Could This Los Angeles Angels Pitcher Be the Next Pablo López?

[Cody Schoenmann]

Last offseason, the Twins struck gold, finding their ace for the foreseeable future in Pablo López. With the impending departure of 2023 AL Cy Young Award runner-up Sonny Gray, the Twins are once again in need of frontline starting pitching. Could this promising Los Angeles Angels left-handed starting pitcher be the 2024 version of López?

Image courtesy of Kiyoshi Mio - USA TODAY Sports

Roughly three weeks ago, I wrote an article on three left-handed starting pitchers the Twins should consider pursuing in free agency. In the article, Blake Snell, Eduardo Rodriguez, and Jordan Montgomery were highlighted as three top-tier options that could adequately counteract the impending departure of AL Cy Young Award runner-up Sonny Gray and his 5.3 fWAR.

Many who follow the Twins had concocted mock offseason plans fueled by grand ambition due to the immense optimism sprung upon by the franchise finally ending their 18-game playoff losing streak and putting up a worthwhile fight against the then defending World Series Champion Houston Astros in the ALDS.

Unfortunately, the embers of those plans have been smothered by the cold cup of water that was the announcement of the Twins planning to undergo "significant payroll cuts" for the 2024 season. As Kim Ki-taek eloquently stated in the 2019 film Parasite, "You know what kind of plan never fails? No plan at all. You know why? If you make a plan, life never works out that way."

To shift from the pessimism just a smidge, though Snell, Rodriguez, or Montgomery are no longer realistic left-handed starting pitchers the Twins could pursue this offseason, that doesn't mean that specific market is closed. Cheaper secondary-market free-agent options like James Paxton, Wade Miley, and Hyun-jin Ryu are available. Yet, none of these three left-handed starting pitchers are viable one-for-one replacements for Gray's production. 

Unless the Twins unexpectedly become willing to dish out a significant multiyear contract to Gray himself or a viable replacement like Snell, Rodriguez, Montgomery, Lucas Giolito, or Yoshinobu Yamamoto -- or take a flier on an injury-prone high variance free agent like Frankie Montas or Marcus Stroman -- they will not be able to replace Gray through free agency.

Luckily, there is another market the Twins can search to find a viable replacement for Gray. Well-known, above-average starting pitcher trade targets like Corbin Burnes, Freddy Peralta, Shane Bieber, Dylan Cease, and Tyler Glasnow are the first names that come to mind. Yet, there are less-known, above-average options which, once given resources available to them that their current team doesn't provide, could become the next Pablo López. 

One of those options is Los Angeles Angels left-handed starting pitcher Patrick Sandoval. Sandoval, 27, has been a member of the Angels since 2019, with his best season coming in 2022. Here are Sandoval's numbers during his breakout 2022 season:

• 148 2/3 innings pitched (IP), 638 TBF, 2.91 ERA, 3.09 FIP, 3.67 xFIP, 3.94 SIERA, 6.3% HR/FB, 23.7% K%, 9.4% BB%, 0.48 HR/9, 76.8% LOB%, 139 hits allowed, 60 walks, 151 SO, 3.7 fWAR

Highlighted by a sub-three ERA and near-elite HR/FB ratio, Sandoval's 2022 campaign was fascinatingly similar to many of the underlying metrics Gray generated during his 2023 Cy Young Award-worthy campaign. To provide context, here are Gray's 2023 numbers compared to Sandoval's 2022 in specific metrics:

ERA

• Gray - 2.79 
• Sandoval - 2.91

SIERA

• Gray - 3.95
• Sandoval - 3.94

HR/9

• Gray - 0.39
• Sandoval - 0.48

LOB%

• Gray - 76.8%
• Sandoval - 76.8%

xFIP

• Gray - 3.64
• Sandoval - 3.67

There is an obvious caveat: Gray pitched 34 2/3 more innings in 2023 than Sandoval pitched in 2022. Regardless, Sandoval's 148 2/3 innings are a significant enough sample size compared to Gray's 184, which is essentially five to six more starts. Like Gray, Sandoval was able to post a sub-three ERA, suppress home runs, leave the majority of runners on base, and thrive in skill-based sabermetrics like xFIP and SIERA, which provide a more quantitative insight into the underlying skill level of pitchers.

Now, the current iteration of Sandoval is not as skilled as Gray, as evidenced by his lackluster 2023 season, where he produced a 4.11 ERA, 5.00 SIERA, 0.75 HR/9, 65% LOB%, and 4.61 xFIP. Though Sandoval finds himself in this current state with the Angels, what if he found himself in a more favorable situation?

Enter Pablo López.

