Rays 5, Twins 4: Twins Rally Falls Short, End in Ninth-Inning Heartbreaker

[wsnydes]

1 minute ago, jorgenswest said:

Julien has the skill to be better than that number.

If in his previous at bat he had even just moved the runner over with a ground out I stick with him. It was those two previous at bats where he needs to get the message that they need him to compete when there are two strikes. He has the skill to fight those close pitches off. I hope we see a better Julien come October. Maybe a message was received today. If it is me and the manager sends out his weakest hitter to pinch hit for me in the 9th it is going to shake me up quite a bit.

I tend to agree that he's got the skills to be better than that.  It's staggeringly bad.  

Even if it wasn't a message, it would seem Rocco was playing the percentages, even if miniscule in difference.  But I agree with you that that would definitely shake me too.

[shabbos1]

Pinch hitting Velazquez in the 9th was terrible particularly since it could have been avoided by not pinch hitting Solano for Kirilloff in the 5th(!) inning.  Rocco knew more RHPs would be pitching later in the game and did it anyway.  If this was a dress rehearsal for playoff games a few weeks from now, then ... yikes.

[bighat]

This is what happens against better teams and it's what will happen in the playoffs. To be honest I'm pretty sure they'll be swept, but if they do win a game it'll go just like this series: Twins will lose the opener handily, maybe win Game 2 if the other team's bats get cold in a 2-1 squeaker, then lose game 3.

This is how it's gone all year, why should anyone think it'll be different in October? You think Buxton and Paddack going to help? 

[IndianaTwin]

To add to the Julien discussion, his nine hits against LHP includes eight singles. That speaks of an outfield defense playing shallow in that game situation, further lessening the likelihood of scoring the runner from second. 

Pinch hitting Vazquez led to bringing in a righty as expected. While Vazquez’s OPS vs RHP is pathetic this season, it’s actually .667 for his career. That’s significantly better than Julien vs.LHP. 

[TWTwinsFan]

How many times we lose two straight when Pablo and Sonny pitched,they are our best two starters, and we were not able to win games when they started.

[IndianaTwin]

10 minutes ago, shabbos1 said:

Pinch hitting Velazquez in the 9th was terrible particularly since it could have been avoided by not pinch hitting Solano for Kirilloff in the 5th(!) inning.  Rocco knew more RHPs would be pitching later in the game and did it anyway.  If this was a dress rehearsal for playoff games a few weeks from now, then ... yikes.

The same chart above shows Kirilloff being only slightly less atrocious than Julien against LHP. If you’re going to pinch hit for Kirilloff at that point, you have to take defense into account, so Solanonmakes sense. And if you’re going to pinch hit with four innings left, you don’t burn the catcher. 

[Blyleven2011]

40 minutes ago, Cave Bear said:

Why do they keep sending Jax out there? We haven't seen this type of futility since the Ron Davis days. When a RELIEVER has double digit losses it's time to try out someone from the minors or even possibly drop a starter to the bullpen. Keuchel or Ober or something - anything!

You must not have watched last season when Pagan was our Ron Davis  ....

[rv78]

14 minutes ago, shabbos1 said:

Pinch hitting Velazquez in the 9th was terrible particularly since it could have been avoided by not pinch hitting Solano for Kirilloff in the 5th(!) inning.  Rocco knew more RHPs would be pitching later in the game and did it anyway.  If this was a dress rehearsal for playoff games a few weeks from now, then ... yikes.

This comment speaks volumes to Rocco's ability to manage games effectively. Over-use of your bench early will cost you games late. He does it all the time. As for Jax, he's been consistantly inconsistant often enough NOT to be relied upon in a high leverage late game situation. I believe Funderburk was available and probably would have been a better option based on how Jax has done this season. But as with most every decision made with this team, the veterans not matter how bad they are, get the opportunities over the kids.

[rwilfong86]

When you pitch Jax you can't really expect any different. 10 losses now. 

[rwilfong86]

38 minutes ago, bighat said:

This is what happens against better teams and it's what will happen in the playoffs. To be honest I'm pretty sure they'll be swept, but if they do win a game it'll go just like this series: Twins will lose the opener handily, maybe win Game 2 if the other team's bats get cold in a 2-1 squeaker, then lose game 3.

This is how it's gone all year, why should anyone think it'll be different in October? You think Buxton and Paddack going to help? 

Their only hope is getting Texas in the first round

[mikelink45]

2 hours ago, wsnydes said:

Yes it does.  Correa was the only other PH option, if that was what they were going to do. Sure, he could not have at all, but this at least explains why it was Vazquez and not Correa.

I'm not defending anything here.  I'm simply relaying the info.

If Correa had a uniform on, he could pinch hit.  Ridiculous reasoning.  

[tony&rodney]

1 hour ago, jorgenswest said:

Julien has the skill to be better than that number.

