Margot Misfortune Provides Keirsey Opportunity

[Ted Schwerzler]

The Minnesota Twins employ arguably the best defensive center fielder in baseball. Byron Buxton has been able to lay claim to that title for a while now, but he hasn’t remained on the field to show it off. In needing backup options for his services, Manuel Margot was tabbed as an answer this offseason, but his start could pave the way for prospect DaShawn Keirsey Jr.’s debut.

 

Byron Buxton has come out of the gate showing a level of availability that we haven’t seen in quite some time. Acting as a defensive replacement while his bat slumps, and continuing to play through the slow start while providing some key big hits, it wasn’t until some knee inflammation sent him for a short stint on the injured list that he truly missed time.

It would be expected that Manuel Margot, acquired from the Los Angeles Dodgers in exchange for Noah Miller, would fill some of that playing time. He has been billed as a solid defensive outfielder, with center field acumen, and an ability to hit left-handed pitching. Unfortunately, he has shown almost none of that this season on Rocco Baldelli’s roster, and his -0.5 fWAR is the worst among all Twins players.

Willi Castro has taken over as the regular backup in center field, and rookie Austin Martin has seen some real run there as well. Both represent much higher-caliber options than what Margot has shown thus far, and his clock could be ticking. Despite being paid $6 million this season, it’s the Dodgers by way of Tampa Bay on the hook for almost all of it. Should a shakeup come, it might be to the benefit or prospect DaShawn Keirsey Jr.

Selected in the 4th round by Minnesota during the 2018 Major League Baseball Draft, Keirsey has been more of a slow burn out of the University of Utah. He has played in roughly 400 minor league games and has moved up levels methodically. He doesn’t appear on prospect lists, and he hasn’t been invited to the Arizona Fall League or Future’s Game. If you haven’t been keeping up with his progress though, you’ve been missing out.

Playing 130 games split between Double-A Wichita and Triple-A St. Paul last year, he posted his first OPS over .800 at the professional level. The .739 mark for the Saints wasn’t going to light the world on fire, and he wasn’t especially young for the level at 26 years old. It was clear that he continued to make changes though, and we’re seeing that come to fruition even more this season.

Now soon to be 27 years old, Keirsey is batting over .300 with a strong on-base percentage, and a slugging prowess we haven’t seen before. He has six homers, eight doubles, and four triples in just 31 games. It’s still a small sample size, but there isn’t a way he could have gotten off to a better start. Playing a great defensive center field, he’s not in the same bucket at either Matt Wallner or Trevor Larnach, but his left-handedness could be something that holds him back given the Twins roster construction.

Facing an uphill battle not being on the 40-man roster, there isn’t a ton of incentive for Minnesota to prioritize a late-bloomer like this for a promotion. However, if he continues down this path and Margot keeps looking as lost as he has, there may be no choice but to bring Keirsey across town for a major league debut.

Similar to Mark Contreras before him, these types of well-earned success stories are great to see. Seth Stohs called Keirsey the Twins most underrated prospect last June, and since that announcement he has done nothing to slow the hype train. It’s unfortunate that so many Minnesota outfielders are left-handed, but at some point having the best players play might be the plan of attack.

I wouldn’t bet on Keirsey coming to the majors before June or July, but trends staying where they are at could make him an unexpected key addition to the roster, and it would be something the organization should celebrate.

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[RpR]

Martin has not been good, send him down and bring Keirsey Jr. up.

[LambchoP]

I would love to see him with the twins. Rocco places way too much importance on platooning, I just don't get it. Play your best hitters man. These young lefties need to learn how to hit lefty handed pitchers but they never will if you're constantly pulling them for RH hitters(that are doing nothing at the plate) like Margot and Farmer...

[mikelink45]

He should be up already. Not only has Margot not been the fielder he was supposed to be. He isn't batting either. Since the other teams are paying most of his salary, why are we waiting. I will take take Castro and Martin over him and I'm waiting for a true center. Fielder like Keirsey to come up. 

[Brandon]

We are still paying Margot 4 million so I suspect we are giving him a longer leash to see if he can get back on track.  He is not a great hitter to begin with.  I just hope a change is made by July if he doesn’t get on track quickly.  

