The Twins Have Been Great at Replacing Stars They Trade

[Nick Nelson]

They've lost some good players through their ambitious deal-swinging, but the Twins front office has never really felt the sting of these losses. That speaks to the effectiveness of their planning and strategic foresight.

Image courtesy of Tim Heitman, Matt Krohn-USA TODAY Sports

You have to give to get, and that reality makes high-profile trades in MLB a dangerous dance for front offices. Giving up high-caliber talent is a risky play, leading to heavy criticism and scrutiny when it goes wrong. Traded players going on to have success elsewhere is especially tough to stomach when they are filling roles and delivering value in a way that the Twins could sorely use.

The loss of David Ortiz is notorious for this reason, although it wasn't a trade (even worse, a DFA). Watching Ortiz emerge as an elite slugger and postseason hero in Boston was all the more gutting for Twins fans as their own team struggled to generate power, find a competent DH, or break through in the postseason following his departure. 

I also think back to moves like the Johan Santana and Matt Garza trades, which took place before the 2008 season. It's not just that these deals sent out coveted, premier talent and brought back (ultimately) underwhelming returns; it's that the Twins had no replacements for what Santana and Garza brought to the table. Their incomplete rotation held them back in 2008 (they missed the playoffs by one game, with Nick Blackburn as their No. 1 starter) and pitching would soon morph from a unique strength of the early Gardenhire-Era winners into a franchise-derailing deficiency. When trades contribute to turning an area of strength into one of dire weakness, that's some bad business.

That brings me to this front office and some of their boldest, most ambitious moves. The Twins have not been shy about trading distinguished, well-liked players and prospects under Derek Falvey's regime. Some of those players have gone on to have considerable success elsewhere. But what's striking to me, in looking back at some of their most notable trades, is how those talent losses have been offset by players who emerged to distinctly fill the holes left behind.

Allow me to cite a few examples of how we've seen this dynamic play out:

Luis Arráez was replaced by Edouard Julien.
Their belief in Julien, who was then an emerging prospect on the brink of big-league readiness, undoubtedly played a large role in the front office's willingness to part with Arráez in the Pablo López trade. It's almost astonishing how neatly and seamlessly that transition has taken place.

It'd be a stretch to say Arráez and Julien are the same player–they are stylistically very different–but in terms of value and function, they are essentially the same. Both are premier left-handed hitters and on-base threats atop the lineup. Both are fringy defensive second basemen who are arguably best suited for first base or DH long-term. While Arráez enjoyed a career year with his new team in 2023 (133 OPS+, .369 wOBA, 3.4 fWAR in 147 games), Julien damn near replicated that production as a rookie (130 OPS+, .366 wOBA, 2.8 fWAR in 109 games). 

Meanwhile, the player Minnesota received back in exchange for Arráez was, himself, a replacement for a key piece they'd traded two years earlier.

José Berríos was replaced by Pablo López.
This replacement, unlike Julien for Arráez, was not immediate. When the Twins opportunistically traded Berríos to Toronto at the 2021 deadline, they had no readily apparent replacement for him as a rotation-fronting workhorse starter. They felt that pain in 2022, trying to make do with a patchwork rotation held together by Chris Archer and Dylan Bundy, before executing their signature move the following offseason: Arráez for López.

Shortly after acquiring him, the Twins gave López what they were never inclined to give Berríos: a long-term contract extension. The former Marlin followed up with a first season arguably better than any in Berríos's career, including a pair of dominant playoff wins. It remains to be seen what the Twins will get out of the package they received from Toronto, but they have succeeded in their mission to replace Berríos with the pitcher we always wanted him to be: a legitimate ace who can go toe-to-toe with any opponent.

Mitch Garver was replaced by Ryan Jeffers.
Here's a fun fact: Among catchers who made at least 300 plate appearances last year, Garver ranked first in wOBA (.374). Right behind him at No. 2, with a .369 wOBA? Jeffers, of course. The Twins traded away the best-hitting catcher in baseball, and fell back on the second-best hitting catcher in baseball as their new starter.

