The Twins Face Tough Decisions To Make Impactful Trades

[Cody Christie]

The Twins saw a trio of young players establish themselves at the big-league level in 2023. Would the front office consider trading a young player to fix holes at other parts of the roster?

Image courtesy of Matt Krohn-USA TODAY Sports

The Twins must be creative this winter to fill some of the club’s different needs. Minnesota needs a playoff-caliber starter to replace Sonny Gray in the rotation and a replacement for Michael A. Taylor in center field. Adding a right-handed bench bat and upgrading the bullpen would be nice, but those may be luxuries the team can’t afford while cutting payroll. It’s a tough spot for the front office, but they have previously shown the ability to be creative. 

Many trade rumors this winter have swirled around the club, including shopping veteran players with higher contracts, like Kyle Farmer, Christian Vazquez, and Jorge Polanco. Unfortunately, trade value for those player types will bring back a minimal return. Instead, the front office can look to trade some of their young, established MLB players to capitalize on their value. It will likely take a combination of moves to free up payroll and add impact players at positions of need.

Here is a look at three young players the Twins might consider including in trades this winter. Each player’s surplus trade value is from Baseball Trade Values.

Edouard Julien, 2B
Surplus Trade Value: $35.3 million

Julien has been an intriguing prospect over the last two seasons, and fans saw the value he provides at the plate. In 109 games, he hit .263/.381/.459 (.839) with 16 doubles and 16 home runs. His defense made strides at second base, but he’s still considered a below-average defender.

Minnesota traded Luis Arraez last winter, when it was clear the club wasn’t confident in his ability to play second base. Julien might be in a similar position, and he has more years of team control than Arraez did last winter. If Polanco was traded, the assumption was that Julien would take over the second base duties. If Julien was also dealt, the Twins have other young options who might be ready to step into the role, including Austin Martin and Brooks Lee.

Matt Wallner, OF
Surplus Trade Value: $23.3 million 

Like Julien, Wallner is supposed to be the heir apparent at a position occupied by a current veteran. If the Twins trade Kepler, Wallner can slide over to right field and be part of the team’s line-up for most of the next decade. In 2023, Wallner hit .249/.370/.507(.877) with 11 doubles and 14 home runs across 76 games. The Twins can also look to include Wallner in a trade because his value might never be higher.

Wallner’s offensive profile will come with many strikeouts and inconsistent contact. Other corner outfield options include Trevor Larnach, Nick Gordon, and Austin Martin. Wallner has been a great story as a Minnesota native, but the timing might be suitable for the Twins to maximize his value on the trade market. 

Emmanuel Rodriguez, OF
Surplus Trade Value: $19.7 million

The Twins might consider other top prospects untouchable, like Lee and Walker Jenkins. Rodriguez is the team’s other consensus top-100 prospect, which can make other teams value his potential upside. Rodriguez was added to the team’s 40-man roster this winter and is projected to spend next season at Double-A. It's interesting to consider that Baseball Trade Values believes Rodriguez has much lower value than the other more established players, but that might be reflection of his extreme high-risk/high-reward profile.

There are no indications that the Twins want to part with Rodriguez, but the organization will likely need to trade multiple prospects to acquire a frontline starting pitcher. Minnesota’s winning window is open right now, which might force the front office to be aggressive. 

Minnesota obviously has other highly valued players at or close to the big league, but some of those options might be untouchable in the eyes of the Twins. Will the front office consider trading any of the players mentioned above? Do you agree with the trade values? Leave a COMMENT and start the discussion.

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[Patzky]

If management believes the Twins can compete for the division title with the current roster plus a bit of creative genius, they won't sacrifice a Julien or Rodriguez. A Wallner, Polanco, or Kepler trade, while upsetting to the fan base, might indicate that management doesn't think the team will be competitive enough to claim the division. The Tiggers aren't sitting.. personally I'd love to see a Kepler or Polanco to Seattle trade for a Kirby type, and if Wallner is needed to make it go, do so. They can always use saved monies if they dump Kepler and Polanco to resign Taylor and or Farmer. 

[Karbo]

I think it would take a heck of return if any of those mentioned above are traded.

[LewFordLives]

I think this article nicely sums up the situation. I just have two quick comments...

