What's Left in Pitching Free Agency for the Twins?

[Nick Nelson]

Minnesota's lone offseason rotation addition and their projected No. 5 starter is already facing health uncertainty. If the Twins are able find some coins under the couch cushion, could they make a late final addition to bolster the starting staff?

Image courtesy of Orlando Ramirez, Brad Mills, Dan Hamilton-USA TODAY Sports

The Twins haven't exactly had great luck in acquiring starters with known health concerns; Tyler Mahle and Chris Paddack being banner examples. So it wasn't terribly surprising to hear that Anthony DeSclafani, who missed the second half last year with an elbow injury, has experienced renewed soreness while throwing in camp, putting him behind schedule in his build-up.

The Twins are saying they still expect DeSclafani to be ready for Opening Day. We'll see. But their starting pitching safety net is already starting to look shaky. Last year their rotation thrived in part because layers of depth enabled them to endure a major mid-season injury (Mahle) without missing a beat. If DeSclafani can't rebound, the Twins are burning that contingency already by elevating Louie Varland into the rotation, and the depth behind him is entirely unproven. 

Knowing how much this front office enjoys having those layers of experienced depth, and how pivotal this element was to the team's success last year, it's easy to see the appeal of adding another MLB starter with the season opener still three weeks away. Of course, there's a sticking point, because we also know the front office appears to be right up against an ownership-imposed spending cap.

The good news (for them) is that supply seems to be outweighing demand at this late juncture of the offseason. Quite a few starters are still looking for jobs, and if they want to have any chance at building up to be ready at the start of the season, they need to get into camps ASAP. That might mean accepting low-dollar guarantees or even minor-league contracts.

From MLB's free agent tracker, here's a list of noteworthy remaining names in free agency. I'm skipping Blake Snell and Jordan Montgomery, given that Joe Pohlad explicitly ruled out that type of signing, but with Scott Boras and the Twins you never know. I'm also skipping Trevor Bauer, because, nah. (If you feel inclined to bring his name up in the comments, please, don't. It's not happening.)

Here are 11 names worth keeping an eye on in the remaining free agent pool.

Zack Greinke: At last check he was still preparing to pitch this year, coming off an ugly age-39 season with the Royals. Twins came close to signing him ahead of the 2022 season.

Michael Lorenzen: A clear-cut mid-rotation arm, but he did make the All-Star Game last year. Twins reportedly showed interest in him earlier in the offseason. Could they circle back?

Mike Clevinger: Pitched pretty well for the White Sox last year and has Derek Falvey ties from Cleveland. But his stuff hasn't been the same since Tommy John surgery in 2021, and his personality probably doesn't fit the clubhouse vibe Falvey's trying to build.

Rich Hill: Threw 146 innings last year at age 43, though his effectiveness waned. Has history with the Twins, for whom he was very effective in the shortened 2020 season. He might be a better candidate to keep an eye on as a midseason addition. As Hill admitted last October: “I have a pretty good gauge and a monitor on my body. And I think half a season is much more palatable than a full season.” 

Johnny Cueto: As of early February he was still looking for a gig. Might be open a minor-league contract at this point. Cueto was horrible last year but quite good for the White Sox in 2022 after signing a week into the season.

 

Noah Syndergaard: Perhaps the most intriguing name on this list. Syndergaard is still only 31 and was a legit frontliner in the early stage of his career. The fact he's still available suggests teams aren't buying into a comeback (or he's stubborn on a high price tag) but on a low-risk deal he'd offer some exciting lighting-in-a-bottle upside.

Jake Odorizzi: Coming off a missed season due to shoulder surgery, Odorizzi showcased his progress for teams recently and the Twins were among those in attendance. Like with Hill, there's history of a successful partnership here.

Brad Keller: After a promising start to his career with the Royals, he's posted a 5.14 ERA in the past three seasons and struggled with major shoulder issues last year. But he's only 28 and should be available on a minors deal.

Dallas Keuchel: Had some fun moments during his time with the Twins last year, although it required a lot of batted-ball luck, as he showed no remaining ability to induce whiffs. Keuchel continues to grind in efforts to keep his career going. 

