Two Paths for Emmanuel Rodriguez and the Twins

ashbury · November 1

Rodriguez is young, making any analysis of his minor league numbers shakier than most. And his stat profile is an outlier, even on top of that, being founded on an ultra-high walk rate like just about no one else. It would be exciting if his eye at the plate translated into laying off the bad pitches and clobbering the fat ones. His home run numbers are indeed pretty good. But that batting average of .240 and the 134 strikeouts this season paint a picture of maybe just taking advantage of pitchers who are never going to progress past high-A, but being abused by pitchers who have some command.

Still, he hasn't yet reached his 21st birthday, and for me that counts for a lot. I tried finding a comp for his numbers at A-ball, not just among Twins either, and the best match I found was Edouard Julien. We don't know for sure how the latter's career is going to unfold either. But it's pretty encouraging.

I wish I knew more about his defense. Being a centerfielder puts him in a different category than the corner OF bats we have collected. But it only matters if he's going to stick there.

All in all I think the ceiling is too high on our ERod to trade him for anything but a sure thing on the pitching side. He's probably not going to be what his video-game numbers in 2022 suggested, but his 2023 was a year of progress at the higher level of competition. Still a long way to go, to achieve actual stardom in the majors. Hey, he's 20 - or has that already been mentioned?

Juza · November 1

I wouldn't be opposed to trading Rodriguez but I wouldn't unless it was for a very good pitcher. Rodriguez has a 19.7 value per MLB Trade Rumors. Joe Ryan has a 43.7 value. Baily Ober has 27.5. If it took more than Rodriguez to get a pitcher like Ober, I'd rather keep Rodriguez.

Fatbat · November 1

Why would we continue to trade away developing talent that will be a foundation for the next decade? You want another #1/2 SP? Go buy one in free agency. If Erod tears up AA and AAA in 24/25 we literally will have the best outfield for the next decade with him, wallner and WJ. 3 potential perennial all stars with a gimpy buck as the 4th OF. Sure he has trade value, if you don’t want to build a decade long OF dynasty….

Dman · November 1

I can't see the Twins moving on from\trading Rodriguez. I agree the K rate is concerning, but the plate discipline is also elite so this isn't about a player who is undisciplined at the plate and just swinging at everything. Maybe I have too much hope but he seems a bit like Soto to me. He swings hard at everything and generally has good results. I just don't think a guy who looks like he could be a perennial all-star is a player you want to trade.

I get there is risk there. If the K rate doesn't improve and pitchers at higher levels can exploit his swing path and he can't make adjustments then maybe he ends up a good not great player. He could end up a Gallo\Kepler type player if things don't go his way, but that feels like his floor to me.

Even though he was young for the level he was at the top of the Midwest league leader board at top 5 in OPS and that was after a brutal May (.572 OPS). In June his OPS was .943, July .840, August .941 and September 1.100. If not for the horrible May he might have been the league MVP over Rosario.

He takes some really bad at bat's and I have been low on him for that, but I think he really is likely underrated. He would be untradeable for me unless the Twins found themselves with a sweet deal for a really good pitcher with a good amount of control left. I feel pretty confident Rodriguez will be a difference maker as a player but time will tell.

mikelink45 · November 1

It also depends on whether he is heir apparent to Buxton in the minds of the FO. Lots of questions, but good speculation. The two above him in rankings are way above him in my thoughts.

Nashvilletwin · November 1

Option #3: In ‘25, Rodriguez starts in RF alongside Jenkins in CF and Rosario in LF - the three rookies then play together for five years on basically league minimum/arb eligible salaries. The three of them form the best outfield in Twins history and the Twins use the extra cash (from them and Lewis and Lee) to have the best pitching staff in the majors. Multiple World Series wins follow.

I vote for this option.

Karbo · November 1

I wouldn't trade him this winter. see how things go by moving him up a level or 2 then make a decision.

