The Fall Off: 3 Twins Prospects Whose Stock Dropped in 2023

Nobody is taking Salas in the Rule 5 draft and keeping him on their MLB roster for all of 2024. He doesn't play SS, is only 1 year younger than Noah Miller and hits far worse than Miller. 

SWR seems like he has one more year to turn things around, but he is quite a bit back now in the ‘25 future starter sweepstakes. He”s still young, but do pitchers who eventually make the bigs spend four complete years in AAA (which is where he’d be after ‘25)?  I’d like to think he might need a new home, but I seen to recall he’s already moved around quite a bit.  Here’s hoping he at least runs into some hot streaks and can be a spot starter over the next couple of years. However, at this point, the smart money would have to take the under on him being a definitive member of the rotation at any time over the next two years (and, therefore, maybe ever). Here’s hoping he figures it out.

Prielipp could be lower at this stage; he’s proven exactly nothing. Still he has promise. Question: do you prefer SWR with what he’s shown or the promise of Prielipp behind door #2?  IMHO, Nick has it right -  probably Prielipp.  Let’s see what happens in ‘24.

Some of us TDers thought at the time of the trade Salas would never make the bigs and third guy in the deal (sorry, I can’t recall his name off the top of my head) actually had more upside.  No reason to change that assessment after ‘23; Salas has a long way to go and lots of other players to climb over to ever see Target Field.  Hope that’s changes in ‘24 for him.

Too early to give up on Salas, that is for sure. It is highly doubtful that any team would give an MLB roster position to such an inexperienced, raw player. Salas could still rebound in a big way. He looked quite tentative at the plate. Once he got on base he felt more comfortable but the swing needs some work and Salas just needs to play for a couple of years to see where his career is headed.

Prielipp has had physical misfortune. I think he needs to be fully healed and built back up to game speed before pitching in game situations. The Twins will be careful with him. By this time next year we should have a better picture of how his arm has responded to intervention and whether Connor could be a good prospect with development. I'm not giving up on him.

Woods Richardson has certainly had his share of challenges being traded twice. He looks inconsistent from pitch to pitch and from inning to inning. However, Simeon is a big strong guy who has a number of pitches that do work at times. He still has more upside than a guy like Jordan Balazavic. I wonder if SWR becomes an add-on in a trade of big names in order to seal a deal, similar to how Jose Salas came to the Twins.

I'm still on Team SWR and believe in his talent. but 2024 will be a big year for him: either he figures it out as a starter, or he's going to be heading to the bullpen. Right now he's still arguably 7th on the depth chart for Twins starting pitching (assuming Gray and Maeda are gone and Varland doesn't move permanently into the bullpen), which is a position I would have felt better about a year ago. I think the control issues were his biggest problem last season; it'll be interesting to see if there might have been a mechanical flaw that they can iron out over the winter? He did finish the season in better shape, with 7 straight starts going 5 of better, but he also only had one game the entire season where he went more than 6. Saint Paul was a tough environment for pitchers though.

Prielipp was a risky pick, but it was worth a shot. Hopefully the Twins will be able to get him rehabbed and be able to see who he still might be as a pitcher before they have to make decisions on him via Rule 5. You have to push him down the ranks, but he was still a player worth taking a risk on.

Salas was always probably ranked a little too high? He's still really young, at least. I can't see him getting protected from the Rule 5 draft and there's seemingly no way he gets tapped. He's nowhere near ready for MLB and wouldn't even contribute much defensively.

If the three biggest fallers on a prospect chart are a guy with a significant injury, an A-ball guy who was something of a throw-in on a trade, and a AAA pitcher who has still thrown in the majors...I feel ok about the overall state of the minors.

Send the two to driveline , get them straightened out with different coaching and voices  ...

When will preilipp be able to start his season next year , does he need a year of rehab again following latest surgery   ???? 

As for driveline  , there should also be some current players that want to save and improve their careers going this winter  , larnach  for one and if healthy Miranda  , be ready to strike and hit the ball in spring training ....

2 hours ago, Nashvilletwin said:

SWR seems like he has one more year to turn things around, but he is quite a bit back now in the ‘25 future starter sweepstakes. He”s still young, but do pitchers who eventually make the bigs spend four complete years in AAA (which is where he’d be after ‘25)?  I’d like to think he might need a new home, but I seen to recall he’s already moved around quite a bit.  Here’s hoping he at least runs into some hot streaks and can be a spot starter over the next couple of years. However, at this point, the smart money would have to take the under on him being a definitive member of the rotation at any time over the next two years (and, therefore, maybe ever). Here’s hoping he figures it out.