If in his previous at bat he had even just moved the runner over with a ground out I stick with him. It was those two previous at bats where he needs to get the message that they need him to compete when there are two strikes. He has the skill to fight those close pitches off. I hope we see a better Julien come October. Maybe a message was received today. If it is me and the manager sends out his weakest hitter to pinch hit for me in the 9th it is going to shake me up quite a bit.

This is exactly what I was thinking. Julien is really good about not swinging out of the zone and taking close pitches, some of which are strikes. However, the 3-2 pitch was fully in the zone and Farmer was not stealing but going on a run and hit play. In that case Julien must swing. The failure is cause for him to be pinch hit for in the ninth inning, even by Vazquez. Julien needs to take the sequence of events to heart and reply appropriately.

[wsnydes]

20 minutes ago, mikelink45 said:

If Correa had a uniform on, he could pinch hit.  Ridiculous reasoning.  

Surely he's the first guy in the history of baseball to have a uniform on and be unavailable to play...

With a comfortable lead in the division and a magic number of 9, they can afford to let him rest.

[stringer bell]

I attended today’s game and it was as beautiful outside and comfortable as anyone could ask for. From my view in section 209, it was entertaining and in the end Tampa took advantage of Twins’ mistakes more than the Twins were able to take advantage of TB miscues.
 

I guess a 7.5 game lead allows Rocco to give Correa a complete day off. Saving the best pinch-hitting option (Solano) for later might have given the Twins a better chance in the ninth. Having 14 position players really doesn’t allow for pinch hitting all the time for Wallner, Kirilloff and Julien with Correa unavailable. Kepler has apparently graduated from this status. 
 

Jax looked really good until he didn’t. I speculated he, like Pagán, could go one of two ways—challenge him or try to trick him. He threw a middle-middle nothing pitch which resulted in a predictable outcome. 

[mnfireman]

1 hour ago, wsnydes said:

With a comfortable lead in the division and a magic number of 9, they can afford to let him rest.

Maybe you can also afford to let the younger players (i.e. the future) have a few ABs against same handed pitching...

[JD-TWINS]

7 hours ago, rickyriolo said:

Jax looks tired He needs a couple days off

First 2 outs on 6 pitches……..he gets behind & then gives in, not necessarily planned, the vast majority of the time he has electric stuff & is successful. Ends up with something spinning in the middle of the zone and it gets tagged.

Happening too often lately.

[Aerodeliria]

For a hitter who has a lot of upside, such as Julien, I would rather see him hit often against lefties--especially in this final month. The platooning thing has always bugged me. (This is exactly how Arraez was treated in MN--lest you have forgotten...he's just not that good hitting lefties--.328 against lefties this year. Miami's approach? Every day, no matter who is on the mound...). If Julien is going to become the hitter that everyone believes he can become, he needs to hit in those situations IMHO, and why not start now in the final month of the season when the stakes are a bit lower? It is especially difficult for rookie hitters to adjust to pitchers in the 'bigs'--even more difficult when a lefty is facing a lefty and a righty facing a righty (although the latter is probably a bit easier due to sheer numbers). You can say, let's fix it in BP or against the machine or in the fall league. It's just not the same. He will only get better with opportunities in the actual games.  He may fail frequently but his upside is worth gambling on.

[BH67]

47th comment on this post, I believe. Not one heretofore lauding the Twins' grit today in a heavyweight bout against a genuine world championship contender -- or at least not touting it above slamming Rocco's Vazquez decision or being negative about Jax, despite his responding well after a previous bad outing and missing a 1-2-3 9th by one strike due to a perennial AL MVP candidate. Bullpen was great today, especially Floro and Pagan getting out of two-on, no-out situations unscathed.

My proudest moment of today was Kyle Farmer's strikeout in the 5th -- which required 16 pitches and set the stage for the tying rally. Yes, one can point out could've and should've in a close game like this. But even getting back in this game from 0-4 was impressive. And they'll learn from today when October rolls around.

There is a legitimate comparison in Minnesota sports history for these Twins: Bud Grant's second Vikings team in 1968. Not yet good enough to beat the elite, but clawing and scrapping fearlessly in the effort. Proud of them today, and they have plenty of motivation to thrash the White Sox the next four days..

[Doctor Wu]

Well, it was a close game, One thing that Rocco DID do well was use  Stevenson for a pinch runner after Luplow walked. Stevenson, of course, stole second, but was unfortunately stranded at that point. Still ... that could have ended up being a BIG move/play had we been able to bring in the run. 

[chinmusic]

11 hours ago, rwilfong86 said:

Their only hope is getting Texas in the first round

Gimme Toronto. The Jays are reeling right now, and look extremely vulnerable.

I watched the condensed version of their matchup with Texas last night, 10-0 (!) Rangers at the Rogers centre.

At the end of the clip the camera panned on Berrios in the dugout. I interpreted his expression as "gee, I wish I was still on the Twins."

[Patzky]

13 hours ago, jorgenswest said:

After Julien's previous at bat I would have had a hard time sending him out there in the 9th. 