[DJL44]

Keirsey could be a pretty good guy to have as a backup to Buxton. When Buxton is healthy Keirsey can play for the Saints and when Buxton is on the injured list Keirsey can play CF for the Twins. Handedness doesn't matter in that situation so much and Keirsey is the strong side of a platoon since he bats LH. Keirsey has 3 years worth of options remaining if the Twins want to use him that way for the next few seasons.

I don't think this has much to do with Margot since they aren't using him in CF anyway. They aren't going to bring up Keirsey to play corner OF with Larnach, Kepler, Kirilloff, Castro, Martin and Wallner ahead of him on the depth chart.

[DJL44]

On 5/10/2024 at 9:00 AM, RpR said:

Martin has not been good, send him down and bring Keirsey Jr. up.

They're not going to use Keirsey as a RH platoon bat because he isn't one. They also need to stay with Martin long enough that he can learn a little on the job. You can't give a rookie two weeks, demote him for a different rookie who gets two weeks and repeat ad nauseum. Think of how much Julien improved over the course of the season last year. I don't think that would have been the case if they had demoted him whenever he had a bad game. I agree that Martin hasn't been good, but he also hasn't been that bad and he's not the worst performing OF on the roster.

[Karbo]

I would think the clock is ticking for Margot. He either starts hitting or gets cut. In fairness that's also what I thought about Santana. Now he is hitting somewhat, but he does play pretty good defense, which Margot really doesn't.

[1985Fan]

I wonder how much Kiersey CF defense would benefit Twins, not even thinking about his offense. Castro does not look like a evetday CF, despite what the stats may say.. Martin doesn’t look better than Castro, so if Keirsey can improve the defense, that alone is worth the his promotion. 

[tarheeltwinsfan]

Trading SS Noah Miller, the minor league platinum glove winner last season for a $4,000,000 Margot, was a big mistake. If I were hell bent on trading Miller, because there was no room on the Twins' roster for the best fielding minor league player (who is a SS to boot), at least I would have gotten some flame throwing pitching prospects with high upsides, similar to Miller's high upside, when he learns to hit.

[Parfigliano]

1 hour ago, mikelink45 said:

He should be up already. Not only has Margot not been the fielder he was supposed to be. He isn't batting either. Since the other teams are paying most of his salary, why are we waiting. I will take take Castro and Martin over him and I'm waiting for a true center. Fielder like Keirsey to come up. 

Margot is another example of the Twins stubbornly sticking with an off season addition thereby blocking a younger better player.  Its a Twins tradition.

[mnfireman]

The team is winning despite Margot's lack of offense, however his poor play in the field is of greater concern to me, and has almost proven costly on several occasions. He was supposedly traded for as defensive insurance for Buxton, but he has more than proven to be a defensive liability.

However, given the teams track record, if anybody gets sent out it will probably be Kirilloff - he has an option left and has been struggling as much as Margot. Rocco likes veterans, especially former Rays, so Margot will be given a long leash (as he already has).

[Dman]

I'd give him at least another a month to make sure his bat is for real.  Often when teams see guys a second time around they are able to make better adjustments.  Making that leap to MLB is really hard.  Stevenson was as good or better than Keirsey last year and when they finally brought him up he did nothing at the MLB level.  Need to make absolutely sure Keirsey can stick or they will be forced to DFA him if he can't make the leap.

That being said he might handle the jump just fine and his defense would certainly be welcome in center.  If you are adding him to the 40 man though someone has to go or a longer term injury has to happen and Margo looks like the only one they would want to take off the roster.  Margo was specifically brought in for his right handed bat though.

I think they give Margo another month at least to see if he heats up.  If Buxton is back there is less need for Keirsey in center.  I do think if Keirsey keeps this up they will want to make room for him.  Nice to have a fourth outfielder with his kind of speed and defense on the roster.

 

[Doctor Gast]

W/o Margot Keirsey should have been up already. IMO Keirsey's performance won't translate right away in the MLB but it's all a process. Martin's stats lately have been baffling but Martin is MLBer & he'll come through. He just needs time. LH CFer who can hit is a premium, Keirsey will prove to be valuable.

[bean5302]

I'm not too excited about Keirsey right now. He's 27 and his bat has slowly moved forward through the years as his experience has piled on. Last year, he was below average at AAA (Martin was above average) and while this year Keirsey's numbers look better, they're being fueled by an ISO that's pretty wildly out of line with expectations.

