The Fall Off: 3 Twins Prospects Whose Stock Dropped in 2023

[Nick Nelson]

These three Twins prospects struggled with performance or injuries this year. All will have something to prove coming off disappointing seasons.

Image courtesy of Rob Thompson, St. Paul Saints

Yesterday we took a look at the three biggest risers from the Twins system in 2023, comparing our preseason top prospect rankings against our latest postseason update to highlight three players who made huge jumps: David Festa, Tanner Schobel and Kala'i Rosario. 

Today, we'll take a look at the flip side: the prospects who fell farthest in our rankings from the beginning of the season to the end. No one should count any of these guys out, but they'll be looking to rebound and build back following campaigns that can only be labeled as major setbacks. 

Two of these players were acquired in high-profile trades, while the other was a high-stakes draft gamble that has so far failed to pay any dividends.

Simeon Woods Richardson, RHP
Preseason Rank: 6
Postseason Rank: 17

In 2022, Woods Richardson closed out a stellar first full season in the Twins system with an impressive major-league debut: five innings of one-run ball in Detroit. The right-hander, acquired alongside Austin Martin in exchange José Berríos at the previous deadline, excelled at both Wichita and St. Paul, setting himself up as ready-made MLB depth. He was riding high.

This year was a totally different story. Woods Richardson's first half was a disaster – through 12 outings (11 at AAA, one in MLB), he had a 7.66 ERA and with a .932 opponent OPS. His velocity, stuff, and command all lagged. 

The big righty bounced back in the second half, posting much better numbers down the stretch for the Saints, but even then his peripherals were nothing special. He finished with a 4.91 ERA, 1.50 WHIP and 96-to-61 K/BB ratio in 114 innings. Age has always been on SWR's side, but at 23, he's not THAT young by prospect standards anymore.

It's too soon to give up on him, but it might be time to start thinking hard about a future in the bullpen. (He completed six innings only three times in 22 starts at Triple-A.)

Connor Prielipp, LHP
Preseason Rank: 7
Postseason Rank: 13

High-risk, high-reward. That was always the book on Prielipp, and unfortunately we've seen all of that risk come to fruition in a young yet tumultuous pro career.

The hope was that the left-hander's elbow troubles were behind him after undergoing Tommy John surgery while still in college at Alabama, where he was limited to just 28 total innings in three years. His upside when healthy was high enough for the Twins to set aside his injury concerns and draft the Wisconsin native 48th overall in 2022. 

Unfortunately Prielipp, who didn't pitch after being drafted last year, made only two appearances this year – one in April, one in June – before another surgery was deemed necessary for the elbow issues that continued to plague him. 

Over the past four years, between college and the pros, Prielipp has thrown a total of 34 ⅔ innings.

There's no framing that fact, nor back-to-back UCL repairs, in any kind of positive light. But there is some semblance of good news: Prielipp's most recent surgery, an increasingly common variation of Tommy John surgery that involves an internal brace, is considered a bit less serious than the standard version.

Prielipp turns 23 this offseason. He's got a long way to go in terms of getting healthy and building up strength, but the upside remains high if this second surgery takes.

Jose Salas, 2B/3BSS
Preseason Rank: 8
Postseason Rank: 23

The Twins thought they were getting themselves a find in Salas, who was added by the Marlins as an additional piece alongside Pablo Lopez in January's Luis Arraez trade. They weren't the only ones. Baseball Prospectus was very high on the teenaged infielder in the spring, ranking him #93 in their global top prospects list.

The enthusiasm was easy to understand: Salas had put forth an impressive effort at age in 19 in Single-A, flashing speed, power, and contact hitting skills. Plus, he has good genetics – his younger brother Ethan Salas is considered a top-five prospect in baseball.

Unlike Ethan, Jose did not improve his stock in 2023. It was a tough campaign for the 20-year-old as he onboarded into the Twins organization. Salas slashed .188/.263/.268 while spending nearly his entire season at High-A Cedar Rapids. His budding power took a nose dive and his plate discipline spiraled. 

The good news is that Salas still has plenty of time to turn it around, although he will (I believe) be eligible for the Rule 5 draft this offseason if the Twins don't add him to the 40-man roster (which they presumably won't). Perhaps this underwhelming season will temper the interest of other teams and prove to ultimately be a blessing in disguise for Minnesota – a la Jose Miranda.

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[FlyingFinn]

Nobody is taking Salas in the Rule 5 draft and keeping him on their MLB roster for all of 2024. He doesn't play SS, is only 1 year younger than Noah Miller and hits far worse than Miller. 

