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PECOTA takes on the difficult task of finding player comparisons every year, based on what they’ve already accomplished and projected to accomplish in the future. Royce Lewis has his fair share of question marks, and there’s a wide range of outcomes regarding the kind of player he can be for the rest of his career. To which players does Lewis compare best so far, according to PECOTA?
Wilmer Flores
Flores has had a solid career, while flying under the radar. He's never shown elite walk rates or excessive whiff rates, a profile many expect to see from Royce Lewis. After a slow start to his career, he’s finished each of the last eight seasons as an above-league-average hitter. After moving around the infield, Flores has primarily settled in at first base as he’s reached his early 30s, but this is a comparison to the younger Flores, who primarily played on the left side of the infield. In parts of eleven seasons, Flores has slashed a respectable .264/.319/.441.
While Flores isn’t the generational player the Twins hope Lewis can become, there are worse outcomes for Lewis, as a player who’s lost a ton of time to injury and has some red flags for regression. A Flores-level outcome may sound disappointing, but he’s been a solid contributor to some great teams over the years.
Ketel Marte
Marte is cut from the same cloth when it comes to offensive approach. He’s had something of an up-and-down career. Unlike Flores, Marte has shown superstar upside for at least a season here and there. He's been a valuable contributor year in and year out, while occasionally popping a .900+ OPS season, as he did in 2019 and 2021.
Like Lewis, Marte has suffered injuries that have held him back on occasion. He’s had a few “what if” seasons as he’s dealt with hamstring issues, though he’s been a core piece for Arizona when on the field and, at times, one of the premier bats in all of baseball. Marte may not be a perennial MVP candidate, but Lewis following something resembling this career path is an intriguing notion. It's not hard to envision him spending at least a year or two moonlighting in the outfield, as Marte has done over his arc.
Nolan Arenado
Arenado is the 99th-percentile outcome of any player who bursts onto the MLB scene. With a career OPS of .871 and hours of highlight-reel plays under his belt at third base, Arenado is on a path to the Hall of Fame. He’s yet another player who relies on consistent, high-quality contact, rather than taking his walks or selling out for power.
It’s unfair to expect any player to have an Arenado-level career, which is why PECOTA even mentioning him as a Lewis comp is impressive. Lewis showed in his debut that he has the talent to be a special player, and no matter how unlikely this outcome is, it’s worth being excited, knowing some experts can at least see a scenario where he follows this path.
Bonus: Aramis Ramírez
While PECOTA didn’t compare Lewis to Aramis Ramírez, it’s worth mentioning the beloved former third baseman as a comparison. Ramírez struck out 26.2% of the time in his rookie season, and never eclipsed 18% again in his 18-year career. He only walked 10% of the time twice. While he had some great years as a defender at third base, Ramírez was best known for his bat, particularly in the clutch. He owned a career slash line of .308/.381/.531 in high-leverage situations. Some may not believe in the “clutch gene,” but Ramírez proved he was a player you wanted up with the game on the line for his entire career--one that lasted just under twenty years.
Ramírez is another player whose plate approach matches what should be expected from Lewis moving forward. While Lewis came up as a shortstop, he’s more good than great as a defender at third base. Though it comes in a small sample, Lewis has no shortage of enormous hits in his young career, and that’s reflected in his high-leverage slash line of .441/.472/.971. With the game on the line, Lewis is the man you want at the plate. For those who followed the Cubs and Brewers in the 2000s and the 2010s, the comparison to Ramírez seems spot-on. If he could stick around Twins Territory for a decade or so and do what Ramírez spent much of his career doing, Lewis would soar above any of the current projection systems' expectations for him.
Which PECOTA comparison seems the most likely outcome for Royce Lewis? Is there another player that sticks out as a good comparison to that PECOTA missed, such as Aramis Ramirez? Let us know below!
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