We use the term "catcher" somewhat loosely there, because Garver made only 27 starts behind the plate last year, as injuries and defensive decline have moved him into more of a designated hitter role. Really, there was no better offensive catcher than Jeffers in 2023, and at age 26, he's only settling into his prime. 

Power-hitting catchers are extraordinarily difficult to find, but as a Twins fan, you wouldn't know it. They traded one of the best in the league and barely missed a beat.

Brusdar Graterol was replaced by Jhoan Durán.
In order to acquire Kenta Maeda ahead of the 2020 season, the Twins were forced to part with a special talent in Graterol, whose triple-digit heater ensorceled fans during a late-season debut in 2019. The young righthander was viewed as a potential flame-throwing, shutdown force in the late innings, and he has indeed become that for the Dodgers. Meanwhile, the Twins have developed their own (superior?) version.

Durán, who'd been acquired two years earlier in a deadline sell-off, has amazingly become all that we hoped Graterol would be: a healthy, dominant closer with overpowering heat who thrives in high leverage. The Twins franchise went six decades without ever having guys who throw like this, and suddenly they get two in rapid succession. It's almost inconceivable. Graterol set the Twins record for fastest pitch ever, and then a few years later, we've got Duran casually pacing the major leagues in velocity.

Losing great players is never easy, but Minnesota's front office has managed to consistently soften the blow by ushering in replacements for these star talents who are at least as good, and in most these cases, I'd argue they've found something even better. From my view, it's been the defining strength that fuels their success and inspires confidence.

Why does it matter now? Because the Twins are likely deep in trade conversations as we speak. If they're aiming high in their pursuit of a viable facsimile of the 2023 version of Sonny Gray, that will mean putting some quality names on the table–maybe players or prospects whom fans hold in a similar esteem to Arráez, Berríos, Garver and Graterol. But if their history is any indication, we can feel confident that the Twins will have another star player lined up to fill the void they leave behind.

What's your level of confidence that this is a repeatable skill the Minnesota front office possesses? Does that color your opinions about their offseason options? Let's discuss it.

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[Otaknam]

The potential star player who is close is Brooks Lee, who I fear they will trade for pitching. Festa might make it this year as their top starting prospect, but Raya appears to be a few years away. Rodriquez might be a trade candidate, but he is a couple of years away. Jenkins should be untouchable IMO. 

[Karbo]

The Santana trade brought back some decent players, but combined they didn't help the way Johan did. IMO he was one of the best pitchers the Twins have ever had. As far as today goes, I could see Lee or Rodriguez or even AK being traded for a top 2 type starter.

[Trov]

Keeping your minor leagues stocked up the best way to have the ability to replace people.  You can trade from depth to fill holes where you do not have depth, and you trade guys at peak value if you have young people to replace. That is how the Rays do it for years.  It takes an ability to identify possible young talent, and developing that talent in the minors. 

[Fatbat]

The obvious replaceable guys are Vasquez, Polo and Kep. We don’t need to rehash this and that again.  A different approach from the FO is a possibility as they have slowly built up depth and young talent as they have.  Its quite possible they have shifted into a different phase of championship team building. Cleaning out the lower marginal talent and prospects. I believe the first rendition of that plan was the Mahle trade that blew up on them.  It’s probably going to be tried again. Identify the best and keep them. Sell the 2nd tier guys in a group to acquire 1 top tier guy. 

[Dman]

Trading for pitching is always dangerous so it is hard to feel confident about those types of trades. Arms just break down faster than bats.  Still Arms are super important come playoff time.  You need dominant arms to win the World Series.  I just hope whatever risk they take it works out well for the Twins.

[Nashvilletwin]

Do    not    trade    Lee.

In as few as six months he very likely will be our best hitting and fielding SS for 1/30th of the cost of our current SS. He is the ideal player for a small/mid-market franchise like the Twins - fringe All-Star capability at low price and controllable over a half decade.  These are exactly the types of players the Twins need to compete on year in and year out basis.

