Cody Bellinger Would Fill Several Twins Needs

[Nash Walker]

Renewed payroll hope, an overall lack of clear holes, and sheer talent make Cody Bellinger the runaway best free agent fit for the Twins.

Image courtesy of Jayne Kamin-Oncea-USA TODAY Sports

Recent reports of Diamond Sports Group’s new deal with Amazon has Twins fans like me hopeful the payroll restraints will lift in the very near future. If they do, there’s no better play on the market than 28-year-old former MVP, Cody Bellinger. 

The Twins still need to find a way to replace Sonny Gray’s 184 excellent innings, and it’d behoove them to add another reliever, but the most pressing questions reside at first base and in center field. Alex Kirilloff, who I still believe can be a cornerstone player, isn’t a reliable bet for even 100 starts at first base. He’s logged just 192 games in three years, and unfortunately hasn’t yet matched the prospect hype, with a 104 OPS+ and a career fWAR total of 0.5.

 

Almost every report on Byron Buxton is that he’s trending toward being the Opening Day starter in center. Prior to a down offensive season, he hit 70 homers in 279 games from 2021 to 2023 with an OPS that was 36 percent better than league average. A return to elite form isn’t at all out of the question. We’re all hoping that bears out, but the Twins still need a Michael A. Taylor-esque insurance plan, no matter how good Buxton feels come February, March, and April. 

If the Pohlads give approval for unexpected late spending this winter, I’d set my sights mostly on Bellinger. He hit .307, with the lowest strikeout rate of his career (15.7%); slugged .525 with 29 doubles and 26 homers; drove in 97 runs; and went 20-for-26 in stolen base attempts, on a one-year pillow contract with the Cubs. At 28 years old, he’s won NL Rookie of the Year, an MVP, and two Silver Sluggers. He’d bring even more playoff experience (69 games) to a Twins nucleus that feels close to breaking through in October.  

Rhys Hoskins is suitable at first, assuredly cheaper, and comparable offensively, but he doesn’t play center field. Bellinger has contributed 13 Outs Above Average in center since 2021. He was also excellent against both righties and lefties in 2023, which should be exceedingly attractive for the Twins. Taylor, who ranks first in OAA among center fielders over the last three seasons, is limited at the plate, and struggled to a .641 OPS with a 34% strikeout rate against right-handed pitchers last year. 

Bellinger isn’t without risk. There’s a reason he and his agent Scott Boras only netted a one-year deal last winter, albeit for $17.5 million. The previously elite Dodger was OK during the 2020 COVID season, horrific in 2021, and somewhere in between in 2022. His fall from prolific young slugger to Dave Roberts’s bench was hard to compute. Injuries, specifically a recurring right shoulder problem, could’ve been the culprit. The dip is the sole reason Bellinger didn't get over $300 million last offseason.

This inconsistency rears its head in FanGraphs’s 2024 ZiPS projections, cooked up by Dan Szymborski. The system has Bellinger taking a big step back in the power department (.441 SLG), likely due to the stark difference in his expected and actual numbers in 2023. His .370 wOBA (weighted on base average) was 43 points better than his expected mark based on batted-ball data. That tied him with Adam Duvall as the fifth-“luckiest” hitter among qualifiers last year. Szymborski still projects Bellinger for an above-average offensive season and a respectable 2.7 Wins Above Replacement.

One could argue Jordan Montgomery or Blake Snell would better fit the Twins’ needs. Starting pitching was why the Twins survived the first half of offensive ineptitude, and Pablo López needs a new sidekick. History tells us what Derek Falvey and Co. are much more likely to do, and we’ve never seen them spend more than $20 million on a starting pitcher in free agency. What we have seen, time and time again, is investment in impact position players. The Twins spent over $235 million to sign and retain Carlos Correa, and another $100 million to extend Buxton. Follow the money to predict the future.

Jon Becker at FanGraphs crowdsourced Bellinger’s projected contract for six years and $144 million, the highest among remaining free agents. FanGraphs projects the Twins’ current payroll at $124 million, so a Bellinger addition at $24M per year with no other additions or subtractions would put them at $148 million, still $11 million shy of where they finished 2023. There's always a chance, too, that they still trade a Max Kepler or a Jorge Polanco, thereby coming back down below $140 million even with Bellinger on board.

The roster needs someone who can not only play center and first base, but do it at a high level. While I’m less concerned about the Twins' propensity to strike out than some, Bellinger’s batting average and elite contact ability in 2023 has to be appealing. His 20 steals and career 80-percent success rate added to a lineup lacking speed is a box checked. His somewhat moderate price tag, given his track record and age, is another. 

Bellinger and the Twins are a perfect match.

