The Twins Have Been Great at Replacing Stars They Trade

[Blyleven2011]

16 minutes ago, Brandon said:

That is exactly what a contender is.  A team who should make the playoffs where anything can happen.  I mean the Rangers and Diamondbacks were both just contenders last season.  It’s not like they were any better than the Twins.  

Hello Brandon  , I almost gave you a thumbs down  , but you are right the 2 teams in the world series were just season contenders and anything can happen  in the playoffs  ...

I would like the Twins to be stronger contenders than a team that can just win a weak division  , we had a good second half of 2023 to win the division  and won some playoff games , we had confidence that we were going to break the losing streak  and we did ...

That confidence  has been lost so far this off season  as we haven't  added any strength  back into the rotation  after losing gray and maeda  ...

Pitching is what kept us in alot of games last year  and won some playoff games  ...

Where's the confidence if we don't add a quality starting pitcher for the playoffs,  i don't  want another dreadful 2 years like 2021 and 2022 ...

[Heiny]

I get a real kick out of Twins fans.  We love the idea of the cheap Pohlads actually spending some money on upper tier ballplayers like Correa, because we know they would never.  Until they do, LOL, then it's a horribll decision, because that player ain't worth all that money we're paying them.  We had this same situation but even more lambasted by the fans with the Mauer contract.  If the Twins would have "not" signed Mauer, half the fans would have threatened to never watch a Twins game again.  But after signing him to a relatively team friendly deal, (yes, Mauer signed for less to stay with the Twins), Twins fans complain for years about his albatross of a contract.  Where did that "Minnesota nice idea" come from?  I'm starting to see nothing but Minnesota Whiney.  Hey how bout them cheap Pohlads spend another 100M a year.  Maybe we could have a season like the Padres.  Can't wait to see the comments after that season.

[Fatbat]

1 hour ago, Nashvilletwin said:

Are the Twins truly a contender?  Seriously, are they?  With their current starting staff are they among the favorites to win it all this year.  Or is “they should win the Central and then anything can happen” good enough?
 

I didn’t mean to touch the third rail this morning by suggesting that Correa would be my trade candidate (I mean, it’s not like I’m suggesting cutting social security).  My point is only that in a value/$ environment -which is where our beloved Twins live - he is a bit of an outlier and not in a positive sense.

I think some people don’t like to discuss out of the box ideas on TD. 
Some people like to throw things out and are tough enough to take the feedback and others are not. 
the Twins are not a lock to go deep into the playoffs but with just a little growth from some young guys and/or an acquisition of the right top tier role player or two, we can be that team that no one wants to play in October. 
As a younger team and having our two most expensive stars coming off injury riddled seasons, there are so many ways ‘24 can go which is why we should not trade our depth. We are going to need it but maybe at some point we won’t.  
sometimes I get ahead of myself but I absolutely believe that every year should be impacted by 2-3 rookies. ‘24 should be no different! Guys are coming to the show fast and mngmnt will figure out where to play them and maximize the roster, production and wins. Its great to discuss and prognosticate on here. They probably don’t listen or care what we think but its a lot of fun to pontificate.  A good bet is that sooner or later, someone that we think is not going to get traded, will be…. and we will not like it. 

[TwinsDr2021]

1 hour ago, Nashvilletwin said:

But it very well could be that in 2025 an infield of Lewis at 3rd, Noah Miller (minor league gold glove at SS - which is saying a lot), and Lee at 2B - all on league minimum - is superior to keeping Correa at SS spending $30MM+ for him.

Or Lewis could get hurt, Miller continues to hit ,223 with a .648 OPS in A ball, and Lee shows he more Gordon/Castro then Julien/Arraez/Polanco, which could set the team back years.

With that said if I was the Twins I would have given the starting 2nd basemen job to Lee to start the season. Put Julien (backup at 2nd if Lee ends up needing more time) at DH and trade Polanco, A team likes the Twins has to have prospects back filling positions each year. You start Wallner/Buxton/Kepler in the outfield with Larnach being the first man up for a corner spot and bring in a right handed bat that can play center with Martin backing him up in AAA.

[ashbury]

3 hours ago, GV14218 said:

“Graterol, whose triple-digit heater ensorceled fans during a late-season debut in 2019.” Ensorceled?  Indeed.  Way to use the language.  I wish my college students were that creative. 

Needs two l's.  😄

[tony&rodney]

2 hours ago, tony&rodney said:

So maybe if getting a good starting pitcher is so important the Twins should be discussing what type of return is possible for Royce Lewis. 

Interesting experiment. If one just throws out the name of Royce Lewis, instant recoil, disfavor, and derision is a result. No need to wait hours to see the full reaction.

