Could Simeon Woods Richardson Take Louie Varland's Spot in the Twins Starting Rotation?

[Cody Schoenmann]

Did the 23-year-old prospect improve his chances of replacing the St. Paul native in the Twins rotation following his impressive start against the Detroit Tigers this past Saturday?

This past Saturday, Minnesota Twins 20th-ranked prospect Simeon Woods Richardson made his second career against the Detroit Tigers at Comerica Park, the same site he made his MLB debut 561 days prior. Having begun the season at Triple-A St. Paul as the organization's sixth starter and the first line of defense if one of the initial five starting pitchers were to get injured or perform poorly, Woods Richardson was promoted to start the second game of Saturday's doubleheader. The 23-year-old embodied the role and performed exceptionally, tossing 80 pitches while giving up two hits, one walk, one earned run, and striking out five and generating 20 called strikes and whiffs (CS+Whiffs) over six innings pitched. 

 

Woods Richardson overpowered Detroit's lineup, watching his four-seam fastball max out at 95.1 MPH and sit at 93 MPH, a 2.5 MPH increase from his one appearance in 2023. The Texas High School product threw his four-seam fastball 45% of the time while generating ten CS+Whiffs and averaging a respectable 2210 Rotations Per Minute (RPM). Of the three appearances the 23-year-old Texas High School product has made in the majors, Saturday was by far his most encouraging performance, skyrocketing fans' perception of the young right-hander to an all-time high since joining the organization alongside Austin Martin at the 2021 MLB Trade Deadline. Woods Richardson will inevitably get demoted back to Triple-A St. Paul. Yet, his performance could have altered how the Twins front office will approach the starting rotation the rest of the season. 

Two times through the rotation, the quartet of Pablo López, Joe Ryan, Bailey Ober, and Chris Paddack have generated a 6.24 ERA, 5.18 FIP, 4.24 xFIP, and 23.05% strikeout rate over 52 innings pitched. The starting rotations numbers are inflated due to Ober's implosive outing against the Kansas City Royals, where he gave up eight earned runs over 1 1/3 innings pitched, and the team's xFIP indicates that. Ober had the worst outing of the unit, but the worst-performing pitcher two times through the rotation has seemingly been fifth-starter Louie Varland. Over two starts, Varland has generated a 9.00 ERA, 7.36 FIP, 3.99 xFIP, and 22.2% strikeout rate. Varland was supposed to begin the season at Triple-A St. Paul, residing in the role Woods Richardson currently inhabits, yet presumed fifth-starter Anthony DeSclafani, undergoing forearm flexor tendon surgery in late March, bumped the 26-year-old St. Paul native into the club's Opening Day five-person rotation.

Though Varland earning the fifth spot in the starting rotation upon news of DeSclafani's season-ending surgery was expected, it is unknown how long of a leash the team's decision-makers will have with the hard-throwing righty. Last season, Varland's most significant shortcomings were his inability to limit home runs and concerns over the effectiveness of his offspeed pitches. Although Varland has improved his secondary pitches, he has generated an alarmingly below-average 50% home run to fly ball rate, with most home runs surrendered coming off his four-seam fastball. Varland has struggled at suppressing home runs since beginning the 2022 minor league season with the Double-A Wichita Wind Surge, averaging a well-below-average 13.2% home run-to-fly ball rate between Double-A and the parent club in 302 innings pitched between 2022 and 2023. Although Varland has struggled with quashing home runs for the better part of three seasons, his performance over two starts to begin the season is particularly concerning and could be a driving force in potentially losing his spot in the starting rotation. 

 

Beyond his inability to limit home runs remaining a thorn in the 15th-round pick's side, a new problem has arisen for the Concordia University, St. Paul product this season. Over 45 batters faced this season, Varland's walk rate has jumped from 6.6% over his ten games as a starter last season to 11.1% over his first two outings. Varland has never struggled with command at any level, so his newfound inability to suppress free passes is particularly concerning. The primary cause for his concerning command issues could be his trying to implement his new and refined pitches, most notably his curveball and cutter, into his repertoire. Still, while tinkering with pitches is expected (especially early in the season), adding command and location issues to concerns over the long ball is a worst-case scenario for the hard-tossing hurler. 