Do you agree? If there is more to spend than expected, how do you want the team to do it? Speak up in the comments, and let's see whether the unexpected involvement of Amazon gets the Twins moving.

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[Beast]

Stop pinning the cuts on the TV deal alone.  This is merely the excuse the Pohlads were waiting for.

Show you’re a serious franchise that puts out a good, entertaining product that fans demand to watch, and the TV deals will pile up outside your door.  Instead, they choose to cut every corner possible to maximize their lined pockets and try to contrive these carrots on sticks to trick fans into tagging along.  It’s tiresome and a huge percentage a fans are getting fed up with it.  

[Rik19753]

If they are suddenly open to spending, I would rather spend that money on Snell or Montgomery. Snell or Montgomery($25M AAV) + Rhys Hoskins($10M AAV) + trade of Polanco for young controllable CF depth(-$10M AAV) rounds out the roster very nicely IMO, and you wouldn't have to pay up in prospect capital to get a frontline starter.

[CRF]

Some speculation at this time of year is fun, and keeps the imagination going...but there's absolutely no way they sign Bellinger. They won't sign Hoskins either. You can also forget about any of the remaining high end pitchers too, while you're at it. They just won't do anything that involves prying open the vault. There's a much better chance of the Lagina brothers finding treasure on Oak Island, than the Twins spending that kind of money. 

[miracleb]

Any money needs to be spent on pitching.  Any fielding positions need to be filled internally......

[Eris]

I could get behind signing Bellinger to a 1 year deal.  Certainly the upside is a lot more than Joey Gallo.  I agree with @Rik19753that pitching is more needed. Also someone who has had 1 good year in the last 4 is not going to get a long term deal at $25m/year. During 2020-2022 Bellinger put up 2.2 WAR. He was hurt in 2021 but played 144 games in 2022.  To give you an idea of just how bad of a performance those numbers represent, Willi Castro put up 1.8 WAR over the same period before being released by one of the worst teams in the league. 

[tony&rodney]

Fun article Nash. The Twins are a good match for Cody Bellinger in many ways and his strong play on both offense and defense should gain him a strong deal. Bellinger, like many of the trade ideas for starting pitchers, is a player worth discussing.

Unfortunately, there are reasons for the Twins to pass on Bellinger. Of course money is a factor, but the Twins also have two guys who still hold great promise if they can step over their inconsistencies and injuries. Jose Miranda and especially Alex Kirilloff can be terrific bats. Kirilloff has been missing as much as Buxton but it doesn't exclude him from getting it together and beginning a run of excellent production.

[Cory Engelhardt]

If they were to get Bellinger, I'd have to imagine the relationship with Boras was helped by a number of things, including the Correa deal and even keeping Gallo on the roster as long as they did. He is an obvious positional fit, and I do agree that spending payroll money on position players (while trading for pitching) makes sense.

I'm not certain  it will happen, but put me in the camp that this would be a fantastic move. Even if he doesn't do what he did last season again, he would still be a great addition to our lineup.

[specialiststeve]

Belly would be a nice addition as he would look great in center but with our roster crunch and financial frugality it is a very slim.. like 1% chance of this happening. 

[Parfigliano]

Pitching pitching pitching.  If you are going to spend big money do it on quality pitching.

[chpettit19]

Bellinger is absolutely a perfect fit for this team, but I'd be even more shocked by the news of him signing with the Twins than I was for either of the Correa deals. I'd very much like to see the Pohlads take a financial risk and invest in a winning window, but I'd put the chances of this happening at roughly .00001%.

[Cory Engelhardt]

Just now, chpettit19 said:

Bellinger is absolutely a perfect fit for this team, but I'd be even more shocked by the news of him signing with the Twins than I was for either of the Correa deals. I'd very much like to see the Pohlads take a financial risk and invest in a winning window, but I'd put the chances of this happening at roughly .00001%.

He is only 28, which is good. And really, if he hadn't had those terrible seasons before last year, he would be getting a LOT more money.

I'm not saying I think the Twins can get him. But I can absolutely understand the reasoning for spending free agent money on him compared to someone like Snell (for example.) I LOVE Snell, but that walk rate is hard to ignore.

[chpettit19]

1 minute ago, Cory Engelhardt said:

He is only 28, which is good. And really, if he hadn't had those terrible seasons before last year, he would be getting a LOT more money.

I'm not saying I think the Twins can get him. But I can absolutely understand the reasoning for spending free agent money on him compared to someone like Snell (for example.) I LOVE Snell, but that walk rate is hard to ignore.

