Which Mariners Starting Pitcher Could the Twins Acquire in Trade?

[Cody Christie]

The Twins and Mariners are each in the midst of a winning window, and they have the potential to match up in trades that help both rosters. What are each team’s needs, and what deals between them could make sense?

Image courtesy of © Gregory Fisher-USA TODAY Sports

After making the playoffs for the first time since 2001, the Mariners entered 2023 with high expectations. Alas, Seattle lost six of their final 10 games and finished one game behind Toronto for the final Wild Card spot. It was a disappointing end for a team that many considered ascendent, with young stars like Julio Rodriguez and George Kirby. As with any offseason, the Mariners will try to find ways to supplement their roster, but they face financial uncertainty. 

Like Minnesota, Seattle is dealing with their own fallout from the nationwide collapse of regional sports networks. Last season, the Mariners’ payroll sat around $140 million, and the front office hopes to increase that total for 2024. Seattle now owns all of ROOT Sports Northwest, their regional sports network, and the network was attached to a price increase with the largest cable distributor in the Mariners’ region.

Seattle has already been active on the trade market, dealing away pieces with contracts that might not fit their current roster. In November, the Mariners traded Eugenio Suarez ($11.3 million) to Arizona for Carlos Vargas and Seby Zavala, who are not yet arbitration eligible. At the Winter Meetings, they packaged Jarred Kelenic ($750,000), Marco Gonzalez ($12.25 million), and Evan White ($7 million) for two other cheap, cost-controlled players, Jackson Kowar and Cole Phillips. It’s clear that Seattle needs to find ways to improve, and cutting these salaries was only the first step.

Seattle’s most significant needs are in the lineup, and they have room to add righties and lefties. After the Kelenic trade, president of baseball operations Jerry Dipoto told reporters that the club wanted to add two or three bats. Still, they are reluctant to deal away starting pitching, one of baseball’s most valuable commodities. Potential trade chips include Logan Gilbert, George Kirby, Bryce Miller, or Bryan Woo. So, what are some potential trades between these two clubs? All trade values are from Baseball Trade Values, based on the concept of surplus value (number in parentheses) above what the player is being paid and the years of team control. 

Potential Trade 1
Twins Receive: Bryan Woo (28.2)
Mariners Receive: Max Kepler (8.3), Matt Wallner (23.1)
Woo made his big-league debut last season and posted a 4.21 ERA with a 1.21 WHIP across 16 starts. In 87 2/3 innings, he had a 93-to-31 strikeout-to-walk ratio, but he allowed 13 home runs (1.3 HR/9). Seattle had Woo jump from Double A to the big leagues after he dominated that level with a 2.05 ERA, a 0.89 WHIP, and 12.1 K/9. Wallner and Kepler have similar skill sets, but the Mariners want to upgrade their offense and both would be better than their incumbents. Kepler’s 121 OPS+ last season would have ranked third on the Mariners, behind J.P. Crawford and Rodríguez. Wallner only got 254 plate appearances in the big leagues, but his 139 OPS+ would have been eight points higher than Rodríguez's. 

Potential Trade 2
Mariners Receive: Jorge Polanco (9.4), Emmanuel Rodriguez (17.1)
Twins Receive: Bryce Miller (25.9)
Miller, like Woo, debuted in 2023. In 25 games, he had a 4.32 ERA with a 1.14 WHIP and 8.2 K/9. His 3.98 FIP was lower than his ERA, so there may be room for statistical (as well as actual) improvement. For Seattle, Polanco and Rodríguez might offer the best combination of present and future value. Polanco is under team control for two more seasons and has some defensive flexibility to fit into the Mariners lineup. Rodríguez has one of the highest ceilings of any prospect in the Twins organization and is projected to spend next season at Double A. Last season, Rodríguez posted an .863 OPS with 38 extra-base hits in 99 games. 

Potential Trade 3
Mariners Receive: Edouard Julien (34.5), Brooks Lee (33.5)
Twins Receive: Logan Gilbert (65.9)
The Twins might want to trade for a pitcher with a more established track record than the less-experienced Woo or Miller. Gilbert has pitched nearly 500 innings at the big-league level and is in his first year of arbitration eligibility as a Super 2 player. In 2023, he tossed 190 2/3 innings with a 3.73 ERA, a 1.08 WHIP, and 8.9 K/9. Julien and Lee would be a tough combo to lose at this early juncture in their careers, but frontline starting pitching comes at a high price. Julien posted a 130 OPS+ in 109 games last season, while Lee combined for an .808 OPS between Double and Triple A. 