1. I would not consider Brooks Lee untouchable. If the season started today, the Twins would not have a spot for him in the infield, and he will be someone that trade partners would want.

2. I'm sure this has been discussed to death on other threads, but why not have Julien play first, like they did with Arraez? It would hurt to lose his OBP.

[CoasterProductions]

26 minutes ago, LewFordLives said:

I would not consider Brooks Lee untouchable. If the season started today, the Twins would not have a spot

I think the reason Lee is untouchable is because of when Polanco leaves. Either after this season or in a trade he would take over at second.

[Drtwins]

100% agree with the article. Trading away Farmer, Vazquez, Polanco, or Kepler would bring nothing of equivalent value to this year’s team. As the Twins still appear to have excess infield talent, Julien would be the player to move imo. He is young, had success in the majors, and has multiple years of team control. Polanco could continue to play second with Farmer the utility infielder. If Polanco goes down Lee is waiting in St. Paul, or Farmer takes over if Lee doesn’t appear ready. Not sure the Mariners would go for something like this, but if the Twins could trade Julien and a couple minor league pieces to the Mariners for Gilbert or Kirby that would be ideal.

[Brian Kingfield]

After losing Arraez I’m not ready to say goodbye to another on-base percentage guy like Julien. And having him at the top of the lineup letting everybody get a good look at pitches is valuable.

[Major League Ready]

7 minutes ago, Drtwins said:

100% agree with the article. Trading away Farmer, Vazquez, Polanco, or Kepler would bring nothing of equivalent value to this year’s team. As the Twins still appear to have excess infield talent, Julien would be the player to move imo. He is young, had success in the majors, and has multiple years of team control. Polanco could continue to play second with Farmer the utility infielder. If Polanco goes down Lee is waiting in St. Paul, or Farmer takes over if Lee doesn’t appear ready. Not sure the Mariners would go for something like this, but if the Twins could trade Julien and a couple minor league pieces to the Mariners for Gilbert or Kirby that would be ideal.

This is why you keep a player.  You build around them, not trade them.  

[Nashvilletwin]

31 minutes ago, CoasterProductions said:

I think the reason Lee is untouchable is because of when Polanco leaves. Either after this season or in a trade he would take over at second.

Agree. Also, in 12 months, Lee will be a better offensive and defensive SS than Correa at 1/30th cost for the following five years.  That’s the equivalent of having an outstanding young QB on a rookie contract. 

[harmony55]

31 minutes ago, Drtwins said:

100% agree with the article. Trading away Farmer, Vazquez, Polanco, or Kepler would bring nothing of equivalent value to this year’s team. As the Twins still appear to have excess infield talent, Julien would be the player to move imo. He is young, had success in the majors, and has multiple years of team control. Polanco could continue to play second with Farmer the utility infielder. If Polanco goes down Lee is waiting in St. Paul, or Farmer takes over if Lee doesn’t appear ready. Not sure the Mariners would go for something like this, but if the Twins could trade Julien and a couple minor league pieces to the Mariners for Gilbert or Kirby that would be ideal.

And if Seattle could trade Bryan Woo or Bryce Miller for Edouard Julien that might be ideal for the Mariners (who are unlikely to trade George Kirby or Logan Gilbert).

[Dman]

I have been thinking about this a lot and I guess I am someone who probably loves prospects and future potential too much but, I don't really want the Twins to trade many prospects in the top ten let alone guys that already look good at the MLB level.

Jenkins could be the star player that drives this team like Lewis does I don't want to move him. As mentioned above Lee is the perfect Polanco replacement and he can play 2nd. short and 3rd along with being a switch hitter.  Lee completes the infield and adds a ton of versatility I think trading him would be a mistake.

Rodriguez is polarizing right now.  He could be something great or just meh.  Still he could be our center fielder by 2025 and\or an excellent Kepler replacement in right.  He has power and a good eye at the plate just like Kepler but possibly some contact issues.  There is no one close enough that can do what he does though and his upside is mini Soto.  The Twins likely need him as soon as next year.

The only guys in the top 10 or 11 on MLB.COM I would be OK trading would be Schobel, De Andrade or Keischal as they are just further infield depth and the Twins already have that and pretty far into the future.

