The Twins Have Been Great at Replacing Stars They Trade

[jmlease1]

1 hour ago, Major League Ready said:

I might be missing something here but I think you are looking at a bWAR metric for batting only.  fWAR considers defense and when defense is considered Arraez and Julien had about equal WAR.  If Julien's defensive continues to improve, that gap between the two metrics will continue to widen unless Arraez also improves defensively.

bWAR also counts defense, they just seem to frame it differently. 

[Nick Nelson]

19 hours ago, DocBauer said:

HUGE tip of my many Twins and milb caps to Nick for this word choice and for ashbury for a spell correction! 

LOL!

I'm a bit of writer and poet with a wonderful vocabulary that even surprises others at times. But I've NEVER heard this word before! I even had to look it up. WONDERFUL! THANK YOU!

I'm going to have to remember this one!

Come on Nick, tell the truth, did you look this one up in a thesaurus? Or did you just learn it over time the way some of writers/poets/English majors just know words like lithe and myriad? 😀

I must confess that Mr. Trueblood added that word during his editorial review, so I can't take credit. I had to look it up too 😂

[Nick Nelson]

23 hours ago, Blyleven2011 said:

The twins should be able to win a weak division with the roster they have projected today ...

They are not a playoff caliber contender like they were last year with this roster going into 2024  ...

That's good enough for the Pohlads  , they want a winning team during the season to draw fans into the seats  , they won't spend for a contender at least this year due to budget reduction ...

For what it's worth - the Twins currently have the 10th-best odds to win the 2024 World Series, according to Vegas. Last year they ranked 19th before the season. 

[Major League Ready]

12 minutes ago, jmlease1 said:

bWAR also counts defense, they just seem to frame it differently. 

By frame to you mean weight?  I looked at their definition but it's hard to tell why they differ so much.  They should be relatively close based on other stats.  The had almost the same wRC+.  136 for Juulien and 132 for Arraez.  Julien's defensive metrics are a bit better.  Julien's fWAR is 82% of Arraez but he had 78% of the playing time as Arraez.  Given WAR is cumulative, this makes sense in rough terms.  Julien's bWAR is only 53% of Arraez which does not make sense.

[Mike Sixel]

Nick's point stands, but I think they'll struggle to replace Gray's contribution this year.....

Also, it would be nice if they kept guys and added guys, rather than replacing them, so the team got better. Like, keep Gray and add Montgomery is better than lose Gray and add Montgomery (it's an example, not realistic with their budget).

I love Lee, but projecting him to be as good as CC is odd to me. CC was on a HoF path .... and still might be if he's healthy for the next 5 years.

[mickster]

22 hours ago, tony&rodney said:

Would you trade Pablo Lopez for Lee? Julien? What kind of deal would work using all players in the Twins system to trade for Lopez? Every team wants more pitching.

Yes -  Lee for Lopez would have been a deal I would have done.  Agreed, everyone wants pitching so the price will be high to acquire.   But with so many young players, adding a quality #2 starter seems the thing to do 

[tony&rodney]

10 minutes ago, mickster said:

Yes -  Lee for Lopez would have been a deal I would have done.  Agreed, everyone wants pitching so the price will be high to acquire.   But with so many young players, adding a quality #2 starter seems the thing to do 

Ok, great. That would work for me too. Now do you think Miami would trade Luzardo for Lee or that Seattle would trade Gilbert or Kirby for Lee? Do the Twins need to add someone? Trading for a #2 SP looks tough.

[mickster]

25 minutes ago, tony&rodney said:

Ok, great. That would work for me too. Now do you think Miami would trade Luzardo for Lee or that Seattle would trade Gilbert or Kirby for Lee? Do the Twins need to add someone? Trading for a #2 SP looks tough.

It will take more than Lee..............just not sure how much.   I am thinking SWR and a lower level prospect for either.