While with the Miami Marlins, López operated in an environment that struggled to find ways to use analytics in player development advantageously. On the Gleeman and the Geek podcast, Aaron Gleeman of The Athletic noted that López, upon his arrival, was approached with a plan concocted by Pete Maki and the Twins pitching coaches to adjust his pitch mix through, most notably, adding a sweeper to his repertoire and using his changeup less.

Sandoval, who is in a similarly regressive situation in Los Angeles as López was in Miami, would likely benefit from the same revamp that López underwent upon his arrival with the Twins. Sandoval would have to be open-minded to the proposed ideas and adjustments like López was, but there is no reason to expect he wouldn't be, as most pitchers and MLB players are open to trying different techniques to advance and improve their craft. 

If the Twins were to trade for Sandoval, here is what a trade offer would likely look like:

• Twins Receive: Patrick Sandoval
• Angels Receive: Matt Wallner, Marco Raya

Now, trading Wallner and Raya for Sandoval is merely a hypothetical trade, not a suggestion. Trading promising young talents in Wallner and Raya is likely an overpay. Yet, the Angels plan on competing in 2024, so they will likely want MLB-ready talent in return for Sandoval, an established Major League-caliber starting pitcher. Nevertheless, the Twins would have to send a significant package to the Angels to acquire Sandoval, who is 27 and under team control until 2027.

As evidenced by his performance in 2022, Sandoval can be a frontline starting pitcher. Unfortunately, he has been the victim of an unstable and dreary situation where it is nearly impossible for a player to thrive unless they are at the skill level of Shohei Ohtani or Mike Trout. If Sandoval is given the opportunity to pitch in a more progressive and sustainable situation like López was given when he was traded from Miami to Minnesota, there is potential that he thrive and become a consistently above-average starting pitcher.

Should the Twins trade for Sandoval? Could he benefit from joining the Twins like López? Comment below.

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[arby58]

Wallner is a lot to give up, but so was Arraez. If the Angels really are in 'win now' mode (not sure I believe it unless they re-sign a certain pitcher/DH), they may want a closer to ready prospect instead of Raya. Maybe the Twins could limit the damages with, say, SWR, who was at Triple A last season. I'd only do the deal if the Twins really think Sandoval can be/become a number 2-3 starter.

[roger]

Very interesting option.  My question?

If the Twins have such a great environment for pitchers, why has it been so hard to entice free agents to sign here?

[CRF]

Wouldn't mind getting Sandoval here in a trade deal. Not so sure I want to give up Wallner in the deal though. 

[Launch Angle]

10 minutes ago, roger said:

Very interesting option.  My question?

If the Twins have such a great environment for pitchers, why has it been so hard to entice free agents to sign here?

Ummm, money....

[BSLinPA]

Ya beat me to it, L.A.

1.  Money

2.  Our favorite team plays 1/3 of their homes games outdoors in football weather

3.  And $$$$$$$$

[Otaknam]

It wouldn’t surprise me if they did something like this, given the need to solidly the rotation and the belief that the team is poised for a real post season run. .  But moving Wallner leaves strikeout prone Larnach as the apparent replacement, unless they sign a free agent outfielder to fill the gap, That would be a clear message about how they feel about Larnach. Trading Wallner would be difficult to swallow, given his immense potential and rocket arm. Sandoval would be intriguing to add to the rotation. But Raya looks like the Twins top pitching prospect, and they traded their previous top prospect Chase Petty for Gray. Maybe signing Mahle and keeping the prospects is a better option.

[Jacksson]

If I'm the Angels, I don't trade this guy.  However, considering the history of their front office moves, anything is possible.  Since the Angels always seem to be in search of pitching, send them some back and offer to take Jo Adell (he has worn out his welcome) to plug in to CF.

[High heat]

39 minutes ago, roger said:

Very interesting option.  My question?

If the Twins have such a great environment for pitchers, why has it been so hard to entice free agents to sign here?

Have we really had that much success? We compare it to the end of the Terry Ryan era but around the league no so much.  Especially with bringing in FA or established MLB players.  
 

Pablo Lopez stayed healthy which help his # but was he really much better?  Joe Ryan has came in as a finished minor league product and made some adjustments.  The others have just been developed through or system.  
 

I don’t think the Angels are going to compete and are completely fooling themselves.  I don’t know much about Sandoval will be looking more in depth about him.

[Karbo]

IMO that would be way too much to give up for a guy that has had 1 good year. The deal for Lopez was getting a guy that had plus stuff. His biggest issue pre-trade was staying healthy.