I also can't see them trading Jullien as he has great plate discipline and power and is a really good lead off option. I realize that with Lee coming he likely gets moved off of second but his bat plays at first base or DH and he can play second at times as well.  I can see that in some ways he might be expendable but he is still important to this years team.

Wallner looks elite defensively in left and can handle right field.  His arm is a difference maker. His power is a difference maker.  Not sure if the K's catch up to him but he looks like a middle of the order bat and he is a native Minnesotan.  Just can't see moving him.

I get it if they can get a top of the rotation arm it might be worth moving one of the players mentioned but IMO they all have key roles to play on the current team as well.  Definitely some tough decisions if they are trading for a top of the rotation arm with years of control and arms are riskier bets long term than bats.  Where is @Mike Sixel to tell me I need to step out of my comfort zone and just take the risk and go for it?

[JD-TWINS]

I was a keep Max & trade Jorge proponent. Have been swayed within TD to now move both.

Depending upon what they think of Martin & Lee’s progress/capabilities will dictate how far they will/can go with moving veterans.

Lee (by July)at 3B & Lewis to LF & Wallner to right is a possibility……..Lee at 3B & Lewis to 1B with Kirilloff to the OF is another.

Move Polanco & Kepler if we can pair either with a Festa - Winder - Headrick - Rodriguez for an arm. Saves $21.5M to use on pitching and potentially a RH bat for OF, even Taylor.

Keep Farmer at less $ and better defensive flexibility & skills at this point than Polanco at all 3 spots.

Remaining Veteran core of CC - Buxton - Vázquez - Farmer - maybe Taylor for continuity in clubhouse.

Payroll would be down to around $104M if we keep all arbitration guys & trade Jorge & Max.

Taylor (or guy of choice, Duvall?) Wallner - Castro - Larnach - Gordon with Martin coming as the outfield.

Balance of $$ up to mid $130’s on pitching.

[Whitey333]

To me it is becoming more and more evident that this organization is a fraud.  Ive followed this team for 60 years and the past few seasons have shown why the Twins cannot be taken seriously.  They finally have a decent season then announce they are cutting payroll and some some scouting positions.  The fact that they are paying just two guys nearly 50 million per year sure shows very poor planning.  And one of those "players" literally has spent more time on the injury list than the field for the past 8 seasons.  Now with a cut payroll there won't be a whole lot to spend on acquiring good talent.  Oh yes we did get a draft pick for losing Sonny Gray.  Whoopee, we all know that a Hugh percentage never pan out.  They very seldom pay market value to retain or acquire good players.  I didn't say never.  I said seldom.  All they try to do to the fan base is sell hope and b.s.  it appears if they play it tight financially it suits them just fine.  If they make the playoffs it's just a bonus to them, not a planned occurrence.  Us gullible fans buy into this every year.  It's getting so old.

[Blyleven2011]

If we are trading with Seattle  it's might take a big bundle of prospects  ...

They would place high value on their pitching just like Cincinnati did with Castillo,  look what Seattle gave up to acquire Castillo with 2 1/2 years of control  ....

The twins will want to trade for a pitcher with some control  , is Kirby , Gilbert , woo  , Miller  better than Castillo  , probably  not right now but in a year or two  could be  ...

Also mentioned as a rumor is Yamamoto wants to sign with Seattle  , if they sign Yamamoto  they will have some good expendable pitchers to trade  , they need hitters with OPS  , they want major league ready players and we have a few veterans and some excess in infield prospects  ...

Not everybody will like the players that are traded away for a pitcher  ...

I didn't like trading away arraez but Lopez proved his  value and the trade worked out for both teams ...

Let's make a deal for a quality pitcher and have a nice Christmas present and an energetic Twins fest ...