Prielipp could be lower at this stage; he’s proven exactly nothing. Still he has promise. Question: do you prefer SWR with what he’s shown or the promise of Prielipp behind door #2?  IMHO, Nick has it right -  probably Prielipp.  Let’s see what happens in ‘24.

Some of us TDers thought at the time of the trade Salas would never make the bigs and third guy in the deal (sorry, I can’t recall his name off the top of my head) actually had more upside.  No reason to change that assessment after ‘23; Salas has a long way to go and lots of other players to climb over to ever see Target Field.  Hope that’s changes in ‘24 for him.

 

Byron Chourio - FCL

SWR's fastball is pretty awful. Maybe he needs to adjust the grip or something, but it has no rise or arm-side run; it is a very hittable 90mph pitch. His changeup does not drop either- he was scouted as a guy with a true four-pitch mix, but his top two pitches are not at an MLB level. 

Priellip dropping is meaningless to me.  Due to injury a player shouldn't drop.  Now it will come down to performance next year.  If he performs well,  he is one of our top options as a #1 or #2 SP and fyi he is a left hander.   Similar to Paddack,  to see what the true value is we need patience.  I am cautiously optimistic he pans out.  I agree with the other 2 on the list.  

Prielip is the exact same pitcher now as he was a year ago. One year older. One ranking or the other then is horribly inaccurate. On the other hand from a high ceiling aspect, the draft did add 4 shiny new highly rateable prospects to like. That is, until you don’t.

Salas should have been viewed as a high ceiling lottery ticket. His being ranked that high at the beginning of the year was yet again another rating mistake. 

Its quite possible this trio will bounce back in 2024 in a big way.  Career progression is never linear or so I’ve heard …. 

Since Prielipp was drafted, I will continue to believe that Prielipp and Canterino have the highest upside of any pitchers in the organization.  Hearing Seth's interview of Canterino is encouraging.  Hopefully, we will have similar news about Prielipp before spring training.  May take a couple year's longer to get to the big club, but still believe in this duo.

Any pitcher that has undergone TJ has to be given some slack. We simply don't know what we have and it might be tempting to throw in the towel if the 2024 if things start going south; however, it takes more than an off-season to gain back complete arm strength after undergoing TJ. I hope we maintain a bit of patience with Prielipp.

As for SWR, his mechanics can be tinkered with in the lab, but he has to be able to put the advice into practice, which is often easier said than done.

As for Salas, learning plate discipline is probably one of the hardest nuts to crack. It can be done, but it is a very slow process and some players never turn the corner.

On 10/27/2023 at 9:55 PM, Blyleven2011 said:

When will preilipp be able to start his season next year , does he need a year of rehab again following latest surgery   ????

Good question. What is the status of Prielipp at this point? Will he be pitching in 2024?

Just looking at stats it is an interesting comparison between Festa and Woods- Richardson who made opposite lists. 

On 10/27/2023 at 7:15 AM, Nick Nelson said:

It's too soon to give up on him, but it might be time to start thinking hard about a future in the bullpen. (He completed six innings only three times in 22 starts at Triple-A.)

Festa never made up it to 6 innings.

On 10/27/2023 at 7:15 AM, Nick Nelson said:

Age has always been on SWR's side, but at 23, he's not THAT young by prospect standards anymore.

Festa is older.

In Festa’s comment you wrote about the high run scoring environment. That context was missing from Woods-Richardson’s write up. The Texas League has a high run scoring environment but the International League was higher. The strike out/walk ratio was also out of alignment between the two leagues where the IL’s rate was much lower. Adjustments to the or ozone were made the last month or so of the year. I don’t know if that improved the ratio.

Festa did have a good year. Was it so much better than Woods-Richardson that they are trending in such very opposite directions? Did one make a huge jump while the other a huge drop? Was the context of the IL so skewed that it really isn’t possible to normalize the data?

I think Woods-Richardson is earlier in his readiness for the major leagues while at a younger age than Festa. I expect they will be slotted as 7th and 8th starters and will be needed next year. I would rank them very close to each other in the Twins system.