Matthew Boyd and Vince Velasquez: I mention them because the Twins have a history of signing guys who are recovering from Tommy John surgery (i.e. Michael Pineda and Brock Stewart). Both Boyd and Velasquez underwent elbow surgery midway through 2023 and won't be available until the second half at the earliest.

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I'd love to hear your thoughts on the remaining free agent market. Do any of these names do anything for you on a low-stakes deal? Or are you comfortable enough with the starting pitching depth as is?

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[TwinsDr2021]

Sanchez, Happ or Shoemaker aren't available?

[Cory Engelhardt]

I like Varland, SWR and Canterino all more. Festa eventually too, and Dobnak more than most on this list.

I think depth wise they are ok. When they add a pitcher, I want it for the front of the rotation 

[Riverbrian]

If you are trying to find a pitcher.

The players listed will keep you from finding a pitcher. 

 

[DJL44]

I see a lot of people disparaging Clevinger as a "bad clubhouse fit" with no explanation which is a pretty bad way to smear someone's character without any evidence.

If they actually have a strong clubhouse then it can survive one person with a prickly personality. If they can't survive that, then they have a fragile, weak clubhouse culture.

[DJL44]

It's likely that the teams who eventually sign Montgomery and Snell will need to open up payroll room by trading away one of their current starters. The Twins should be calling to check the prices.

[Cory Engelhardt]

5 minutes ago, DJL44 said:

I see a lot of people disparaging Clevinger as a "bad clubhouse fit" with no explanation which is a pretty bad way to smear someone's character without any evidence.

If they actually have a strong clubhouse then it can survive one person with a prickly personality. If they can't survive that, then they have a fragile, weak clubhouse culture.

Falvey certainly knows of his potential character fit, no? 
And even if charges never came, strong allegations of both domestic abuse and child abuse don’t work well with a healthy clubhouse 

[JD-TWINS]

7 minutes ago, DJL44 said:

I see a lot of people disparaging Clevinger as a "bad clubhouse fit" with no explanation which is a pretty bad way to smear someone's character without any evidence.

If they actually have a strong clubhouse then it can survive one person with a prickly personality. If they can't survive that, then they have a fragile, weak clubhouse culture.

Have been a proponent of signing Clevinger since December. My thought was he was labeled over a domestic abuse allegation - seemed to be pretty clear that he was exonerated through League & Criminal investigations. However, if his personality outside of this stuff isn’t very cohesive with “the group”, he’s not worth investing $15M plus.

Varland - SWR - Festa can piece together 150 innings or more without issue! They may not look like Sonny Gray but they can be very competitive as a whole.

Move on with the guys in the system ……. Kuechel, to me would be the only guy because there’s a mutual knowledge of the other side. A comfort within the Clubhouse. Last resort move.

[TSMN]

Ignore Bauer, at the league minimum, but bring up Rich Hill and Clevinger? I wish the Polads would sell to someone who's actually interested in winning another WS.

[Doctor Gast]

Varland didn't have any experience until last year. SWR & Headricks have gotten their feet wet. Festa & Canterino are soon ready, I'm a strong believer in giving our promising SPs who have graduated from AAA a role in long relief to gather MLB experience. I agree with Cory & Brian we need a frontline SP. Yet, I'm not against signing anyone desperate, to a minor league contract

[DJL44]

1 hour ago, Doctor Gast said:

I'm not against signing anyone desperate, to a minor league contract

I am against that. The Twins have plenty of minor league depth in AAA. Varland, Woods-Richardson, Headrick, Canterino, Festa, Dobnak is a full rotation. They need upside, not a warm body.

edited: Forgot SWR and he might be the best of the bunch. There are already too many pitchers for St. Paul's rotation. Someone is going to be stuck in Double-A.

Edited March 4, 2024 by DJL44
added SWR

[AlGoreRythm]

33 minutes ago, DJL44 said:

I see a lot of people disparaging Clevinger as a "bad clubhouse fit" with no explanation which is a pretty bad way to smear someone's character without any evidence.

If they actually have a strong clubhouse then it can survive one person with a prickly personality. If they can't survive that, then they have a fragile, weak clubhouse culture.