[Nashvilletwin]

SWR seems like he has one more year to turn things around, but he is quite a bit back now in the ‘25 future starter sweepstakes. He”s still young, but do pitchers who eventually make the bigs spend four complete years in AAA (which is where he’d be after ‘25)?  I’d like to think he might need a new home, but I seen to recall he’s already moved around quite a bit.  Here’s hoping he at least runs into some hot streaks and can be a spot starter over the next couple of years. However, at this point, the smart money would have to take the under on him being a definitive member of the rotation at any time over the next two years (and, therefore, maybe ever). Here’s hoping he figures it out.

Prielipp could be lower at this stage; he’s proven exactly nothing. Still he has promise. Question: do you prefer SWR with what he’s shown or the promise of Prielipp behind door #2?  IMHO, Nick has it right -  probably Prielipp.  Let’s see what happens in ‘24.

Some of us TDers thought at the time of the trade Salas would never make the bigs and third guy in the deal (sorry, I can’t recall his name off the top of my head) actually had more upside.  No reason to change that assessment after ‘23; Salas has a long way to go and lots of other players to climb over to ever see Target Field.  Hope that’s changes in ‘24 for him.

 

[tony&rodney]

Too early to give up on Salas, that is for sure. It is highly doubtful that any team would give an MLB roster position to such an inexperienced, raw player. Salas could still rebound in a big way. He looked quite tentative at the plate. Once he got on base he felt more comfortable but the swing needs some work and Salas just needs to play for a couple of years to see where his career is headed.

Prielipp has had physical misfortune. I think he needs to be fully healed and built back up to game speed before pitching in game situations. The Twins will be careful with him. By this time next year we should have a better picture of how his arm has responded to intervention and whether Connor could be a good prospect with development. I'm not giving up on him.

Woods Richardson has certainly had his share of challenges being traded twice. He looks inconsistent from pitch to pitch and from inning to inning. However, Simeon is a big strong guy who has a number of pitches that do work at times. He still has more upside than a guy like Jordan Balazavic. I wonder if SWR becomes an add-on in a trade of big names in order to seal a deal, similar to how Jose Salas came to the Twins.

[jmlease1]

I'm still on Team SWR and believe in his talent. but 2024 will be a big year for him: either he figures it out as a starter, or he's going to be heading to the bullpen. Right now he's still arguably 7th on the depth chart for Twins starting pitching (assuming Gray and Maeda are gone and Varland doesn't move permanently into the bullpen), which is a position I would have felt better about a year ago. I think the control issues were his biggest problem last season; it'll be interesting to see if there might have been a mechanical flaw that they can iron out over the winter? He did finish the season in better shape, with 7 straight starts going 5 of better, but he also only had one game the entire season where he went more than 6. Saint Paul was a tough environment for pitchers though.

Prielipp was a risky pick, but it was worth a shot. Hopefully the Twins will be able to get him rehabbed and be able to see who he still might be as a pitcher before they have to make decisions on him via Rule 5. You have to push him down the ranks, but he was still a player worth taking a risk on.

Salas was always probably ranked a little too high? He's still really young, at least. I can't see him getting protected from the Rule 5 draft and there's seemingly no way he gets tapped. He's nowhere near ready for MLB and wouldn't even contribute much defensively.

If the three biggest fallers on a prospect chart are a guy with a significant injury, an A-ball guy who was something of a throw-in on a trade, and a AAA pitcher who has still thrown in the majors...I feel ok about the overall state of the minors.

[Dman]

That is a good list.

I really thought SWR was going to be something, but it really looks like he is stalling out at the higher levels.  Not sure what the answer is there, but pen does seem likely at this point.

Tough break on Prielipp.  A steal in the 2nd round even if he ends up in a relief role.  It is a long road back, but lot's of players have made it back.  Hoping it just takes a bit more time but he reaches his full potential.  Time will tell.

Salas was a major disappointment.  A bit more progress at the plate late in the season, but when you have a bat that bad it seems the whole approach is wrong.  He is in Cavaco territory right now.  Still young with a chance to bounce back, but next year is super important.  If the bat doesn't progress the odds it ever will become lower and lower.

 

[Blyleven2011]

Send the two to driveline , get them straightened out with different coaching and voices  ...

When will preilipp be able to start his season next year , does he need a year of rehab again following latest surgery   ???? 

As for driveline  , there should also be some current players that want to save and improve their careers going this winter  , larnach  for one and if healthy Miranda  , be ready to strike and hit the ball in spring training ....