Want to trade a “big’ name to bring back a top starter to replace Gray? The ideal trade candidate is actually Correa.  He’s the overpriced, declining player who can be easily replaced by a better, cheaper emerging talent.  However, we all know that won’t happen because a) his value isn’t worth his deal (which we could partially solve by paying some of his salary) and b) that would be a lot to ask of the FO after their “coup” FA signing of him.  My hope is that he has a great year in 2024 and he becomes movable after that.

[jmlease1]

26 minutes ago, Nashvilletwin said:

Do    not    trade    Lee.

In as few as six months he very likely will be our best hitting and fielding SS for 1/30th of the cost of our current SS. He is the ideal player for a small/mid-market franchise like the Twins - fringe All-Star capability at low price and controllable over a half decade.  These are exactly the types of players the Twins need to compete on year in and year out basis.

Want to trade a “big’ name to bring back a top starter to replace Gray? The ideal trade candidate is actually Correa.  He’s the overpriced, declining player who can be easily replaced by a better, cheaper emerging talent.  However, we all know that won’t happen because a) his value isn’t worth his deal (which we could partially solve by paying some of his salary) and b) that would be a lot to ask of the FO after their “coup” FA signing of him.  My hope is that he has a great year in 2024 and he becomes movable after that.

So, Correa is already a declining player because he had a mediocre season while dealing with a significant injury that you want to dump, but if he bounces back and plays like he's capable of we should still trade him? To make room for Brooks Lee? Correa still isn't even 30.

I love Brooks Lee, but he does not have the hands of Correa and certainly not the arm. SS has been a huge pain for this franchise and we've churned through a lot of mediocre to bad players in that slot over the last 15 years and never had anyone who has Correa's combination of offense and defense; at best it's been one or the other and frequently it hasn't been enough of either.

I have little interest in dealing Brooks Lee, as there will be plenty of room for him on the roster if Polanco is traded or simply finishes his contract. But I really don't understand why Twins fans seem to turn on their highest paid players at the first opportunity. Correa was great his first year with the Twins, and mediocre/poor (mediocre by twins SS standards, poor by his) in 2023 (while being everything we wanted in the playoffs). And if he's great again this season, people are still looking to dump him?

[GV14218]

“Graterol, whose triple-digit heater ensorceled fans during a late-season debut in 2019.” Ensorceled?  Indeed.  Way to use the language.  I wish my college students were that creative. 

[roger]

1 hour ago, Fatbat said:

The obvious replaceable guys are Vasquez, Polo and Kep. We don’t need to rehash this and that again.  A different approach from the FO is a possibility as they have slowly built up depth and young talent as they have.  Its quite possible they have shifted into a different phase of championship team building. Cleaning out the lower marginal talent and prospects. I believe the first rendition of that plan was the Mahle trade that blew up on them.  It’s probably going to be tried again. Identify the best and keep them. Sell the 2nd tier guys in a group to acquire 1 top tier guy. 

I keep reading what you said, Fatbat.  That is that Vasquez, Polo and Kep are easily replaceable.  I then ask, who is going to replace Kepler?  No one in the organization is going to equal or even come close to his defense, well at least until Jenkins may be ready.  And once his brain understood what the lack of the shift was, his bat was very good.  Sure, Larnach may be good in 2024, but can you count on him?  I doubt so.

Agree with your comment regarding the otehr two, although Polo has been one of my favorite Twins for a long time.

[SteveLV]

With Kepler, in my mind at least, they really have two sensible options:  Either trade him or extend him.

It would be foolish to just let him play out the season and lose him for nothing next year, unless he plays so well you will extend a QO he would decline.  And in that case, you should have extended him now.

His trade value is higher now that at the trade deadline.

I would try and extend him if I ran the FO.  If his contract demands were unreasonable, shop him.  He is a darn good player and should be a valuable trade asset.