Clevinger was being investigated due allegations of domestic abuse a year or two ago. Regardless of the claim's veracity, that's not someone the Twins are interested in bringing into the clubhouse, and I don't blame them.

[DJL44]

30 minutes ago, Cory Engelhardt said:

Falvey certainly knows of his potential character fit, no? 

Good to know you will approve of his signing if Falvey okays it.

[Mark G]

Pitching is a commodity a team cannot do without.  And the economic fact of life in MLB is that the better the pitching, the more the cost; it is in direct correlation.  If the team does not want to spend more money, then it will have to roll the dice with what they have right now.

They appear to be willing to go into the season with reduced spending, as this division will not take much to win.  October, on the other hand?  We will see when the trade deadline comes, it looks like, as to how serious they are.  As for now, it looks like we dance with the date we brought, which is our in home depth.  Here is hoping they come through.    

[DJL44]

3 minutes ago, AlGoreRythm said:

Clevinger was being investigated due allegations of domestic abuse a year or two ago. Regardless of the claim's veracity, that's not someone the Twins are interested in bringing into the clubhouse, and I don't blame them.

Still waiting for the team to throw Kirby Puckett out of their Hall of Fame. I'll be patient.

[CCHOF5yearstoolate]

39 minutes ago, DJL44 said:

I see a lot of people disparaging Clevinger as a "bad clubhouse fit" with no explanation which is a pretty bad way to smear someone's character without any evidence.

If they actually have a strong clubhouse then it can survive one person with a prickly personality. If they can't survive that, then they have a fragile, weak clubhouse culture.

Read up on Clevinger's baby momma. That's likely the reason the Twins won't sign him. 

[Cory Engelhardt]

5 minutes ago, DJL44 said:

Good to know you will approve of his signing if Falvey okays it.

I never said that. But Falvey certainly knows him from his time in Cleveland. You don’t think Falvey (and others) have the entire book on player personality fits?

[DJL44]

4 minutes ago, CCHOF5yearstoolate said:

Read up on Clevinger's baby momma. That's likely the reason the Twins won't sign him. 

The Twins haven't spent money on ANY starting pitchers this offseason. That's likely the reason the Twins won't sign him - he would cost money.

[DJL44]

Just now, Cory Engelhardt said:

I never said that. But Falvey certainly knows him from his time in Cleveland. You don’t think Falvey (and others) have the entire book on player personality fits?

You were the one who appealed to Falvey's authority. If you're going to outsource your opinion to not sign him to Falvey then you should approve if Falvey eventually does sign him.

[Major League Ready]

3 hours ago, AlGoreRythm said:

Clevinger was being investigated due allegations of domestic abuse a year or two ago. Regardless of the claim's veracity, that's not someone the Twins are interested in bringing into the clubhouse, and I don't blame them.

We should ignore if the allegations had any veracity?  Really, we should ignore the facts if he was falsely accused?  

Usually where there is smoke there is fire.  He is not worth the disruption if there are character issues but to banish him based on accusation without even considering the merit of the allegations is just not right.

[USAFChief]

40 minutes ago, DJL44 said:

It's likely that the teams who eventually sign Montgomery and Snell will need to open up payroll room by trading away one of their current starters. The Twins should be calling to check the prices.

This makes zero sense. Any team adding Snell or Montgomery would be removing their worst starter from their rotation. How does that pitcher help the Twins? 

Or, if said team is shedding salary, we know the Twins are out.

[DJL44]

Just now, USAFChief said:

This makes zero sense. Any team adding Snell or Montgomery would be removing their worst starter from their rotation. How does that pitcher help the Twins? 

Or, if said team is shedding salary, we know the Twins are out.

This is not necessarily true. If the Red Sox sign Montgomery then they might be interested in moving Nick Pivetta, who only has 1 year and $7.5M left on his contract. The Angels have 3 lefties in their rotation already and would probably move one of them if they signed Montgomery or Snell. Neither team is expected to contend in 2024 but they might want to do some bargain shopping as two of the few remaining teams with payroll flexibility and room under the luxury tax. They would be looking for prospects, not immediate help, in any trade.

