What’s Next for the Twins Following the Jorge Polanco Trade?

[Cody Christie]

Jorge Polanco was traded to Seattle, but this can’t be the team’s only offseason move. So, how does his departure impact the team, and what’s coming next?

Image courtesy of Erik Williams-USA TODAY Sports

Jorge Polanco was one of the longest-tenured Twins, so it can be challenging for fans to see him depart. He produced at a high level for most of his career, and is considered by many to be one of the most underrated Twins in the Target Field era. His consistency and switch-hitting ability helped to fill a critical role near the top of the lineup. In all probability, the front office is already working on their next move, so where do the Twins go from here?

Lineup Analysis
Polanco leaves a hole in the lineup that the Twins can address with in-house options. Edouard Julien is expected to take over the second base duties at the beginning of the year. His defense was below-average at second when he first came up last season, but he worked hard and made huge improvements by the season’s end. The Twins also have Brooks Lee waiting in the wings, but his Triple-A performance could have been better, with a .731 OPS in 38 games. Lee will probably start the year in St. Paul, but should debut in the season’s early months. 

Kyle Farmer seems to be the biggest beneficiary of Polanco’s absence. His right-handed bat is going to be needed on a more regular basis without Polanco’s switch-hitting abilities. Farmer will likely get starts against tough lefties at second base, while also being a pinch-hit option and defensive replacement in the late innings. So, knowing where the lineup stands, how do the Twins continue to improve for 2024?

Free Agent Options
The Twins saved just over $5.5 million by shedding Polanco’s salary and getting money from Seattle as part of the deal. Derek Falvey told reporters that the club plans to reallocate those savings into the roster. He also suggested that those upgrades will likely come on the position-player side after acquiring a starter (Anthony DeSclafani( and a reliever (Justin Topa). So, what’s left on the free-agent market?

Some of the top-ranked free-agent options are still available (most of them Scott Boras clients), but the Twins didn’t save enough money to target those players. Early in the winter, Falvey admitted the team would evaluate the first base market with questions surrounding Alex Kirilloff’s health. The team has also needed a big right-handed bat for a couple years now.

The Twins can go in a few directions with their recently reclaimed payroll flexibility, even if it is a minimal change. Tommy Pham is a name previously linked to the Twins, going back to last year’s trade deadline. He went to the Diamondbacks and was a playoff hero in their World Series run. In 2023, the right-handed slugger posted a 111 OPS+, and his OPS was nearly 20 points higher when facing lefties. He signed a one-year, $6-million deal with the Mets last winter and should get about that much again, based on last year’s performance.

There is also an opportunity for the team to explore a pair of reunions from last year. Michael A. Taylor and Donovan Solano are still on the free agent market, and each makes sense for the team’s needs. Taylor provided insurance for Byron Buxton in center field last season, while having one of his best offensive campaigns. Buxton and the Twins are optimistic about a return to center next season, so the team might rely on internal options. Solano signed late last winter and gave the Twins some versatility off the bench. Minnesota values depth, and these players can add a veteran presence to the roster.

More Trades
The Twins will also continue to explore further trade possibilities. Veterans like Max Kepler, Christian Vázquez, and Farmer have been rumored to be available. As previously mentioned, Farmer likely has a more prominent role with Polanco’s departure. It also doesn’t seem likely for the club to trade from their catching depth. Vazquez had a poor offensive season, but the team prefers a catching rotation. Ryan Jeffers was great in 2023, but the team isn’t going to let him catch more than about 100 games. This leaves Kepler as the lone veteran option to trade, and the Twins haven’t been satisfied with their offers for him in recent seasons.

Minnesota added DeSclafani, a starter, in the Polanco trade, but he isn’t considered a playoff-caliber starter and will slide into the back end of the rotation. Minnesota’s current starting rotation includes Pablo López, Chris Paddack, Joe Ryan, Bailey Ober, and Desclafani. The Twins added Gabriel Gonzalez, a top-100 outfield prospect, in the Polanco trade. One has to wonder if the front office will pivot and trade prospects like Emmanuel Rodriguez or González for a starter. Rodríguez seemed like a potential trade piece at the beginning of the offseason, and those chances might have increased with the team’s recent moves.  