[Fatbat]

32 minutes ago, jmlease1 said:

So, Correa is already a declining player because he had a mediocre season while dealing with a significant injury that you want to dump, but if he bounces back and plays like he's capable of we should still trade him? To make room for Brooks Lee? Correa still isn't even 30.

I love Brooks Lee, but he does not have the hands of Correa and certainly not the arm. SS has been a huge pain for this franchise and we've churned through a lot of mediocre to bad players in that slot over the last 15 years and never had anyone who has Correa's combination of offense and defense; at best it's been one or the other and frequently it hasn't been enough of either.

I have little interest in dealing Brooks Lee, as there will be plenty of room for him on the roster if Polanco is traded or simply finishes his contract. But I really don't understand why Twins fans seem to turn on their highest paid players at the first opportunity. Correa was great his first year with the Twins, and mediocre/poor (mediocre by twins SS standards, poor by his) in 2023 (while being everything we wanted in the playoffs). And if he's great again this season, people are still looking to dump him?

I believe his point was that  if Correa has a bounce back year and plays like the allstar he is, his remaining contract is certainly tradable. I doubt the FO would trade C4 any time before ‘26 but if the right offer came along, they would have to take a serious look.  As for ‘24, we have role player questions at 3 positions and about 8 guys that can fill those roles so we aren’t hurting for options other than an ace SP.  as per usual, if we get 2-3 rookies to bust into the bigs and even most of the role players to bounce back in ‘24, the only problem we have is to decide who to keep and who to sell. There is zero need to rush anything in this offseason. 

[Fatbat]

26 minutes ago, roger said:

I keep reading what you said, Fatbat.  That is that Vasquez, Polo and Kep are easily replaceable.  I then ask, who is going to replace Kepler?  No one in the organization is going to equal or even come close to his defense, well at least until Jenkins may be ready.  And once his brain understood what the lack of the shift was, his bat was very good.  Sure, Larnach may be good in 2024, but can you count on him?  I doubt so.

Agree with your comment regarding the otehr two, although Polo has been one of my favorite Twins for a long time.

Kep is only replaceable at this point by shifting Wallner to right. WAR may be similar but Keps elite defence is absolutely not replaceable.  Kep should not be traded for the exact reasons you stated. 
If Kep is traded, we may possibly be playing the OF short a guy or two for the next 2 years until Erod and Jenkins arrive.  That isn’t even close to the best scenario which is why even on an expiring contract, Kep will remain here for ‘24. 
I seriously think the FO will do very little this whole offseason and am confident that strategy will work. 

[tony&rodney]

So maybe if getting a good starting pitcher is so important the Twins should be discussing what type of return is possible for Royce Lewis. 

[AlGoreRythm]

1 hour ago, Nashvilletwin said:

Do    not    trade    Lee.

In as few as six months he very likely will be our best hitting and fielding SS for 1/30th of the cost of our current SS. He is the ideal player for a small/mid-market franchise like the Twins - fringe All-Star capability at low price and controllable over a half decade.  These are exactly the types of players the Twins need to compete on year in and year out basis.

Want to trade a “big’ name to bring back a top starter to replace Gray? The ideal trade candidate is actually Correa.  He’s the overpriced, declining player who can be easily replaced by a better, cheaper emerging talent.  However, we all know that won’t happen because a) his value isn’t worth his deal (which we could partially solve by paying some of his salary) and b) that would be a lot to ask of the FO after their “coup” FA signing of him.  My hope is that he has a great year in 2024 and he becomes movable after that.

Correa has a full no trade clause bud.

He made it clear he wanted to stay and raise his family wherever he signed his big contract. I seriously doubt he'd waive the no trade clause this early in the contract simply because you want him to lol

He's also the best SS we've seen in MN since I've been alive. You don't trade those players in real life if you're a mid-sized franchise like the Twins, even if you'd do it in a video game in favor of a youth movement.

Also everything I've read on Lee indicates he's not an MLB SS. He'll move down the spectrum to 2B or 3B according to literally anyone who's not just an Internet commenter.

