The Twins Face Tough Decisions To Make Impactful Trades

[Doctor Wu]

15 hours ago, DocBauer said:

One thing that fascinates me about various trade options presented here, and elsewhere, is the "largeness" of the presentations. Gray has basically been a #1-2 most of his career, never worse than a really good #3. And we got him for 2yrs for a rookie #1 draft selection in Petty. Now, Petty has some great potential, but an 18yo complete unknown  for Gray was pretty crazy. And while Arraez is a wonderful ballplayer, and a fan favorite, he brought back a young-ish #3 rotation arm with upside who had flashed at times. Forget anyone else thrown in, Arraez for Lopez straight up was a solid deal.

So why is everything 3 of the Twins top prospects or a couple of them and a current player...or two...for a SP? I keep looking at past FO moves and I keep thinking they will make a "smaller" move of 1 or 2 players/prospects for a Miller from Seattle, or Cabrera from Miami, or similar that is young and in whom they see upside.

We just don't know what other teams wants are. I can easily see someone wanting Polanco over Julien or Lee, for example, and for different reasons. I can see the Twins moving one of them, but not more. I can see moving one of Wallner, or Rodriguez, but not both. And as greatly talented as Rodriguez is, Wallner might be the "safer" of the two for the Twins to keep. 

Just saying, I would be surprised if the FO made a headlining move, and would more expect something like the Gray or Lopez kind of trade, that might even work out as good or better, and cost less.

Honestly, I almost want/expect a bounce back option like Giolito for upside return, or the best 2nd tier SP FA they like to deepen and stabalize the rotation while banking on a full return of Paddack and improvement from Ryan and Ober, and THEN use left over $ and some trade options...like Polanco...to add a bat, settle CF, or add a piece to the pen.

 

I expect Giolito will bounce back too. I wouldn't mind the Twins signing him to bolster the rotation. 

[Doctor Wu]

20 hours ago, Dman said:

Wallner looks elite defensively in left and can handle right field.  His arm is a difference maker. His power is a difference maker. 

Wallner would have been one of my choices as trade bait, but I didn't realize he was that good defensively. If that's the case, I take back my "trade him now" mindset, and keep him on the team. Maybe I was just blinded by all the strikeouts, but if he really can help defensively in the outfield, I'd keep him and hope his batting eye improves. 

[Dman]

2 hours ago, Doctor Wu said:

Wallner would have been one of my choices as trade bait, but I didn't realize he was that good defensively. If that's the case, I take back my "trade him now" mindset, and keep him on the team. Maybe I was just blinded by all the strikeouts, but if he really can help defensively in the outfield, I'd keep him and hope his batting eye improves. 

I would only give him elite status in Left mainly because his arm is such a weapon to throw guys out at the plate and or teams won't send guys knowing he is there.  He lacks Kepler like speed in right and while the arm still plays well there I don't feel like it has the same effect as in left. At any rate he is solid to above average in my book simply lacking the speed to get to some balls.

[Trov]

This is where some self scouting needs to be done.  Is the team sold that Julien is going to be a leadoff guy for years to come?  If so, will Lee be a top hitter for years to come too?  Can you play Lewis, Lee, CC, and Julien in same field?  Mainly would one move to 1st or OF?  

Similar will Wallner make the needed adjustments over his career?  I never put huge stock on a rookie season, even more so when it was mainly an early hot streak.  I remember when Badoo had huge first month and everyone was upset we did not protect him, but since he has been below league average, because league adjusted to him and he did not adjust back. Wallner had some hot streaks, but overall did seem to get better later in year, so there is hope there. 

However, big issue is that both were unplayable against lefties.  It was so bad their numbers against lefties in the season we would pull them every chance we had against a lefty.  Their OPS were both below .500 against them. So will either learn to put up a even a passable at bat against lefty? If not, neither have super high value because they are platoon players, not stars. 

Then other question is what are other teams willing to give up for them?  Do they fill a hole without leaving too much of one on our team?  Julien is unlikely to leave much of a hole, and this year Wallner would not either, depending on other moves.  The Rays have been know to do this, they trade guys at peak value getting good things from other teams and the player regresses.  Unless both Julien and Wallner improve against lefties, if they regress at all against righties they are replacement players at best. 

[Mike Sixel]

1 hour ago, Trov said:

This is where some self scouting needs to be done.  Is the team sold that Julien is going to be a leadoff guy for years to come?  If so, will Lee be a top hitter for years to come too?  Can you play Lewis, Lee, CC, and Julien in same field?  Mainly would one move to 1st or OF?  

Similar will Wallner make the needed adjustments over his career?  I never put huge stock on a rookie season, even more so when it was mainly an early hot streak.  I remember when Badoo had huge first month and everyone was upset we did not protect him, but since he has been below league average, because league adjusted to him and he did not adjust back. Wallner had some hot streaks, but overall did seem to get better later in year, so there is hope there. 