[DJL44]

If they can get a #2 starter for a corner outfield bat they should make that deal every day. It's pretty easy to find a halfway decent bat in free agency for a reasonable price. It's nearly impossible to find a #2 starter for less than $25M a season.

[tony&rodney]

Anything is possible, almost any player available, if a team is willing to send a pile of people in return. One thing I wonder for nearly every suggested acquisition is how the other team views their team. Can the Angels (insert any team here) part with Sandoval (insert player name)? 

Another obstacle is money. Or is it? If it is problematic, then signing a free agent that requires big numbers, such as Snell, Montgomery, Yamamoto, or Bellinger is out, Trades that return high priced players is then also difficult to unlikely, such as Juan Soto or Robbie Ray among others.

The challenges are real. Who are the Twins willing to part with among their prospects and young players? We have discussed trading all of Polanco, Kepler, Vazquez, and Farmer. Some have suggested trading Buxton and Correa who have full no trade clauses in their contracts. Even Caleb Thielbar has had his name put out to save some money. So whenever I read about a thought of acquiring a guy like Sandaval I'm intrigued by the possibilities as well as the odds and cost.

[old nurse]

Why would a chronically starved starting pitcher team trade a starting pitcher ?  If you are counting on them making a mistake the you hope they would take a trade of SWR, Balazovic, Winder and Sands 

[DocBauer]

He could be a great fit and a similar success story as Lopez. The Angels just look like a dumpster fire to me. They traded prospects for rentals when they were a bit of a longshot to make the playoffs, then dumped everyone, are going to lose Ohtani, and rumors persist that Trout might be moved for the team to re-build. And part of the reason they dumped everyone was to lower payroll enough to get a better pick when Ohtani signs with someone.

They might like a package like Wallner and Raya as part of a re-build. They might like a different package. But the cost seems relatively fair, but maybe a little high on the Twins side?

Not sure Kepler's status beyond 2024, and without Wallner, I'm suddenly worried about the OF. Not saying Wallner is guaranteed to develop in to a stud, but I like what I've seen so far and don't want to strip the OF.

Maybe a 3 for 1 and go a little lower in the system for a re-building Angels team?

Think I'm adding the Angels to Seattle and Miami on my list of good fit trade team options.

[awmonahan]

The Twins pursued Pablo for years. They obviously knew him well. They even had a plan to unlock the next level for him. To Pablo's credit, he was able to take it on, including adding a sweeper and using it immediately.

I'm curious who else they're following closely. Based on stats, Sandoval looks like a solid comparison. I'd just caution that some of the things that make Pablo who he is do not show up so obviously in the stat line.

[Fatbat]

Wallner being the hometown kid with huge potential isn't going to get traded early in his career.  Raya is the bulldog that our FO is betting on so he is not going anywhere.  I can see SWR and maybe Headrick  packaged for Sandoval, they seem to be close to MLB but not exactly in the plans to be fulltimers in ‘24.  That would also open up a 40man spot. 

[JD-TWINS]

1 hour ago, roger said:

Very interesting option.  My question?

If the Twins have such a great environment for pitchers, why has it been so hard to entice free agents to sign here?

$$$$

[JD-TWINS]

Headrick/Winder - Festa - Larnach for a guy that can be our #3 or #4  or even #5 starter is worthwhile. ……..we are in win now mode - can’t afford to trade Wallner’s upside. The guys above don’t affect our near term much at all. They certainly have value…….who knows what Angels may want?

Keller in Pittsburgh is a Big swing but may be worthwhile to move 3-4 guys …….maybe a Rodriguez - Miranda - Festa - Headrick/Winder package?

[Doctor Gast]

IDK I could be wrong but LAA is a big market team that likes to throw big money at players like Trout, Ohtani & Rendon. It's hard for me to believe that LAA pitchers don't have access to top analytical equipement. MIA & PIT are small market but even PIT is trying to improve.

[Oldgoat_MN]

Whenever I see Wallner identified as a trade chip I wonder what people think of him.

328 MLB players had >=250 PA in 2023. Matt Wallner had a higher OPS (.877) than all but 17 of them.

He had a .328 BABIP (higher than all but 60 of these same 328), but that OPS is still impressive. 

Was that a fluke? Is he going to regress to the point that he's easily and cheaply replaced?

Really fun ideas here, but each trade proposal suggested exposes some confidence (or lack thereof) in our current player.

[Karbo]

1 hour ago, DJL44 said:

If they can get a #2 starter for a corner outfield bat they should make that deal every day. It's pretty easy to find a halfway decent bat in free agency for a reasonable price. It's nearly impossible to find a #2 starter for less than $25M a season.

I don't think he is a #2 starter. 