How will the front office complete the 2024 Twins roster? What’s the team’s next move? Leave a COMMENT and start the discussion.

View full article

[tony&rodney]

The first order of business is to find a team that will take DeSclafani. If the Twins pay $2 million, they save another $2 million from the roster total. This potentially allows for an addition of some kind for a little less than $9 million. I don't know who though.

[Cory Engelhardt]

Dan Hayes mentioned this morning that they have talked to Milwaukee and Chicago regarding Burnes and Cease, along with other high impact starters. But that move is on the back burner for now, as they focus on a hitter. He also mentioned that adding Gonzalez, another top 100 prospect, will help those trade talks

[jorgenswest]

3 minutes ago, Cory Engelhardt said:

Dan Hayes mentioned this morning that they have talked to Milwaukee and Chicago regarding Burnes and Cease, along with other high impact starters. But that move is on the back burner for now, as they focus on a hitter. He also mentioned that adding Gonzalez, another top 100 prospect, will help those trade talks

They need to put it on the front burner. 

[miracleb]

Pass on Pham....we have internal options for all position players....especially if we are looking to save money. (or not spend MORE money.)

[ToddlerHarmon]

If the need is a right-handed DH, then the Twins might sit on that need until the trade deadline. They would be hoping that we have enough margin for error to take our chances with Varland or Sclafani in the rotation, and Miranda or Gordon or Martin getting at bats versus lefties. If that works well enough to be near first place in July, then they can deal prospects and take another swing at the playoffs.

This sounds more like the 2022 plan than the 2023 plan, with maybe a deeper bullpen and younger guys that could go off.

[arby58]

10 minutes ago, Cory Engelhardt said:

Dan Hayes mentioned this morning that they have talked to Milwaukee and Chicago regarding Burnes and Cease, along with other high impact starters. But that move is on the back burner for now, as they focus on a hitter. He also mentioned that adding Gonzalez, another top 100 prospect, will help those trade talks

With the signings of Miley and Hoskins, Milwaukee appears to be trying to make a deep play-off run rather than shedding near-term assets, which is another reason I doubt a Burnes trade - and with Polanco gone, offering up Lee or Julien as a key part of that trade becomes more iffy. The White Sox are a mess so, IMHO, more likely to center on a package of high value prospects. I assume Jenkins and now Lee are untouchable, but probably everybody else is part of the conversation. I know teams don't like to trade within the division, but if you are the White Sox, you don't realistically expect to be competing for a division title the next couple of years, so what's the big harm?

[miracleb]

21 minutes ago, tony&rodney said:

The first order of business is to find a team that will take DeSclafani. If the Twins pay $2 million, they save another $2 million from the roster total. This potentially allows for an addition of some kind for a little less than $9 million. I don't know who though.

From what I am reading, the Twins are planning on DeSclafani being their #5 starter......which I am not opposed to.   Based on injuries, we need a few more of these type of players.....but certainly not with this price tag.  (unless the other team is paying a big chunk of the salary!)     :)

[Major League Ready]

It would really help to understand what they might do next if we knew how they felt about DeSclafani.  If they think he is healthy and could perform like he did in 2021, they obviously want to keep him.   It is possible they see him as a trade chip to get a RH bat.  While trading DeSclafani would allow them to reallocate all of Polanco’s Salary, I doubt that happens.  They can readdress a playoff pitcher at the deadline just as Texas did last year.

Adam Duval seems like a fit until you look at his splits.  He is no better against LHP.  Jorge Soler mashed LHP and is above average against RHP but he is a liability in OF.  He would mostly DH. Brandon Belt has been great 3 or the last 4 years.  He is LH but is above average against LHP and mashes RHP.  He will turn 36 but age has not slowed him down yet.  The key here is can he be signed on a one year deal.  I doubt it because he probably would have signed by now if he was willing to take a 1 year deal.  JD Marinez hits both lefties and righties.  Obviously, he is strictly a DH at this point. The biggest sticking point might be that he will turn 37 this year and is likely looking for 2-3 years after having a good year in 2023.
 

