Call the Sheriff: What Can Chris Paddack Provide In a Bullpen Role?

[Lou Hennessy]

It’s been a minute since Chris Paddack’s name was anywhere near a Twins’ lineup card. The tall righty went under the knife in early-2022, and has largely been out of sight and out of mind for many. But now that he’s  knee-deep in an official rehab assignment, it might be time for fans to get ready for a new sheriff in town for the playoffs. 

The infamous Taylor Rogers-for-Emilio Pagan trade left many bewildered at the time, and especially so when the former thrived with his new team and the latter scuffled mightily. But the third player in that swap (not counting the throw-ins of Brent Rooker and Brayan Medina) was what drove the deal past the finish line for the Twins. 
Chris Paddack represented a solid upgrade to the back-end of the Twins rotation, but his injury history kept his trade value at a reasonable level (hence the modest return of an impending free agent reliever and a player that was on the outside-looking-in when it came to the outfield depth chart). It turns out that was for good reason, as the then-26-year-old required a second Tommy John surgery after just five starts. 
Since then, Paddack and the Twins used his final year of team control to rehab from his injury and to nail down a buy-low contract extension. With his free agency pushed back to 2025, he is able to map out a path to becoming the hopeful rotation cornerstone that the club envisioned upon acquiring him. But in the meantime, could he be a useful weapon out of the bullpen come late-September, and hopefully into the postseason?

While it’s by no means a sure thing at this point, this plan definitely feels like a concept that the Twins desperately want to work. Whether that’s with Paddack or other traditional starters such as Louie Varland or potentially Kenta Maeda, the club seems to like the idea of having a starter let it fly in a relief role for the playoffs. 
With that being the ultimate goal for Paddack as he started his rehab assignment, his debut performance with class Low-A Fort Myers surely gave the club a glimmer of much-needed optimism. In that brief outing on September 6th, he threw two ⅔ innings, giving up two earned runs on two hits and a pair of walks. That on its own certainly isn’t a game-changing performance, but it’s encouraging that he got four strikeouts, and five swinging-misses in 52 total pitches. For a first taste at real action since May of last year, the Twins will gladly take those results, especially given the promise of some of his numbers under the hood. 
In that outing, his fastball averaged 94.6 MPH (topping out at 96.3 MPH) and he got six swings on his changeup, which is widely regarded as his best offering. The fastball velocity is particularly eyebrow-raising given the fact that he topped out around 93.5 MPH pre-surgery last season. Was it a hot gun, or was Paddack reaching back for a little extra oomph knowing he doesn’t need to shoot for a starter’s workload? The Twins are hoping it’s the latter, and that he can provide that excellent fastball-changeup combo that looked very effective in his brief 2022 campaign. 
In those five starts, Paddack racked up adequate strikeout totals (21.5%) while limiting walks to just 0.8 BB/9. That led to a very strong 10.0 K/BB ratio, which was the best of his career. He also didn’t allow a single home run in those 22 innings pitched. While that’s unsustainable, the Twins are hoping the relief-version of their hurler can be similarly homer-resistant. 

https://cdn.jwplayer.com/previews/LhGuBE4I

It should be noted, as Twins Daily’s Matthew Lenz said in his recent video, it’s likely that Paddack would be tasked with lower-leverage innings. But that has proven to be a vital cog in the operation given the lack of quality depth to the club’s bullpen so far this year. 
He could even go a couple innings at a time, theoretically, which might be an on-paper improvement over someone like Josh Winder, Brent Headrick and Cole Sands who have been trying to fill that role so far with inconsistent results. 
At the end of the day, it’ll take a few more positive developments in Paddack’s rehab assignment before he could lock in as a post-season reinforcement. 
It’s easy to envision the upside if all goes well. Paddack coming into a game to let loose for a shorter outing could be a welcome addition to the postseason bullpen. If effective, he could be someone that locks in for the middle innings of a game if a starter departs early. 
Let’s hope he still has his old hat with the curved brim and his pair of six-shooters. The Twins could use their old sheriff back, even if he’s in a new role. 