[PDX Twin]

"ensorceled"

Great word! Had to look it up.

[AlGoreRythm]

58 minutes ago, roger said:

I keep reading what you said, Fatbat.  That is that Vasquez, Polo and Kep are easily replaceable.  I then ask, who is going to replace Kepler?  No one in the organization is going to equal or even come close to his defense, well at least until Jenkins may be ready.  And once his brain understood what the lack of the shift was, his bat was very good.  Sure, Larnach may be good in 2024, but can you count on him?  I doubt so.

Agree with your comment regarding the otehr two, although Polo has been one of my favorite Twins for a long time.

There's 0 evidence the shift restrictions have anything to do with Kep's great 2nd half.

It was a good half season, but let's not assume it's his new level of play because now something clicked with shift restrictions. I'm not convinced his 2nd half is even repeatable, let alone his new normal.

Just look at the rest of his career. He grounds out to 2nd and pops up, hits .220, then has a good stretch of an undefined length during the season, That good stretch lasted most of the season in 2019, the second half last year, and I believe he had one other very good half season earlier than 2019, but that's about it.

[chpettit19]

1 hour ago, Nashvilletwin said:

Do    not    trade    Lee.

In as few as six months he very likely will be our best hitting and fielding SS for 1/30th of the cost of our current SS. He is the ideal player for a small/mid-market franchise like the Twins - fringe All-Star capability at low price and controllable over a half decade.  These are exactly the types of players the Twins need to compete on year in and year out basis.

Want to trade a “big’ name to bring back a top starter to replace Gray? The ideal trade candidate is actually Correa.  He’s the overpriced, declining player who can be easily replaced by a better, cheaper emerging talent.  However, we all know that won’t happen because a) his value isn’t worth his deal (which we could partially solve by paying some of his salary) and b) that would be a lot to ask of the FO after their “coup” FA signing of him.  My hope is that he has a great year in 2024 and he becomes movable after that.

Brooks Lee has no shot at ever being the fielder Correa is. 0% chance. That simply isn't ever going to happen. And he's also unlikely to ever be the hitter Correa has been when healthy. Lee ever putting up 1 full season with a 130+ OPS+ would be a great outcome for the Twins. Suggesting Lee is going to pass Correa this season is a real hot take.

[Brandon]

The Twins front office have shown nothing but top level respect for Correa and the Twins are contenders for the foreseeable future even with a limited budget.  Minnesota is a much better place than many of the other Major League cities to raise a family.  I doubt Correa looks to be traded anytime soon if ever.  It’s fine as even though he had a lower batting average due to injury, he was still a leader other players could look up to and with Lewis, Julien, Killeroff, Jeffers, Wallner and Larnarch on the team and Gordon and Castro to.  Correa is a good asset to have for the team.  

You could also add the Brian Dozier trade since Polanco moved over and took over 2B.  

[Nashvilletwin]

1 hour ago, jmlease1 said:

So, Correa is already a declining player because he had a mediocre season while dealing with a significant injury that you want to dump, but if he bounces back and plays like he's capable of we should still trade him? To make room for Brooks Lee? Correa still isn't even 30.

I love Brooks Lee, but he does not have the hands of Correa and certainly not the arm. SS has been a huge pain for this franchise and we've churned through a lot of mediocre to bad players in that slot over the last 15 years and never had anyone who has Correa's combination of offense and defense; at best it's been one or the other and frequently it hasn't been enough of either.

I have little interest in dealing Brooks Lee, as there will be plenty of room for him on the roster if Polanco is traded or simply finishes his contract. But I really don't understand why Twins fans seem to turn on their highest paid players at the first opportunity. Correa was great his first year with the Twins, and mediocre/poor (mediocre by twins SS standards, poor by his) in 2023 (while being everything we wanted in the playoffs). And if he's great again this season, people are still looking to dump him?

