The Leftovers: Who Remains from the Twins 2021 Draft Class?

It was a heck of draft.  I'm fine dealing prospects (you can't hold onto all of them forever).  It's all about trying to hold onto the good ones and trading away the future duds.  Too bad there isn't a crystal ball in real life.  Example, what if we had dealt Jordan Balazovic (ranked #3 in Baseball America team prospects in 2022) instead of Petty who was ranked #7.....

Festa will be up this season. Lets put it this way, I have zero confidence in DeSclafani pitching over 40-50 innings. Paddock? Maybe a few more. Maybe not. Ober? At some point I would guess that he too will need to be dialed down. Varland and SWR I would project as the first replacements. Should they falter Festa should be near the top of who would be next in line.

Ohl does look interesting at least. 

15 minutes ago, sweetmusicviola16 said:

I have zero confidence in DeSclafani pitching over 40-50 innings. Paddock? Maybe a few more. Maybe not. Ober? At some point I would guess that he too will need to be dialed down.

Why so negative? I get your feelings for DeSclafani, but I see no reason why Paddock can't go 100 innings. I think Ober will be the #2 pitcher by seasons end.

37 minutes ago, Kenny Powers said:

It was a heck of draft.  I'm fine dealing prospects (you can't hold onto all of them forever).  It's all about trying to hold onto the good ones and trading away the future duds.  Too bad there isn't a crystal ball in real life.  Example, what if we had dealt Jordan Balazovic (ranked #3 in Baseball America team prospects in 2022) instead of Petty who was ranked #7.....

It depends on which prospect ranking service you look at. Balazovic had already fallen out of the  MLB top 100 rankings. That is not a sign of future success. The time to have traded him was after the 21 season. He pitched reasonably well in AA, in 2022 but not a lot of innings.  I doubt Cincinnati would have wanted him 

It is encouraging that the Twins are producing enough talent in the minors to both trade for pitching and fill spots on their roster.

1 hour ago, old nurse said:

It depends on which prospect ranking service you look at. Balazovic had already fallen out of the  MLB top 100 rankings. That is not a sign of future success. The time to have traded him was after the 21 season. He pitched reasonably well in AA, in 2022 but not a lot of innings.  I doubt Cincinnati would have wanted him 

Yes - we have no idea how Cincinnati viewed Balazovic.  I was mainly illustrating how quickly guys can lose value. 

It looks like Petty was traded in March of 2022.  Balazovic still was looked at pretty highly back then...according to what I can find, he was still on a lot of prospect lists in 2022 including:

#85 Baseball America https://www.thebaseballcube.com/content/prospects_mlb/2022~BA/

#78 Baseball Prospectus https://www.baseballprospectus.com/prospects/article/72047/2022-prospects-the-top-101/

And even still ranked high on this site as well:

Two years later....not only has he dropped off the prospect lists, but he's dropped off the roster.  And gone unclaimed by every team in MLB. 

Again - hindsight is always perfect.  I just find it super interesting how much we value prospects (myself included).  It's always interesting for me to go back an look at old "top prospect lists" and wonder what we could have gotten in return for some of the busts.

2 hours ago, Ricky Vaughn said:

Why so negative? I get your feelings for DeSclafani, but I see no reason why Paddock can't go 100 innings. I think Ober will be the #2 pitcher by seasons end.

Paddock has managed to pitch 27 innings in 2 years with the Twins. As far as I am concerned he needs to prove it. Until he actually does my confidence in him will remain low.

I mentioned Ober too. Bailey it has been mentioned wants to go for 200 IP this season. I hope he does. But an ML season takes a hard demand on both the physical and mental and it would not surprise me if he falls short of or only equals last seasons 145, in spite of his good intention. Sorry if my comments seem negative, but until I'm shown otherwise I will go by the track record that they have given me to go by.

17 minutes ago, sweetmusicviola16 said:

Paddock has managed to pitch 27 innings in 2 years with the Twins. As far as I am concerned he needs to prove it. Until he actually does my confidence in him will remain low.

I mentioned Ober too. Bailey it has been mentioned wants to go for 200 IP this season. I hope he does. But an ML season takes a hard demand on both the physical and mental and it would not surprise me if he falls short of or only equals last seasons 145, in spite of his good intention. Sorry if my comments seem negative, but until I'm shown otherwise I will go by the track record that they have given me to go by.

Times have changed and we probably need to redefine what a successful season looks like for a starting pitcher.  It's not 200 innings anymore.  Here are the number of pitchers who hit 200 innings the last two years:

2023 - 5

2022 - 8

Pablo came in at 194 last year and Sonny 184 - both would be considered very good seasons by me.

2 hours ago, Kenny Powers said:

Yes - we have no idea how Cincinnati viewed Balazovic.  I was mainly illustrating how quickly guys can lose value. 

It looks like Petty was traded in March of 2022.  Balazovic still was looked at pretty highly back then...according to what I can find, he was still on a lot of prospect lists in 2022 including:

#85 Baseball America https://www.thebaseballcube.com/content/prospects_mlb/2022~BA/

#78 Baseball Prospectus https://www.baseballprospectus.com/prospects/article/72047/2022-prospects-the-top-101/

And even still ranked high on this site as well:

 

Two years later....not only has he dropped off the prospect lists, but he's dropped off the roster.  And gone unclaimed by every team in MLB. 