I love Snell's upside, but have real fear of his downside. I'm quite intrigued to see where his contract comes in. He's very boom or bust from an innings standpoint so I'm interested to see how much a team invests in him over how many years. I think his holdup is probably in trying to get more years than teams want to pay him for. But good Snell would look great in a Twins uni!

But Bellinger fits in perfectly with the current Twins needs, and is in the right age spot to tie him to Correa and Buxton as the veteran core of this team. If the Twins could get him on a 5 year deal like those 2 I'd be quite happy. Just doesn't feel like a real option, though.

[Cory Engelhardt]

Just now, chpettit19 said:

I love Snell's upside, but have real fear of his downside. I'm quite intrigued to see where his contract comes in. He's very boom or bust from an innings standpoint so I'm interested to see how much a team invests in him over how many years. I think his holdup is probably in trying to get more years than teams want to pay him for. But good Snell would look great in a Twins uni!

But Bellinger fits in perfectly with the current Twins needs, and is in the right age spot to tie him to Correa and Buxton as the veteran core of this team. If the Twins could get him on a 5 year deal like those 2 I'd be quite happy. Just doesn't feel like a real option, though.

Agreed, I do hope the Twins pivot to a move like this if the trade market isn't where they can find a move. They have to go for it in this window somehow. The payroll, for many reasons, doesn't matter as much. But not adding talent to go for it right now in some form or fashion is not acceptable.

[Ricky Vaughn]

Their not going to commit to a long term contract for anyone now. If they do that, there wont be anything left for any of the young guys in a couple years.

[Otaknam]

Spend the money on a starting pitchers and bullpen help, not another left handed hitter for a left handed heavy lineup. I think the team will be depending on players like Kiriloff and Miranda to be healthy and have bounce back and healthy seasons. 

[terrydactyls]

51 minutes ago, Cory Engelhardt said:

He is only 28, which is good. And really, if he hadn't had those terrible seasons before last year, he would be getting a LOT more money.

Let me see if I understand your comment.  If a player doesn't suck for several years before having one good year, then he would make more money?  Interesting, Captain Obvious.  😇

[Cory Engelhardt]

Just now, terrydactyls said:

Let me see if I understand your comment.  If a player doesn't suck for several years before having one good year, then he would make more money?  Interesting, Captain Obvious.

I mean, if his 2021 and 2022 seasons weren't just complete disasters, for whatever reason, he would have probably signed a big deal by now this offseason right?

[terrydactyls]

3 minutes ago, Cory Engelhardt said:

I mean, if his 2021 and 2022 seasons weren't just complete disasters, for whatever reason, he would have probably signed a big deal by now this offseason right?

Obviously (thus the reference to Captain Obvious).  I went back right away and edited my comment to add a smiley emoji to indicate I wasn't criticizing but just amused by your comment.  But you responded faster than I could type.

[Cory Engelhardt]

2 minutes ago, terrydactyls said:

Obviously (thus the reference to Captain Obvious).  I went back right away and edited my comment to add a smiley emoji to indicate I wasn't criticizing but just amused by your comment.  But you responded faster than I could type.

I have been called that before. One time in high school I had a friend ask me what ice cream cones are made out of, and I didn't know off the top of my head, so I said "cone material." It wasn't my greatest moment, and Captain Obvious made sense there too :)

[TopGunn#22]

This is precisely why it's so fun to come to TD on a cold wintry day Nash !  I am of the camp that if the purse strings are unfettered in the near future (like TODAY!!) that starting pitching is the primary need, so I would prioritize Montgomery and Snell higher than Bellinger.  BUT...Belly is indeed an excellent fit.  I don't care that he's left handed.  A hitter that HITS is a hitter.  And the fact that he plays Gold Glove defense at either CF, 1B or RF doesn't hurt either.

That said, if Bellinger were signed, it would have to be a precursor for additional moves.  Moves that probably involve Kepler, Polanco and maybe Miranda.  At this point, I'm content to see what a Kirilloff/Miranda at 1B gives the Twins.  I'd like to hold onto Kepler but trade Polanco for pitching or prospects.   But if Bellinger were signed, a whole range of possible moves open up.

You could move on from Kepler because you replace him with Bellinger in the lineup.  If you compare their careers Bellinger is superior in every way.  You could trade Wallner in a deal to improve SP.  Bellinger's defensive prowess means you have a fallback plan for Buxton in CF.  You could replace Kepler in RF or have Bellinger at 1B.  Or, you trade Wallner and Bellinger would give you Gold Glove defense in LF.  How about an OF of Bellinger, Buxton and Kepler.  Best in MLB.