[Cory Engelhardt]

10 minutes ago, DJL44 said:

You were the one who appealed to Falvey's authority. If you're going to outsource your opinion to not sign him to Falvey then you should approve if Falvey eventually does sign him.

I'm not the one making player decisions for a baseball team that we follow though, am I? I mean, if every team or every brand or every corporation in this world had to align with every single thing that I agree with, then I wouldn't be able to function or live in a society right?

This is just a baseball game in the end. The Twins made such a large point when they signed Nelson Cruz that they wanted him for his bat AND for how great he will be in the clubhouse. Having a strong clubhouse, they've said on a number of occasions, is something that they strive for, as it helps build winning in their opinion.

I will say, IF Falvey were to agree to sign someone like Clevinger, I would think the team would be comfortable signing him and adding him to the clubhouse. Doesn't mean I have to like it or not, it just means that Falvey et al decided he could be a fit.

Based on their past acquisitions, I'd be surprised.

 

[Trov]

I doubt they sign any of them to MLB contract, but if any will take a minor league deal with opt outs Twins may go with that. They have options that may have more upside than any of the names on the list.  Signing any to MLB deal will take someone off the 40 man roster.  So do not expect anyone to sign until 60 day DL moves get made, if any, unless again they are on minor league deals. They have a few guys in AAA that could come up and be just as good as any on the list, if not better. Why block them? 

[specialiststeve]

Our staff is fine... the # 5 spot "should be" the spot we use a Varland or other prospects to see what they have. If it is a shuttle to see who can handle it so be it. 

Would be fine with another Vet but likely would have to be a minor league deal which the "better" of the ones mentioned likely would not want and are looking for a major league deal. 

If Thor would take a minor league deal that is the direction I would go. He clearly is not himself but this coaching staff seems to get the best out of guys most of the time and at only 31 may have a few years left. Minor league deal that if turns into a major league deal gets him say 3-5 mil? 

[Mark G]

2 minutes ago, Trov said:

I doubt they sign any of them to MLB contract, but if any will take a minor league deal with opt outs Twins may go with that. They have options that may have more upside than any of the names on the list.  Signing any to MLB deal will take someone off the 40 man roster.  So do not expect anyone to sign until 60 day DL moves get made, if any, unless again they are on minor league deals. They have a few guys in AAA that could come up and be just as good as any on the list, if not better. Why block them? 

I have no idea if any of our AAA guys are better, necessarily, than some of the names mentioned, but I concur 100% that if we sign someone to a major league contract someone has to go from the 40.  And that would be a decision we might not want to make (I sure don't) at this point in time.  Not for the caliber we are looking at from the outside.  

[DJL44]

Syndergaard is interesting. I think he still has the stuff to extend his career as a reliever. The only problem with that plan is he's the worst pitcher in the major leagues at holding runners.

Many of the starting pitcher candidates listed above should be trying to find a spot in the bullpen, not in a big-league rotation.

[USAFChief]

22 minutes ago, DJL44 said:

This is not necessarily true. If the Red Sox sign Montgomery then they might be interested in moving Nick Pivetta, who only has 1 year and $7.5M left on his contract. The Angels have 3 lefties in their rotation already and would probably move one of them if they signed Montgomery or Snell. Neither team is expected to contend in 2024 but they might want to do some bargain shopping as two of the few remaining teams with payroll flexibility and room under the luxury tax. They would be looking for prospects, not immediate help, in any trade.

Neither team is expected to contend in 2024, but they're signing Snell or Montgomery, and then trading a viable starter to the Twins? For, in your words, salary space?

Can't see how any of that makes sense. Particularly the part about the Twins giving someone salary relief. 

As for Nick Pivetta...as I said, how does that help the Twins?

[chinmusic]

37 minutes ago, Mark G said:

We will see when the trade deadline comes, it looks like, as to how serious they are

I agree. It depends how things play out in the first half, and for other teams as well. Dylan Cease, anyone?

[DJL44]

1 minute ago, USAFChief said:

Neither team is expected to contend in 2024, but they're signing Snell or Montgomery

Both would be long-term acquisitions, not just for 2024. Snell and Montgomery haven't signed yet because there are no contenders left with room in the budget to pay them. They may have to settle for a non-contender with room in the budget to pay them.