With Varland's first two starts coming against two above-average National League teams in the Milwaukee Brewers and Los Angeles Dodgers, there is reason to suspect he could turn his luck around against lesser opponents. Unfortunately, he will yet to be gifted that opportunity, as his next start is this Monday against the offensively skilled Baltimore Orioles. That said, Varland still merits an extended opportunity to prove that he can remain a productive member of the Twins starting rotation. However, if the same issues that plagued his ability to stay in the Twins' starting rotation in 2023 remain, they could yet again lead to his demise as a starter and force him to transition into a reliever as he did toward the end of last season. If this scenario plays out and Woods Richardson can build off his impressive start against the Tigers and perform well at Triple-A St. Paul for the next few weeks, we could see the former consensus Top 100 prospect get his first extended opportunity in MLB. 

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[weneedneshek]

I just dont think Varland has done enough to merit any kind of leash. We need to ride hot hands when they are hot, especially when it comes to young guys with options. I would give him one more start to show what he's got and then give SWR another look if he falls flat

[DJL44]

I expect they will need both of them and probably more to get through the season.

[CRF]

If Louie gets thumped again tonight, replacing him in the rota is something they better be thinking about. I just don't know if Varland is cut out to be a starter. He hasn't shown much in that capacity, but he was great in the pen at the end of last season. 

[bean5302]

Varland was always sketchy for effectively holding down a rotation spot. There's a reason he was moved to the bullpen, and the Statcast numbers on Varland were clear. None of his stuff was great. It was adequate for a reliever, but with some reasonable decline moving into the rotation, there should have been concerns. Varland's 4 seamer isn't moving quite as well as last year, and it's been destroyed. I think there's reason to expect a fair amount of rebound, though.

When it comes to Woods-Richardson, he's been better than anybody expected this year. The stuff was always potentially there, but the repetition/mechanics/consistency of his delivery was not. Like Varland being moved to the bullpen, there was a reason the Twins targeted SWR in the Berrios exchange. SWR was a legitimate mid-rotation arm prospect so if he's found his groove, I could definitely see him pushing Varland back to the bullpen permanently.

 

[4twinsJA]

SWR already optioned back to AAA. SWR definitely is the 6th starter now waiting at AAA. He should get plenty of opportunity at the MLB level this year. Definitely an option if Varland has a few more dissappointing starts.

[Azviking101]

The problem is that even if Louie is bumped they have to keep him stretched out as a starter because the Twins didn’t build the rotation depth this year that they had last season. 
Louie is either going to be an average starter at best or toiling away in AAA even though he’s an elite bullpen arm. 

[chpettit19]

I expect Varland to get 2 or 3 more starts before they make any rotation moves. SWR looked good for sure, but it's still very early. He has plenty more proving to do of his own. I'd bet they give them each another 2 weeks and 3 starts to see where they're at and then it may be a switch that's made to put Louie in the AAA rotation and give SWR a shot with the big club. Can't imagine they put Varland back in the pen before late August or September, though. Simply can't take another pitcher out of your rotation depth without being forced to.

If Louie goes back to the pen at the end of the year (I expect that's how it turns out) he's more than likely there for good. His rotation clock is ticking. The silver lining is that he looked like he could be really, really good out of the pen. It's not the end of the world, but I'm sure he'd be a little bummed. Easier to survive HR problems in the pen. I expect his BB% to come back down as the season moves forward, but suppressing the HRs is going to be a harder development for him.

[mikelink45]

Varland started hot too when first called up.  SWR is in line, it is up to Louie to take charges of his position in the rotation. 

[Doctor Gast]

Agree that Varland has had some pretty tough competition teams to pitch against but from the beginning I've advocating Varland to start out in long relief & spot start, still do. I'm encouraged by SWR on the MLB level. The season & both of them are still young & promising, let's see how things shake out. Varland would be too valuable in the pen to send down.

[FlyingFinn]

SWR was great on Saturday and is firmly cemented as our #6. But I wouldn't call him up to replace Varland based on one game. He has a 7.56 ERA with the Saints this year. He needs to work on consistency and we will need him soon enough in the rotation.