Adding Bellinger gives the Twins a green light to move corner OF's and you would still have Emmanuel Rodriguez and Walker Jenkins in the near future.  You wouldn't be signing Bellinger without a plan to do SOMETHING with Kepler, Wallner, Larnach, Em-Rod and Jenkins. (as well as Kirilloff and Miranda).  Jenkins is untouchable.  I've just GOT to see what Em-Rod does THIS YEAR in the minors.  But Bellinger makes a LOT of good talent expendable for the Twins to trade for pitching.  

Getting Bellinger allows the Twins to still add pitching, just through the trade market.  Making a deal for an impact pitcher is fine with me if he can be #2 behind Lopez and a solid bet to be better than Joe Ryan (who could still be VERY GOOD).  And if the price is right, I'd still add Trevor Bauer for a one year deal, maybe two, just to give Varland, Festa and Raya a little more time to polish their rough edges.  

[D.C Twins]

not-gonna-happen....

[TwinsDr2021]

Personally I don't see the Twins trading Kepler, mostly because they don't have any real depth in the outfield and if Buxton gets hurt the Twins could end up with a terrible outfield. But also because somebody like Bellinger is available, why would a team trade for Kepler and give up prospects (or pitching) when it is likely they could just sign Bellinger and keep the prospects, unless they were trying to dump salary which again why would the Twins take on Salary?

If the Twins signed Bellinger (which I don't think they will, unless it is super late and he is willing to sign a 1 year deal prove himself deal) then it opens up to trading Wallner, which again I don't think the Twins want to do.

[old nurse]

Boras clients. He wants them paid for what they could be. Any team wanting to sign them would have the same thought. The thought pattern for what they could be is just different. 

[Litdus]

3 hours ago, CRF said:

Some speculation at this time of year is fun, and keeps the imagination going...but there's absolutely no way they sign Bellinger. They won't sign Hoskins either. You can also forget about any of the remaining high end pitchers too, while you're at it. They just won't do anything that involves prying open the vault. There's a much better chance of the Lagina brothers finding treasure on Oak Island, than the Twins spending that kind of money. 

That was the same thing we said about Correa...twice.  Maybe Boras overplays his hand again and calls up his buddies to bail him out.

[ashbury]

Money aside, would Bellinger even want to come here, knowing that his assigned role will change with the whims of fate (AKA Buxton's health)?

[RpR]

1 hour ago, ashbury said:

Money aside, would Bellinger even want to come here, knowing that his assigned role will change with the whims of fate (AKA Buxton's health)?

Most likely would be in Left Field most of the time with stints at First Base.

 

[ashbury]

4 minutes ago, RpR said:

Most likely would be in Left Field most of the time with stints at First Base.

Then who covers center?  That's a lot of money to spend if we already have an in-house solution.  (And my original question remains, would he come here to play left if a similar money offer came in where he could be the man in CF?)

[RpR]

9 minutes ago, ashbury said:

Then who covers center?  That's a lot of money to spend if we already have an in-house solution.  (And my original question remains, would he come here to play left if a similar money offer came in where he could be the man in CF?)

Buxton, with Bellinger as a back-up.

I do not play God as to what goes through a ball players head.

[Trov]

6 hours ago, Beast said:

Stop pinning the cuts on the TV deal alone.  This is merely the excuse the Pohlads were waiting for.

Show you’re a serious franchise that puts out a good, entertaining product that fans demand to watch, and the TV deals will pile up outside your door.  Instead, they choose to cut every corner possible to maximize their lined pockets and try to contrive these carrots on sticks to trick fans into tagging along.  It’s tiresome and a huge percentage a fans are getting fed up with it.  

The Twins were actually one of the more watched teams via TV in recent years.  That is one of the reasons Bally agreed to pay to keep them the rest of the season, because it was one of the few deals that were making them money.  TV deals are not piling up because it is not that simple.  Right now with the change in how people are viewing it is affecting the TV market.  The Twins contract has been up since end of season and yet no new broadcaster has come along willing to pay what Bally did last year, as least as far as we know. 

The Twins payroll has been near the league average for years, but fans that think team is cheap continue to act like their payroll is near what Ray or Oakland put out.  There were 4 teams that payroll was nearly half ours, but fans act like we have the lowest payroll in the league. Outside of Padres, who are cutting a ton of payroll and reports they had to take out a loan to pay bills, every team ahead of us in payroll are much larger markets.  Twin cities is about 16h largest metro area in country, every other team is in larger market.  

If the team was a cheap as some fans like to think, they would not be near league average in payroll they would be near bottom.  They would not have went out and signed top free agents in last few years.  They would have traded buck away in his free agent year, they would not have signed CC, or Lopez to contracts.  Just because they are not spending like the top spenders does not mean they are being cheap.  League average spending is not cheap.