What do you think? Can Chris Paddack be a useful relief weapon for a potential playoff run? Do you think he still has what it takes to be sheriff? Let us know your thoughts in the comment section down below. 
 

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[roger]

Have my fingers crossed and a prayer on my lips that this young man can get back in the saddle for the Twins before the year ends.

[tarheeltwinsfan]

Good, well written, informative and quite timely article. Thanks Lou.

[jimbo92107]

I saw Chris Paddack when he first came up for the San Diego Padres. I was immediately impressed with his stuff (think Joe Ryan plus 3 mph on each pitch). I was sure he was bound for superstar status. He even appeared to have an easy, throw-all-day motion. Boy, was I wrong about that!

Now, after two TJ surgeries, can Paddack's arm survive the intense stress of throwing a baseball at high velocities? Did Twins coaches figure out what it was about his mechanics that caused the problem, or was it simply genetics? Is Paddack now  doing exercises to prevent further damage?

We'll see some answers pretty soon. The Twins would be most fortunate to get an arm of Paddack's magnitude in their bullpen. 

[WallySzczerbiak]

Quote

The infamous Taylor Rogers-for-Emilio Pagan trade left many bewildered at the time, and especially so when the former thrived with his new team and the latter scuffled mightily.

Taylor Rogers posted a 4.76 ERA last year. I know ERA is an imperfect metric for assessing performance - especially of relievers - but the prevailing idea amongst this fanbase that his absence resulted in a significant downgrade to the Twins bullpen in 2022 is absurd.

[Blyleven2011]

His control is what to keep an eye on , difficult for a pitcher coming back from TJ surgery to have good control  , but paddock might be an exception  and relief might be perfect for him to finish out the 2023 season  .

If he can return to form and not give up homeruns and walks , I say give him a shot on the roster , he has more experience than , sands , winder or Headrick ...

[mikelink45]

I have no expectations.  I need to see him ramp up his rehab before I have confidence in him.

[Craig Arko]

That would be outstanding and unexpected. It does look like some of the starters will be in the pen come October, and the staff could look significantly different from the regular season.

[Trov]

I personally would not want a guy who was not used to pen coming into playoffs after rehab to try and pitch important innings in playoffs. 

[Lou Hennessy]

1 hour ago, WallySzczerbiak said:

Taylor Rogers posted a 4.76 ERA last year. I know ERA is an imperfect metric for assessing performance - especially of relievers - but the prevailing idea amongst this fanbase that his absence resulted in a significant downgrade to the Twins bullpen in 2022 is absurd.

Spot on. I was more referring to the first month and a half of last season when Rogers converted something like 13 straight saves with an ERA under 2.50, and Pagan was starting to struggle. You're very right, though. The bullpen's issues extended far beyond the Pagan-Rogers swap.

[Karbo]

If he can handle bullpen work in the minors, give it a try. What is there to lose? Hopefully, we get thru the 1st series on the strength of the starters, hopefully getting into or thru 7. Not a lot of innings to cover after then. I'm more concerned about Jax right now.

[old nurse]

Paddocks average fastball velocity with San Diego was 94.1, 94.1, 94.9 so his fastball returned to what it was. 

[Road trip]

45 minutes ago, Trov said:

I personally would not want a guy who was not used to pen coming into playoffs after rehab to try and pitch important innings in playoffs. 

I think it's a longshot.  IF, big IF, Paddock is ready to pitch in the majors in about 10 days we can talk.  Then he could actually face live MLB hitters for a few innings this year prior to the playoffs.  That seems a very optimistic and aggressive timeline.. 

I'm just hoping he can be a competent and healthy #5 starter next April.  If we get that much I'll call it a win.