[Twins_Fan_in_NJ]

Was bullish on Varland to start the season and its hard to change your opinion after starts against the Brewers and the Dodgers. He wasn't necessarily awful in either start and the performances were what you would expect from a 5th starter. But, with that said, I think competition is a good thing and the Twins will undoubtedly keep an open mind when it comes to SWR.

[Karbo]

Lets take into consideration that Varland, as the article says, has faced 2 pretty good hitting lineups, and SWR was facing a team that is struggling at the plate almost as much as the Twins. SWR looked great for sure, but IMO its way too early to move Varland out of the rotation. Lets see how SWR does in AAA for a few more starts anyway.

[Dman]

20 minutes ago, chpettit19 said:

I expect Varland to get 2 or 3 more starts before they make any rotation moves. SWR looked good for sure, but it's still very early. He has plenty more proving to do of his own. I'd bet they give them each another 2 weeks and 3 starts to see where they're at and then it may be a switch that's made to put Louie in the AAA rotation and give SWR a shot with the big club. Can't imagine they put Varland back in the pen before late August or September, though. Simply can't take another pitcher out of your rotation depth without being forced to.

If Louie goes back to the pen at the end of the year (I expect that's how it turns out) he's more than likely there for good. His rotation clock is ticking. The silver lining is that he looked like he could be really, really good out of the pen. It's not the end of the world, but I'm sure he'd be a little bummed. Easier to survive HR problems in the pen. I expect his BB% to come back down as the season moves forward, but suppressing the HRs is going to be a harder development for him.

I agree with you that it will take more time to sort this out.  I get that SWR was masterful against the Tigers and if he can consistently pitch like that he will have a rotation spot.  Let's not forget that he just got shellacked in AAA and owns a 7.34 ERA there right now. 

I think you are right let's see who can be the more consistent pitcher the next month before making any rash decisions.  Louie was the minor league pitcher of the year a couple of years and has had some success at the MLB level.  He gives up too many HR's and needs to figure that out, but if he can he will hold down a rotation spot.  If not maybe the pen, but the pen is kind of getting full of good arms right now as well.

I do think SWR has the better pitches\stuff plus so if he can find some consistency odds are he passes Varland at some point, but I think Louie deserves a few more games to get things under control. As mentioned by others both arms will be needed as the season goes on anyway so no rush IMO.

[bean5302]

36 minutes ago, Azviking101 said:

The problem is that even if Louie is bumped they have to keep him stretched out as a starter because the Twins didn’t build the rotation depth this year that they had last season. 
Louie is either going to be an average starter at best or toiling away in AAA even though he’s an elite bullpen arm. 

I don't think they do/will. If Varland gets bumped, it's because he's not effective as an MLB starter. No reason to keep him stretched out with Sands, Headrick, and Dobnak (pitching well so far) in the system.

[Heistyman]

Bring back Jim Hooey

[Riverbrian]

1 hour ago, DJL44 said:

I expect they will need both of them and probably more to get through the season.

Spot on.

Switching Horses after 9 innings and 6 innings of work is... a little impetuous. 

Take it slow

Things will work out fine. 

All we need is just a little patience. 

[Guest]

Yes.  And so could Cole Sands.  And One-inning Louie would excel in the bullpen.

[Patzky]

52 minutes ago, Dman said:

I agree with you that it will take more time to sort this out.  I get that SWR was masterful against the Tigers and if he can consistently pitch like that he will have a rotation spot.  Let's not forget that he just got shellacked in AAA and owns a 7.34 ERA there right now. 

I think you are right let's see who can be the more consistent pitcher the next month before making any rash decisions.  Louie was the minor league pitcher of the year a couple of years and has had some success at the MLB level.  He gives up too many HR's and needs to figure that out, but if he can he will hold down a rotation spot.  If not maybe the pen, but the pen is kind of getting full of good arms right now as well.

I do think SWR has the better pitches\stuff plus so if he can find some consistency odds are he passes Varland at some point, but I think Louie deserves a few more games to get things under control. As mentioned by others both arms will be needed as the season goes on anyway so no rush IMO.

I'm wondering about lack of flexibility if the team were to use Varland/Paddack as a piggyback starter and Woods Richardson as a back of the rotation. Would get the limit on innings for Paddack that is a concern.. maybe have Louie go 3 innings then Paddack go from there 4 or five more..