[Blyleven2011]

8 minutes ago, Whitey333 said:

To me it is becoming more and more evident that this organization is a fraud.  Ive followed this team for 60 years and the past few seasons have shown why the Twins cannot be taken seriously.  They finally have a decent season then announce they are cutting payroll and some some scouting positions.  The fact that they are paying just two guys nearly 50 million per year sure shows very poor planning.  And one of those "players" literally has spent more time on the injury list than the field for the past 8 seasons.  Now with a cut payroll there won't be a whole lot to spend on acquiring good talent.  Oh yes we did get a draft pick for losing Sonny Gray.  Whoopee, we all know that a Hugh percentage never pan out.  They very seldom pay market value to retain or acquire good players.  I didn't say never.  I said seldom.  All they try to do to the fan base is sell hope and b.s.  it appears if they play it tight financially it suits them just fine.  If they make the playoffs it's just a bonus to them, not a planned occurrence.  Us gullible fans buy into this every year.  It's getting so old.

You have seen the light  and I sometimes think this way  , they run it as a business  , they love a profit more than they love the game ...

The Pohlads are the second richest family in Minnesota  and could add to their legacy  and spend  some of their inheritance money to bring a world series winner to the fans ...

Will the Pohlads ever see the light ...

[Coach Wheels]

You only trade your top prospects if you think you have a team 1 or 2 pieces short of a World Series ring. That's not the Twins, they'll keep youth to keep salary down knowing that winning the Central doesn't require a huge salary budget. 

[rv78]

31 minutes ago, Whitey333 said:

The fact that they are paying just two guys nearly 50 million per year sure shows very poor planning.  And one of those "players" literally has spent more time on the injury list than the field for the past 8 seasons.  Now with a cut payroll there won't be a whole lot to spend on acquiring good talent.

This is what I have been saying since they signed Dior Man and extended Injured Again Guy. The really BAD part of it, is that it is going to haunt them for 5 more years.

[CoasterProductions]

Here are two trade proposals. The Mariners one might seem like a lot but if we want one of there starters (especially Gilbert and Kirby) without trading our top 100 prospects it’s gonna probably take a lot.

[Doctor Evil]

No way do I trade Julian. He is one of our up and coming guys and has both ability and availability.

[CoasterProductions]

Here is one more for another rotation arm and a Vazquez replacement. The angels would probably eat some of Stassi’s salary for 2024

[rv78]

The Twins Face Tough Decisions To Make Impactful Trades

I actually don't think it is really a tough decision. It does require a new way of thinking and an opposite approach to the predicament the FO has put themselves into. #1, You trade away two of the $10M veteran salaries that are the most easy to replace with cheaper younger talent. That's Polanco and Kepler. I keep the other $10M man Vazquez, because the catcher position is one of the hardest to fill and having 2 capable guys there is a good plan. I also feel Vazquez will bounce back with a good season as he has in the past whenever he had a down year. Freeing up $20M easily gives the FO $35M to work with. I sign the best Free Agent Starting Pitcher I can with a good chunk of that money. Yes, I know it is something they don't normally do but like I said, they need to take a different approach just this once. In the meantime I get prospects for Polanco and Kepler since the only teams likely interested in them are contending teams, not rebuilding teams. They aren't going to trade their better pitchers for hitters if they are contending or close to it, so I gladly take prospects. I have Lewis, Julien, CC, Kirilloff, Farmer, Castro, Gordon, Miranda, with Lee and Martin almost ready for the infield positions. Wallner, Buxton, Castro, Kirilloff, Larnach, Gordon and Martin can all play outfield. The biggest questionmark is Buck but that is a whole nother story that has been played to death. I seriously look at adding a Senzel, or bringing back Taylor, or even attempt to get Jung-Hoo Lee to bolster that outfield. $35M should get that done as long as they are smart with the money and don't over-pay like they did with Buck, CC and Gallo. 

[Major League Ready]

Does Seattle need to trade one of their top SPs to get a bat like Polanco or Kepler or both?  Would we want our team to trade away a top SP so that we could get a prospect added to the deal.  Of course not.  They could get Polanco and Kepler or similar players from other teams for one of their less established pitchers so why would they trade any of their top arms?    Anything is possible but it makes no sense for Seattle or any other team to trade away a top arm unless the return is Juan Soto.

[Mike Sixel]

1 hour ago, Dman said:

I have been thinking about this a lot and I guess I am someone who probably loves prospects and future potential too much but, I don't really want the Twins to trade many prospects in the top ten let alone guys that already look good at the MLB level.

