What’s Next for the Twins Following the Jorge Polanco Trade?

The first order of business is to find a team that will take DeSclafani. If the Twins pay $2 million, they save another $2 million from the roster total. This potentially allows for an addition of some kind for a little less than $9 million. I don't know who though.

3 minutes ago, Cory Engelhardt said:

Dan Hayes mentioned this morning that they have talked to Milwaukee and Chicago regarding Burnes and Cease, along with other high impact starters. But that move is on the back burner for now, as they focus on a hitter. He also mentioned that adding Gonzalez, another top 100 prospect, will help those trade talks

They need to put it on the front burner. 

Pass on Pham....we have internal options for all position players....especially if we are looking to save money. (or not spend MORE money.)

If the need is a right-handed DH, then the Twins might sit on that need until the trade deadline. They would be hoping that we have enough margin for error to take our chances with Varland or Sclafani in the rotation, and Miranda or Gordon or Martin getting at bats versus lefties. If that works well enough to be near first place in July, then they can deal prospects and take another swing at the playoffs.

This sounds more like the 2022 plan than the 2023 plan, with maybe a deeper bullpen and younger guys that could go off.

21 minutes ago, tony&rodney said:

The first order of business is to find a team that will take DeSclafani. If the Twins pay $2 million, they save another $2 million from the roster total. This potentially allows for an addition of some kind for a little less than $9 million. I don't know who though.

From what I am reading, the Twins are planning on DeSclafani being their #5 starter......which I am not opposed to.   Based on injuries, we need a few more of these type of players.....but certainly not with this price tag.  (unless the other team is paying a big chunk of the salary!)     :)

It would really help to understand what they might do next if we knew how they felt about DeSclafani.  If they think he is healthy and could perform like he did in 2021, they obviously want to keep him.   It is possible they see him as a trade chip to get a RH bat.  While trading DeSclafani would allow them to reallocate all of Polanco’s Salary, I doubt that happens.  They can readdress a playoff pitcher at the deadline just as Texas did last year.

Adam Duval seems like a fit until you look at his splits.  He is no better against LHP.  Jorge Soler mashed LHP and is above average against RHP but he is a liability in OF.  He would mostly DH. Brandon Belt has been great 3 or the last 4 years.  He is LH but is above average against LHP and mashes RHP.  He will turn 36 but age has not slowed him down yet.  The key here is can he be signed on a one year deal.  I doubt it because he probably would have signed by now if he was willing to take a 1 year deal.  JD Marinez hits both lefties and righties.  Obviously, he is strictly a DH at this point. The biggest sticking point might be that he will turn 37 this year and is likely looking for 2-3 years after having a good year in 2023.
 

Sign JD Martinez. I think he will outhit Polanco this year and the lineup will be better than it was before the trade.

Nelson Cruz was a great addition to the line up and the clubhouse. Martinez has a similar work ethic. It wasn’t a problem that our DH hit so well that players cycled to the bench for rest instead of cycling through DH.

Isn’t the payroll about112-115M range right now? Seems like there is plenty of room to pay for better pitching and a big bat. I would understand if they just play the fall back plan of bringing up a string of minor leaguers and see which one sticks. We certainly have enough that are close to mlb ready. Time is on our side so maybe we wait for someone to tank and then make a trade for a rental stud.

4 minutes ago, miracleb said:

From what I am reading, the Twins are planning on DeSclafani being their #5 starter......which I am not opposed to.   Based on injuries, we need a few more of these type of players.....but certainly not with this price tag.  (unless the other team is paying a big chunk of the salary!)     :)

Spring Training and then April & May should tell us where DeSclafani is headed. We don't know.

We should worry about holding back Louie Varland, Simeon Woods Richardson, and David Festa. I guess if DeScla can be almost as good as the average of what the Twins received from Dylan Bundy, Falvey will be pleased. I'm not particularly in love with analytics despite having devised my own system decades ago as a coach and following too many sites, but Eno Sarris of The Athletic put out a list of the top 150 starting pitchers. The Twins had six guys on the list. Varland was #87 and SWR was #149. DeScla was not on the list. 

As Twins fans we hope for the best.

I could live with Pham in left field. The only way I would do something like that though is if they also trade Kepler. Wallner could move to RF. They'd save about another $4M trading Kepler and signing Pham for $6M. Offensively he'd be about the same as Kepler albeit from the right side. With the money saved moving both Polanco and Kepler they'd have about $11M extra to use, hopefully on a Sonny Gray replacement..... not another DeSclafani.

30 minutes ago, jorgenswest said:

They need to put it on the front burner. 

You took the words right out of my mouth. We should be able to prioritize both needs at the same time........

10 minutes ago, Fatbat said:

Isn’t the payroll about112-115M range right now? Seems like there is plenty of room to pay for better pitching and a big bat. I would understand if they just play the fall back plan of bringing up a string of minor leaguers and see which one sticks. We certainly have enough that are close to mlb ready. Time is on our side so maybe we wait for someone to tank and then make a trade for a rental stud.

A number of people who comment are still wondering about the Twins making a big signing of a major free agent. They point to late signings of Correa & Donaldson. 

This doesn't seem realistic to me. The roster budget is looking like somewhere near $120 million. We wait.