[Karbo]

1 hour ago, DocBauer said:

He could be a great fit and a similar success story as Lopez. The Angels just look like a dumpster fire to me. They traded prospects for rentals when they were a bit of a longshot to make the playoffs, then dumped everyone, are going to lose Ohtani, and rumors persist that Trout might be moved for the team to re-build. And part of the reason they dumped everyone was to lower payroll enough to get a better pick when Ohtani signs with someone.

They might like a package like Wallner and Raya as part of a re-build. They might like a different package. But the cost seems relatively fair, but maybe a little high on the Twins side?

Not sure Kepler's status beyond 2024, and without Wallner, I'm suddenly worried about the OF. Not saying Wallner is guaranteed to develop in to a stud, but I like what I've seen so far and don't want to strip the OF.

Maybe a 3 for 1 and go a little lower in the system for a re-building Angels team?

Think I'm adding the Angels to Seattle and Miami on my list of good fit trade team options.

IMO this isn't the guy to go after. He's not in the same tier as Lopez and other than 1 good season, has been a 4-5 starter. I'd rather give our own guys the chance, and see where things are mid season.

[Karbo]

52 minutes ago, JD-TWINS said:

Headrick/Winder - Festa - Larnach for a guy that can be our #3 or #4  or even #5 starter is worthwhile. ……..we are in win now mode - can’t afford to trade Wallner’s upside. The guys above don’t affect our near term much at all. They certainly have value…….who knows what Angels may want?

Keller in Pittsburgh is a Big swing but may be worthwhile to move 3-4 guys …….maybe a Rodriguez - Miranda - Festa - Headrick/Winder package?

I think Varland, Fiesta, and even SWR have higher ceilings.

[Fatbat]

4 minutes ago, Karbo said:

I don't think he is a #2 starter. 

Not yet but then neither was Lopez in Miami. 

[Fatbat]

4 minutes ago, Karbo said:

I think Varland, Fiesta, and even SWR have higher ceilings.

Especially Festa. 

[Boswell]

As Kim Ki-taek eloquently stated in the 2019 film Parasite, "You know what kind of plan never fails? No plan at all. You know why? If you make a plan, life never works out that way."

1 hour ago, awmonahan said:

The Twins pursued Pablo for years. They obviously knew him well. They even had a plan to unlock the next level for him. To Pablo's credit, he was able to take it on, including adding a sweeper and using it immediately.

I'm curious who else they're following closely. Based on stats, Sandoval looks like a solid comparison. I'd just caution that some of the things that make Pablo who he is do not show up so obviously in the stat line.

Winston Churchill said that “Plans are useless.  Planning is essential.”

It does seem that the brilliant ones in the field are able to work with a number of different “plans” at the same time, but then actually implement the one (or maybe just simply _a_ one) that gets the job done.   
 

Miami also seemed to have their eyes on Arraez (nice rhyme) for some time.  Who finds which of our players attractive?

Forget about Snell, Montgomery, Yamamoto, Gray and so forth.   “The plan” has always been to have a frugal payroll to match the frugal sensibilities of the market.  Minnesota is also a smaller than expected market simply because our non-winters are too short and folks have so many other options and passions to pursue in that 3-5 month window. 

[DJL44]

23 minutes ago, Karbo said:

I don't think he is a #2 starter. 

Then he's not the next Pablo Lopez or Sonny Gray.

[Parfigliano]

2 hours ago, Otaknam said:

It wouldn’t surprise me if they did something like this, given the need to solidly the rotation and the belief that the team is poised for a real post season run. .  But moving Wallner leaves strikeout prone Larnach as the apparent replacement, unless they sign a free agent outfielder to fill the gap, That would be a clear message about how they feel about Larnach. Trading Wallner would be difficult to swallow, given his immense potential and rocket arm. Sandoval would be intriguing to add to the rotation. But Raya looks like the Twins top pitching prospect, and they traded their previous top prospect Chase Petty for Gray. Maybe signing Mahle and keeping the prospects is a better option.

If Mahle can ever stay healthy.  Big big if.

[terrydactyls]

I'm suspicious of any trade that is based on thinking that he had one good season two years ago and pitched for a team that doesn't use analytics nearly as well as the Twins do, so therefore he will be the next Pablo Lopez.  Ah well, it is the off season.

[specialiststeve]

I would be good with getting both Sandoval and Adel in a Package deal but clearly would be depending on price. I would NOT include Festa or Wallner as both have really high ceilings. 

If could do with Larnach and some other pitchers in our system .. all good. As stated by some ... not sure what would motivate LAA in trading him as they need pitching ....