[jorgenswest]

Sign JD Martinez. I think he will outhit Polanco this year and the lineup will be better than it was before the trade.

Nelson Cruz was a great addition to the line up and the clubhouse. Martinez has a similar work ethic. It wasn’t a problem that our DH hit so well that players cycled to the bench for rest instead of cycling through DH.

[Fatbat]

Isn’t the payroll about112-115M range right now? Seems like there is plenty of room to pay for better pitching and a big bat. I would understand if they just play the fall back plan of bringing up a string of minor leaguers and see which one sticks. We certainly have enough that are close to mlb ready. Time is on our side so maybe we wait for someone to tank and then make a trade for a rental stud.

[tony&rodney]

4 minutes ago, miracleb said:

From what I am reading, the Twins are planning on DeSclafani being their #5 starter......which I am not opposed to.   Based on injuries, we need a few more of these type of players.....but certainly not with this price tag.  (unless the other team is paying a big chunk of the salary!)     :)

Spring Training and then April & May should tell us where DeSclafani is headed. We don't know.

We should worry about holding back Louie Varland, Simeon Woods Richardson, and David Festa. I guess if DeScla can be almost as good as the average of what the Twins received from Dylan Bundy, Falvey will be pleased. I'm not particularly in love with analytics despite having devised my own system decades ago as a coach and following too many sites, but Eno Sarris of The Athletic put out a list of the top 150 starting pitchers. The Twins had six guys on the list. Varland was #87 and SWR was #149. DeScla was not on the list. 

As Twins fans we hope for the best.

[rv78]

I could live with Pham in left field. The only way I would do something like that though is if they also trade Kepler. Wallner could move to RF. They'd save about another $4M trading Kepler and signing Pham for $6M. Offensively he'd be about the same as Kepler albeit from the right side. With the money saved moving both Polanco and Kepler they'd have about $11M extra to use, hopefully on a Sonny Gray replacement..... not another DeSclafani.

[Cory Engelhardt]

18 minutes ago, arby58 said:

With the signings of Miley and Hoskins, Milwaukee appears to be trying to make a deep play-off run rather than shedding near-term assets, which is another reason I doubt a Burnes trade - and with Polanco gone, offering up Lee or Julien as a key part of that trade becomes more iffy. The White Sox are a mess so, IMHO, more likely to center on a package of high value prospects. I assume Jenkins and now Lee are untouchable, but probably everybody else is part of the conversation. I know teams don't like to trade within the division, but if you are the White Sox, you don't realistically expect to be competing for a division title the next couple of years, so what's the big harm?

I agree, I more bring it up because there has been smoke around Burnes being moved all offseason right? He won't be signing a contract extension with Milwaukee (that's abundantly clear) and he also is planning to 100% wait until free agency instead of signing prior to then with any team he may be traded to.

With all of those things, it must also be added that the minute the season starts, once he is (hypothetically) traded, then he can't get the qualifying offer. That also lessens the value that teams will offer via trade for his services right? And with that too, there is always the potential of him (like any pitcher) getting hurt between now and August 1.

I'm not saying he will be traded. Milwaukee can certainly play out the season with him and make a shot for the playoffs. I'd almost argue that they are the favorite in the NL central (much like Minnesota in the AL central) and that is with or without Burnes. Certainly they are stronger with Burnes, but depending on the return for him, Milwaukee is set up fairly well for the coming years with all of their young position players on their roster (that also sounds familiar.)

Milwaukee certainly doesn't have a need for outfielders, but they are like most teams that would want pitching. I don't know what a fit would be, I just think that a chance of them trading him before opening day is higher than zero, and the Twins have certainly been connected that way all offseason.