[Althebum82]

Useful?  Not particularly, other than eating a few innings here or there in the last few games strictly for the purpose of reacquainting him the skill level of big league batters again.

Sherriff?  Definitely not.  The Twins will likely see their best return on investment with him by doing what they can to build his confidence but not expect anything beyond Barnie Fife -level duties until next season (unless maybe a little winter ball may make sense for him).  

But it most certainly is encouraging to have him come as far along the recovery path as he presently is.

[LA Vikes Fan]

1 hour ago, Lou Hennessy said:

Spot on. I was more referring to the first month and a half of last season when Rogers converted something like 13 straight saves with an ERA under 2.50, and Pagan was starting to struggle. You're very right, though. The bullpen's issues extended far beyond the Pagan-Rogers swap.

Interestingly enough, Pagan and Taylor are both worth 0.9 WAR with very similar stats this season. Taylor - 6-4, 3.00 ERA. 1.167 WHIP., 1 save, first year of a 3 year, $33m deal with SF, no longer with SD, left as a free agent. Pagan - 5-2, 3.38 ERA, 0.987 WHIP, 0 saves, 1 year $3.5m deal, free agent 2024. Rooker also no longer with San Diego, Medina in FCL (i.e. lottery ticket). One could convincingly argue that the Twins lost the trade in 2022 but are the big winners in 2023 since Pagan is here and performing, while the Twins weren't going to pay Rogers $33m over 3 years so he would be gone. With Paddack coming back, could be a very good trade for 2024 for the Twins. 

Just goes to show you that one shouldn't evaluate a trade (or a draft pick) for at least a year or so.  

[Jocko87]

When is his next appearance?  It's been very quiet since the one rehab spot and with that season over we should see some movement?

With three weeks left its getting late soon for any confidence for the playoffs.  We need to see something probably this week?  If he can come up and take a few innings of load off the rest of the pen so they can rest up he will have contributed to the playoff run. 

[wabene]

56 minutes ago, Althebum82 said:

Useful?  Not particularly, other than eating a few innings here or there in the last few games strictly for the purpose of reacquainting him the skill level of big league batters again.

Sherriff?  Definitely not.  The Twins will likely see their best return on investment with him by doing what they can to build his confidence but not expect anything beyond Barnie Fife -level duties until next season (unless maybe a little winter ball may make sense for him).  

But it most certainly is encouraging to have him come as far along the recovery path as he presently is.

Ah wait a sec, didn't Barney Fife carry that show?

[SotaSports in NM]

3 hours ago, WallySzczerbiak said:

...but the prevailing idea amongst this fanbase that his absence resulted in a significant downgrade to the Twins bullpen in 2022 is absurd.

I have a hard time disagreeing with anything you say, if for no other reason than your username.

[Battle ur tail off]

2 hours ago, Jocko87 said:

When is his next appearance?  It's been very quiet since the one rehab spot and with that season over we should see some movement?

With three weeks left its getting late soon for any confidence for the playoffs.  We need to see something probably this week?  If he can come up and take a few innings of load off the rest of the pen so they can rest up he will have contributed to the playoff run. 

They won't use him for anything. IMO, it would be really foolish to count on him to give you anything that is playoff worthy, or honestly, even worthy enough to get ML innnings.

[Brandon]

I guess he will need 2-3 more rehab appearances and 2-3 appearances in the majors before we can make a fair decision if he can handle pitching in the playoffs.  We should know this by the last day of the regular season if we are lucky.

[tony&rodney]

FWIW, Paddack finished his start last week with two outs and two on base. The relief pitcher gave up a three run home run, thus the two runs given up by Paddack. We cannot know what Paddack offers until he has appeared in several games for the Twins. which seems unlikely.

