The Leftovers: Who Remains from the Twins 2021 Draft Class?

[Cody Christie]

The Twins have traded away their top five picks from the 2021 MLB Draft. So, who remains in the organization, and how many can impact the big-league roster in the coming years?

Image courtesy of Ed Bailey, Wichita Wind Surge (photo of Pierson Ohl)

Teams value the players they take in the MLB Draft because the process takes multiple years of scouting, building relationships with players, and development in a system. Minnesota viewed the players taken in the 2021 MLB Draft with high regard, but prospects are trade capital for many organizations. The Twins would have liked to keep some of their top picks from this draft, but things don’t always work out that way. 

Here is a quick recap of what the Twins have done with their early-round picks from the 2021 MLB Draft. Chase Petty was the team’s first-round pick (26th overall), and he was traded to Cincinnati for Sonny Gray. The Twins got two All-Star caliber seasons from Gray, and they will receive the 33rd overall pick in the 2024 MLB Draft after he left in free agency. Noah Miller was the team’s supplemental first-round pick (36th overall), and the Twins traded him to Los Angeles last week as part of the deal for Manuel Margot. Steve Hajjar (61st overall) and Christian Encarnacion-Strand (128th overall) were part of the package that brought Tyler Mahle to the Twins. Cade Povich (98th overall) was used to acquire Jorge Lopez and will likely make his big-league debut this season. 

So, who is left in the organization from the 2021 MLB Draft, and which players have big-league futures?

David Festa is developing into the team’s crown jewel from this draft class after he was selected in the 13th round (399th overall). He is in the conversation as the organization’s best pitching prospect and represented the organization at last year’s Futures Game. Twins Daily currently ranks him as the team’s sixth overall prospect, the second-highest-ranked pitcher behind Marco Raya. When the Twins drafted Festa, he had a fastball in the low 90s, but the team worked with his mechanics, and now he consistently hits in the upper 90s. His slider and change-up combination help him keep righties and lefties off-balance at the plate. He finished last season at Triple-A and is expected to debut in 2024. 

Pierson Ohl is another intriguing pick from the team’s 2021 MLB Draft class, as he was taken 30 picks after Festa in the 14th round. Last season, he pitched 127 ⅓ innings with a 3.32 ERA and a 1.06 WHIP between High- and Double-A. Ohl controlled the strike zone with 15 walks and 115 strikeouts. Opposing batters hit .240/.270/.392 (.662) against him in over 500 plate appearances. He likely starts the year at Double-A, where he finished last season, and should make appearances for St. Paul in the season’s second half. 

Jake Rucker is the highest-drafted position player left from the 2021 MLB Draft and has been appearing in spring training games for the Twins. In 2023, he spent the season at Double-A and hit .248/.323/.381 (.704) with 21 doubles, four triples, and nine home runs. Defensively, he played over 100 innings at second, third, first, and left field. If his power continues to develop, he can fill a utility role in the big leagues. 

Notes on Other 2021 Draft Picks

• Christian MacLeod (159th overall): Made 16 starts between Low-A and High-A last season with a 4.08 ERA, a 1.41 WHIP, and 8.8 K/9.
• Travis Adams (189th overall): Pitched nearly 110 innings at Wichita in 2023 with a 1.47 WHIP and a 5.66 ERA. 
• Noah Cardenas (249th overall): Posted a .779 OPS in 90 games for Cedar Rapids in 2023 while being one of the team’s primary catchers. 
• Patrick Winkel (279th overall): He’s a non-roster invitee at spring training after finishing last season at Double-A. In 88 games, he hit .262/.362/.424 (.787) with 27 extra-base hits. 
• Ernie Yake (309th overall): The Twins have been comfortable with him bouncing around to multiple levels in his professional career. Last season, he played four defensive positions and had a .718 OPS. 
• Kyler Fedko (369th overall): Played both corner outfield spots for Cedar Rapids last season and hit .242/.398/.412 (.810) in 59 games. 
• Mikey Perez (399th overall): Can play all over the infield and reached High-A in 2023. Across 67 games, he posted a .674 OPS with 13 extra-base hits. 

It would be great to have Petty, Povich, or Encarnacion-Strand still in the system. However, the organization’s 2021 draft haul still projects to provide value.

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Which player will the Twins regret trading away? When will Festa make his debut? Which other players from the draft class have an MLB future? Leave a COMMENT and start the discussion.

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[Kenny Powers]

It was a heck of draft.  I'm fine dealing prospects (you can't hold onto all of them forever).  It's all about trying to hold onto the good ones and trading away the future duds.  Too bad there isn't a crystal ball in real life.  Example, what if we had dealt Jordan Balazovic (ranked #3 in Baseball America team prospects in 2022) instead of Petty who was ranked #7.....

