Projections, Comps, and Royce Lewis's Future

[Cody Pirkl]

After a start delayed by rehab from his 2022 torn ACL, Royce Lewis had an unbelievable 2023 season. Good health will be a must moving forward, but what can we expect from the third baseman if he can stay on the field?

Image courtesy of Matt Blewett-USA TODAY Sports

PECOTA takes on the difficult task of finding player comparisons every year, based on what they’ve already accomplished and projected to accomplish in the future. Royce Lewis has his fair share of question marks, and there’s a wide range of outcomes regarding the kind of player he can be for the rest of his career. To which players does Lewis compare best so far, according to PECOTA?

Wilmer Flores
Flores has had a solid career, while flying under the radar. He's never shown elite walk rates or excessive whiff rates, a profile many expect to see from Royce Lewis. After a slow start to his career, he’s finished each of the last eight seasons as an above-league-average hitter. After moving around the infield, Flores has primarily settled in at first base as he’s reached his early 30s, but this is a comparison to the younger Flores, who primarily played on the left side of the infield. In parts of eleven seasons, Flores has slashed a respectable .264/.319/.441.

While Flores isn’t the generational player the Twins hope Lewis can become, there are worse outcomes for Lewis, as a player who’s lost a ton of time to injury and has some red flags for regression. A Flores-level outcome may sound disappointing, but he’s been a solid contributor to some great teams over the years.

Ketel Marte
Marte is cut from the same cloth when it comes to offensive approach. He’s had something of an up-and-down career. Unlike Flores, Marte has shown superstar upside for at least a season here and there. He's been a valuable contributor year in and year out, while occasionally popping a .900+ OPS season, as he did in 2019 and 2021. 

Like Lewis, Marte has suffered injuries that have held him back on occasion. He’s had a few “what if” seasons as he’s dealt with hamstring issues, though he’s been a core piece for Arizona when on the field and, at times, one of the premier bats in all of baseball. Marte may not be a perennial MVP candidate, but Lewis following something resembling this career path is an intriguing notion. It's not hard to envision him spending at least a year or two moonlighting in the outfield, as Marte has done over his arc.

Nolan Arenado
Arenado is the 99th-percentile outcome of any player who bursts onto the MLB scene. With a career OPS of .871 and hours of highlight-reel plays under his belt at third base, Arenado is on a path to the Hall of Fame. He’s yet another player who relies on consistent, high-quality contact, rather than taking his walks or selling out for power.

It’s unfair to expect any player to have an Arenado-level career, which is why PECOTA even mentioning him as a Lewis comp is impressive. Lewis showed in his debut that he has the talent to be a special player, and no matter how unlikely this outcome is, it’s worth being excited, knowing some experts can at least see a scenario where he follows this path.

Bonus: Aramis Ramírez
While PECOTA didn’t compare Lewis to Aramis Ramírez, it’s worth mentioning the beloved former third baseman as a comparison. Ramírez struck out 26.2% of the time in his rookie season, and never eclipsed 18% again in his 18-year career. He only walked 10% of the time twice. While he had some great years as a defender at third base, Ramírez was best known for his bat, particularly in the clutch. He owned a career slash line of .308/.381/.531 in high-leverage situations. Some may not believe in the “clutch gene,” but Ramírez proved he was a player you wanted up with the game on the line for his entire career--one that lasted just under twenty years.

Ramírez is another player whose plate approach matches what should be expected from Lewis moving forward. While Lewis came up as a shortstop, he’s more good than great as a defender at third base. Though it comes in a small sample, Lewis has no shortage of enormous hits in his young career, and that’s reflected in his high-leverage slash line of .441/.472/.971. With the game on the line, Lewis is the man you want at the plate. For those who followed the Cubs and Brewers in the 2000s and the 2010s, the comparison to Ramírez seems spot-on. If he could stick around Twins Territory for a decade or so and do what Ramírez spent much of his career doing, Lewis would soar above any of the current projection systems' expectations for him.