The Twins have a decent team right now, but Kirby or Gilbert, just to name two, are not available for prospects or Polanco/Kepler plus prospects. I'm assuming the one player totally off limits is Walker Jenkins. While the Twins should keep Royce Lewis to see what they have in the young third baseman, he is the only name that would work in a deal for a top starting pitcher. The Larnach (fill in the name) plus similar others doesn't work.

The idea of strengthening the offense is one I can get behind. The Twins had some solid depth last season, which has already been pointed out. Trading any of Polanco, Kepler, Farmer, or Vazquez weakens that depth after the team has already seen Solano, Farmer, and Gallo move on as expected. Those three had 1170 PA. I think Riverbrain gave a full account on the argument for offense.

Nobody has an idea of where the final roster budget will rest. Perhaps someone could put up a poll. Do you think the front office will sign Jordan Montgomery or Blake Snell if trades cleared $27.1 million? That is JP, MK, & KF.

The Twins are not signing a high priced free agent. Thus, all talk about putting cost savings toward pitching is moot. 

Buxton and Correa have no trade clauses in their contracts. Discussions of that type belong in the fantasy league sections. 

Other teams face similar difficult situations. Seattle gets discussed quite a bit and Trader Jerry has been spinning the roster and clearing money. Seattle has a couple of fine utility players and feel that a return to Seattle will help resurrect Haniger. So Raley and Haniger vs. Wallner and Kepler? Urias and Rojas vs. Lewis and Polanco/Julien? Really pointless because there is an entire roster to consider, but you get the idea. Every team faces some challenges. The Twins need all of their starting pitchers to do their best and the offense needs to take a big step forward in the coming year.

[mickster]

To make an impact trade and take advantage of the talent we have, talent will need to go.  If it takes Lee to secure a #2 starter with control -- then you do it.   If not Lee, then Julien, Martin, and other young prospects will need to go.,

[Major League Ready]

1 hour ago, Nashvilletwin said:

I’d appreciate if one of our fellow TDers who knows where to get the defensive metrics data could post where Correa was ranked as a SS in 2023.  I genuinely would like to know.

Here is one link.  He was roughly average based on Statcast.

[jmlease1]

1 hour ago, Nashvilletwin said:

Yes, I would trade Correa if possible.  But that probably won’t be advisable nor feasible until next season based on his performance in ‘24.

My point is that in this revenue environment, the Twins have to be all about value produced per dollar spent.  Your points about Correa’s arm and glove are noted (although I’m not sure the actually data backs up your claims as much as you seem to imply)

But it very well could be that in 2025 an infield of Lewis at 3rd, Noah Miller (minor league gold glove at SS - which is saying a lot), and Lee at 2B - all on league minimum - is superior to keeping Correa at SS spending $30MM+ for him. That $30MM is HUGE for the Twins and could be applied in a much more efficient way instead of on a little above average fielding but middling hitting shortstop who is possibly close to being replaceable at a 1/30th the cost.

For the Twins to maximize their ability to truly contend every year (i.e. not just go all in one season), it’s all about value produced per dollar spent.  You must see that.

Here's the thing: this only applies if Correa is the 2023 version. Noah Miller would have to be Andrelton Simmons-level of defense to match Correa's 2023 production which is a giant bar to pass for a player who has never played an inning above A-ball. (and BTW, Simmons was a bad hitter, and his worst season as a hitter in the minors was better than Miller's best at this point.) If 2022 Correa is on tap, then this is money well-spent.

But the other part of it is value for money is greater with star-quality players. While $ value per WAR is a useful enough thumbnail, the actual value of 1 WAR is greater from 4 to 5 than it is from 1-2, because there are a lot fewer players capable of producing 5 WAR.

If you spend it on an elite starting pitcher, you're probably just moving the chairs around, unless Carlos Correa is washed up at 29. Notably, this is going to have the same risk with any FA pitcher we could spend the money on (how did Carlos Rodon work out in 2023?) too, so you're not really reducing your risk. If you spend it on 2 players, then you're having to make a bet that you are going to get it right on 2 players that are undervalued in the market. I mean, it would be great to bring in 2 versions of 2023 Sonny Gray for $15M a pop, but...that seems unrealistic. Could you get 2 pitchers around that price that are likely to bring you 2-3 bWAR? It's possible, and it might even be more likely that they'll collectively generate more bWAR than Correa, but it also doesn't raise the ceiling on your team.

(I'm using WAR as a shorthand for value here, not because it's the end-all-be-all of stats, but just because it's the easiest for comps)

I guess I can't get behind the idea that Correa is washed up at 29. Especially not after seeing him in the playoffs.

