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Roughly three weeks ago, I wrote an article on three left-handed starting pitchers the Twins should consider pursuing in free agency. In the article, Blake Snell, Eduardo Rodriguez, and Jordan Montgomery were highlighted as three top-tier options that could adequately counteract the impending departure of AL Cy Young Award runner-up Sonny Gray and his 5.3 fWAR.
Many who follow the Twins had concocted mock offseason plans fueled by grand ambition due to the immense optimism sprung upon by the franchise finally ending their 18-game playoff losing streak and putting up a worthwhile fight against the then defending World Series Champion Houston Astros in the ALDS.
Unfortunately, the embers of those plans have been smothered by the cold cup of water that was the announcement of the Twins planning to undergo "significant payroll cuts" for the 2024 season. As Kim Ki-taek eloquently stated in the 2019 film Parasite, "You know what kind of plan never fails? No plan at all. You know why? If you make a plan, life never works out that way."
To shift from the pessimism just a smidge, though Snell, Rodriguez, or Montgomery are no longer realistic left-handed starting pitchers the Twins could pursue this offseason, that doesn't mean that specific market is closed. Cheaper secondary-market free-agent options like James Paxton, Wade Miley, and Hyun-jin Ryu are available. Yet, none of these three left-handed starting pitchers are viable one-for-one replacements for Gray's production.
Unless the Twins unexpectedly become willing to dish out a significant multiyear contract to Gray himself or a viable replacement like Snell, Rodriguez, Montgomery, Lucas Giolito, or Yoshinobu Yamamoto -- or take a flier on an injury-prone high variance free agent like Frankie Montas or Marcus Stroman -- they will not be able to replace Gray through free agency.
Luckily, there is another market the Twins can search to find a viable replacement for Gray. Well-known, above-average starting pitcher trade targets like Corbin Burnes, Freddy Peralta, Shane Bieber, Dylan Cease, and Tyler Glasnow are the first names that come to mind. Yet, there are less-known, above-average options which, once given resources available to them that their current team doesn't provide, could become the next Pablo López.
One of those options is Los Angeles Angels left-handed starting pitcher Patrick Sandoval. Sandoval, 27, has been a member of the Angels since 2019, with his best season coming in 2022. Here are Sandoval's numbers during his breakout 2022 season:
- 148 2/3 innings pitched (IP), 638 TBF, 2.91 ERA, 3.09 FIP, 3.67 xFIP, 3.94 SIERA, 6.3% HR/FB, 23.7% K%, 9.4% BB%, 0.48 HR/9, 76.8% LOB%, 139 hits allowed, 60 walks, 151 SO, 3.7 fWAR
Highlighted by a sub-three ERA and near-elite HR/FB ratio, Sandoval's 2022 campaign was fascinatingly similar to many of the underlying metrics Gray generated during his 2023 Cy Young Award-worthy campaign. To provide context, here are Gray's 2023 numbers compared to Sandoval's 2022 in specific metrics:
ERA
- Gray - 2.79
- Sandoval - 2.91
SIERA
- Gray - 3.95
- Sandoval - 3.94
HR/9
- Gray - 0.39
- Sandoval - 0.48
LOB%
- Gray - 76.8%
- Sandoval - 76.8%
xFIP
- Gray - 3.64
- Sandoval - 3.67
There is an obvious caveat: Gray pitched 34 2/3 more innings in 2023 than Sandoval pitched in 2022. Regardless, Sandoval's 148 2/3 innings are a significant enough sample size compared to Gray's 184, which is essentially five to six more starts. Like Gray, Sandoval was able to post a sub-three ERA, suppress home runs, leave the majority of runners on base, and thrive in skill-based sabermetrics like xFIP and SIERA, which provide a more quantitative insight into the underlying skill level of pitchers.
Now, the current iteration of Sandoval is not as skilled as Gray, as evidenced by his lackluster 2023 season, where he produced a 4.11 ERA, 5.00 SIERA, 0.75 HR/9, 65% LOB%, and 4.61 xFIP. Though Sandoval finds himself in this current state with the Angels, what if he found himself in a more favorable situation?
Enter Pablo López.
While with the Miami Marlins, López operated in an environment that struggled to find ways to use analytics in player development advantageously. On the Gleeman and the Geek podcast, Aaron Gleeman of The Athletic noted that López, upon his arrival, was approached with a plan concocted by Pete Maki and the Twins pitching coaches to adjust his pitch mix through, most notably, adding a sweeper to his repertoire and using his changeup less.
Sandoval, who is in a similarly regressive situation in Los Angeles as López was in Miami, would likely benefit from the same revamp that López underwent upon his arrival with the Twins. Sandoval would have to be open-minded to the proposed ideas and adjustments like López was, but there is no reason to expect he wouldn't be, as most pitchers and MLB players are open to trying different techniques to advance and improve their craft.
If the Twins were to trade for Sandoval, here is what a trade offer would likely look like:
- Twins Receive: Patrick Sandoval
- Angels Receive: Matt Wallner, Marco Raya
Now, trading Wallner and Raya for Sandoval is merely a hypothetical trade, not a suggestion. Trading promising young talents in Wallner and Raya is likely an overpay. Yet, the Angels plan on competing in 2024, so they will likely want MLB-ready talent in return for Sandoval, an established Major League-caliber starting pitcher. Nevertheless, the Twins would have to send a significant package to the Angels to acquire Sandoval, who is 27 and under team control until 2027.
As evidenced by his performance in 2022, Sandoval can be a frontline starting pitcher. Unfortunately, he has been the victim of an unstable and dreary situation where it is nearly impossible for a player to thrive unless they are at the skill level of Shohei Ohtani or Mike Trout. If Sandoval is given the opportunity to pitch in a more progressive and sustainable situation like López was given when he was traded from Miami to Minnesota, there is potential that he thrive and become a consistently above-average starting pitcher.
Should the Twins trade for Sandoval? Could he benefit from joining the Twins like López? Comment below.
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