NeverSeenATwinsPlayoffWin · November 1

Eddy Julien has a K-rate of nearly 30%, and I don't see very many people who would characterize his approach as "immature" or "not MLB-level." Striking out a lot does not necessarily mean that you have a bad approach. Hitters succeed when they swing at strikes and spit on balls, which is what E-Rod has been doing. Players have lots of success when they are able to do the damage that E-Rod can do.

Aaron Judge has been in the high 20s for K-rate for most of his career. JD Martinez had a 31.% K-rate this year. This postseason, Adolis Garcia had a 26.5% K-rate, and he had one of the most productive Octobers ever. There are plenty of uber-productive hitters who have high K-rates, E-Rod is not a player who you can write off because he strikes out.

nicksaviking · November 1

I'm up for trading just about anyone to get another top of the rotation arm. Fans and pundits always value prospects more than the teams do though, so it would take more than E-Rod to bring back something resembling Lopez.

Rod Carews Birthday · November 1

I think that the time to trade him isn't this winter, if at all. He's so young, in fact, he's a lottery ticket even for the Twins, and they know the most about him. If he goes to AA in 2024 and plays a season there we will learn a lot. It might be that he is a massive star who will become a perennial all-star, but it also might be a guy whose ceiling is A+ ball who might never go any further. In either case, I feel like we need a better base of information before we pull the trigger on a trade OR pronounce him a future building block. I agree with @mikelink45 that Lee and Jenkins are ahead of him, especially in terms of relative certainty. Let's hold on another year or so before we do something rash.

Fatbat · November 1

58 minutes ago, mikelink45 said:

It also depends on whether he is heir apparent to Buxton in the minds of the FO. Lots of questions, but good speculation. The two above him in rankings are way above him in my thoughts.

There is room on the roster in 2025 for all the youngsters.

arby58 · November 1

1 hour ago, Fatbat said:

Why would we continue to trade away developing talent that will be a foundation for the next decade? You want another #1/2 SP? Go buy one in free agency. If Erod tears up AA and AAA in 24/25 we literally will have the best outfield for the next decade with him, wallner and WJ. 3 potential perennial all stars with a gimpy buck as the 4th OF. Sure he has trade value, if you don’t want to build a decade long OF dynasty….

It costs a lot more to buy a free agent than to trade for one. Everybody here ignores the dollar side of the equation (related to a free agent), but it is real, and it limits what else the Twins can do. The Twins have been excellent at the trade approach to starting pitching, why change now?

FlyingFinn · November 1

8 minutes ago, NeverSeenATwinsPlayoffWin said:

Eddy Julien has a K-rate of nearly 30%, and I don't see very many people who would characterize his approach as "immature" or "not MLB-level." Striking out a lot does not necessarily mean that you have a bad approach. Hitters succeed when they swing at strikes and spit on balls, which is what E-Rod has been doing. Players have lots of success when they are able to do the damage that E-Rod can do.

Agreed. High walk rate and great plate discipline with his power is the reason I don't trade him. There's going to be some frustrated pitchers when E-Rod and Julien are with the Twins and they refuse to swing at the pitches that are an inch off the plate (with robo umps in MLB by 2025).

Fatbat · November 1

6 minutes ago, arby58 said:

It costs a lot more to buy a free agent than to trade for one. Everybody here ignores the dollar side of the equation (related to a free agent), but it is real, and it limits what else the Twins can do. The Twins have been excellent at the trade approach to starting pitching, why change now?

Tyler Mahle was not an excellent trade. There are probably a half dozen more going back 15 years that sucked as well. I do agree that FA signings are expensive which is why I advocate for homegrown drafting/development of pitching.

NeverSeenATwinsPlayoffWin · November 1

Just now, FlyingFinn said:

Agreed. High walk rate and great plate discipline with his power is the reason I don't trade him. There's going to be some frustrated pitchers when E-Rod and Julien are with the Twins and they refuse to swing at the pitches that are an inch off the plate (with robo umps in MLB by 2025).

The robo-ump take is fantastic. I think the first iteration of robo-umps will be the challenge system, but I think there were about 15-25 Eddy Julien strikeouts that would have turned into walks if the umpire did not give the pitcher a free strike.