4-4 game. No outs. Farmer on first. 3-2 count. Twins send Farmer. Julien can't take a close pitch much less a strike in that situation. He needs to get that runner into scoring position. Julien strikes out looking and Farmer is caught stealing. Second time in the game he was caught looking at strike 3. The first time was after the pitcher is on the ropes having given up home runs to the last two batters. He needs to be more competitive there and fight off a close pitch. Keep the pitcher on the ropes. He looks at far too many called strike threes. 

The options were awful in the 9th inning. Do you send Julien and his OPS of 423 (13 strike outs and 0 walks) against left handed pitching. I was sure a strike out caught looking would happen in that case. Do you send Vazquez and his 595 OPS against right handed pitching? It's a lose-lose situation here.

The choice isn't clear cut to me. In most games I probably hope on Julien but not after his previous at bat. 

Seems like Julien pulls a Mitch McConnell and freezes at the most inopportune times.

[MinnInPa]

16 hours ago, rickyriolo said:

Jax looks tired He needs a couple days off

there is no reason whatsoever for Jax to throw that meatball pitch . totally inexcusable. right down the pike to a power hitter...that pitch should have been a slider outside..in the dirt..fastball off the plate ..anything but right down the middle. the guy has 10 losses as a reliever !! how is he still in the majors ??? i trust no one in this pen at all. 

[DJL44]

14 hours ago, jorgenswest said:

After Julien's previous at bat I would have had a hard time sending him out there in the 9th. 

4-4 game. No outs. Farmer on first. 3-2 count. Twins send Farmer. Julien can't take a close pitch much less a strike in that situation. He needs to get that runner into scoring position.

A walk is a great way to get the runner in scoring position. With 3 balls a close pitch has an OBP of .500. I agree that you have to swing at strikes but expanding the zone with 3 balls is a terrible idea.

[wabene]

12 hours ago, mikelink45 said:

If Correa had a uniform on, he could pinch hit.  Ridiculous reasoning.  

In a stretch run with a comfortable lead it would be ridiculous not to rest Correa and his bum foot. He needs more than one day off. 

[jorgenswest]

2 minutes ago, DJL44 said:

A walk is a great way to get the runner in scoring position. With 3 balls a close pitch has an OBP of .500. I agree that you have to swing at strikes but expanding the zone with 3 balls is a terrible idea.

It was a clear strike. I regret writing close.

[joefish]

Jax needs to learn what pitches of his end up in the cheap seats. Quit throwing those with two strikes. 

I wanna like him. But his losses are piling up. And they hurt. Bad two-strike mistakes. Too often.

[John Belinski]

16 hours ago, LewFordLives said:

Can we please end the Keuchel experiment? It's been a heartwarming story, and he's had some good moments, but he shouldn't be starting for a team that's trying to make it to the post-season. Ober is the better pitcher.

He pitched Ok for a few games, but he is not a good starting pitcher. His good years are gone.

[Linus]

15 hours ago, jorgenswest said:

After Julien's previous at bat I would have had a hard time sending him out there in the 9th. 

4-4 game. No outs. Farmer on first. 3-2 count. Twins send Farmer. Julien can't take a close pitch much less a strike in that situation. He needs to get that runner into scoring position. Julien strikes out looking and Farmer is caught stealing. Second time in the game he was caught looking at strike 3. The first time was after the pitcher is on the ropes having given up home runs to the last two batters. He needs to be more competitive there and fight off a close pitch. Keep the pitcher on the ropes. He looks at far too many called strike threes. 

The options were awful in the 9th inning. Do you send Julien and his OPS of 423 (13 strike outs and 0 walks) against left handed pitching. I was sure a strike out caught looking would happen in that case. Do you send Vazquez and his 595 OPS against right handed pitching? It's a lose-lose situation here.

The choice isn't clear cut to me. In most games I probably hope on Julien but not after his previous at bat. 

This. The guy won’t swing the bat. The strike em out throw em out was ridiculous. He has to swing the bat there as Farmer isn’t trying to outright steal. The biggest problem in this game wasn’t a manager decision it was Max whiffing on a relatively routine fly ball. 

[IaBeanCounter]

1 hour ago, Linus said:

This. The guy won’t swing the bat. The strike em out throw em out was ridiculous. He has to swing the bat there as Farmer isn’t trying to outright steal. The biggest problem in this game wasn’t a manager decision it was Max whiffing on a relatively routine fly ball. 

Did Julien know Farmer was running?   I suspect that he did as Rocco may have put on the play to encourage Julien to expand his strike zone as he seems to have numerous called 3rd strikes.  In regards to Kepler, has there been any explanation as to why he botched the play (lost in sun, lost perception when going from sun to shade, miss judged how far it would carry, etc.)?

[mikelink45]

2 hours ago, wabene said:

In a stretch run with a comfortable lead it would be ridiculous not to rest Correa and his bum foot. He needs more than one day off. 

He was suited up.  Did he take batting practice?