We'll see. :)

[sweetmusicviola16]

30 minutes ago, jorgenswest said:

They need to put it on the front burner. 

You took the words right out of my mouth. We should be able to prioritize both needs at the same time........

[tony&rodney]

10 minutes ago, Fatbat said:

Isn’t the payroll about112-115M range right now? Seems like there is plenty of room to pay for better pitching and a big bat. I would understand if they just play the fall back plan of bringing up a string of minor leaguers and see which one sticks. We certainly have enough that are close to mlb ready. Time is on our side so maybe we wait for someone to tank and then make a trade for a rental stud.

A number of people who comment are still wondering about the Twins making a big signing of a major free agent. They point to late signings of Correa & Donaldson. 

This doesn't seem realistic to me. The roster budget is looking like somewhere near $120 million. We wait.

[jishfish]

An under-the-radar trade that I would love to see the Twins make is plucking Connor Joe from the Pirates.

He's a right-handed bat who played 50 games at 1B and 90 games in corner outfield and was a positive OOA according to Baseball Savant. He's more of a platoon bat with a 124 wRC+ against lefties last year, but at least holds his own against righties as well (95 wRC+). He's a career 11% BB guy and only strikes out at a 22% clip.

He's going to be 32 this year so I can't imagine he's part of the Pirates long-term future, and doubt he would cost much in terms of prospect capital. Maybe a AAAA pitcher like Josh Winder or Cole Sands plus a low-level flier? He feels like a perfect benchpiece for this team.

[tony&rodney]

44 minutes ago, Cory Engelhardt said:

Dan Hayes mentioned this morning that they have talked to Milwaukee and Chicago regarding Burnes and Cease, along with other high impact starters. But that move is on the back burner for now, as they focus on a hitter. He also mentioned that adding Gonzalez, another top 100 prospect, will help those trade talks

Both pitchers would be nice additions. Milwaukee doesn't need any outfielders, so only Lee plus seems reasonable and the Brewers want to win this year. I think Burnes is a long shot. Cease? The White Sox have turned down much more than the Twins can even offer but who knows what can happen in March.

[Cory Engelhardt]

8 minutes ago, tony&rodney said:

Both pitchers would be nice additions. Milwaukee doesn't need any outfielders, so only Lee plus seems reasonable and the Brewers want to win this year. I think Burnes is a long shot. Cease? The White Sox have turned down much more than the Twins can even offer but who knows what can happen in March.

Yeah, Milwaukee would seem to watching pitching and/or good value. Their system is fairly stacked, especially with outfielders close to the majors. Still, having Burnes 100% be a free agent 9 months from now factors in.

Cease, yeah I'm less certain he would come here. He'll be traded, and I'm kind of surprised he isn't a Baltimore Oriole by this point. Chicago just needs value of any kind, so we'll see with that too.

[Dman]

I think we are down to one year deals and possibly another trade. I do think the Twins will wait until to the deadline to decide how to handle the top of the rotation.  One of Ober, Paddack or Ryan might emerge as an option or maybe Varland, Festa or SWR emerge.  It also gives them time to see how this team performs.  There are lot's of young players and lot's of sophomore slump's to get through.  Waiting to pay a premium for a top guy might be prudent.

I don't see them going past 130M for payroll and they will want to keep payroll flexible in future years for arb raises and extensions.  Not having a solid TV deal hurts as well.

They added starter depth and replaced Pagan along with getting a top 100 prospect in the Polanco trade for less money than they would have had to pay for free agents so it feels like the heavy lifting is done.  I'm not saying I love who they got as a starter, but if he is healthy he can be a mid rotation guy if you squint a little.

Another big right handed bat for lefties would be nice.  We will see who they decide on.

[Fatbat]

If the budget is down at 120M, we better be really bz at the trade deadline or rocking a few rookies that breakout in a huge way. 

[DJL44]

1 hour ago, ToddlerHarmon said:

If the need is a right-handed DH, then the Twins might sit on that need until the trade deadline.

That worked so well last year that they added Jordan Luplow.