[Jocko87]

They have been pretty good trading from positions of strength and even the lower level trades follow the pattern.  It only makes good sense as a basic strategy but visualizing it this way should help those with prospectawayitis.

Nelson Cruz begat Luis Arraez (and opened DH)

CES and Steer were available because of Brooks Lee and Austin Martin.

They've traded several relievers (sometimes for bad relievers) but still ended up with a darn good bullpen.

The one area they seem to have struggled is LF but I believe they feel like they can fill LF similar to the bullpen.  There really hasn't been someone who took over left since they let Rosario leave and traded Rooker.  Leave Lamont Wade out of this, lol.  It would be a reasonable assumption that someone would have stepped up in left and there were several that should have but here we are.

 

[Woof Bronzer]

1 hour ago, chpettit19 said:

Your argument seems to be that the Twins would be better off having Brooks Lee (or Noah freaking Miller apparently) at SS and Jordan Montgomery (just an available FA option) in the rotation over having Louie Varland in the rotation and Carlos Correa at SS. I fail to see the dramatic difference.

Not to speak for the poster, but I think a person can have 2 thoughts at the same time.  1) Correa is better than Brooks Lee at this point in their careers, and quite possibly Lee will never be the player Correa is/was.  2) under self-imposed salary constraints, allocating 1/4 of the team's payroll to 1 player isn't sustainable or particularly intelligent (especially given Correa's health issues), and the difference between Correa and Lee isn't enough to justify a premium north of $30 mil.  

 

[Woof Bronzer]

39 minutes ago, Heiny said:

I get a real kick out of Twins fans.  We love the idea of the cheap Pohlads actually spending some money on upper tier ballplayers like Correa, because we know they would never.  Until they do, LOL, then it's a horribll decision, because that player ain't worth all that money we're paying them.  

To this fan at least, it makes zero sense to sign Correa to the biggest FA deal in team history and then after one year cut payroll and get worse.  What's the point of signing a guy like that if you aren't really interested in consistently building a winning team around him during the length of the contract?  Seriously, if it's all about the payroll just sign a scrap heap SS and spend the savings on other assets, pitching in particular.  

[chpettit19]

1 minute ago, Woof Bronzer said:

Not to speak for the poster, but I think a person can have 2 thoughts at the same time.  1) Correa is better than Brooks Lee at this point in their careers, and quite possibly Lee will never be the player Correa is/was.  2) under self-imposed salary constraints, allocating 1/4 of the team's payroll to 1 player isn't sustainable or particularly intelligent (especially given Correa's health issues), and the difference between Correa and Lee isn't enough to justify a premium north of $30 mil.  

 

Which is totally fine. Good luck building a winner without ever paying for premium talent (even the Rays hand out big contracts here and there, so do the Guardians). If you have 3 guys in your rotation, your closer, 2 IFers, and at least 1 OFer on league minimum deals you can afford to splurge on a 30 mil guy. If they weren't paying Correa where would that 30 mil go?

The other poster mentioned 30 mil being the difference between a legit #1 starter and a hopeful #5. Well our league minimum starters are Ryan, Ober, and Varland. Are those "hopeful #5s?" Is Brooks Lee anything more than a hopeful MLB quality SS? Sure, in a vacuum having 1 guy take up 33 mil of a 120 mil payroll isn't ideal, but this isn't a vacuum. Where else should that money go for this real life team that is a clear and obvious upgrade to the 2024, and future, Twins teams that no longer would include Carlos Correa?

[tony&rodney]

30 minutes ago, mickster said:

To make an impact trade and take advantage of the talent we have, talent will need to go.  If it takes Lee to secure a #2 starter with control -- then you do it.   If not Lee, then Julien, Martin, and other young prospects will need to go.,

Would you trade Pablo Lopez for Lee? Julien? What kind of deal would work using all players in the Twins system to trade for Lopez? Every team wants more pitching.

[jmlease1]

double-post

Edited January 9, 2024 by jmlease1
double post

[Woof Bronzer]

1 hour ago, chpettit19 said:

Which is totally fine. Good luck building a winner without ever paying for premium talent (even the Rays hand out big contracts here and there, so do the Guardians). If you have 3 guys in your rotation, your closer, 2 IFers, and at least 1 OFer on league minimum deals you can afford to splurge on a 30 mil guy. If they weren't paying Correa where would that 30 mil go?

I too wish the Twins would show interest in building a consistent winner.  I also think there are plenty of spots to spend $30mil (ahem, pitching) - seems like you are suggesting the team is so stacked they couldn't find a way to spend it.  Which would be a take.  

