 

[bean5302]

2 minutes ago, arby58 said:

Second on the team in HRs, second in RBIs. Those are for the year, not a few games.

 

Did you see that .665 OPS? Joey Gallo hit a lot of home runs last year on his way to rank 2nd on the team, too. Santana will probably finish the year with a near league average bat (probably below league average) while playing the least valuable defensive position in baseball.

Compare that to Miranda's .280/.322/.439 OPS .761 wRC+ 118. There is absolutely no GM in baseball who'd pick Santana over Miranda right now.

[tony&rodney]

3 minutes ago, bean5302 said:

Side note, I don't think anybody hates Carlos Santana. Fans hate the fact Falvey decided to bring him in when there were two internal options for 1B who were expected to be as good or better for essentially the league minimum when the Twins were in a payroll crunch.

To just add to this comment, there were a number of people who were interested in the Twins signing Rhys Hoskins. I never sensed the distaste for signing Santana but rather a preference for other players. 

To be clear, in lieu of the payroll crunch, I didn't expect any signing. As an aside i have wondered whether Kirilloff has been affected by the lack of confidence shown in him. That said, all players need to earn their playing time. 

[arby58]

8 minutes ago, bean5302 said:

Did you see that .665 OPS? Joey Gallo hit a lot of home runs last year on his way to rank 2nd on the team, too. Santana will probably finish the year with a near league average bat (probably below league average) while playing the least valuable defensive position in baseball.

Compare that to Miranda's .280/.322/.439 OPS .761 wRC+ 118. There is absolutely no GM in baseball who'd pick Santana over Miranda right now.

Miranda didn't even start the year with the Twins. You're doing the 'hindsight 20-20' thing. Meanwhile, back in reality, Santana is a far better first baseman than Miranda will ever be - that's why the Twins are playing him at 3B. 

Santana won the game for the Twins today. He has pretty much won a couple others as well.

[stringer bell]

I was "meh" about the Santana signing. I am not convinced yet that it will be regarded as a mistake by the end of the season, but right now, like the rest of the team, there is a split between the first 20 games where Smooth was brutal to the last 20 games where CS has been very good.

If Carlos lifts his BA closer to .250 and continues to be respectable against right handed pitching, it would appear that the Twins knew what they were doing. It should be noted that having Santana around makes Kirilloff's struggles more of a curious note than a four-alarm fire. 

[arby58]

Rocco on Santana.

https://www.mlb.com/twins/video/rocco-baldelli-on-the-series-win-over-the-blue-jays

 

[Dman]

I didn't like the signing from the start. As others have said not that I hate Santana, but that there seemed like better options out there or else just go with what we had/have.  I agree with @DocBauer let's give this a little more time.  Is this a hot streak or is this who Santana is?  We have small sample sizes on both sides from slump to streak.  Don't get me wrong I want him to have a career year this year.  Still this take is a bit premature for me.

[RpR]

43 minutes ago, arby58 said:

Second on the team in HRs, second in RBIs. Those are for the year, not a few games.  As for Miranda, were you crystal balling it before the start of the year and suggesting they make him a full starter? Not many were - easy now, in hindsight. He also can't play the defense that Santana plays at 1B.

 

I just saw that typo, no idea why I put Third down.

[arby58]

7 minutes ago, Dman said:

I didn't like the signing from the start. As others have said not that I hate Santana, but that there seemed like better options out there or else just go with what we had/have.  I agree with @DocBauer let's give this a little more time.  Is this a hot streak or is this who Santana is?  We have small sample sizes on both sides from slump to streak.  Don't get me wrong I want him to have a career year this year.  Still this take is a bit premature for me.

Any assessment will be 'a bit premature.' Kepler was lousy last year the full first half and then was great. Who knew? That said, early in the season, people were ready to sell Santana for a bag of used batting practice balls, and he now is second on the team in HRs and RBIs. That is worth pointing out, no?

[stringer bell]

8 minutes ago, RpR said:

I just saw that typo, no idea why I put Third down.

Santana was briefly a third baseman for Cleveland, but they quickly saw that he was a better fit at the other side of the infield.

[cheeseheadgophfan]

I'm sorry Carlos.......

[bean5302]

1 hour ago, arby58 said:

Miranda didn't even start the year with the Twins. You're doing the 'hindsight 20-20' thing. Meanwhile, back in reality, Santana is a far better first baseman than Miranda will ever be - that's why the Twins are playing him at 3B. 

Santana won the game for the Twins today. He has pretty much won a couple others as well.

I wanted Miranda starting at 1B before the Twins signed Carlos Santana, and I hated the signing because A) Santana brings very little ceiling to the table. At best, the Twins can hope for 1.5 WAR from him. B) I thought Miranda was probably a better player than Santana while costing $4.5MM less that could have been used more efficiently.

In any case, Santana has been hitting really well over the past 15-20 games or so, and I'm glad to see it.
 

[jmlease1]

Part of my concern was that Santana would get exposed by playing too much; considering how poorly he's still hitting against RHP, I think that's borne out at least a little. He's having an excellent May, but struggled so much early that he's still not quite a league average hitter, which is not great at 1B.

I'm glad he's not washed up, but I'm not ready to definitively say I was wrong about Santana either. While Kirilloff's struggles make is reasonable to run Santana out every day, I still think he's going to get exposed if he's playing too much. Frankly, when Lewis comes back I hope that Miranda sticks and gets some time at 1B.

[Riverbrian]

I don't hate Santana and I don't hate losing Polanco. 

I was concerned that the Twins would have been better off keeping Polanco compared to spending the Polanco money on Santana and Margot. That concern still remains. 

When it is all said and done in 2024. If Santana produces better or near the same as Polanco this year.... My concerns will have been unnecessary. 