Jenkins could be the star player that drives this team like Lewis does I don't want to move him. As mentioned above Lee is the perfect Polanco replacement and he can play 2nd. short and 3rd along with being a switch hitter.  Lee completes the infield and adds a ton of versatility I think trading him would be a mistake.

Rodriguez is polarizing right now.  He could be something great or just meh.  Still he could be our center fielder by 2025 and\or an excellent Kepler replacement in right.  He has power and a good eye at the plate just like Kepler but possibly some contact issues.  There is no one close enough that can do what he does though and his upside is mini Soto.  The Twins likely need him as soon as next year.

The only guys in the top 10 or 11 on MLB.COM I would be OK trading would be Schobel, De Andrade or Keischal as they are just further infield depth and the Twins already have that and pretty far into the future.

I also can't see them trading Jullien as he has great plate discipline and power and is a really good lead off option. I realize that with Lee coming he likely gets moved off of second but his bat plays at first base or DH and he can play second at times as well.  I can see that in some ways he might be expendable but he is still important to this years team.

Wallner looks elite defensively in left and can handle right field.  His arm is a difference maker. His power is a difference maker.  Not sure if the K's catch up to him but he looks like a middle of the order bat and he is a native Minnesotan.  Just can't see moving him.

I get it if they can get a top of the rotation arm it might be worth moving one of the players mentioned but IMO they all have key roles to play on the current team as well.  Definitely some tough decisions if they are trading for a top of the rotation arm with years of control and arms are riskier bets long term than bats.  Where is @Mike Sixel to tell me I need to step out of my comfort zone and just take the risk and go for it?

Two hours later, and sleeping in. But, I'm kind of with you on the general idea. I'm only dealing prospects for an elite player. 

[CoasterProductions]

Here is another option for some bullpen help to

[Mike Sixel]

If they want to win this year, I only trade Polanco and sign an expensive FA SP. I don't see them signing that guy though.....

[saviking]

Young quality players with low salaries and many arbitration years left are worth their weight in gold to a small market team strapped for cash. No so much to a team with money to spend. We are who we are and have a nice nucleus of young players. I'm fine with where we are at ..

[Doctor Gast]

As a mid-size market team, FA isn't the answer and trades are our best option to obtain desired needs, especially now with the salary crunch. Before the Lopez/ Arraez trade, I kept advocating trades & gave trade suggestions to upgrade areas of need. Arguments against my ideas were the other teams would never trade these players, or they'd want a lot more than I suggested or we can't trade that player plus other excuses. In the end, these players were traded for less than I suggested. Yes, trading Arraez hurt, but we traded from an area of great depth to gain in an area of great need. The result was finally winning a postseason game & series. 

SPs are in high demand and even teams who were deep in pitching in the past are looking for SPs. To compensate for the lose of Gray, it'll take players that you mentioned. I hope that this FO are seriously considering those players you mentioned to  land a top tier SP.  To successfully secure a trade partner you have to correctly discover their needs. MIA is one of the best target to obtain top tier potential SPs, Their greatest needs are hitting & catching so my suggestion for trade bait is Jeffers. After I had mentioned this a ton of Vazquez offerings popped up. Vazquez will land you nobody & IF MIA agrees to Vazquez & that's a big IF, they'd want a greater value of players type that you mentioned & $ in return plus greatly downgrading our catching. Trading Jeffers would force this FO to upgrade our future catching prospective. 

I think the STV are viable. To reiterate, for us  to land a Pablo Lopez type we need to give up a Luis Arraez type. Or keep floundering around with a bunch of redundant players.

[Mike Sixel]

14 minutes ago, Doctor Gast said:

As a mid-size market team, FA isn't the answer and trades are our best option to obtain desired needs, especially now with the salary crunch. Before the Lopez/ Arraez trade, I kept advocating trades & gave trade suggestions to upgrade areas of need. Arguments against my ideas were the other teams would never trade these players, or they'd want a lot more than I suggested or we can't trade that player plus other excuses. In the end, these players were traded for less than I suggested. Yes, trading Arraez hurt, but we traded from an area of great depth to gain in an area of great need. The result was finally winning a postseason game & series. 