Robo-umps also increase the chances of the pitcher throwing a cookie; as the zone tightens a little, there will be an increase in pitchers "just trying to throw one over," which will turn into lots of balls in the seats. As it relates to Twins pitching, I think that we are well-suited for robo-umpiring, Lopez, Ryan, and Ober all live in the strike zone and trust their elite stuff- where teams like the Astros and Brewers are going to struggle once they're forced to start throwing balls over the plate.

nicksaviking · November 1

1 hour ago, ashbury said:

Rodriguez is young, making any analysis of his minor league numbers shakier than most. And his stat profile is an outlier, even on top of that, being founded on an ultra-high walk rate like just about no one else. It would be exciting if his eye at the plate translated into laying off the bad pitches and clobbering the fat ones. His home run numbers are indeed pretty good. But that batting average of .240 and the 134 strikeouts this season paint a picture of maybe just taking advantage of pitchers who are never going to progress past high-A, but being abused by pitchers who have some command.

Still, he hasn't yet reached his 21st birthday, and for me that counts for a lot. I tried finding a comp for his numbers at A-ball, not just among Twins either, and the best match I found was Edouard Julien. We don't know for sure how the latter's career is going to unfold either. But it's pretty encouraging.

I wish I knew more about his defense. Being a centerfielder puts him in a different category than the corner OF bats we have collected. But it only matters if he's going to stick there.

All in all I think the ceiling is too high on our ERod to trade him for anything but a sure thing on the pitching side. He's probably not going to be what his video-game numbers in 2022 suggested, but his 2023 was a year of progress at the higher level of competition. Still a long way to go, to achieve actual stardom in the majors. Hey, he's 20 - or has that already been mentioned?

So I had been thinking about E-Rod's unique numbers and how it's been noted that he comes by his high BB and K rates by taking a lot of pitches. E-Rod isn't striking out a lot because he's missing pitches, it's because he's taking too many. Or so the analysists say. Bringing up Julien as a comp has me thinking, because that's exactly what was occurring with Julien, Wallner and other's on the MLB club. Perhaps this unique profile that E-Rod has is due to the Twins interjecting this principal earlier in development than just the players' MLB rookie year. Without knowing how many pitches these guys are seeing, Yunior Severino, Alex Isola, Chris Williams, DeShawn Kieresy, Anthony Prato, Anthony Sabato and many others seem to test these same high walk/strikeout figures.

If the Twins are pushing these young guys to see as many pitches per plate appearance as possible, while other clubs aren't dwelling on this, we likely will struggle with player comps for all the prospects. Fingers crossed, having them do this early will help them improve as they progress in both the strikeout and batting average area as they continue to practice this strategy.

Jim wyllie · November 1

I would never trade him, if Buxton can't stay healthy or play center field long term then Rodriguez is our best in house option. And if Buxton plays well enough and Rodriguez is nearing the big leagues by the end of 2025 then Buxton becomes a trading chip

awmonahan · November 1

If Chase Petty brings back Sonny Gray, it would take an awful lot for me to trade ERod. You cannot trade guys with his tools that are under 21 unless you're blown away by an offer.

chpettit19 · November 1

To me, a lot of the ERod equation comes down to how he's striking out. Is it a lot of swing and miss in zone or is he just taking too many pitches and putting himself in bad spots? I don't know. But if it's a lot of swing and miss in zone and I can trade him for a controllable, young, starting pitcher I'd do it. The reports I've read suggest he's probably not an MLB CFer, but that could change the equation a little as well.