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Which PECOTA comparison seems the most likely outcome for Royce Lewis? Is there another player that sticks out as a good comparison to that PECOTA missed, such as Aramis Ramirez? Let us know below!

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[Doctor Gast]

You can try to compare his physical talents to other players but Lewis's best attributes are intangible, like his fire, leadership, feel for the game, and as you mentioned the clutch gene so comps really don't do him justice.

[terrydactyls]

In the brief time he played last year, I thought his enthusiasm and leadership potential were his best attributes.  

[akmanak]

Due to his injuries and inability to stay healthy in his short career , I am not sold that this isn't going to be a Buxton 2.0 

 

I am having a difficult time understanding the difficulty of this team in the regards to keeping players healthy. I understand injuries happen but not to this extent. 

 

Lewis brings a tremendous amount of energy to this team, but so did Buxton.  Same type of personality, but all that is for not if he can't stay healthy. 

[Karbo]

Due to the injuries, its hard to know which way he goes. Was last year one of those "career" years or was he just starting an amazing career? IMO he has all the tools to be a perennial all star!

[miracleb]

If Lewis hit as poorly as Vasquez last year, we wouldn't be talking about his enthusiasm or leadership.  His best attributes are that he is looking like the #3 batter in the Twins order for the next 6-7 years +.   I do like the Aramis Ramirez comparison.  Looking at Ramirez's numbers, I feel like I should know more about him (than I do) because he had a 10+ year stretch that was basically awesome! 

[Fatbat]

There is a young crop of allstars across MLB and Lewis is right in the middle of them. We shouldn’t even be worried about the previous injuries. Sit back and watch clutchness. Royce is the show. 

[arby58]

14 minutes ago, akmanak said:

Due to his injuries and inability to stay healthy in his short career , I am not sold that this isn't going to be a Buxton 2.0 

 

I am having a difficult time understanding the difficulty of this team in the regards to keeping players healthy. I understand injuries happen but not to this extent. 

The Twins had the sixth most games lost due to injury in 2023 (1,804). The team with the most games lost was the Dodgers, with 2,465. The team with the fewest games lost was the Guardians (717). That said, six of the eight teams with the fewest lost days made the play-offs.

Overall, lost games were up 6.1% for all of MLB in 2023. 

[CRF]

There's nothing I'd like to see more...than to have Royce enjoy a full, healthy, season and see what kinds of numbers he puts up. I'm really looking forward to it. 

[Trov]

What Lewis brings that numbers will not show is his desire to win, and his understanding of the situation.  He has worked through many injuries, and hopefully no more really pop up.  However, what really impressed me last year, not just the grand slams, but when he would come up late in games in big at bats he knew that a single may get it done so he wanted to make sure he got the ball in play.  He got some hits that were not pretty, but he knew putting the ball in play is better than swinging for fence and missing when a single will get it done. He is willing to adjust to the situation, that is something superstars can do. 

[CCHOF5yearstoolate]

1 hour ago, akmanak said:

I am having a difficult time understanding the difficulty of this team in the regards to keeping players healthy. I understand injuries happen but not to this extent. 

It just happens. Nothing more to it. Red Sox had something similar with Nomar and then Pedroia back-to-back in the early aughts.

[DJL44]

Ron Cey is another comp. 130 OPS+ and good defense during his prime. 6 time all-star.

[Byrdman]

Royce will be the face of the team and multiple time all-star. I cant wait to see what he can do with a full season. 

[tony&rodney]

Royce Lewis has 280 PA in the last two years in MLB. There were undeniable surges of excellent talent displayed by the young former top draft choice last year and the grand slams and playoff home runs electrified fans. 

It might be prudent to hold off on declarations of MVP and All Star status for Lewis and hope for a very healthy and productive campaign. But, hey, I'll take an MVP season too. I'm quite interested to see what Royce, Julien, and Wallner can accomplish in their first full seasons and hopeful each can be very successful.