[DocBauer]

All hands on deck? Yeah, that's a good approach to have. And I have high hopes that Paddack will be amongst the Twins top 7 SP in 2024. Is that 15 GS or 25 GS is TBD. But, IMO, his best case scenario is to have a great rehab, and MAYBE throw a few IP at the ML, and IDEALLY, be strong enough to start the last game of the season. That rests someone an extra day, allows for a probable bullpen game, and offer a reward to end his 2023 before instructs begin. But I just don't see any logical reason to take a guy coming off his second TJ, who's just his control back, and then ask him to throw as hard as he can for an inning or two in the playoffs. Sounds risky and counter productive for 2024.

"All hands on deck, to me, is Varland getting temporary time in the pen to finish the season, which they are doing now. It's working and hoping like hell Stewart actually IS feeling great and ready for a rehab to get ready. It's giving Funderburk, a LH kid with pretty good stuff and a mostly 2yr tour in the pen to see if he might be counted on in the middle innings. Forgetting the 1st series where you only need 3 SP, if the Twins advance, they will have to decide on Maeda or Ober as the 4th starter. The other would seem an obvious move to the pen. Ober was recently rested about 10 days and made a great start at AAA. His "demotion" was to get rest and monitor his IP. He's still part of the playoff picture past the 1st round. And Keuchel might just slide to the pen as a middle option from the port side.

Just don't see a need to push Paddack to do anything at this point other than keep throwing and get ready for instructs and 2024.

[Jocko87]

8 hours ago, Jocko87 said:

When is his next appearance?  It's been very quiet since the one rehab spot and with that season over we should see some movement?

With three weeks left its getting late soon for any confidence for the playoffs.  We need to see something probably this week?  If he can come up and take a few innings of load off the rest of the pen so they can rest up he will have contributed to the playoff run. 

There’s the answer.
 

https://x.com/windsurgeict/status/1701372666815389762?s=61&t=yidxjkE21iQzCNapDBvNPg 

[saviking]

We need to wait and see if Paddock can regain his form in AAA before the end of the season, but yes, we could use middle relief help.

Wouldn't it be nice if we had 1.5 WAR, 24 home runs in 410 at bats Rooker as our right-handed left fielder instead of LupLow .. 

[Jeff K]

On 9/11/2023 at 11:41 AM, Trov said:

I personally would not want a guy who was not used to pen coming into playoffs after rehab to try and pitch important innings in playoffs. 

I think the idea is to use him in low leverage/mop up situations.  It's important to have better options for that rather than using our best guys or...position players.

[Jocko87]

15 hours ago, Jocko87 said:

There’s the answer.
 

https://x.com/windsurgeict/status/1701372666815389762?s=61&t=yidxjkE21iQzCNapDBvNPg 

I’m going to try to sneak out and see the first couple innings.  Hopefully I can get a decent in person review.  

[Fatbat]

The Sheriff is pitching today for the surge and he is heading to the twin cities after that. He has stated that he is 100% ready for the varsity.  I would bet that he is a lock for the post season long reliever role. Varland will also be on the pen. He is throwing 100mph heat.  Since we will only be 3-4 starters deep. The whole middle relief issues will be left off the post season roster. 
Starters

Lopez, Gray and Ryan

RP’s

Meada, Ober, Kuekel, Paddack, Varland, Duran, Pagan, Funderburk and Thielbar. 
Jax if they carry 13. 

 

[wabene]

If Paddack is as ready as he says let's toss him in Funderburk style and leverage the hell outta that cowboy!

[USAFChief]

I strongly doubt Paddack is if any use this postseason.

 

[Jocko87]

7 hours ago, Jocko87 said:

I’m going to try to sneak out and see the first couple innings.  Hopefully I can get a decent in person review.  

Live look in from Wichita. 

Chris Paddack is in fact a major league pitcher. A very tired one but he certainly looks the part. He sat comfortably at 95 and hit 97 but it felt like he got more tired noticeably each inning.  Man among boys first two innings, then some foul balls, then some hard hit. 

I wasn't able to stay for Alcala but it doesn't look great from the box score.