[mikelink45]

I think you chose well.  It is always a gamble to try and predict the future of prospects.  Two years ago I though Balazovic was going to be a frontline starter.  Now I think he is falling off the roster.  Headrick, Winder, Sands have all been prospects and call ups - none looks like they are going to have a long and productive career in the majors. 

I have disagreed with the Prielipp hype since we got him.  I need to see players on the field before I can see them ranked. 

I also thought Larnach would be a stud and Celestino would develop into a starter.  My how time changes perception. 

[Rod Carews Birthday]

It is unfortunate that this can happen, both for the team and for the player.  Mostly though, it really does show us how difficult it is to predict future MLB success.  There is no one perfect path to the majors.  Sometimes it's no one's fault -- injuries, etc.  Sometimes it's a player moving down  (or being moved down) the wrong path for them - imagine making Luis Arraez into a power hitter.  Sometimes the player loses commitment and interest.  Sometimes they're just not as good as we imagined or hoped that they would be.  And that's just for the front offices that have way more information than we do!  That's why I mostly try not to get too excited about prospects coming up until they are absolutely ripping up AA and/or AAA. 

The good news is that one big reason prospects drop is because other prospects rise to take their place.  Hopefully they can live up to their new ranking. 

[Dave Borton]

2 hours ago, Nashvilletwin said:

However, at this point, the smart money would have to take the under on him <SWR> being a definitive member of the rotation at any time over the next two years (and, therefore, maybe ever). Here’s hoping he figures it out.

I second that. I watched him very carefully at StP. Big guy who doesn't use his legs/thighs at all in his delivery. Contrast that w/a Verlander mechanics. JV has huge thighs developed during his recovery year from TJ surgery.

SWR - All arm and upper body. Walked away from game wondering how he/pitching coaches expected SWR to improve.

Would love to be proven wrong.

[Jocko87]

Let's pump the brakes on make or break year stuff with SWR.  He's the guy that feels 28 but then you look and oh dang, he just turned 23 a month ago.  A 22 yo struggling at AAA isn't exactly the end of the world.  I choose to look at it as having a 23 yo starter prospect at AAA is still 3 years ahead of pace.  He's learning how his man muscles work.

[Rod Carews Birthday]

29 minutes ago, davidborton said:

I second that. I watched him very carefully at StP. Big guy who doesn't use his legs/thighs at all in his delivery. Contrast that w/a Verlander mechanics. JV has huge thighs developed during his recovery year from TJ surgery.

SWR - All arm and upper body. Walked away from game wondering how he/pitching coaches expected SWR to improve.

Would love to be proven wrong.

I'm in agreement.  The challenge is to decide whether he has a great deal more potential because he is somewhat successful without advantageous mechanics or whether his lack of those mechanics will never allow him to get there.  Sometimes, a player looks great and does everything right and is no better than SWR is now.  In such a player there is no potential.  In SWR, if things can be unlocked, he could still be very good - whether that's in the bullpen or the rotation.  It would be exciting to be his coach, but also potentially very frustrating!

 

[thelanges5]

2 hours ago, Nashvilletwin said:

SWR seems like he has one more year to turn things around, but he is quite a bit back now in the ‘25 future starter sweepstakes. He”s still young, but do pitchers who eventually make the bigs spend four complete years in AAA (which is where he’d be after ‘25)?  I’d like to think he might need a new home, but I seen to recall he’s already moved around quite a bit.  Here’s hoping he at least runs into some hot streaks and can be a spot starter over the next couple of years. However, at this point, the smart money would have to take the under on him being a definitive member of the rotation at any time over the next two years (and, therefore, maybe ever). Here’s hoping he figures it out.

Prielipp could be lower at this stage; he’s proven exactly nothing. Still he has promise. Question: do you prefer SWR with what he’s shown or the promise of Prielipp behind door #2?  IMHO, Nick has it right -  probably Prielipp.  Let’s see what happens in ‘24.

Some of us TDers thought at the time of the trade Salas would never make the bigs and third guy in the deal (sorry, I can’t recall his name off the top of my head) actually had more upside.  No reason to change that assessment after ‘23; Salas has a long way to go and lots of other players to climb over to ever see Target Field.  Hope that’s changes in ‘24 for him.

 

Byron Chourio - FCL

 

[NeverSeenATwinsPlayoffWin]

SWR's fastball is pretty awful. Maybe he needs to adjust the grip or something, but it has no rise or arm-side run; it is a very hittable 90mph pitch. His changeup does not drop either- he was scouted as a guy with a true four-pitch mix, but his top two pitches are not at an MLB level. 