Lewis has been a good interview and all reports point to him having a very positive outlook on life. Sometimes people are a little quick to judge athletes from general observation as opposed to specific knowledge. I love that Lewis has been building an amazing reputation for the public but am also wary that others have received less than stellar judgments based on similarly limited and often erroneous reports of their personalities. 

[roger]

I would compare him to a young Derek Jeter, both on and off the field.  Take a look at Jeter's numbers beginning with his age 26 season.  That's what I expect you are going to see from this young man.

As for those who blame the Twins for not keeping him healthy.  If memory serves, his first injury was slipping on the ice when he was in Dallas training with Torii Hunter.  

[sweetmusicviola16]

There was a guy from back in the day that had a similar comp to Lewis, that was Pedro Guerrero. Pedro had the ability and he did it over and over, and that was to carry the Dodgers on his shoulders for 2-3 months at a time. Royce Lewis showed that in 2023.

[Jgcarew]

ha its a sobering thought, comparing him to wilmer.. I like the Marte comp -- and what we could to against lefty starters if Miranda comes all the way back and can play some 3rd base- santana at first and lewis moonlighting in the outfield

[NotAboutWinning]

I am going to propose Joe Mauer as a Royce Lewis comp. They both understand baseball at a DNA level. Both were drafted out of high school. They both had very limited time in the minors. They both stepped onto the MLB field and looked like they had been there for years. Now, I don't think Royce has the batting titles and MVP awards ahead of him. But just talking about guys that inherently know baseball, I think they are very similar.

[stringer bell]

One of Royce's biggest hits was a 14-hop single up the middle against Pressly in Houston. I believe he had homered earlier in that game, but he hung in there against a premier closer and got a tying single in the ninth where the Twins won in extra innings. He does seem to be able to rise to the occasion like few are capable. Like Kirby (and few others) he seems very positive and likable. 

I particularly don't expect him to maintain a really high batting average, but he will be dangerous as a hitter. I hope for good health for him and lots of opportunities to shine.

[jkcarew]

I’ll take any comp from a pool of players that played…say…140 games or more for 8 or more years in a 10 year stretch.

If Lewis does that, he’ll probably be more valuable than 60% of those guys. I’m already convinced health is the only concern, not development.

[UK Twin]

On 2/7/2024 at 1:17 PM, akmanak said:

Due to his injuries and inability to stay healthy in his short career , I am not sold that this isn't going to be a Buxton 2.0 

 

I am having a difficult time understanding the difficulty of this team in the regards to keeping players healthy. I understand injuries happen but not to this extent. 

 

Lewis brings a tremendous amount of energy to this team, but so did Buxton.  Same type of personality, but all that is for not if he can't stay healthy. 

I think people are overstating his injuries TBH. Yes, he tore the same ACL twice but he had no issues coming back from that last year. Then he got a hamstring strain late in the season - an injury that is extremely common in high level athletes. He wasn't fully fit for the play offs and still smacked 4 HR's over the 6 games. I'm not worried about staying healthy. He may require the odd IL stint like most players but there's no reason why he can't play 130+ games a season.

[UK Twin]

It is very difficult to compare him to other players until he's played a full season IMO. I do think he's good enough to be mentioned as one of the very best 3B in the league, along with the likes of Ramirez and Devers. We'll know when other teams fear him when they IBB walk him with the bases loaded. 🤣

[Heiny]

10 hours ago, UK Twin said:

It is very difficult to compare him to other players until he's played a full season IMO. I do think he's good enough to be mentioned as one of the very best 3B in the league, along with the likes of Ramirez and Devers. We'll know when other teams fear him when they IBB walk him with the bases loaded. 🤣

I agree 100%.  Very difficult to make comparisons on such a small sample size.  But if we're gonna play this game,  I'll comp him to a combination of Boggs/Schmidt/Brett.  YEAH, that's what I'll do.