Honestly, he looks like an Andrew Stevenson type to me. I don't think his floor or ceiling is any higher than Martin's. Stevenson might be a good pinch runner or defensive replacement, but I have my doubts his bat will play.

[RpR]

1 hour ago, DJL44 said:

They're not going to use Keirsey as a RH platoon bat because he isn't one. They also need to stay with Martin long enough that he can learn a little on the job. You can't give a rookie two weeks, demote him for a different rookie who gets two weeks and repeat ad nauseum. Think of how much Julien improved over the course of the season last year. I don't think that would have been the case if they had demoted him whenever he had a bad game. I agree that Martin hasn't been good, but he also hasn't been that bad and he's not the worst performing OF on the roster.

Julien did not improve during the season; Ed improved over the winter and spring training.

He was removed for defensive reasons all last season.

Martin can improve in AAA; bring Keirsey up to see if he is a flash in the pan or a truely good Buxton fill in, Martin is NOT.

[RpR]

12 minutes ago, Doctor Gast said:

W/o Margot Keirsey should have been up already. IMO Keirsey's performance won't translate in the MLB but it's all a process. Martin's stats lately have been baffling but Martin is MLBer & he'll come through. He just needs time. LH CFer who can hit is a premium, Keirsey will prove to be valuable.

Hmmm, Keirsey will not be good enough but by some wannbe miracle Martin will suddenly get better.

Rationalization at its worst.

[D.C Twins]

1 hour ago, tarheeltwinsfan said:

Trading SS Noah Miller, the minor league platinum glove winner last season for a $4,000,000 Margot, was a big mistake. If I were hell bent on trading Miller, because there was no room on the Twins' roster for the best fielding minor league player (who is a SS to boot), at least I would have gotten some flame throwing pitching prospects with high upsides, similar to Miller's high upside, when he learns to hit.

This.... this... aaaaaaaaand THIS!

[Doctor Gast]

8 minutes ago, RpR said:

Hmmm, Keirsey will not be good enough but by some wannbe miracle Martin will suddenly get better.

Rationalization at its worst.

W/o Margot Keirsey should have been up already. IMO Keirsey's performance won't translate in the MLB but it's all a process. Martin's stats lately have been baffling but Martin is MLBer & he'll come through. He just needs time. LH CFer who can hit is a premium, Keirsey will prove to be valuable.

I should have been more specific Keirsey stuff will translate in the MLB but what I wanted to say was that it won't be automatic, it's a process. If you take everything into context what I said about Keirsey you'd know I'm high on Keirsey, Martin's internal makeup is much like Lewis's so he'll learn more at the MLB level.

Don't be so quick to be so critical just because you are so quick to judge.

[RpR]

1 hour ago, Doctor Gast said:

W/o Margot Keirsey should have been up already. IMO Keirsey's performance won't translate in the MLB but it's all a process. Martin's stats lately have been baffling but Martin is MLBer & he'll come through. He just needs time. LH CFer who can hit is a premium, Keirsey will prove to be valuable.

I should have been more specific Keirsey stuff will translate in the MLB but what I wanted to say was that it won't be automatic, it's a process. If you take everything into context what I said about Keirsey you'd know I'm high on Keirsey, Martin's internal makeup is much like Lewis's so he'll learn more at the MLB level.

Don't be so quick to be so critical just because you are so quick to judge.

Martin can learn in AAA; I do not want Keirsey up for long, I want to see if he is truly a good fielding Center Fielder.

[DJL44]

5 hours ago, tarheeltwinsfan said:

Trading SS Noah Miller, the minor league platinum glove winner last season for a $4,000,000 Margot, was a big mistake. If I were hell bent on trading Miller, because there was no room on the Twins' roster for the best fielding minor league player (who is a SS to boot), at least I would have gotten some flame throwing pitching prospects with high upsides, similar to Miller's high upside, when he learns to hit.

Doncon is basically equal to Miller as a prospect. Miller has a platinum glove and a lead bat.

[Ted Schwerzler]

6 hours ago, tarheeltwinsfan said:

Trading SS Noah Miller, the minor league platinum glove winner last season for a $4,000,000 Margot, was a big mistake. If I were hell bent on trading Miller, because there was no room on the Twins' roster for the best fielding minor league player (who is a SS to boot), at least I would have gotten some flame throwing pitching prospects with high upsides, similar to Miller's high upside, when he learns to hit.