[chpettit19]

2 minutes ago, Woof Bronzer said:

I too wish the Twins would show interest in building a consistent winner.  I also think there are plenty of spots to spend $30mil (ahem, pitching) - seems like you are suggesting the team is so stacked they couldn't find a way to spend it.  Which would be a take.  

Not at all what I'm suggesting. I'm asking for a real life example of how they could spend it to improve the team while no longer having Correa. If you take Correa out of the SS spot and put Lee there (or whatever league minimum guy you want) where are you spending that money? You want more pitching? Who? Jordan Montgomery? As I stated earlier, I don't see a dramatic difference in the team with Montgomery in the rotation and Lee at SS compared to Varland in the rotation and Correa at SS. And at that point you're still paying 1 player 30 mil of a 120 mil payroll, so how is that any different?

Are you not looking to just add 1 stud to the rotation? Who are the 2 15 mil a year guys you're adding and who's coming off the roster? 3 10 mil guys? Same question, who are they and who's coming off? You guys are just saying "Correa makes too much of the payroll and his money could be used elsewhere" without providing any real examples of how that can be done. Show me a clearly better roster that takes Correa out and spends the money elsewhere.

[DocBauer]

Well, this OP sort of went sideways didn't it? LOL.

But back to Nick's OP:

1] It's OK to love, appreciate, and miss Arraez and still admit the Twins are better with Lopez in the rotation  and Julien at 2B...with Lee coming up right behind him.

2] I'll argue the Lopez replaces Berrios only to the degree it wasn't the following season, but the season after. I do wonder about the Lopez extension vs the Berrios extension from the Jays. Did Berrios actually ask the Twins for 7yrs? If so, I more understand the trade. If not, perhaps the Twins could have had both? Never been a big SWR fan, though I've made excuses for him due to his promotions, youth, the Olympic season, etc. And he almost made me a believer after 2022. The resurance of Martin really makes this work...one year delayed...but I still have wonder if maybe they could have had both.

3] Your Garver vs Jeffers example is apt, but again, a year delayed, somewhat. It's also a bit incomplete. Due to injuries, Jeffers wasn't ready to replace Garver immediately, though he has now. And a quality catcher replacing a now DH is a win. But the Garver trade also set off a chain of events that ultimately brought Correa to the Twins. Ultimately, a double win? Maybe even a double plus win as it lead to bringing in Vazquez as a really good catching alternate with Jeffers, even with a down offensive season?

4] I'm going to object to Graterol vs Duran due to timing, as well as return. This only makes you look smarter, LOL. Graterol MIGHT have turned in to a great closer for the Twins. Instead, they got a Cy Young runner up SP in Maeda for 2020. And then they got another really solid year from Maeda in 2023 after some initial hiccups. Meanwhile, Graterol was solid, but not great, until 2023. So the Twins got Maeda AND developed Duran in to a premium closer the last 2yrs. 

You are correct that whether it was immediate, or a year later, the current FO has indeed replaced what they gave away to improve the roster. And I know there will be discussions about the Mahle trade and the J Lopez trades. BUT, they were mid season tries involving prospects and NOT "replacing" current rostered Twins. An entirely different discussion.

The debate now is, can they do it again? Can they pull a rabbit out of the hat for a 4th time to add a quality SP without damaging the 40 man, OR, damaging the very top of the top 10 of the prospect list?

[DocBauer]

2 hours ago, ashbury said:

Needs two l's.  😄

HUGE tip of my many Twins and milb caps to Nick for this word choice and for ashbury for a spell correction! 

LOL!

I'm a bit of writer and poet with a wonderful vocabulary that even surprises others at times. But I've NEVER heard this word before! I even had to look it up. WONDERFUL! THANK YOU!

I'm going to have to remember this one!

Come on Nick, tell the truth, did you look this one up in a thesaurus? Or did you just learn it over time the way some of writers/poets/English majors just know words like lithe and myriad? 😀

[Litdus]

I would say the Jose Berrios replacement was Sonny Gray, which you could also say went well.

[Fatbat]

36 minutes ago, DocBauer said:

Well, this OP sort of went sideways didn't it? LOL.

But back to Nick's OP:

1] It's OK to love, appreciate, and miss Arraez and still admit the Twins are better with Lopez in the rotation  and Julien at 2B...with Lee coming up right behind him.

2] I'll argue the Lopez replaces Berrios only to the degree it wasn't the following season, but the season after. I do wonder about the Lopez extension vs the Berrios extension from the Jays. Did Berrios actually ask the Twins for 7yrs? If so, I more understand the trade. If not, perhaps the Twins could have had both? Never been a big SWR fan, though I've made excuses for him due to his promotions, youth, the Olympic season, etc. And he almost made me a believer after 2022. The resurance of Martin really makes this work...one year delayed...but I still have wonder if maybe they could have had both.