Walker Jenkins is the only untouchable player I see in the minors for the Twins. The rest would all be available depending on the return. Now that return may have to be Spencer Strider or George Kirby, but if they can get an arm in their mid-20s to pair with Pablo for the next 4+ years I'm trading anyone not named Lewis or Jenkins. It will be very interesting to see how ERod progresses over the next couple years. Feels like he could be Gallo or Soto (as someone else pointed out). That's a major leaguer either way, but one is an MVP, and one you'd wish you'd traded him for pitching after 2023.

tony&rodney · November 1

There were plenty of opportunies this past season to watch Emmanuel Rodriguez via milb.com. A few of the comments have noted the strengths and weaknesses. Erod has an exceptional eye he knows the strike zone. ABS is going to be his friend and he will do well with a challenge system as well. The ability to rip mistakes and hit pitches in the strike zone are why Erod is looking so valuable. He absolutely loves a big moment and it sure seemed like pitchers either paid in a big way when they challenged him in close games or they just pitched around him. Erod is willing to take a walk. Another poster noted that Emmanuel takes a number of bad at bats. This is true and is not because of a lack of discipline. When a game is out of reach or the situation seemed unimportant (to Erod), there were plenty of wild swings. This is more a factor of inexperience and a youthful response to the surrounding game. He will need to learn that at bats should not be squandered as he progresses and I think he will. Because Rodriguez has only finished A+ ball, I don't think his value around baseball is where we can expect it to be at this time next year (top ten). The swing, bounce, and talent is real in my opinion. I have not had a chance to watch Jenkins bat, having only seen a few videos. Emmanuel was available via milb and I must have seen 50-100 of his at bats. My rankings defer to Jenkins as #1, but I put Erod right behind him at #2 among Twins prospects. I''m curious to read how those who traveled to watch Erod play (amongst national writers) see him. No doubt, Erod has some improvements to make but his skills are really top shelf. BTW, Erod is an excellent defensive outfielder with a very strong arm and he has good speed too.

se7799 · November 1

The Twins really like this kid..as do I. He is as close to untraceable as can be. He will be a multiple year Allstar and clubhouse leader if he stays healthy. His value will only go up..I promise. He is legit and special...this last part is not just my opinion.

TNTwinsFan · November 2

2025 Lineup:

Julien DH

Lee 2B

Lewis 3B

Walker CF

Rodriguez LF

Walner RF

Kirilloff 1B

Correa SS

Jeffers C

DO NOT trade E-Rod. That is a line-up that will do damage.

tony&rodney · November 2

Take a look at the Splits for Emmanuel sometime. When he learns to concentrate throughout every at bat, Erod is going to be a beast.

jrod23 · November 2

7 hours ago, tony&rodney said:

There were plenty of opportunies this past season to watch Emmanuel Rodriguez via milb.com. A few of the comments have noted the strengths and weaknesses. Erod has an exceptional eye he knows the strike zone. ABS is going to be his friend and he will do well with a challenge system as well. The ability to rip mistakes and hit pitches in the strike zone are why Erod is looking so valuable. He absolutely loves a big moment and it sure seemed like pitchers either paid in a big way when they challenged him in close games or they just pitched around him. Erod is willing to take a walk. Another poster noted that Emmanuel takes a number of bad at bats. This is true and is not because of a lack of discipline. When a game is out of reach or the situation seemed unimportant (to Erod), there were plenty of wild swings. This is more a factor of inexperience and a youthful response to the surrounding game. He will need to learn that at bats should not be squandered as he progresses and I think he will. Because Rodriguez has only finished A+ ball, I don't think his value around baseball is where we can expect it to be at this time next year (top ten). The swing, bounce, and talent is real in my opinion. I have not had a chance to watch Jenkins bat, having only seen a few videos. Emmanuel was available via milb and I must have seen 50-100 of his at bats. My rankings defer to Jenkins as #1, but I put Erod right behind him at #2 among Twins prospects. I''m curious to read how those who traveled to watch Erod play (amongst national writers) see him. No doubt, Erod has some improvements to make but his skills are really top shelf. BTW, Erod is an excellent defensive outfielder with a very strong arm and he has good speed too.