44 minutes ago, Cory Engelhardt said:

Dan Hayes mentioned this morning that they have talked to Milwaukee and Chicago regarding Burnes and Cease, along with other high impact starters. But that move is on the back burner for now, as they focus on a hitter. He also mentioned that adding Gonzalez, another top 100 prospect, will help those trade talks

Both pitchers would be nice additions. Milwaukee doesn't need any outfielders, so only Lee plus seems reasonable and the Brewers want to win this year. I think Burnes is a long shot. Cease? The White Sox have turned down much more than the Twins can even offer but who knows what can happen in March.

If the budget is down at 120M, we better be really bz at the trade deadline or rocking a few rookies that breakout in a huge way. 

1 hour ago, ToddlerHarmon said:

If the need is a right-handed DH, then the Twins might sit on that need until the trade deadline.

That worked so well last year that they added Jordan Luplow.

Pham's one of those guys that seems to have big moments in the post-season. Could be a faulty presumption on my part, but I recall him coming up with some clutch hits and plays. The Twins need more of that next to Correa and Lewis.

I don't get all the drama about DeSclafani. He's not great, or maybe even good, I get it. Will he cost the Twins the division? Only if a lot of other things go wrong as well. How many fifth starters do anything except mop up in the playoffs?

The Sarris pitcher rankings in the Athletic, which I think I have been mentioned elsewhere on this site, put Lopez at #12, Ryan at #40, Ober in the mid-40s, and Paddack around #65. Do I want Snell for 120 innings, maybe the playoffs but maybe not, for $30 million? Sure, if money were free, but it turns out it isn't.

It would be great to have Verlander and Scherzer pitching in the playoffs. That's what the Rangers thought too, except Scherzer couldn't pitch. Neither could DeGrom. They did all right anyway.

Let's play ball.

The biggest problem or concern I have right now is the rotation. Lopez, stud. No worries there. Ryan, if we're getting the pitcher we saw in the first of 2023, then he too is a stud. 

But after that...

I like Paddack but I'm guessing he's going to be on an innings limit. I like Ober but not sure he's a guy that is going to pitch more than 150 innings. And Descalfini is a gigantic ?.

Ideally, they somehow find a pitcher to slot in as a #2 or #3 and they can shift Descalfini into a long relief role, which IIRC, is what Seattle envisioned when they traded for him.

With that said, the ideal scenario isn't the realistic one and I won't knock the front office if they go into the season with Lopez, Ryan, Ober, Paddack, and Descalfini. Finding a #2 starter on the trade market, when you have budgetary constraints and when most teams will want a prize prospect (Lee), isn't easy to do.

The starting pitching, as of today, is not where it needs to be. DeSclafani is a #5 at best. I posted earlier that Varland should be able to take his spot in the rotation coming out of spring training, if not that is very concerning on his potential. 

What will the rotation look like if Paddock gets shut down, Ober and/or Ryan begin to struggle later in the season and we are running out DeSClafani and Varland, the pitcher that couldn't beat him out for 40% of our starts. That is not a playoff winning rotation. 

I am more comfortable with the position players. They should have looked at Hoskins, but that ship has sailed. All focus and resources should be on replacing Gray with another quality arm.   

It's certainly possible that despite what the FO is "saying" they might just be done for now.  It would be true to the Twins cautious nature to see what they have and identify a deadline pitcher and/or hitter and make the move then.  It's also possible that they could be rewarded with their patience if Brooks Lee has a sizzling debut and Emmanuel Rodriguez takes a BIG stride forward and they are calling him up sometime between the All-Star game and August 1st.  

10 minutes ago, DJL44 said:

That worked so well last year that they added Jordan Luplow.

I didn't say it was a good plan, just that it might be the plan

Their original comments about the budget said between 125-140m. I'm holding on to that. I don't think their done and they said want a frontline starter. Whether they pull that off remains to be seen, sure. With both EROD and Gabby G I'd tell another team take your pick. Maybe EROD is rated a little higher, but I don't care and some teams might like Gabby's contact skills better. Add in some lesser prospects, maybe even Disco and were all set. That should be the priority over a bat.

Disco is going to cost us 4m. Some team will be willing to pay that for a MLB caliber starter, he has value at that price. Maybe just bag of balls, but I don't think the twins need to cover salary there. 

I'm also not content with the rotation.  I wonder if the Twins FO really is and whether the statement they are looking for a bat is a smoke-screen.  What limited resources we have I would like to see used for the rotation.  I like the addition of Topa.  I think Staumont has the potential to be a Brock Stewart type.  I think Varland and Canterino could be factors and I believe an increased workload for Funderburk will be good.

This is why I would like the Twins to take a flyer on Trevor Bauer.  I'm no fan of the off the field stuff and it seems a lot of things were assumed that were unfair to him.  But he just wants a chance and if I had $10 million to spend on a SP (which doesn't get you much nowadays) I'd spend it on him.  He's been an elite pitcher.  He still seems to have gas in the tank.  He would immediately be our #2 SP pushing DeSclafani to #6 and allowing the Twins for 2024 to use Varland as a multi-inning relief pitcher.  

By any metric he's a low risk/high reward move.  That's what the Twins need.  They need UPSIDE, and Bauer could provide that.  The guy just wants a chance and I think would sign for below market.  The Twins would offer him a better chance than many other teams.  A one year deal would be extremely low risk, but I'd even consider a two year deal for the stability of the rotation and to give younger pitchers more time to develop and contribute.  I think he'd have a bigger impact on the Twins 2024 season than a hitter.