[sweetmusicviola16]

Festa will be up this season. Lets put it this way, I have zero confidence in DeSclafani pitching over 40-50 innings. Paddock? Maybe a few more. Maybe not. Ober? At some point I would guess that he too will need to be dialed down. Varland and SWR I would project as the first replacements. Should they falter Festa should be near the top of who would be next in line.

[sweetmusicviola16]

Ohl does look interesting at least. 

[Oldgoat_MN]

Winkel's BA, SLG & OPS go up at each level. 

Gotta like the trend.

[Ricky Vaughn]

15 minutes ago, sweetmusicviola16 said:

I have zero confidence in DeSclafani pitching over 40-50 innings. Paddock? Maybe a few more. Maybe not. Ober? At some point I would guess that he too will need to be dialed down.

Why so negative? I get your feelings for DeSclafani, but I see no reason why Paddock can't go 100 innings. I think Ober will be the #2 pitcher by seasons end.

[old nurse]

37 minutes ago, Kenny Powers said:

It was a heck of draft.  I'm fine dealing prospects (you can't hold onto all of them forever).  It's all about trying to hold onto the good ones and trading away the future duds.  Too bad there isn't a crystal ball in real life.  Example, what if we had dealt Jordan Balazovic (ranked #3 in Baseball America team prospects in 2022) instead of Petty who was ranked #7.....

It depends on which prospect ranking service you look at. Balazovic had already fallen out of the  MLB top 100 rankings. That is not a sign of future success. The time to have traded him was after the 21 season. He pitched reasonably well in AA, in 2022 but not a lot of innings.  I doubt Cincinnati would have wanted him 

[nicksaviking]

I didn't care much for that draft class at the time. Petty looks like he's going to be sitting on top prospect lists until he is promoted and CES's big strikeout issues, haven't been an issue for the Reds yet.

But Hajjar and Povich ruined it for me. Two Big Ten pitchers in Rounds 2 and 3? With all apologies to local guy Max Meyer, who was the last good Big Ten starting pitcher in the majors? 44-year-old Rich Hill? Jim Abbot?

[Karbo]

Hind sight being 20/20, there are a few of those trades I'm guessing the Twins wish they could have back.

[CCHOF5yearstoolate]

Main takeaway here is that was an incredible draft from Falvey & co. Secondarily that the two picks they've done the best job developing were 13th and 14th round pitchers, which has become an undeniable trend.

Noah Cardenas is looking like a sneaky good pick, too. 

[JD-TWINS]

41 minutes ago, nicksaviking said:

I didn't care much for that draft class at the time. Petty looks like he's going to be sitting on top prospect lists until he is promoted and CES's big strikeout issues, haven't been an issue for the Reds yet.

But Hajjar and Povich ruined it for me. Two Big Ten pitchers in Rounds 2 and 3? With all apologies to local guy Max Meyer, who was the last good Big Ten starting pitcher in the majors? 44-year-old Rich Hill? Jim Abbot?

Dave Winfield?…..😉

[jorgenswest]

It is encouraging that the Twins are producing enough talent in the minors to both trade for pitching and fill spots on their roster.

[Kenny Powers]

1 hour ago, old nurse said:

It depends on which prospect ranking service you look at. Balazovic had already fallen out of the  MLB top 100 rankings. That is not a sign of future success. The time to have traded him was after the 21 season. He pitched reasonably well in AA, in 2022 but not a lot of innings.  I doubt Cincinnati would have wanted him 

Yes - we have no idea how Cincinnati viewed Balazovic.  I was mainly illustrating how quickly guys can lose value. 

It looks like Petty was traded in March of 2022.  Balazovic still was looked at pretty highly back then...according to what I can find, he was still on a lot of prospect lists in 2022 including:

#85 Baseball America https://www.thebaseballcube.com/content/prospects_mlb/2022~BA/

#78 Baseball Prospectus https://www.baseballprospectus.com/prospects/article/72047/2022-prospects-the-top-101/

And even still ranked high on this site as well:

 

Two years later....not only has he dropped off the prospect lists, but he's dropped off the roster.  And gone unclaimed by every team in MLB. 

Again - hindsight is always perfect.  I just find it super interesting how much we value prospects (myself included).  It's always interesting for me to go back an look at old "top prospect lists" and wonder what we could have gotten in return for some of the busts.

[sweetmusicviola16]

2 hours ago, Ricky Vaughn said:

Why so negative? I get your feelings for DeSclafani, but I see no reason why Paddock can't go 100 innings. I think Ober will be the #2 pitcher by seasons end.

Paddock has managed to pitch 27 innings in 2 years with the Twins. As far as I am concerned he needs to prove it. Until he actually does my confidence in him will remain low.