Everything here. Manny was a stud down the stretch and LOVED the big moments (as big as they can be in Cedar Rapids). His playoffs reminded me of Royce's. Clutched up tremendously. If you actually watched him from April to the Midwest League Championship, you'd be singing the tune of "it's not how you start. It's how you finish". And we finished on a win thanks to him. I don't see the charisma and leadership that match the skills with Royce, but I do see him with passion and drive, and that uncanniness of rising to the challenge.

tony&rodney · November 2

3 minutes ago, jrod23 said:

I don't see the charisma and leadership that match the skills with Royce,

Oh I love how Royce plays so happy, almost like he has recovered from two ACL surgeries and is now in the major leagues. Still, Erod has a swagger that jumps off the screen and he seeks the moment. They are Twins.

Nashvilletwin · November 2

4 hours ago, TNTwinsFan said:

2025 Lineup:

Julien DH

Lee 2B

Lewis 3B

Walker CF

Rodriguez LF

Walner RF

Kirilloff 1B

Correa SS

Jeffers C

DO NOT trade E-Rod. That is a line-up that will do damage.

Agree. Another reason this lineup can do damage is that by ‘25 only Correa (and maybe Jeffers to a certain extent and Vasquez if he’s still here) is making real money. There is a lot money, even including what we owe Buxton, left over for pitching. That’s a huge advantage. Btw, Rosario might replace Wallner, but we can play that by ear.

This would also be such a fun team to watch.

Trov · November 2

I do not see them trading him this offseason, unless a great deal for a young controllable starting pitcher comes along. Someone like Pablo Lopez for example. I do not know of any team willing to part with someone like him for a guy that will be 1 or more years from MLB. As pointed out, not many teams willing to part with a top starter in off-season for prospects. It just tells your fan base we are not trying this year. I would say Oakland would have been in that world, but I do not know of any pitchers that would be worth much. There may be a few other teams that clearly are out of it next year, but do they have someone we want?

I see the team keeping him, hope he continues to show his bat will play at MLB level to give them options. The hope is Jenkins will be right there with him as well, and then they could play both, look to trade someone to fill other holes. Part will depend on what we do with CF next year. If Buck can ever play it again, that is one thing, or if Martin shows he can man it then that frees up the ability to move E-Rod, but if Martin cannot play there, and Buck is cooked, then we will be looking for a CF and less willing to part with possible prospect that can play there.

Major League Ready · November 2

On 11/1/2023 at 11:30 AM, NeverSeenATwinsPlayoffWin said:

Eddy Julien has a K-rate of nearly 30%, and I don't see very many people who would characterize his approach as "immature" or "not MLB-level." Striking out a lot does not necessarily mean that you have a bad approach. Hitters succeed when they swing at strikes and spit on balls, which is what E-Rod has been doing. Players have lots of success when they are able to do the damage that E-Rod can do.

Aaron Judge has been in the high 20s for K-rate for most of his career. JD Martinez had a 31.% K-rate this year. This postseason, Adolis Garcia had a 26.5% K-rate, and he had one of the most productive Octobers ever. There are plenty of uber-productive hitters who have high K-rates, E-Rod is not a player who you can write off because he strikes out.

Erod had a 28.6% BB% in low A and 20% in A+ with an OBP of .400. That indicates he is Julien like in terms of being selective. That's a lot easier to improve than a guy with a high K rate from chasing.

Otaknam · November 2

22 hours ago, Fatbat said:

Why would we continue to trade away developing talent that will be a foundation for the next decade? You want another #1/2 SP? Go buy one in free agency. If Erod tears up AA and AAA in 24/25 we literally will have the best outfield for the next decade with him, wallner and WJ. 3 potential perennial all stars with a gimpy buck as the 4th OF. Sure he has trade value, if you don’t want to build a decade long OF dynasty….

Because their history isn’t paying a free agent starter $30 million per year over 4-5 years. But I’m with you on reluctance in trading high upside position players. Besides, why would a number one free agent starter want to pitch for a manager who doesn’t trust him to pitch more than five innings?

saviking · November 2

I think his high OBP, power and speed overshadow his strikeouts.

An out us an out however you look at it. With a strikeout at least you don't hit into double plays which are inning killers.

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