[Hawkeye Bean Counter]

Priellip dropping is meaningless to me.  Due to injury a player shouldn't drop.  Now it will come down to performance next year.  If he performs well,  he is one of our top options as a #1 or #2 SP and fyi he is a left hander.   Similar to Paddack,  to see what the true value is we need patience.  I am cautiously optimistic he pans out.  I agree with the other 2 on the list.  

[old nurse]

Prielip is the exact same pitcher now as he was a year ago. One year older. One ranking or the other then is horribly inaccurate. On the other hand from a high ceiling aspect, the draft did add 4 shiny new highly rateable prospects to like. That is, until you don’t.

Salas should have been viewed as a high ceiling lottery ticket. His being ranked that high at the beginning of the year was yet again another rating mistake. 

 

[stringer bell]

Woods Richardson pitched much better the last third or so of the season IIRC. Also, run scoring was insanely high in AAA this year, so his numbers aren't as poor as they look. It is important to point out that he turned 23 after the Triple A season was over and is the second-youngest player to appear for the Twins. Yes, he may have to redo some of his delivery to get more juice in the fastball and more movement on his pitches, but I think there's something pretty good there. 

Prielipp needs a healthy season to restore his status. Salas needs to adjust to higher level pitching. I'm not ready to give up on any of the "fall off three", but 2024 becomes a very significant year for all three.

[Steve Lein]

I hate to say it, but I never understood Salas being a part of the deal for Pablo in the first place. I didn't really have any interest in a 19-year old A-ball infielder being some valuable part of that trade. I think the Twins fell for some misguided hype there, probably due to his age. In that way he is still young, but definitely will need to add something else to his narrative moving forward.

Still have a lot of hope for Prielipp, if he can ever get healthy!

I also still expect something out of SWR. His stuff this season didn't ever really make sense to me watching him, like he wasn't ever 100%. Next year is a big one for him for sure.

[Fatbat]

Its quite possible this trio will bounce back in 2024 in a big way.  Career progression is never linear or so I’ve heard …. 

[Richie the Rally Goat]

12 minutes ago, Fatbat said:

Its quite possible this trio will bounce back in 2024 in a big way.  Career progression is never linear or so I’ve heard …. 

If you never struggle, you never truly grow

[roger]

Since Prielipp was drafted, I will continue to believe that Prielipp and Canterino have the highest upside of any pitchers in the organization.  Hearing Seth's interview of Canterino is encouraging.  Hopefully, we will have similar news about Prielipp before spring training.  May take a couple year's longer to get to the big club, but still believe in this duo.

[Aerodeliria]

Any pitcher that has undergone TJ has to be given some slack. We simply don't know what we have and it might be tempting to throw in the towel if the 2024 if things start going south; however, it takes more than an off-season to gain back complete arm strength after undergoing TJ. I hope we maintain a bit of patience with Prielipp.

As for SWR, his mechanics can be tinkered with in the lab, but he has to be able to put the advice into practice, which is often easier said than done.

As for Salas, learning plate discipline is probably one of the hardest nuts to crack. It can be done, but it is a very slow process and some players never turn the corner.

[Doctor Wu]

On 10/27/2023 at 9:55 PM, Blyleven2011 said:

When will preilipp be able to start his season next year , does he need a year of rehab again following latest surgery   ????

Good question. What is the status of Prielipp at this point? Will he be pitching in 2024?

[jorgenswest]

Just looking at stats it is an interesting comparison between Festa and Woods- Richardson who made opposite lists. 

On 10/27/2023 at 7:15 AM, Nick Nelson said:

It's too soon to give up on him, but it might be time to start thinking hard about a future in the bullpen. (He completed six innings only three times in 22 starts at Triple-A.)

Festa never made up it to 6 innings.

On 10/27/2023 at 7:15 AM, Nick Nelson said:

Age has always been on SWR's side, but at 23, he's not THAT young by prospect standards anymore.

Festa is older.

In Festa’s comment you wrote about the high run scoring environment. That context was missing from Woods-Richardson’s write up. The Texas League has a high run scoring environment but the International League was higher. The strike out/walk ratio was also out of alignment between the two leagues where the IL’s rate was much lower. Adjustments to the or ozone were made the last month or so of the year. I don’t know if that improved the ratio.

Festa did have a good year. Was it so much better than Woods-Richardson that they are trending in such very opposite directions? Did one make a huge jump while the other a huge drop? Was the context of the IL so skewed that it really isn’t possible to normalize the data?

I think Woods-Richardson is earlier in his readiness for the major leagues while at a younger age than Festa. I expect they will be slotted as 7th and 8th starters and will be needed next year. I would rank them very close to each other in the Twins system.