However, big issue is that both were unplayable against lefties.  It was so bad their numbers against lefties in the season we would pull them every chance we had against a lefty.  Their OPS were both below .500 against them. So will either learn to put up a even a passable at bat against lefty? If not, neither have super high value because they are platoon players, not stars. 

Then other question is what are other teams willing to give up for them?  Do they fill a hole without leaving too much of one on our team?  Julien is unlikely to leave much of a hole, and this year Wallner would not either, de???pending on other moves.  The Rays have been know to do this, they trade guys at peak value getting good things from other teams and the player regresses.  Unless both Julien and Wallner improve against lefties, if they regress at all against righties they are replacement players at best. 

Do the rays trade rookies that were very good? Seems unlikely. I don't know, I'm asking

[harmony55]

13 hours ago, Jim wyllie said:

First off of players mentioned I would only trade Rodriguez and as for the likes of veterans like Polanco, Kepler, farmer, and Vasquez I would use those as pieces in a trade package.  Do not forget the Astros are interested in Vasquez and the mariners are very interested in Polanco.   Perhaps putting Vasquez and Rodriguez in a package for Chaz Mccormick who is right handed and can play center field with some team control left.  Then move Polanco, farmer, and a couple prospects for a good pitcher like Gilbert or kirby from the mariners.   Use the veterans to minimize the need to trade projects while filling needs and cutting payroll.

Seattle is unlikely to be interested in a year and a team option of Jorge Polanco.

The Mariners are unlikely to trade away Logan Gilbert or George Kirby for anything short of an equally impactful and controllable bat.

Perhaps Seattle could offer a distant pitching prospect like the M's did years ago when the Mariners traded away Pablo Lopez and Freddy Peralta. ;-)

 

[MABB1959]

22 hours ago, Hawkeye Bean Counter said:

Tell me why the Twins would go hard after a player when they can get significant draft capital if they let him go?   We signed our Ace in Pablo.   We can fill in for a #2 with the trades as discussed here.  

When you say draft capital do you mean prospects.

[Hawkeye Bean Counter]

18 minutes ago, MABB1959 said:

When you say draft capital do you mean prospects.

A #30 to #33 draft pick.  You know a similar type pick that we used on Chase Petty that we were then able to flip for Sonny Gray.  Yes draft Capital that can turn into prospects.  Or may give the front office the ability to trade our Competitive Balance pick, the only pick that can be traded especially if we get another late round 1 pick.  However, I would rather make 4 picks in the top 44 so picks and see what they can do.  The more assets an organization has,  A. It likely allows for a better product on the field  B.  Gives more options to maneuver whether trades or otherwise to fill organizational needs.      

[MABB1959]

On 11/29/2023 at 12:30 PM, Hawkeye Bean Counter said:

A #30 to #33 draft pick.  You know a similar type pick that we used on Chase Petty that we were then able to flip for Sonny Gray.  Yes draft Capital that can turn into prospects.  Or may give the front office the ability to trade our Competitive Balance pick, the only pick that can be traded especially if we get another late round 1 pick.  However, I would rather make 4 picks in the top 44 so picks and see what they can do.  The more assets an organization has,  A. It likely allows for a better product on the field  B.  Gives more options to maneuver whether trades or otherwise to fill organizational needs.      

I never count on the draft picks.  I want good players now.  It has been a few years since they got prospects in the Berrios trade and not 100% sure either will make it. Tired of being on the outside looking in.

[RpR]

On 11/28/2023 at 8:39 AM, Dman said:

Wallner looks elite defensively in left and can handle right field.  His arm is a difference maker. His power is a difference maker.  Not sure if the K's catch up to him but he looks like a middle of the order bat and he is a native Minnesotan.  Just can't see moving him.

 

Wallner is as close to an elite Left Fielder as Julien is to being an elite 2nd Baseman.

Cannon arm that is far from accurate, while his speed helps make up for poor routes.

[Dman]

4 minutes ago, RpR said:

Wallner is as close to an elite Left Fielder as Julien is to being an elite 2nd Baseman.

Cannon arm that is far from accurate, while his speed helps make up for poor routes.

You are correct UZR and DRS are in the negative.  Was going off some highlights and games I saw him play.

[Blyleven2011]

18 hours ago, RpR said:

Wallner is as close to an elite Left Fielder as Julien is to being an elite 2nd Baseman.

Cannon arm that is far from accurate, while his speed helps make up for poor routes.

I agree that both wallner and Julien are not superior on defense but you have to have alittle faith in the players that they will get better , maybe not gold glove better , but better  ...

I know you like defense better than offense as your posts always reflect that ...

Also a P. S. 

Watch  all those thumb downs you handout  , people are sensitive  to them , if you don't agree with a post by others , just quote them  and give them details of why you disagree  , just a little constructive criticism  ...