 

 

[Squirrel]

Just a note here from the moderator hat … discussions work better if you don’t refer to others as ‘haters’ or ‘apologists.’ Everyone has reasons for liking or disliking signings and moves, some with great passion, but let’s let go of the labeling. Thanks.

[4twinsJA]

I definitely underestimated Santana, especially after the first few weeks of the season. I tend to overreact to slumps or slow starts especially older, newly acquired players. Twins have had a number of experienced players lately that they gave a chance to and it went bad.

[wabene]

9 hours ago, bean5302 said:

Side note, I don't think anybody hates Carlos Santana. Fans hate the fact Falvey decided to bring him in when there were two internal options for 1B who were expected to be as good or better for essentially the league minimum when the Twins were in a payroll crunch.

Considering the track records of AK and Miranda, I don't think it was unreasonable to feel like you couldn't count on them. Most here are pleasantly surprised by Miranda's start. AK looked great when the rest of the team was bad, but he's been scuffling hard the last three weeks. I was definitely not excited about Santana, but the thought process makes sense.

[TwinsDr2021]

12 hours ago, arby58 said:

I liked the Santana signing, if nothing else because he was, for years, a Twins killer. At least he wouldn't be on another team doing that, right?

I'm always amazed at the fan/critics who take the first 10, 20, 30 games and project that on a player for the entirety of a 162 game season. Santana has had a couple of important home run streaks for the Twins - where they were the impetus to winning several games. He now is tied for second on the team in home runs and is second in RBIs. 

So, those who laughed at my support for the signing - who is laughing now?

Just to be clear we are talking about a guy that has a lower WAR than Royce Lewis and is 8th on the Twins in OPS?

He was horrible for about 25 games, and has been somewhere between decent and good for two weeks and were supposed to change our minds on if we liked the signing? This is a silly thread.

 

[TopGunn#22]

I will.  But the season is still young.  Santana has really given the Twins a lift during the last couple of weeks.  Margot on the other hand is worthless (even after his 3-run double).  The sooner they move on from Margot, the better.  

[Major League Ready]

41 minutes ago, Riverbrian said:

I don't hate Santana and I don't hate losing Polanco. 

I was concerned that the Twins would have been better off keeping Polanco compared to spending the Polanco money on Santana and Margot. That concern still remains. 

When it is all said and done in 2024. If Santana produces better or near the same as Polanco this year.... My concerns will have been unnecessary. 

 

 

Wouldn't the best measure of if we would have been better off keeping Polanco be to compare his production to the players who will take Polanco's ABs over the course of the year.   Lewis / Miranda / Farmer / Castro at 3B and Julien / Farmer at 2B.  I guess Topa's performance is also a direct reflection.  Wouldn't that be the most direct measure on this year's team.   Obviously, we don't know if there is a future impact yet from Gonzalez or Bowen. 

The team is better off if those players produce better than Polanco.  Spending the money represented another opportunity to improve the team but the baseline IMO is Polanco VS the players who replace him.   I would judge the trade by : 1) How well the players that take Polanco's AB compare to Polanco's production this year; 2) What they get from Topa; 3) Do Gonzalez or Bowen become ML players which of course is still years away.   

[chpettit19]

Just going to point out that you're attempting to call out people "overreacting" to a small terrible sample because of a small good sample. If he goes back into the tank for the next 20 games what should the reaction be? It's all too small of a sample size to make definitive statements. But, as others have pointed out, even with his recent success he's still been a below average hitter overall at a bat first position. Not sure this is the best time to be claiming victory on any Carlos Santana stance.

If Carlos is the best overall player at 1B for the entirety of the season and isn't taking ABs from better players I'll happily admit I was wrong about that signing. I'd still much prefer Rhys Hoskins, but I'll admit I was wrong about a Miranda/Kirilloff platoon as being a better option if Carlos out performs them over the course of the full season. I really hope his numbers are much better than they are currently if it does end up being that he was their best option of current roster players. A 98 OPS+ is not a good outcome for your 1B. I don't care how good their defense is. The Twins better be able to produce better than that at 1B.

 

[danielp19653]

2 hours ago, chpettit19 said:

Just going to point out that you're attempting to call out people "overreacting" to a small terrible sample because of a small good sample. If he goes back into the tank for the next 20 games what should the reaction be? It's all too small of a sample size to make definitive statements. But, as others have pointed out, even with his recent success he's still been a below average hitter overall at a bat first position. Not sure this is the best time to be claiming victory on any Carlos Santana stance.

If Carlos is the best overall player at 1B for the entirety of the season and isn't taking ABs from better players I'll happily admit I was wrong about that signing. I'd still much prefer Rhys Hoskins, but I'll admit I was wrong about a Miranda/Kirilloff platoon as being a better option if Carlos out performs them over the course of the full season. I really hope his numbers are much better than they are currently if it does end up being that he was their best option of current roster players. A 98 OPS+ is not a good outcome for your 1B. I don't care how good their defense is. The Twins better be able to produce better than that at 1B.

 

I agree with this it was unlikely Santana would stay as bad as he was for the first 3 weeks (unless age hit him like a freight train) But Fangraphs and baseball reference both have Santana graded out negative for defensive value and unless he can hit like the last few weeks for the rest of the year I still don't think this was the best choice the Twins could have made. A pretty below average hitting 1B who is also not really benefiting the team with the glove is a pretty tough sell for being a difference maker for the team.

*edited to add screen grabs of defensive ratings*

-1 runs saved compare to league average, -4 overall bbref

-1.6 def rating on fangraphs (better than Kirilloff) but bad overall on the team

[RpR]

1 minute ago, danielp19653 said:

. A pretty below average hitting 1B who is also not really benefiting the team with the glove is a pretty tough sell for being a difference maker for the team.

Glove is far better than any option the Twins have in the Org.