3] Your Garver vs Jeffers example is apt, but again, a year delayed, somewhat. It's also a bit incomplete. Due to injuries, Jeffers wasn't ready to replace Garver immediately, though he has now. And a quality catcher replacing a now DH is a win. But the Garver trade also set off a chain of events that ultimately brought Correa to the Twins. Ultimately, a double win? Maybe even a double plus win as it lead to bringing in Vazquez as a really good catching alternate with Jeffers, even with a down offensive season?

4] I'm going to object to Graterol vs Duran due to timing, as well as return. This only makes you look smarter, LOL. Graterol MIGHT have turned in to a great closer for the Twins. Instead, they got a Cy Young runner up SP in Maeda for 2020. And then they got another really solid year from Maeda in 2023 after some initial hiccups. Meanwhile, Graterol was solid, but not great, until 2023. So the Twins got Maeda AND developed Duran in to a premium closer the last 2yrs. 

You are correct that whether it was immediate, or a year later, the current FO has indeed replaced what they gave away to improve the roster. And I know there will be discussions about the Mahle trade and the J Lopez trades. BUT, they were mid season tries involving prospects and NOT "replacing" current rostered Twins. An entirely different discussion.

The debate now is, can they do it again? Can they pull a rabbit out of the hat for a 4th time to add a quality SP without damaging the 40 man, OR, damaging the very top of the top 10 of the prospect list?

Agreed.

It looks like the FO is going all in on internal development options and bounce back players in ‘24. It may be very prudent in the short term to put the best roster on the field. It’s been a full 6 years of developing their guys and they seem very attached to certain guys. Its just fine if they overvalue their current roster as long as the players respond with the expected production.

[DocBauer]

I'm not going to quote anyone at this point. Just going to state my opinion.

Correa is one of the best SS I've ever seen in my 58yrs. He's a wonderful athlete who lacks speed, but has a good "suddenness" when it comes to quickness. That's an overall athletic ability as well as baseball intelligence. He has soft hands, quick motions, and one of the best arms I've ever seen. And he's also one of the smartest ballplayers I've ever been witnessed to.

Time forgets the day, but he went to the mound in 2022  with Bundy on the hill. HE, not a coach, told him what to throw. He did and the Twins got out of the inning and won the game.

He knows the milb system as much as any of us. He's fully invested in the Twins. 

Smalley was a very good, maybe great SS defensively, I'm not 100% certain. My 70's and 80's were radio and occasional TV viewings. Gagne remains in my mind as the best defensive SS in semi-recent history. And I'll stand by that even though there were at least a few solid players who filled in, and were at least OK. But Gagne remains THE MAN defensively for 7yrs and 2 WS trophies. 

But Correa is the BEST SS I've ever seen wearing a Twins uniform. He has a career .820 OPS and 124 OPS+ for his career even after a poor 2023 while he battled plantar fasciitis most of the season.

Has anyone ever had PF? I have. And it took me 2yrs of pain to finally get over it. But Correa was still out there every day playing solid defense. And late in the year, it got better, his offense surged. 

He was great in a bad 2022 season. He fought through pain in 2023 to contribute and finish strong. And he's a potential HOF player not even turning 30yo yet.

Yep, let's go ahead and bash Correa for being a good guy, teammate, HOF SS and tremendous producer. Because in 2 seasons, one being an injury bug to the team that a MASH episode would have a hard time dealing with, and the other being Correa playing through a very painful injury, he's just worth it. While we're at it, let us visit Mauer, one of the best Twins and HOF catchers EVER and just bash him some more because he didn't produce 25 HR ever season!

I'm very sorry....but I'm ill right now. And I'm being emotional as a result. Sorry. My apologies.  Sincerely. But all I see is negativity when there is a bunch of positivity for 2024 and beyond. 

And with that, I'm going to rest my head on a pillow after some supper and fantasize on a Twins 2024 season that has a roster that isn't set yet, but could be great, being optimistic and ignoring negative views that could be turned around tomorrow...or not.

[Nashvilletwin]

The gist of Nick’s post was about replacing quality players.  This year the player we would most like to replace is Gray.

We are not trading Correa - for several reasons.  However, fact of the matter is that the Twins for whatever reason (TV revs, Pohlad penury, etc.) are capital constrained.  We signed Correa to a huge deal north of $30MM per year. It’s been suggested in the thread that Correa is a “superstar” SS.  I disagree.  I think Correa is an incredibly gifted ballplayer.  But based on his performance, both in the field and at the plate, I just don’t see him as a “superstar” worthy of $30MM.  I dare say there isn’t much press about what a screaming deal we have with Correa.  There just isn’t. The marketplace speaks and there probably isn’t a single TDer who believes another team would sign Correa to the same deal now.