Which trade is the best fit for both teams? Which starting pitcher is the right one for the Twins? Leave a COMMENT and start the discussion.

View full article

[arby58]

I don't like trade one, because the OF is not where the Twins have much surplus. With both Wallner and Kepler gone, who plays on the corners? It starts looking like a black hole, offensively, and would require a full bounce back from Buxton and Larnach actually hitting for an entire MLB season. Seems unlikely.

Number two probably works for both teams, IF the Twins believe Miller is for real.

Number three is hard to swallow - probably for both teams. At least in this deal, you can see the Twins handling the infield (unlike the outfield in number one), as Polanco for two years at 2B (IF healthy) isn't a big worry, and maybe Severino becomes the heir apparent. Still, Julien and Lee might both be All Stars someday - would rather give up one and not both. Maybe keep one and throw in Rodriguez, Polanco, and Larnach.

[Karbo]

In trade #1, who would play OF for the Twins?

Trade #2 seems a bit to much losing Rodriguez, but doable if Sea throws in a prospect maybe?

Trade #3 I just don't see it happening, Not 2 top prospects. Unless they can extend Gilbert out another to cover his 1st few FA years.

[old nurse]

The article outlines Seattle moving players to shed salary. Why would they take back salary.  Rodriguez and Lee would also need filler prospects. Starting pitching at the front of the rotation is still more expensive than BTV thinks.. When the trading was done, the Reds had 3 mlb players from Mahle. I think people think Gilbert may be bettter than Mahle and around longer 

[Cory Engelhardt]

Dumb question I’ve been mulling; if a team were to take on Robbie Ray’s salary (3 years, 23 million each year, but an opt out after 2024, and he is coming back from Tommy John so probably not back until May or June) would that entice them more to move someone like Miller or Woo?

I mean, the twins have payroll concerns of their own, so I don’t know if they would even want to take on that money. 
 

Just a thought

[rico7961]

The way it sounds from stories all over the internet is Seattle will not trade any of its “controllable” starting pitching unless it’s a massive overpay and plan on signing FA’s to supply “bats” on their roster.

So good luck trying to deal with them.

[SteveLV]

Seattle is unlikely to trade any of their young pitchers.  They are in the same boat as the Twins, financially.  We would have to empty the farm system for a pitcher like Gilbert.

If we are going to absorb the salary of an injured pitcher, I would prefer Alcantara to Ray.  Cy Young, younger, and better stuff prior to TJS.  Just seems unlikely the Twins would take on either salary unless several existing contracts are going out the door in the same, or separate, trades.  Vasquez as part of trade to Marlins might work?

I like getting Luzardo and Alacantara from the Marlins with younger players/prospects/Vasquez, and Polanco to the Blue Jays for prospects, preferably LHP prospects.

[Otaknam]

Julien and Lee, young ML ready infielders with potential impact bats and high ceilings, for a once a week starter? No thanks! Trade 2 is more palatable, though ERod looks like he could be a five tool player potentially ready for a call up by the end of the year, or next year at the latest. 

[Blyleven2011]

Rumor has it seattle traded away players that did not put the ball in play enough  , they struck out  ...

I don't think we have any major league players seattle would want because our boom or bust lineup  set a new strikeout record  in 2023  ...

Sure I would like Gilbert or Kirby but it will definitely be an overpay to get one of them ...

For reference  , remember what seattle gave up to get Castillo from the Reds  , Twins would have to do the same , and we are not going to deplete our prospects as a mid market team ...

[Finlander]

Seattle will just pick up some FA bats? Easier said than done, more expensive and more competition to sign those bats. And Seattle's pitching-friendly park may not be an appealing destination to a FA bat. Mariners are posturing. They'd love to pick up some good cheap bats in a trade, and they would move a pitcher to do so.

Twins have a logjam in the infield and can afford to thin that out a bit. I've seen the idea (not dumb at all) of including Ray in a deal as relief for Seattle and to lower the MN prospect capital loss. Let's go further. Could we afford to target Luis Castillo in a deal? What might that cost?

[LewFordLives]

What about Emerson Hancock? True, he will not replace Sonny Gray, but it would give the Twins some depth with a young controllable arm. Maybe Polanco for Hancock and a lower tier prospect? 