Yes, I would trade Correa if possible.  But that probably won’t be advisable nor feasible until next season based on his performance in ‘24.

My point is that in this revenue environment, the Twins have to be all about value produced per dollar spent.  Your points about Correa’s arm and glove are noted (although I’m not sure the actually data backs up your claims as much as you seem to imply)

But it very well could be that in 2025 an infield of Lewis at 3rd, Noah Miller (minor league gold glove at SS - which is saying a lot), and Lee at 2B - all on league minimum - is superior to keeping Correa at SS spending $30MM+ for him. That $30MM is HUGE for the Twins and could be applied in a much more efficient way instead of on a little above average fielding but middling hitting shortstop who is possibly close to being replaceable at a 1/30th the cost.

For the Twins to maximize their ability to truly contend every year (i.e. not just go all in one season), it’s all about value produced per dollar spent.  You must see that.

[Nashvilletwin]

38 minutes ago, chpettit19 said:

Brooks Lee has no shot at ever being the fielder Correa is. 0% chance. That simply isn't ever going to happen. And he's also unlikely to ever be the hitter Correa has been when healthy. Lee ever putting up 1 full season with a 130+ OPS+ would be a great outcome for the Twins. Suggesting Lee is going to pass Correa this season is a real hot take.

I’d appreciate if one of our fellow TDers who knows where to get the defensive metrics data could post where Correa was ranked as a SS in 2023.  I genuinely would like to know.

[Blyleven2011]

If the FO is going to make trades  ...

they are better  at making trades during the off season with patience  ...

They have been worse at the trade deadline  , haste makes waste  , and the deadline trades have not helped the twins , they were brutal for this front office  , even the berrios deadline trade hasn't come to fruition yet and that wasn't a trade of haste ...

 

[Nashvilletwin]

39 minutes ago, Brandon said:

The Twins front office have shown nothing but top level respect for Correa and the Twins are contenders for the foreseeable future even with a limited budget.  Minnesota is a much better place than many of the other Major League cities to raise a family.  I doubt Correa looks to be traded anytime soon if ever.  It’s fine as even though he had a lower batting average due to injury, he was still a leader other players could look up to and with Lewis, Julien, Killeroff, Jeffers, Wallner and Larnarch on the team and Gordon and Castro to.  Correa is a good asset to have for the team.  

You could also add the Brian Dozier trade since Polanco moved over and took over 2B.  

Are the Twins truly a contender?  Seriously, are they?  With their current starting staff are they among the favorites to win it all this year.  Or is “they should win the Central and then anything can happen” good enough?
 

I didn’t mean to touch the third rail this morning by suggesting that Correa would be my trade candidate (I mean, it’s not like I’m suggesting cutting social security).  My point is only that in a value/$ environment -which is where our beloved Twins live - he is a bit of an outlier and not in a positive sense.

[twinzcynic]

I would agree mostly with this article; however, I believe bWAR is a slightly better measure than fWAR, and the difference in bWAR between Arraez and Julien (who I actually like) is a bit more pronounced (4.9 WAR to 2.6 WAR).

[chpettit19]

14 minutes ago, Nashvilletwin said:

I’d appreciate if one of our fellow TDers who knows where to get the defensive metrics data could post where Correa was ranked as a SS in 2023.  I genuinely would like to know.

He was 20th amongst SSs in 2023 in OAAs. But that's not even the key to Lee not being as good as him. Lee is the point here. Lee simply isn't that kind of fielder, and has nowhere near the arm strength.

[Nashvilletwin]

52 minutes ago, chpettit19 said:

Brooks Lee has no shot at ever being the fielder Correa is. 0% chance. That simply isn't ever going to happen. And he's also unlikely to ever be the hitter Correa has been when healthy. Lee ever putting up 1 full season with a 130+ OPS+ would be a great outcome for the Twins. Suggesting Lee is going to pass Correa this season is a real hot take.

I’m sorry, but that is not only not the case, but it is also irrelevant.