It’s also been suggested that Lee is a marginal MLB SS prospect.  I again disagree. He’s a consensus top 20 prospect.  Will he ever be as gifted in the field or at the plate as Correa has been or might be in the future?  We don’t know that now - no matter what people write.  Remember the scene from Moneyball when Billy Beane tells David Justice that the A’s are paying him for the ballplayer he is today - not what he was. We need to compare five years of Correa AT HIS COST to five years of Lee AT HIS COST. Is there $145MM of added value to the capital constrained Twins from Correa over Lee?  

There absolutely is a decent probability that within a couple of years Lee is a better producer in the field and at the plate than Correa - for 1/30th the cost.   

So, if our payroll is fixed would you rather have a) 5 more years of Correa plus no replacement for Gray; b) Correa plus a controllable cheap projectable starter (remember our payroll is fixed) acquired by trading Lee; or c) Farmer and Lee at SS this season plus a top reliable FA pitcher (Snell?).  For the future of this team, I’d take c first.  And for my fellow TDers who don’t think there is much difference between a top tier free agent starter and Louie Varland (whom I love btw), then the thinking must be there is no reason to replace Gray anyway - we already have his replacement in Varland.

i wish things were different and that our favorite team had unlimited payroll like the Dodgers, Yankees and Mets. But we don’t. That’s the reality. And given that reality, the question of production per dollar is paramount to how our roster is constructed. I think most of our fellow TDers understand that.  So my point about Correa was simply to compare different roster construction possibilities given very definitive payroll constraints.  But it’s moot - he’s not going anywhere.  

[tony&rodney]

58 minutes ago, Nashvilletwin said:

The gist of Nick’s post was about replacing quality players.  This year the player we would most like to replace is Gray.

We are not trading Correa - for several reasons.  However, fact of the matter is that the Twins for whatever reason (TV revs, Pohlad penury, etc.) are capital constrained.  We signed Correa to a huge deal north of $30MM per year. It’s been suggested in the thread that Correa is a “superstar” SS.  I disagree.  I think Correa is an incredibly gifted ballplayer.  But based on his performance, both in the field and at the plate, I just don’t see him as a “superstar” worthy of $30MM.  I dare say there isn’t much press about what a screaming deal we have with Correa.  There just isn’t. The marketplace speaks and there probably isn’t a single TDer who believes another team would sign Correa to the same deal now.

It’s also been suggested that Lee is a marginal MLB SS prospect.  I again disagree. He’s a consensus top 20 prospect.  Will he ever be as gifted in the field or at the plate as Correa has been or might be in the future?  We don’t know that now - no matter what people write.  Remember the scene from Moneyball when Billy Beane tells David Justice that the A’s are paying him for the ballplayer he is today - not what he was. We need to compare five years of Correa AT HIS COST to five years of Lee AT HIS COST. Is there $145MM of added value to the capital constrained Twins from Correa over Lee?  

There absolutely is a decent probability that within a couple of years Lee is a better producer in the field and at the plate than Correa - for 1/30th the cost.   

So, if our payroll is fixed would you rather have a) 5 more years of Correa plus no replacement for Gray; b) Correa plus a controllable cheap projectable starter (remember our payroll is fixed) acquired by trading Lee; or c) Farmer and Lee at SS this season plus a top reliable FA pitcher (Snell?).  For the future of this team, I’d take c first.  And for my fellow TDers who don’t think there is much difference between a top tier free agent starter and Louie Varland (whom I love btw), then the thinking must be there is no reason to replace Gray anyway - we already have his replacement in Varland.

i wish things were different and that our favorite team had unlimited payroll like the Dodgers, Yankees and Mets. But we don’t. That’s the reality. And given that reality, the question of production per dollar is paramount to how our roster is constructed. I think most of our fellow TDers understand that.  So my point about Correa was simply to compare different roster construction possibilities given very definitive payroll constraints.  But it’s moot - he’s not going anywhere.  

I am confused why there is a conversation about Correa's contract and whether or not to trade him. He has a no trade deal. The contract has been in force for a year and has five years left before options are considered. It is in the past and there is nothing to be done about it. The Correa deal is part of how the Pohlad's have put the team together. The Pohlads  signed Joe Mauer to a contract once upon a time and made a ton of money off of that deal. Looking backwards is rather pointless. Right now, it appears the Twins are being very cautious given the collapse of their media monies. Despite many people suggesting that it should not be a big deal and that something else will replace it, the Pohlad's have determined otherwise and are tightening up the roster budget at this time. Again, it just is the way it is. Replaying events from the past doesn't change them.