[strumdatjag]

In order to stop a few, very annoying fans, this team cannot have any player named “Woo”, “Wu”, “Weiu” ….   Over the past decade, especially in later innings, some bored fans have become “Woo-birds”.   The Ric Flair style “Wooooooo” chants echo annoyingly throughout the ballpark.  The addition of a player with this phonetic sound in his name will encourage exponentially more “Woooooo” chants - taking that already negative part of the fan experience from annoying to excruciating !!!

[LewFordLives]

26 minutes ago, Finlander said:

 Could we afford to target Luis Castillo in a deal? What might that cost?

The issue with Castillo is that he's still owed as much as $125 million. The Twins wouldn't go there for Sonny Gray, I doubt they would open the safe for Castillo. The Mariners would have to contribute $$ to make it doable.

[Ricky Vaughn]

Rumor has it the Twins shut off their phone and internet to save money, and making trades by mail is to slow. Therefor I don't see them making any trades.

[Riverbrian]

These articles are fun... However...

Sometimes you have to look at the other teams roster and ask what they need and also ask yourself if they are a contending team or rebuilding. 

In the case of Seattle... I'd say they are contending team with a fantastic pitching staff that is trying to transform the offense on the fly. The Mariners offense was 2nd in K's behind our Twins last year.

They have cleared out Hernandez, Saurez, Kelenic. All 3 of them had strikeout rates higher than 30%.

They are rumored to be after Rhys Hoskins who strikes out less, 

If they are a contending team... I think they are... prospects won't be of much interest to them. They'd be more likely to give up prospects for major league hitters. 

Look at the Mariners current roster. They are about 4 bats short at the MLB level. The OF besides J-Rod is a bunch of... who are these guys? 

You'd think that Kepler and Polanco would be of high interest to them and I'd guess that they are talking to a lot of teams in search of bats.  

Dipoto is fearless when it comes to trades and changing a roster on the fly because he has done it before.  

 

 

 

[MGX]

I know we use BTV as a reference because it's what's available. The values do seem inaccurate as often as not. With that said these two teams seem to line up well.

Trade #1 is not a good fit for the Twins - trading our two starting corner OF's would leave us with holes in terms of productivity that will be very difficult to fill.

Trade #2 is the best fit the M's can use Polanco to help their team now & the potential of having E-Rod & J-Rod in the OF together I imagine would be enticing for them. How much do the Twins value E-Rod will determine if it works the Twins.

Trade #3 while I like Gilbert I hope the Twins won't consider trading Julien & Lee for one pitcher. You can't count on pitchers being healthy so trading away that much talent for a pitcher is a huge risk IMO. 

I'd prefer the FA route for the Twins. We have a good young core right now & I hope they keep them together so we can see what they develop into. I like the following...

1 mid level SP - Someone like - Montas or Clevinger

1-2 BP arms - J. Hicks & R. Stephenson would be my preference, but there are other options

1 OF - Taylor, Kiermaier or Bader

1 - 1B - Garver might be a good fit here - good offensive player throughout his career can 1B & gives us a 3rd C.

These should all be reasonably priced options & would fill in our most pressing needs without tapping into our young core.  

[tony&rodney]

21 minutes ago, MGX said:

I know we use BTV as a reference because it's what's available. The values do seem inaccurate as often as not. With that said theses two teams seem to line up well.

BTV has shifted values for some players at least three times since the season ended, some by quite a bit. Emm-Rod could slot into a prospect list at #25 or better when all of the new lists come out, which might push his value on BTV into the 40s or 50s. Those lists are quite fluid. Additionally, while there are close values on many trades, we can see vast differences in trades that include major names. Look only to the Lopez-Arraez, Soto, or Glasnow trades to witness the wild discrepancies (according to BTV) in some transactions. 

Seattle cannot compete with the team they currently have rostered, the Twins can. Knowing this, the Twins need to proceed with the knowledge that other teams need their players much more than the Twins need to complete a deal. Both Polanco and Kepler have tremendous value in the short term. I would not agree to any of the trades offered here. Seattle would jump at #1 and #3. I'm not sure Seattle wants a prospect a couple of years away, especially one who has struck out at high rates (#2), and I'm not feeling as much love for Miller (or Woo) as some others. I'll take Varland. 

The Twins did not show any interest in Gurriel Jr that I'm aware of and I'm not sure that Falvey is working hard to sign Rhys Hoskins. These were two players I think would benefit the Twins. While it isn't unusual for the Twins to wait until later (Jan.-April) to complete their team, the number of good players has dwindled to high-priced free agents and questionable risks. Trades are going to be difficult to complete with Seattle. Perhaps Miami can be a repeat partner for Falvey. 