[Twins_Fan_in_NJ]

Pham's one of those guys that seems to have big moments in the post-season. Could be a faulty presumption on my part, but I recall him coming up with some clutch hits and plays. The Twins need more of that next to Correa and Lewis.

[big dog]

I don't get all the drama about DeSclafani. He's not great, or maybe even good, I get it. Will he cost the Twins the division? Only if a lot of other things go wrong as well. How many fifth starters do anything except mop up in the playoffs?

The Sarris pitcher rankings in the Athletic, which I think I have been mentioned elsewhere on this site, put Lopez at #12, Ryan at #40, Ober in the mid-40s, and Paddack around #65. Do I want Snell for 120 innings, maybe the playoffs but maybe not, for $30 million? Sure, if money were free, but it turns out it isn't.

It would be great to have Verlander and Scherzer pitching in the playoffs. That's what the Rangers thought too, except Scherzer couldn't pitch. Neither could DeGrom. They did all right anyway.

Let's play ball.

[Twins_Fan_in_NJ]

The biggest problem or concern I have right now is the rotation. Lopez, stud. No worries there. Ryan, if we're getting the pitcher we saw in the first of 2023, then he too is a stud. 

But after that...

I like Paddack but I'm guessing he's going to be on an innings limit. I like Ober but not sure he's a guy that is going to pitch more than 150 innings. And Descalfini is a gigantic ?.

Ideally, they somehow find a pitcher to slot in as a #2 or #3 and they can shift Descalfini into a long relief role, which IIRC, is what Seattle envisioned when they traded for him.

With that said, the ideal scenario isn't the realistic one and I won't knock the front office if they go into the season with Lopez, Ryan, Ober, Paddack, and Descalfini. Finding a #2 starter on the trade market, when you have budgetary constraints and when most teams will want a prize prospect (Lee), isn't easy to do.

[hitterscount]

The starting pitching, as of today, is not where it needs to be. DeSclafani is a #5 at best. I posted earlier that Varland should be able to take his spot in the rotation coming out of spring training, if not that is very concerning on his potential. 

What will the rotation look like if Paddock gets shut down, Ober and/or Ryan begin to struggle later in the season and we are running out DeSClafani and Varland, the pitcher that couldn't beat him out for 40% of our starts. That is not a playoff winning rotation. 

I am more comfortable with the position players. They should have looked at Hoskins, but that ship has sailed. All focus and resources should be on replacing Gray with another quality arm.   

[TopGunn#22]

It's certainly possible that despite what the FO is "saying" they might just be done for now.  It would be true to the Twins cautious nature to see what they have and identify a deadline pitcher and/or hitter and make the move then.  It's also possible that they could be rewarded with their patience if Brooks Lee has a sizzling debut and Emmanuel Rodriguez takes a BIG stride forward and they are calling him up sometime between the All-Star game and August 1st.  

[ToddlerHarmon]

10 minutes ago, DJL44 said:

That worked so well last year that they added Jordan Luplow.

I didn't say it was a good plan, just that it might be the plan

[wabene]

Their original comments about the budget said between 125-140m. I'm holding on to that. I don't think their done and they said want a frontline starter. Whether they pull that off remains to be seen, sure. With both EROD and Gabby G I'd tell another team take your pick. Maybe EROD is rated a little higher, but I don't care and some teams might like Gabby's contact skills better. Add in some lesser prospects, maybe even Disco and were all set. That should be the priority over a bat.

Disco is going to cost us 4m. Some team will be willing to pay that for a MLB caliber starter, he has value at that price. Maybe just bag of balls, but I don't think the twins need to cover salary there. 

[nicksaviking]

1 hour ago, tony&rodney said:

The first order of business is to find a team that will take DeSclafani. If the Twins pay $2 million, they save another $2 million from the roster total. This potentially allows for an addition of some kind for a little less than $9 million. I don't know who though.

It would be fun for teams to keep trading DeSclafnai and eating his salary until he's free upon landing at his final destination having a half dozen other clubs paying him.