I think there's a better chance Rayne Doncon does something in the majors than Miller.

His glove is great, but he can't hit his weight...and probably won't.

[jmlease1]

5 hours ago, tarheeltwinsfan said:

Trading SS Noah Miller, the minor league platinum glove winner last season for a $4,000,000 Margot, was a big mistake. If I were hell bent on trading Miller, because there was no room on the Twins' roster for the best fielding minor league player (who is a SS to boot), at least I would have gotten some flame throwing pitching prospects with high upsides, similar to Miller's high upside, when he learns to hit.

As per usual when Noah Miller comes up, people leave off the fact that we got Rayne Doncon back in that deal, a prospect with similar value. And while Miller is hitting much better this season, the fact that the Dodgers are having him repeat the level does suggest that they might have some concerns over his bat too.

Margot isn't working out very well so far; his defense has been very disappointing and if anyone here says they knew that he was going to have the worst defensive season of his career and look like he might be in severe decline as a fielder at age 29...I'm sorry, I don't think I believe you. He's been functional at the plate against LHP, which is the primary reason he was brought here...but he's unplayable right now against RHP, so that combined with poor looking defense makes him not very useful.

When to cut loose a veteran player is a bit more complicated than we'd like. It's not like playing fantasy baseball, where in most leagues there's always another veteran OF that you can pick up and take a flier on. If we cut Margot now, he's gone and we're not even halfway through May. And if Kiersey and Martin don't produce, then are we in trouble? The other aspect is the Kepler/Santana aspect of this. I was getting ready to cut Kepler loose at midseason (as were a lot of people here) and that would have been a massive mistake. The snap-reactions on Santana from his early struggles would have run him out of town too...after today's performance he's back to being almost a league-average hitter (offense is down this year, an OPS around .700 is better than you think).

Is Margot Gallo or Kepler? Is this who he's going to be, or can he pull himself back up like Santana? I suspect the Twins will give him more rope. I'm not opposed to it right now, but once Buxton and Lewis get back I feel like Margot had better show something or we might be able to fairly say we've seen enough.

Kiersey is doing really well this season and that's great. I love having depth like him at AAA, because I remember what it was like 2 years ago when the season got ruined because we didn't have enough competent outfielders. We're 1/4 of the way through the season, and early games matter just as much as late games...but let's not pretend there's not risk is dumping veterans before summer even starts.

[bean5302]

33 minutes ago, jmlease1 said:

...Margot isn't working out very well so far; his defense has been very disappointing and if anyone here says they knew that he was going to have the worst defensive season of his career and look like he might be in severe decline as a fielder at age 29...I'm sorry, I don't think I believe you...

I thought it was a common opinion Margot was in significant decline, and that it was dubious he'd provide value?

It doesn't take some sort of human savant to know Margot had lost a lot of speed or that he was showing a major decline in his defensive value. A quick visit to Fangraphs and BaseballSavant.com reveals those patterns, along with his evaporation of plate discipline, too. He didn't hit lefties for beans last year, either.

I think the dead horse has been revisited for a thorough beating at least 2x a week for the past couple of months in regard to the trade, but pretending the acquisition of Margot was a popular move or that it was hard to predict Margot was likely cooked is a new argument I was unaware of.

[Doctor Gast]

3 hours ago, RpR said:

Martin can learn in AAA; I do not want Keirsey up for long, I want to see if he is truly a good fielding Center Fielder.

I believe he is but for him to stay he'll have to figure MLB pitching. That might take a while.

[Rod Carews Birthday]

Again, the real issue here is whether the Twins are comfortable removing the veteran completely from the equation at this early point in the season.  Undoubtedly, Margo has been disappointing all the way around.  However, cutting bait now means he is just gone and Martin and/or Keirsey have to be good or we're in trouble, and that's doubly true if Buxton is out for an extended amount of time this season. 

Personally, I think Martin has the tools to be a pretty good MLB player.  He's doing "OK" in his first taste of the show and seems to be a guy that learns from the experience.  I give him about a 60-70% chance of being who we need him to be.   I think Keirsey could possibly have the tools to be a pretty good MLB player.  Outside of defense, none of his skills stick out to me and I think he probably only has a 30-40% chance to be who we need him to be.  So. . . . in theory, between the two of them, we should be ok, but it is pretty hard to feel really secure about the situation.  Certainly, there is at least as much chance (30-40%) that Margot recovers and becomes a useful player again.  After all, he did it once and isn't chronologically over the hill. 