Correa is a fine fielder. And has been a decent hitter. But we still do not know how Lee will develop in both disciplines. 

But the true point is: for the Minnesota Twins is Correa’s marginal outperformance in one or both of these areas worth $30MM?  Sorry, I just don’t think so when that $30MM is the difference between a true legit #1 starter and a hopeful #5.

[Nashvilletwin]

2 minutes ago, chpettit19 said:

He was 20th amongst SSs in 2023 in OAAs. But that's not even the key to Lee not being as good as him. Lee is the point here. Lee simply isn't that kind of fielder, and has nowhere near the arm strength.

Who cares?  Is that arm strength or a little softer glove worth $30MM? Could be if you’re the Dodgers.  It isn’t IMHO if you’re Twins.  Just my opinion.  

[Brandon]

14 minutes ago, Nashvilletwin said:

Are the Twins truly a contender?  Seriously, are they?  With their current starting staff are they among the favorites to win it all this year.  Or is “they should win the Central and then anything can happen” good enough?
 

I didn’t mean to touch the third rail this morning by suggesting that Correa would be my trade candidate (I mean, it’s not like I’m suggesting cutting social security).  My point is only that in a value/$ environment -which is where our beloved Twins live - he is a bit of an outlier and not in a positive sense.

That is exactly what a contender is.  A team who should make the playoffs where anything can happen.  I mean the Rangers and Diamondbacks were both just contenders last season.  It’s not like they were any better than the Twins.  

[Blyleven2011]

13 minutes ago, Nashvilletwin said:

Are the Twins truly a contender?  Seriously, are they?  With their current starting staff are they among the favorites to win it all this year.  Or is “they should win the Central and then anything can happen” good enough?
 

The twins should be able to win a weak division with the roster they have projected today ...

They are not a playoff caliber contender like they were last year with this roster going into 2024  ...

That's good enough for the Pohlads  , they want a winning team during the season to draw fans into the seats  , they won't spend for a contender at least this year due to budget reduction ...

Twins fans want a winner ,  I want a new owner that wants to win it all ... 

With the way big contracts are and not shelling out free agency money it is time for the Pohlads to sell ...

We just aren't keeping up with the Jones  ...

The Timberwolves sold for more value than the team was estimated at , I think the Pohlads could get close to 2 billion for the team  even though it's only valued at 1.3 billion as of last year ...

 

[chpettit19]

4 minutes ago, Nashvilletwin said:

I’m sorry, but that is not only not the case, but it is also irrelevant.

Correa is a fine fielder. And has been a decent hitter. But we still do not know how Lee will develop in both disciplines. 

But the true point is: for the Minnesota Twins is Correa’s marginal outperformance in one or both of these areas worth $30MM?  Sorry, I just don’t think so when that $30MM is the difference between a true legit #1 starter and a hopeful #5.

It is the case. You don't even have to be a pro scout to watch both Correa and Lee field and see that they're not even close to the same level. Lee has physical limitations that simply will not allow him to be the type of fielder Correa is, and has been. A "decent hitter?" Unless you believe 29 year old Correa has no chance of bouncing back moving forward after his injury plagued 2023, he is far more than a "decent hitter." By any measure. If you're convinced Correa's toast at the age of 29, ok. But he has a career OPS+ of 124. That is far better than "decent," especially for a SS. He had a 138 OPS+ in 2022 for the Twins. 

Chances are Correa's "outperformance" isn't "marginal," it's significant. $30MM is also the difference between a superstar SS and a hopeful MLB quality SS. Are Louie Varland, Bailey Ober, and Joe Ryan all worse options than Brooks Lee would be? Because when you talk about "true legit #1 starter and hopeful #5" those are the league minimum guys you're talking about. It's the same argument.

Your argument seems to be that the Twins would be better off having Brooks Lee (or Noah freaking Miller apparently) at SS and Jordan Montgomery (just an available FA option) in the rotation over having Louie Varland in the rotation and Carlos Correa at SS. I fail to see the dramatic difference.