I mentioned Ober too. Bailey it has been mentioned wants to go for 200 IP this season. I hope he does. But an ML season takes a hard demand on both the physical and mental and it would not surprise me if he falls short of or only equals last seasons 145, in spite of his good intention. Sorry if my comments seem negative, but until I'm shown otherwise I will go by the track record that they have given me to go by.

[Kenny Powers]

17 minutes ago, sweetmusicviola16 said:

Paddock has managed to pitch 27 innings in 2 years with the Twins. As far as I am concerned he needs to prove it. Until he actually does my confidence in him will remain low.

I mentioned Ober too. Bailey it has been mentioned wants to go for 200 IP this season. I hope he does. But an ML season takes a hard demand on both the physical and mental and it would not surprise me if he falls short of or only equals last seasons 145, in spite of his good intention. Sorry if my comments seem negative, but until I'm shown otherwise I will go by the track record that they have given me to go by.

Times have changed and we probably need to redefine what a successful season looks like for a starting pitcher.  It's not 200 innings anymore.  Here are the number of pitchers who hit 200 innings the last two years:

2023 - 5

2022 - 8

Pablo came in at 194 last year and Sonny 184 - both would be considered very good seasons by me.

[old nurse]

2 hours ago, Kenny Powers said:

Yes - we have no idea how Cincinnati viewed Balazovic.  I was mainly illustrating how quickly guys can lose value. 

It looks like Petty was traded in March of 2022.  Balazovic still was looked at pretty highly back then...according to what I can find, he was still on a lot of prospect lists in 2022 including:

#85 Baseball America https://www.thebaseballcube.com/content/prospects_mlb/2022~BA/

#78 Baseball Prospectus https://www.baseballprospectus.com/prospects/article/72047/2022-prospects-the-top-101/

And even still ranked high on this site as well:

 

Two years later....not only has he dropped off the prospect lists, but he's dropped off the roster.  And gone unclaimed by every team in MLB. 

Again - hindsight is always perfect.  I just find it super interesting how much we value prospects (myself included).  It's always interesting for me to go back an look at old "top prospect lists" and wonder what we could have gotten in return for some of the busts.

Hindsight was not needed to say that if they could have made a Sonny Grey type trade in 2021 they should have done so. If he had top of the order potential at that time he would have been highly ranked at the time, not in the low 90s

[mikelink45]

Let's hope for one truly good MLB player from what is left.  We need to get at least one difference maker from each draft to be successful. 

[jkcarew]

Don’t mind trading the prospects. In a couple of instances turns out we got big time duds in return, though. That’s the risk.

The Petty loss is the one that hurts the most…but it’s also the one that worked exactly as hoped in terms of return.

 

[IndyTwinsFan]

6 hours ago, Oldgoat_MN said:

Winkel's BA, SLG & OPS go up at each level. 

Gotta like the trend.

Plus he can catch, to boot.  Even better!

[DocBauer]

Festa has been a heck of a surprise. While he still has to prove he's as good as hoped, he'll get his initial chance to do so sometime this year I think. The stuff plays. The question is maintaining all of his stuff for 5-6 IP.

Ohl's velocity has reportedly climbed in to the mid 90's consistently. With some good secondary offerings and great control, I think he's a fast riser. He probably does start the season at AA due to a numbers crunch if nothing else. But I don't think he'll remain there lone.

Winkel and Cardenas keep flying under the radar as prospects mainly because while they've made steady improvement and a steady climb in the system, neither has any special hit or power tools. But if you go check out their numbers, you can see a couple guys who can swing the bat a little, make some contact, don't K a ton, etc. 

These 4 can still make the 2021 draft payoff for the Twins in a direct manner.

[Jocko87]

That draft has already produced more major league value than some entire years. I do wonder if they kinda planned to trade a lot of those guys with the 5 round draft in 2020 putting a ton of value in the future drafts. No way Jenkins falls to 5 without that odd restriction on prospect flow.

Also, the proper comp for a Petty trade valuation is whoever they pick this year with the QO pick plus 7.6 WAR from Sonny. Petty has to be pretty spectacular to break even on that trade, and I'd still make it every time.

[h2oface]

my comment a week ago from:

Minnesota Twins Acquire Outfielder Manuel Margot from Dodgers in 3-Player Trade

Posted February 27

The 2021 Five. With Miller being traded, that makes all of the first five draft picks of 2021 trade bait.

Chase Petty #26 (Reds/Sonny Gray), Noah Miller #36 (Dodgers/Manuel Margot), Steve Hajjar #61 (Reds/Tyler Mahle) , Cade Povich #98 (Orioles/Jorge Lopez), and Christian Encarnacion-Strand #128 (Reds/Tyler Mahle).

David Festa, the Twins Lucky 13th selection, #399, is still hanging in there.