[laloesch]

I freely admit I was not super excited about SWR leading up to this season, but if he can be a consistent and effective 5th starter, I'll gladly eat crow or bugs (whatever is required).  Varland has not looked good at all so far.  We are gonna need him and possibly Festa later in the season as the starting staff has been shaky with Lopez off to a slow start.        

[Azviking101]

1 hour ago, bean5302 said:

I don't think they do/will. If Varland gets bumped, it's because he's not effective as an MLB starter. No reason to keep him stretched out with Sands, Headrick, and Dobnak (pitching well so far) in the system.

Sands is not a starter anymore and Headrick isn’t healthy. After that their options are Festa (who they’re limiting to 60ish pitches per start)

they’re already out of backup plans 

[chpettit19]

1 hour ago, Bigfork Twins Guy said:

I agree with Chpettit19 that Varland should get 2-3 more starts before either demoting him to AAA or the pen.

I worry about SWR to a degree as he has not dominated AAA at all and is still quite young.  I also heard Perkins mention that SWR changed his delivery slot from straight over the top to 3/4 and this increased his velocity.  After that was mentioned, I noticed that as the game went on he became more and more over the top.  Now, he got away with that this time but I think other teams would adjust and he'd not be as effective.  Just my opinion.  Let's let this play out a bit.

Not sure he really got more over the top. At least not drastically. He sat pretty consistently between 1.5 ft and 2 ft of horizontal release throughout the appearance. Between just under 6' and about 6.5' of vertical release the whole game as well. His release points from the catcher POV from innings 1 through 6 below. Some slight fade towards the middle, but I don't think it was anything crazy.

The important thing with his change in arm slot is about getting more velo and he maintained that just fine throughout the start. Last fastball clocked at 93.8 MPH on pitch 77 will play just fine for him.

[USAFChief]

2 hours ago, bean5302 said:

 No reason to keep him stretched out with Sands, Headrick, and Dobnak (pitching well so far) in the system.

 

 

 

 

[h2oface]

2 hours ago, Twins_Fan_in_NJ said:

Was bullish on Varland to start the season and its hard to change your opinion after starts against the Brewers and the Dodgers. He wasn't necessarily awful in either start and the performances were what you would expect from a 5th starter. But, with that said, I think competition is a good thing and the Twins will undoubtedly keep an open mind when it comes to SWR.

Are Twins' fans just conditioned to think that a 9.00 ERA after two starts "wasn't necessarily awful"?

Personally, I don't think either one of them are gonna make it, long term, as starters. SWR curve sure was fun to watch, though. Results in AAA, not so much. But we will see a lot of suffering results along the way to that final outcome.

[USAFChief]

1 minute ago, h2oface said:

Are Twins' fans just conditioned to think that a 9.00 ERA after two starts "wasn't necessarily awful"?

And "what to expect from a 5th starter?"

[Twins_Fan_in_NJ]

1 minute ago, h2oface said:

Are Twins' fans just conditioned to think that a 9.00 ERA after two starts "wasn't necessarily awful"?

I don't think so. It's a small sample size and the Dodgers are a traveling all-star team. 

[h2oface]

2 hours ago, Karbo said:

Lets take into consideration that Varland, as the article says, has faced 2 pretty good hitting lineups, and SWR was facing a team that is struggling at the plate almost as much as the Twins. SWR looked great for sure, but IMO its way too early to move Varland out of the rotation. Lets see how SWR does in AAA for a few more starts anyway.

Was that what happened when the anointed ace, Pablo Day Lopez, opened that series? Struggling?

[chpettit19]

32 minutes ago, USAFChief said:

And "what to expect from a 5th starter?"

You have to have a bad starter in the 5th spot. It's in the CBA I'm pretty sure.

[nicksaviking]

8 minutes ago, chpettit19 said:

You have to have a bad starter in the 5th spot. It's in the CBA I'm pretty sure.

Sigh, yeah, if only they'd paid attention to how the season went last year when Meada was the 'bad' starter.

[chpettit19]

2 minutes ago, nicksaviking said:

Sigh, yeah, if only they'd paid attention to how the season went last year when Meada was the 'bad' starter.

Had to right-size their rotation this year.