[saviking]

I don't like any of the trades ..

[Major League Ready]

1 hour ago, Riverbrian said:

These articles are fun... However...

Sometimes you have to look at the other teams roster and ask what they need and also ask yourself if they are a contending team or rebuilding. 

In the case of Seattle... I'd say they are contending team with a fantastic pitching staff that is trying to transform the offense on the fly. The Mariners offense was 2nd in K's behind our Twins last year.

They have cleared out Hernandez, Saurez, Kelenic. All 3 of them had strikeout rates higher than 30%.

They are rumored to be after Rhys Hoskins who strikes out less, 

If they are a contending team... I think they are... prospects won't be of much interest to them. They'd be more likely to give up prospects for major league hitters. 

Look at the Mariners current roster. They are about 4 bats short at the MLB level. The OF besides J-Rod is a bunch of... who are these guys? 

You'd think that Kepler and Polanco would be of high interest to them and I'd guess that they are talking to a lot of teams in search of bats.  

Dipoto is fearless when it comes to trades and changing a roster on the fly because he has done it before.  

 

 

 

You have to believe Seattle wants to hold onto their young pitching.  I noticed they have a lot of prospects in their top 20 that are not projected to reach the majors until 26-27.  Will they try to trade these prospects and hang on to their pitching?  Those assets look pretty good to a rebuilding team.

Trading Ray or Castillo also has to be more appealing to them as well.  Would a team like Baltimore just entering what should be a wide window be interested in Ray?  Castillo has been great but the failure rate for guys this age is also quite high.  See Ray, Rodon, Mahle, etc.  Yet, Castillo is really tempting if Polanco and Kepler were the primary assets back from the Twins.   

[Jim wyllie]

I would amend trade 3 as follows Polanco, Kepler, Rodriguez and larnach for gilbert.

[Riverbrian]

28 minutes ago, Major League Ready said:

You have to believe Seattle wants to hold onto their young pitching.  I noticed they have a lot of prospects in their top 20 that are not projected to reach the majors until 26-27.  Will they try to trade these prospects and hang on to their pitching?  Those assets look pretty good to a rebuilding team.

Trading Ray or Castillo also has to be more appealing to them as well.  Would a team like Baltimore just entering what should be a wide window be interested in Ray?  Castillo has been great but the failure rate for guys this age is also quite high.  See Ray, Rodon, Mahle, etc.  Yet, Castillo is really tempting if Polanco and Kepler were the primary assets back from the Twins.   

I agree 100%

I just posted the same in a different thread. 

If I'm the Mariners.

It's Castillo that I'm shopping.

Any team that can afford his contract would certainly listen. He's only 9 months older than Glasnow so I don't think age is a factor. 

Could the Twins afford that contract? That's the key question. Who can afford that contract? also a key question. 

The list is probably small and whatever teams are on that list. They would have to have some extra major league bats who don't strike out a lot to send the other way. 

The teams that are chasing Yamamoto are probably the teams on the list.  

 

[sweetmusicviola16]

Emanuel Rodriguez for Bryce Miller. No Thank You.

[tony&rodney]

1 hour ago, Major League Ready said:

You have to believe Seattle wants to hold onto their young pitching.  I noticed they have a lot of prospects in their top 20 that are not projected to reach the majors until 26-27.  Will they try to trade these prospects and hang on to their pitching?  Those assets look pretty good to a rebuilding team.

Trading Ray or Castillo also has to be more appealing to them as well.  Would a team like Baltimore just entering what should be a wide window be interested in Ray?  Castillo has been great but the failure rate for guys this age is also quite high.  See Ray, Rodon, Mahle, etc.  Yet, Castillo is really tempting if Polanco and Kepler were the primary assets back from the Twins.   

Robbie Ray is due back after the All Star Game, which makes his salary about $11-12M for 2024 and then he is still due another $50M plus $1M if traded for 2025-2026. Castillo is due $24+M per year for four years plus an option. Both potentially good pitchers. Why would you trade for these guys as opposed to signing Snell or Montgomery as free agents? 

Seattle has to either sign some free agents to fill spots in the outfield and infield or acquire some players via trade. Thus far, the Mariners have been a little skittish about paying bats via free agency, although they could certainly change their past practices. I don't believe teams will be looking to help them out. 