 

Great article! Thanks for filling the rest in. 😇

Come on, TDers. Please get Paddack out of the horse pen. It is probably gonna be a tough task. One of the posters with the most comments ever still hasn't learned to spell Kirilloff! 😇

[ryan189]

can't take the article seriously if they do no research and see who has been released

[FlyingFinn]

2 hours ago, DocBauer said:

Ohl's velocity has reportedly climbed in to the mid 90's consistently.

Hey, I didn't know that. That is great news! I thought he would flame out because he pitched like me, a soft, strike throwing machine (okay, okay - I topped out in the 70's and my pitching days were done by high school).

[Rosterman]

This is a solid draft class, considering the talent that has moved on. Most of these guys might need to be considered for protection from the Rule 5 this off-season. Or made available for further trades. 

And also makes you realize how many players from any draft class MAY make the majors. And it is NOT always just the guys on top.

[Mark G]

12 hours ago, Kenny Powers said:

Times have changed and we probably need to redefine what a successful season looks like for a starting pitcher.  It's not 200 innings anymore.  Here are the number of pitchers who hit 200 innings the last two years:

2023 - 5

2022 - 8

Pablo came in at 194 last year and Sonny 184 - both would be considered very good seasons by me.

We may very well need to, but I still refuse to.  Starting pitchers are not the ones redefining themselves; front offices and coaching staffs are doing it for them.  

I am a huge Sonny fan; he stood up for himself and called out the manager for not letting him pitch his game.  I am a fan of his passion and his desire to do his job.  But when it comes to starting pitching, this is all I need to know:  yes, Sonny had a great ERA, and some other underlying stats that looked good beyond the record, but he was 8-8 and averaged just over 5 2/3 innings per start.  And if Gerrit Cole had gotten hit by a truck on the way to the All Star game, he would have won the Cy Young award.  That says everything that needs to be said about today's starting pitching in MLB.  

The most frustrating part for me, is that the less they produce the more they get paid.  The best starting pitchers today command so much money they price out half the teams in MLB, and produce less than previous pitchers from the 1880's to the 1980's.  I respect very much what you are saying, and I know I am a minority of.....oh, I don't know........maybe one, but 13 pitchers in two years (and some of the pitchers may have been one of the few in both years, so maybe not even 13) putting up a minimum of 200 innings pitched shows not just how much the game has changed, but how much the game has fallen.  20 million a year starting pitchers have to be bailed out game after game by 3 million a year relievers, and when they can't make all 32 starts, minimum wage minor league call ups start in their place.  And yet we all crave the 20 mil starters, thinking about October (if we happen to get there).  As the poet once said, it is to laugh.  And, yet, it is still my 2nd favorite sport out there (behind bowling, of course).  😉  Nobody can relieve the bowler, and there is no defense; you go it alone.  Starting pitchers could learn a thing or two spending a weekend with them.  😊

 

[Otaknam]

An interesting list. I hope Festa does have a high upside and helps this year, but calling him the “crown jewel” of this draft seems a little hyperbolic. It’s more like he’s the last player standing after all the trades. 

[Trov]

I do not understand people getting upset so much about trading prospects.  Not every prospect will work out, pitchers are some of the most volatile, and high school pitchers even more.  Petty has been doing well, but many pitchers do well at lower minor leagues. He only has 8 innings at AA.  Could he turn out to be a good pitcher yes, but at the time we also though Balzavic was going to be good, he dropped off a cliff prospect wise. 

The fact that we got 2 seasons from Gray for him, and he would is still at least 1 year from MLB, to me means we got a good deal, even if he turns out to be a good pitcher he was not helping us the 2 years we got from Gray. 

In terms of the Mahle trade, yeah he was injured, common for pitchers, and we got overall burned.  However, where do you fit the guys we traded away in the teams pecking order?   CES most likely is in minors for us, possibly at MLB level fighting for reps at first.  Steve Hajjar would be in minors and is not even in top 30 ranking of Cleveland prospects, he got traded to them. If you want to talk about the third piece, Steer, he would be in similar spot as CES being a bench guy fighting for reps at 2nd now behind Julien or first, or some outfield. He would have filled the Farmer roll most likely, absent the SS fill in. That is if we gave him a shot.  Reds had the spot open.

Point is, many of the guys we traded away over last few years would have been down our depth chart or close with others we have. People always look at who we sent away, and compare them to who we got in return in trade, but never look at who had or got to replace them in depth charts. Sure, could we have used the guys in the Mahle trade for other trade yeah and going back that would have been better. 

[Melissa]

Is the lead photo of Festa?

As always, TD doesn’t bother to caption its photos. I’m now thinking this is a deliberate click bait-ish strategy. One sees the photo without identifying name or number and has to read way into the article to be able to tell or guess which person is being featured in the photo.

Sigh.