If you feel the Twins need a pitcher now, make a realistic suggestion for a means of acquiring that guy. The contracts to question are the ones that have not been finished yet. For example, I believe it is not a good time, in consideration of the financial uncertainties right now, for the Twins to sign any large long term contracts. Any significant trades will need to come at the expense of losing one or more of our favored young players. Perhaps the time to trade is not now if the team and/or fans are unwilling to lose a major guy(s).

[Riverbrian]

8 hours ago, Nashvilletwin said:

The gist of Nick’s post was about replacing quality players.  This year the player we would most like to replace is Gray.

We are not trading Correa - for several reasons.  However, fact of the matter is that the Twins for whatever reason (TV revs, Pohlad penury, etc.) are capital constrained.  We signed Correa to a huge deal north of $30MM per year. It’s been suggested in the thread that Correa is a “superstar” SS.  I disagree.  I think Correa is an incredibly gifted ballplayer.  But based on his performance, both in the field and at the plate, I just don’t see him as a “superstar” worthy of $30MM.  I dare say there isn’t much press about what a screaming deal we have with Correa.  There just isn’t. The marketplace speaks and there probably isn’t a single TDer who believes another team would sign Correa to the same deal now.

It’s also been suggested that Lee is a marginal MLB SS prospect.  I again disagree. He’s a consensus top 20 prospect.  Will he ever be as gifted in the field or at the plate as Correa has been or might be in the future?  We don’t know that now - no matter what people write.  Remember the scene from Moneyball when Billy Beane tells David Justice that the A’s are paying him for the ballplayer he is today - not what he was. We need to compare five years of Correa AT HIS COST to five years of Lee AT HIS COST. Is there $145MM of added value to the capital constrained Twins from Correa over Lee?  

There absolutely is a decent probability that within a couple of years Lee is a better producer in the field and at the plate than Correa - for 1/30th the cost.   

So, if our payroll is fixed would you rather have a) 5 more years of Correa plus no replacement for Gray; b) Correa plus a controllable cheap projectable starter (remember our payroll is fixed) acquired by trading Lee; or c) Farmer and Lee at SS this season plus a top reliable FA pitcher (Snell?).  For the future of this team, I’d take c first.  And for my fellow TDers who don’t think there is much difference between a top tier free agent starter and Louie Varland (whom I love btw), then the thinking must be there is no reason to replace Gray anyway - we already have his replacement in Varland.

i wish things were different and that our favorite team had unlimited payroll like the Dodgers, Yankees and Mets. But we don’t. That’s the reality. And given that reality, the question of production per dollar is paramount to how our roster is constructed. I think most of our fellow TDers understand that.  So my point about Correa was simply to compare different roster construction possibilities given very definitive payroll constraints.  But it’s moot - he’s not going anywhere.  

You simply won't find "production per dollar" in the free agent market. The simple reality of having to out bid others makes "production per dollar" naturally impossible. 

If production per dollar is paramount? The Twins should not be shopping in the free agent market at all. 

 

[Riverbrian]

19 hours ago, twinzcynic said:

I would agree mostly with this article; however, I believe bWAR is a slightly better measure than fWAR, and the difference in bWAR between Arraez and Julien (who I actually like) is a bit more pronounced (4.9 WAR to 2.6 WAR).

How can a measurement have a pronounced difference? 

[AlGoreRythm]

21 hours ago, Nashvilletwin said:

Yes, I would trade Correa if possible.  But that probably won’t be advisable nor feasible until next season based on his performance in ‘24.

My point is that in this revenue environment, the Twins have to be all about value produced per dollar spent.  Your points about Correa’s arm and glove are noted (although I’m not sure the actually data backs up your claims as much as you seem to imply)

But it very well could be that in 2025 an infield of Lewis at 3rd, Noah Miller (minor league gold glove at SS - which is saying a lot), and Lee at 2B - all on league minimum - is superior to keeping Correa at SS spending $30MM+ for him. That $30MM is HUGE for the Twins and could be applied in a much more efficient way instead of on a little above average fielding but middling hitting shortstop who is possibly close to being replaceable at a 1/30th the cost.

For the Twins to maximize their ability to truly contend every year (i.e. not just go all in one season), it’s all about value produced per dollar spent.  You must see that.

You must see that a no trade clause and the idea of start power make your argument to trade Correa completely moot...

[AlGoreRythm]

11 hours ago, Nashvilletwin said:

The gist of Nick’s post was about replacing quality players.  This year the player we would most like to replace is Gray.