[Cris E]

Seattle is at a point where a couple main parts in the lineup and a couple veteran fill-ins can make them very formidable for a long time.  Their pitching pipeline looks good so if they can crank out a decent offense they should be able to do what MN did last year, and once in the playoffs you never know.

So I shoot for a good pitcher today, but not one that reduces their chances. I offer a veteran that can play now and has some control remaining and I throw in a youngster that will sustain their roster for years to come.  That looks like Woo/Miller for one of Polanco/Kepler plus youth, but we only have like one guy where this works.  So how about something different, maybe Kirilloff and Polanco for one of those pitchers plus a lottery ticket kid?

We've got guys that can take the 1B innings: Miranda will be fighting for time, Larnach looking to stay healthy and prove himself, Farmer still hoping to play regularly, and if Lee forces the issue possibly even Julien despite working himself into an average 2B glove man. The infield is crowded with more coming, so if Kirilloff gets the Mariners excited you have to listen.

[Heiny]

They need hitting and can afford some pitching.  We need pitching and can afford some hitting.  My proposal is Bryce Miller and Emerson Hancock for Matt Walner and Jose Miranda.  This sounds fair and helps both teams.  Both teams are getting multiple years from all players and youth at very modest salaries.  Wallner would be the most painfull for me to give up, but then we fill in with Larnach/or a FA corner OF'er.  Sound reasonable?  If they would prefer Polanco vs. Miranda, that could work but I would like them to throw in a lower minor prospect.

[Major League Ready]

5 hours ago, tony&rodney said:

Robbie Ray is due back after the All Star Game, which makes his salary about $11-12M for 2024 and then he is still due another $50M plus $1M if traded for 2025-2026. Castillo is due $24+M per year for four years plus an option. Both potentially good pitchers. Why would you trade for these guys as opposed to signing Snell or Montgomery as free agents? 

Seattle has to either sign some free agents to fill spots in the outfield and infield or acquire some players via trade. Thus far, the Mariners have been a little skittish about paying bats via free agency, although they could certainly change their past practices. I don't believe teams will be looking to help them out. 

1. Because the big market teams are going to outbid the twins on Snell and Montgomery.  

2. The Mariners might not be willing to part with the young/cost controlled SPs.

3. The players/prospects capital going back will reflect the point you are making and we won't have to give up a premium prospect.  

[nicksaviking]

I think the packages are backwards. Two OF in option one and two IF in option three. Probably need to mix and match those.

As it were, I'd do #1 in a heart beat. The four young Seattle pitchers I like in order are Kirby, Woo, Gilbert, Miller.

[darin617]

Why would Seattle trade away pitchers with so many years of team control left? The deals they could get would be better than the ones they listed. You don't give away pitching.

[tony&rodney]

25 minutes ago, Major League Ready said:

1. Because the big market teams are going to outbid the twins on Snell and Montgomery.  Also, the cost in terms of

2. The Mariners might not be willing to part with the young/cost controlled SPs.

3. The players/prospects capital going back will reflect the point you are making and we won't have to give up a premium prospect.  

I don't disagree with you about the Twins getting outbid, but this is also an indication that the Twins are not going to pay big salaries for pitchers this year. Things may change next year. I will add that we hoped that the Twins would sign a guy this year, but it isn't going to happen.

More and more, I'm not real interested in trading a top prospect/player such as Julien, Lewis, Wallner, Festa, or Lee, much less the key prospects below AAA.

I'm not taking on either of Ray or Castillo. I'm still in on Gilbert or Kirby and fully understand that the Mariners are extremely unlikely to trade them. I am also bullish on Louie Varland which most people seem to disagree with right now. The Twins could use some depth behind Lopez, Ryan, Ober, Varland, and Paddack, for sure. Polanco seems to be the guy to trade as well although I'm still believing in his value. The three guys who are going to be constantly asked about though are still Lewis, Lee, and Julien. There are going to be many teams contacting the Mariners and Marlins and both of these teams will be calling the Twins too.

If the Twins did trade Polanco for a player earning a minimum salary, I would hope there is room to add a Justin Turner or Rhys Hoskins in the budget.

[GM-WannaB]

I think the best scenario would be a Julien for Woo trade. This gives the Twins the pitcher depth they are looking for this year with possible upside over the next 5 years. Polanco doesn't need to be traded and can bridge the gap for Lee's arrival. If you dig into juliens numbers, the desire for Seattle to find a 2nd basemen, the "obvious" over pay of Julien for Woo and the ability to retain our veteran players it just makes sense. This keeps us competitive for the current playoff push we are shooting for.