So, do you roll the dice with the new guys or hang onto some hope with the veteran?  I'm glad I'm not making the decision, because last season I cut Kepler about May 15.  Apparently I was quite wrong.  The Twins luckily didn't follow my advice and kept him.  Apparently they have more information than me.  Who knew?

[DocBauer]

Margot was an excellent defensive CF just a couple years ago. His regression in 2023, from my understanding, was a leg injury that hampered him. Healed up, supposedly, I don't think the Twins believed he was going to suddenly fall of a cliff defensively, OR suddenly go in the tank offensively like he has. 

For his career, Margot is about league average as a hitter, with a better split against LHP. We all know this. In a reserve, platoon type of role, THAT Margot wasn't a bad pickup. Again, I don't think the Twins, or anyone, saw him falling off that same cliff with the bat.

BUT, being a not a relatively "old" player at 29, he probably deserves a little more time to see if he can rebound. Once he's gone, he's gone.

Some have compared Keirsey to Stevenson from last year. The comp is SOMEWHAT fair in that they are similar types of skillset players. Where I think the comp is unfair is Keirsey is younger, and a late bloomer who's been ascending, not a AAAA journeyman who's been hanging around.

I'm not ready to jettison the veteran Margot just yet. And I'm OK giving Keirsey a little more time to bake at AAA. But he appears to have a solid HIT tool, solid OB ability, speed, some pop, and is excellent defensively. Having a balanced roster with a couple RH role guys is not a bad thing to have. But about 75% of the arms are always going to be RH. So a guy who hits LH and has potential vs a RH veteran fading fast, I'm just not that concerned about what side of the plate he hits from.

Keirsey may or may not turn out to be a really good/solid or OK player. We won't know until he gets a shot. (Martin pretty much the same, though he's shown some encouraging signs). I suspect he'll get his opportunity at some point. While he's old to be considered a top prospect, you just can't deny his huge step forward in 2022, 2023, and so far in 2024. To simply dismiss him because he's 27yo would be roster malpractice. Sometimes guys just figure it out later due to many factors.

I don't see a move, barring injury, until after May is done. If Margot doesn't turn it around come June sometime, and Keirsey keeps doing what he's doing, to blazes with any RH/LH debate, just give him his shot and move on from Margot. 

[tarheeltwinsfan]

3 hours ago, Ted Schwerzler said:

I think there's a better chance Rayne Doncon does something in the majors than Miller.

His glove is great, but he can't hit his weight...and probably won't.

Ted, I hope you are right. However, when I saw Miller at Spring Training, I could tell there was something extra special about his fielding at the most important fielding position in baseball. I do respect your wisdom and baseball knowledge, but I must disagree with you about Miller vs. Doncon.

[terrydactyls]

18 hours ago, Doctor Gast said:

W/o Margot Keirsey should have been up already. IMO Keirsey's performance won't translate in the MLB but it's all a process. Martin's stats lately have been baffling but Martin is MLBer & he'll come through. He just needs time. LH CFer who can hit is a premium, Keirsey will prove to be valuable.

I should have been more specific Keirsey stuff will translate in the MLB but what I wanted to say was that it won't be automatic, it's a process. If you take everything into context what I said about Keirsey you'd know I'm high on Keirsey, Martin's internal makeup is much like Lewis's so he'll learn more at the MLB level.

Don't be so quick to be so critical just because you are so quick to judge.

If you would take some time to read what you've written before you post it, people not be "so critical".  RpR was commenting on what you wrote, not what you intended to write.

[mickster]

On 5/12/2024 at 11:40 AM, bean5302 said:

I'm not too excited about Keirsey right now. He's 27 and his bat has slowly moved forward through the years as his experience has piled on. Last year, he was below average at AAA (Martin was above average) and while this year Keirsey's numbers look better, they're being fueled by an ISO that's pretty wildly out of line with expectations.

Honestly, he looks like an Andrew Stevenson type to me. I don't think his floor or ceiling is any higher than Martin's. Stevenson might be a good pinch runner or defensive replacement, but I have my doubts his bat will play.

I agree with this.   I am hoping he keeps it up and we flip him