SPs are in high demand and even teams who were deep in pitching in the past are looking for SPs. To compensate for the lose of Gray, it'll take players that you mentioned. I hope that this FO are seriously considering those players you mentioned to  land a top tier SP.  To successfully secure a trade partner you have to correctly discover their needs. MIA is one of the best target to obtain top tier potential SPs, Their greatest needs are hitting & catching so my suggestion for trade bait is Jeffers. After I had mentioned this a ton of Vazquez offerings popped up. Vazquez will land you nobody & IF MIA agrees to Vazquez & that's a big IF, they'd want a greater value of players type that you mentioned & $ in return plus greatly downgrading our catching. Trading Jeffers would force this FO to upgrade our future catching prospective. 

I think the STV are viable. To reiterate, for us  to land a Pablo Lopez type we need to give up a Luis Arraez type. Or keep floundering around with a bunch of redundant players.

I'd be hard pressed to deal Jeffers, because he's a differenced maker (imo) at a position where the Twins have no depth.

[tony&rodney]

47 minutes ago, Major League Ready said:

Does Seattle need to trade one of their top SPs to get a bat like Polanco or Kepler or both?  Would we want our team to trade away a top SP so that we could get a prospect added to the deal.  Of course not.  They could get Polanco and Kepler or similar players from other teams for one of their less established pitchers so why would they trade any of their top arms?    Anything is possible but it makes no sense for Seattle or any other team to trade away a top arm unless the return is Juan Soto.

Would Seattle be interested in a young third baseman? I agree that Seattle holds the cards.

We read other posters and prefer ourselves to hold the best young players and prospects, but any significant trade would need to include one of the Twins "untouchables". If not, then no trade.

The Twins, with a reduced payroll, have backed themselves into a corner to some extent. The larger contracts are out of reach and there is not a precedent for signing top starting pitchers. Guys like Hoskins, Gurriel Jr. and Bellinger are pretty much out of reach too. Trading Kepler or Polanco for little return is pointless and by themselves they won't return a top pitcher.

While it seemed like a good time to add a Nola, Montgomery, or Snell, that ship has sailed. Perhaps Wacha or Giolito is still possible. Maybe a guy like Bader or Kiermaier is still doable as well. Something will happen, but the current roster will need to carry the load in 2024. Does anyone see a major trade this offseason by the Twins?

[Major League Ready]

15 minutes ago, Doctor Gast said:

As a mid-size market team, FA isn't the answer and trades are our best option to obtain desired needs, especially now with the salary crunch. Before the Lopez/ Arraez trade, I kept advocating trades & gave trade suggestions to upgrade areas of need. Arguments against my ideas were the other teams would never trade these players, or they'd want a lot more than I suggested or we can't trade that player plus other excuses. In the end, these players were traded for less than I suggested. Yes, trading Arraez hurt, but we traded from an area of great depth to gain in an area of great need. The result was finally winning a postseason game & series. 

SPs are in high demand and even teams who were deep in pitching in the past are looking for SPs. To compensate for the lose of Gray, it'll take players that you mentioned. I hope that this FO are seriously considering those players you mentioned to  land a top tier SP.  To successfully secure a trade partner you have to correctly discover their needs. MIA is one of the best target to obtain top tier potential SPs, Their greatest needs are hitting & catching so my suggestion for trade bait is Jeffers. After I had mentioned this a ton of Vazquez offerings popped up. Vazquez will land you nobody & IF MIA agrees to Vazquez & that's a big IF, they'd want a greater value of players type that you mentioned & $ in return plus greatly downgrading our catching. Trading Jeffers would force this FO to upgrade our future catching prospective. 

I think the STV are viable. To reiterate, for us  to land a Pablo Lopez type we need to give up a Luis Arraez type. Or keep floundering around with a bunch of redundant players.

Arraez was replaced by Julien which resulted in basically no loss of production.  We also had Polanco short-term and Lee long-term.  Who is replacing Jeffers that won't result in a significant drop in production not to mention we have no depth a catcher in general which makes it even more risky.

Move Polanco and free up the payroll space to sign a significant free agent or trade Polanco plus others to Seattle for one of their young guys.  If necessary, trade Polanco and one of Kepler / Farmer to provide payroll space but let's not trade away highly productive / low cost players with several years of control.