We are not trading Correa - for several reasons.  However, fact of the matter is that the Twins for whatever reason (TV revs, Pohlad penury, etc.) are capital constrained.  We signed Correa to a huge deal north of $30MM per year. It’s been suggested in the thread that Correa is a “superstar” SS.  I disagree.  I think Correa is an incredibly gifted ballplayer.  But based on his performance, both in the field and at the plate, I just don’t see him as a “superstar” worthy of $30MM.  I dare say there isn’t much press about what a screaming deal we have with Correa.  There just isn’t. The marketplace speaks and there probably isn’t a single TDer who believes another team would sign Correa to the same deal now.

It’s also been suggested that Lee is a marginal MLB SS prospect.  I again disagree. He’s a consensus top 20 prospect.  Will he ever be as gifted in the field or at the plate as Correa has been or might be in the future?  We don’t know that now - no matter what people write.  Remember the scene from Moneyball when Billy Beane tells David Justice that the A’s are paying him for the ballplayer he is today - not what he was. We need to compare five years of Correa AT HIS COST to five years of Lee AT HIS COST. Is there $145MM of added value to the capital constrained Twins from Correa over Lee?  

There absolutely is a decent probability that within a couple of years Lee is a better producer in the field and at the plate than Correa - for 1/30th the cost.   

So, if our payroll is fixed would you rather have a) 5 more years of Correa plus no replacement for Gray; b) Correa plus a controllable cheap projectable starter (remember our payroll is fixed) acquired by trading Lee; or c) Farmer and Lee at SS this season plus a top reliable FA pitcher (Snell?).  For the future of this team, I’d take c first.  And for my fellow TDers who don’t think there is much difference between a top tier free agent starter and Louie Varland (whom I love btw), then the thinking must be there is no reason to replace Gray anyway - we already have his replacement in Varland.

i wish things were different and that our favorite team had unlimited payroll like the Dodgers, Yankees and Mets. But we don’t. That’s the reality. And given that reality, the question of production per dollar is paramount to how our roster is constructed. I think most of our fellow TDers understand that.  So my point about Correa was simply to compare different roster construction possibilities given very definitive payroll constraints.  But it’s moot - he’s not going anywhere.  

You say there's a "decent probability" Lee out-produces Correa over the next 5 seasons.

What is "decent probability" in your mind? 5% chance? 50% chance?

You're stuck on this idea that the value proposition for Lee is obviously better without Lee having played a single major league inning. So what is the probability you're right and what's the probability you're wrong?

From my perspective there's a far greater probability your assertion has less than 50% chance of working out the way you expect.

[Major League Ready]

3 hours ago, Riverbrian said:

You simply won't find "production per dollar" in the free agent market. The simple reality of having to out bid others makes "production per dollar" naturally impossible. 

If production per dollar is paramount? The Twins should not be shopping in the free agent market at all. 

 

The one thing we can say about roster construction that is absolutely certain.  The Minnesota Twins have to get twice the production per dollar from their roster as the top revenue teams.  That does not mean free agents can’t contribute to building a roster.  Oddly enough, the more successful they are at developing low cost players, the more they can spend on free agents.  However, finding players with higher production per dollar is still going to be paramount to success.  Zach Eflin is a great example from last year.  His AAV is 13.33M and they got 4.8 WAR from him.  That’s 2.78M/WAR.  Charlie Mortenson was a great example back when the Rays signed him.  He had a relatively modest AAV and did not have the risk associated with a long-term contract.

The reality is that teams like the Twins very rarely sign a player like Correa because spending that high of a percentage on one player makes it very difficult to construct a complete team.  If we examine the construction of successful low and mid revenue teams, we will find a handful of free agents that contributed but the overall WAR from free agents or established players acquired in trade totally 15-20%.  The other 80% comes from drafted players or players acquired before becoming established at the MLB level.  Some of them were MLB players but not established.  This is not theoretical.  This is history.

The takeaway is that the Twins absolutely cannot be successful without being far more productive per dollar spent than the top revenue teams.  So, why are we angry when they won't follow a model that can't possibly be successful?
 

[Major League Ready]

22 hours ago, twinzcynic said:

I would agree mostly with this article; however, I believe bWAR is a slightly better measure than fWAR, and the difference in bWAR between Arraez and Julien (who I actually like) is a bit more pronounced (4.9 WAR to 2.6 WAR).

I might be missing something here but I think you are looking at a bWAR metric for batting only.  fWAR considers defense and when defense is considered Arraez and Julien had about equal WAR.  If Julien's defensive continues to improve, that gap between the two metrics will continue to widen unless Arraez also improves defensively.