Again - hindsight is always perfect.  I just find it super interesting how much we value prospects (myself included).  It's always interesting for me to go back an look at old "top prospect lists" and wonder what we could have gotten in return for some of the busts.

Hindsight was not needed to say that if they could have made a Sonny Grey type trade in 2021 they should have done so. If he had top of the order potential at that time he would have been highly ranked at the time, not in the low 90s

Don’t mind trading the prospects. In a couple of instances turns out we got big time duds in return, though. That’s the risk.

The Petty loss is the one that hurts the most…but it’s also the one that worked exactly as hoped in terms of return.

can't take the article seriously if they do no research and see who has been released

2 hours ago, DocBauer said:

Ohl's velocity has reportedly climbed in to the mid 90's consistently.

Hey, I didn't know that. That is great news! I thought he would flame out because he pitched like me, a soft, strike throwing machine (okay, okay - I topped out in the 70's and my pitching days were done by high school).

This is a solid draft class, considering the talent that has moved on. Most of these guys might need to be considered for protection from the Rule 5 this off-season. Or made available for further trades. 

And also makes you realize how many players from any draft class MAY make the majors. And it is NOT always just the guys on top.

12 hours ago, Kenny Powers said:

Times have changed and we probably need to redefine what a successful season looks like for a starting pitcher.  It's not 200 innings anymore.  Here are the number of pitchers who hit 200 innings the last two years:

2023 - 5

2022 - 8

Pablo came in at 194 last year and Sonny 184 - both would be considered very good seasons by me.

We may very well need to, but I still refuse to.  Starting pitchers are not the ones redefining themselves; front offices and coaching staffs are doing it for them.  

I am a huge Sonny fan; he stood up for himself and called out the manager for not letting him pitch his game.  I am a fan of his passion and his desire to do his job.  But when it comes to starting pitching, this is all I need to know:  yes, Sonny had a great ERA, and some other underlying stats that looked good beyond the record, but he was 8-8 and averaged just over 5 2/3 innings per start.  And if Gerrit Cole had gotten hit by a truck on the way to the All Star game, he would have won the Cy Young award.  That says everything that needs to be said about today's starting pitching in MLB.  

The most frustrating part for me, is that the less they produce the more they get paid.  The best starting pitchers today command so much money they price out half the teams in MLB, and produce less than previous pitchers from the 1880's to the 1980's.  I respect very much what you are saying, and I know I am a minority of.....oh, I don't know........maybe one, but 13 pitchers in two years (and some of the pitchers may have been one of the few in both years, so maybe not even 13) putting up a minimum of 200 innings pitched shows not just how much the game has changed, but how much the game has fallen.  20 million a year starting pitchers have to be bailed out game after game by 3 million a year relievers, and when they can't make all 32 starts, minimum wage minor league call ups start in their place.  And yet we all crave the 20 mil starters, thinking about October (if we happen to get there).  As the poet once said, it is to laugh.  And, yet, it is still my 2nd favorite sport out there (behind bowling, of course).  😉  Nobody can relieve the bowler, and there is no defense; you go it alone.  Starting pitchers could learn a thing or two spending a weekend with them.  😊

An interesting list. I hope Festa does have a high upside and helps this year, but calling him the “crown jewel” of this draft seems a little hyperbolic. It’s more like he’s the last player standing after all the trades. 

I do not understand people getting upset so much about trading prospects.  Not every prospect will work out, pitchers are some of the most volatile, and high school pitchers even more.  Petty has been doing well, but many pitchers do well at lower minor leagues. He only has 8 innings at AA.  Could he turn out to be a good pitcher yes, but at the time we also though Balzavic was going to be good, he dropped off a cliff prospect wise. 

The fact that we got 2 seasons from Gray for him, and he would is still at least 1 year from MLB, to me means we got a good deal, even if he turns out to be a good pitcher he was not helping us the 2 years we got from Gray. 

In terms of the Mahle trade, yeah he was injured, common for pitchers, and we got overall burned.  However, where do you fit the guys we traded away in the teams pecking order?   CES most likely is in minors for us, possibly at MLB level fighting for reps at first.  Steve Hajjar would be in minors and is not even in top 30 ranking of Cleveland prospects, he got traded to them. If you want to talk about the third piece, Steer, he would be in similar spot as CES being a bench guy fighting for reps at 2nd now behind Julien or first, or some outfield. He would have filled the Farmer roll most likely, absent the SS fill in. That is if we gave him a shot.  Reds had the spot open.

Point is, many of the guys we traded away over last few years would have been down our depth chart or close with others we have. People always look at who we sent away, and compare them to who we got in return in trade, but never look at who had or got to replace them in depth charts. Sure, could we have used the guys in the Mahle trade for other trade yeah and going back that would have been better. 

Is the lead photo of Festa?

As always, TD doesn’t bother to caption its photos. I’m now thinking this is a deliberate click bait-ish strategy. One sees the photo without identifying name or number and has to read way into the article to be able to tell or guess which person is being featured in the photo.

Sigh.